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TaiPan

TaiPan
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  • Requiem For Fallen Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
    It is always prudent to advise monitoring stocks in your portfolio, but how to know in advance that a company is likely to suspend or reduce its dividend? Are most reductions/cessations of dividends not sudden events, precipitating a sudden plunge in stock price?
    Mar 30 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions For March 2014 [View article]
    What IS David Fish's site, please? I am looking for his Excel spreadshet with all the Dividend Champions on it -- for my 3 year-old son to grow into!! :-)
    Mar 26 07:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Top Tactical Portfolios Based On 29 Asset Allocation Approaches [View article]
    The link to the report by Butler et al. is broken. I'd love to understand more about portfolio #8, i.e. Adaptive Allocation.
    Feb 27 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Top Tactical Portfolios Based On 29 Asset Allocation Approaches [View article]
    Even if one made 10 changes per month, i.e. 10 sales and 10 buys, that's 20 transactions at maybe $6 per transaction at many discount brokers = $120. I am guessing that the benefit of re-balancing monthly versus only quarterly would outweigh a mere $120 expense.

    Taxes are a consideration, true, but the gains crystallized each year would be almost equal with quarterly and monthly re-balancing.
    Feb 26 05:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Beauty Of Credit Spreads [View article]
    I couldn't see much useful detail in the article. Where's the how-to detail?
    Sep 27 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drilling Down On Volatility Decay [View article]
    Don't misunderstand me: I got the point of the math.

    My point was to take away a practical tip from the academic discussion. You may be right that it is difficult to borrow shares to short an inverse ETF. That's what my broker (Schwab) says about SH (the inverse of SPY).

    But if it were possible to short, the very decay you underline and explain would work to make a short position in SH outperform a long position in SPY.

    So, the challenge is to find a liquid ETF that is the inverse of a popular index ETF and short it.

    You point out that inverse ETFs should not be long-term investment because of the decay. My point is that shorting those inverse ETFs should indeed be long-term investments precisely BECAUSE of the decay.
    Sep 8 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Chart Of The Day: S&P 500 [View article]
    My asking a question, asking someone for the facts that underpin his (so far unsupported) statements, is not challenging or rebutting the statements. It is simply asking for the underlying facts so I can examine them myself, and not be forced to swallow whole a point of view that may or may not make sense.

    This was supposed to be a discussion, an exchange facts and and opinions, not a high school debate where the goal is to win at all costs, where sneering and jeering take the place of impartial of logic.

    You have made a lot of points that seem valid, at first glance. I say "at first glance" because it's going to take a while before I can bring myself to consider your points carefully. Why? Because you seem incapable of arguing without sneering and belittling anyone who doesn't appear to agree with you. Normally one leaves this type of schoolboy taunting behind when one graduates to university.

    And you're phony. You pretend to apologize for making fun of my position when clearly you are not sorry at all -- or else you would have edited your comments before publishing them.

    You can't hope to start a serious discussion with a patronizing and scornful attitude. No matter how brilliant your points my be, few people who value their time will stop to bother with you. I certainly won't.
    Sep 8 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drilling Down On Volatility Decay [View article]

    I am late to this party; my invitation must have been lost in the mail, or slated for Saturday delivery along with the Pizzeria flyers.

    I am not a mathematician, and you mathos would have a fun time watching my eyes cross if you were explaining this stuff to me in person.

    What I look for is a practical tip for making money. If inverse ETFs (not just the 2X and 3X ones but the 1X inverses as well) lose money to decay (whatever the cause of the decay), then why not just short them instead of going long the regular ETFs?
    Sep 7 07:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding Russell Rejects: A Smart Summer Strategy For Small Caps [View article]
    Sorry, but I scanned the article twice, and still am not sure: do you go long or short the deletions? At some points the author seems to say that these deleted stocks are good value plays (i.e. go long), but at others the selling pressure as they are deleted from the index, plus the fact that "losers normally keep losing" suggests that we should short the stocks.

    Whether we should be buying or shorting these stocks, to seems to me best to do it before the index makes its adjustments. But how to identify the stocks in advance? Does the Russell announce ahead of time?
    Jun 30 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    Ah, you have a charming way of making a point, Gunzo.
    Jun 1 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    I find some articles underlining the risks in today's market to be articulate, but ultimately useless as an investment guide. Had I gone to cash a few months ago, in response to earlier well-argued warnings, I would have missed out on some serious profits.

    The guy walking the pavement with a sign saying "The World is at an end!" will eventually be right. But when?

    Contrarians are trying to predict market direction just as much as bulls and bears are trying to predict. No one can be right all the time, and no investor can know which pundit (the bull, the bear, or the contrarian) will be right during the next few months. Most investors will bail out of a particular strategy if it does not bear fruit within several months, so if the prediction does not come true fairly quickly, the investor will lose interest and faith in the writer.

    Me, I put my faith in no writer, no matter how articulate. I let market forces dictate my strategy. I've been getting more conservative (accumulating cash) as the market gets higher, not because I am predicting a major correction tomorrow, or next month (I can't do that accurately), but because investor complacency has reduced option premiums below the point I want to write them.

    If this is a different way of arriving at the same investment decision to go gradually to cash, so be it. But at least I don't have to trust my errant instincts, or someone else's instincts. They are fallible to the extreme.
    May 30 10:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed Directly Subsidizes Corporate Profits And Why The Game Is Over [View article]
    I admit I did not read all the comments. After about 52 of them (or so it seemed) I gave up waiting for concrete suggestions about where to invest. If stocks and bonds will dive, and cash is subject to devaluation, what is a body to do?

    The author is shorting stock ETFs, and Japanese bonds. Are we all to follow suit? Is nothing solid any more?
    May 24 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oncothyreon A Speculative Buy [View article]
    This stock seems to stagger from one disappointment to another disappointment. Is there really a point to hanging on?
    May 17 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oncothyreon (ONTY -20.7%) tanks today after presenting data as ASCO that showed Phase III trials of its investigational MUC1 antigen-specific cancer immunotherapy L-BLP25 didn't meet its primary objective. The trial was conducted by Merck Serono, a division of Merck (MRK -0.7%), under a license agreement with ONTY[View news story]
    But is it the death knell for ONTY? Should I give my shares as a birthday present to someone I don't really like? :-)
    May 16 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
    How does an observation that gold is not doing well -- a simple fact -- suggest to you that I am "freaking out" about gold?

    The end of QE might not be "dollar positive". It might mean just that there is no more dollar negative, but too late to save the dollar from a down slide. The dollar so far has been propped up because it remains the world's reserve currency; there is no valid alternative. But if countries start bypassing the need for any reserve currency at all, if they start transacting in their own currencies (as I read several are doing now, including China), then watch out below for the US dollar.

    And watch out below for assets based on US dollars -- mainly stocks and bonds.

    My main question was what to do instead of investing in US dollar - based assets, and no, I have not answered my own question.
    May 10 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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464 Comments
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