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TaiPan

TaiPan
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  • S&P 500: Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    Author:

    The S&P 500 is up over 24% the past two years, while money flow has been declining. How, then, does money flow help the investor decide WHEN to exit the market?
    Jul 21, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HEDJ Vs. DBEU: Same Vista, Different Perspectives [View article]
    "Also at a glance, the comparison table indicates, to me at least, that HEDJ has a lower average P/E, dividend, is better value by price to cash flow, better dividend, payout ratio and is less volatile."

    There's your article in a nutshell, Mike, or at least the conclusion. Never over-estimate the ability (or patience) of the reader to glance at your data and come to the conclusion that you think is obvious. As an author, you need to lead. Don't worry about being too persuasive, preferring to let the reader come to his own conclusion. The comments will bring out opposing viewpoints.
    Jul 16, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HEDJ Vs. DBEU: Same Vista, Different Perspectives [View article]
    I once heard a funny way of characterizing analyses that present data up the ying yang, with no apparent purpose other than to present data, then leave the reader to draw conclusions.

    It went: "He vomited on the table but left us to sift through it to find the hard bits."

    This analysis is not as bad as that, but it took a lot of concentration to extract a message an investor could use.

    A more useful approach would have been to compare and contrast the two ETFs' methods of currency hedging.

    Absent this, the author could simply have stated that one should be investing in Europe, then showed the two ETFs on a price chart -- letting the investor decide which one to buy.
    Jul 14, 2015. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations could weigh on stocks before earnings [View news story]
    justareader:

    I take it you are impugning the author's use of "could", in the sentence "high valuations could threaten to keep the U.S. stock market spinning in place." Do I understand your point?

    "Could" can also be used as an alternative for "might", and so I think the author used it correctly.
    Jul 12, 2015. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Isn't The Only Swan, And A Rare Rotation [View article]
    Michael, are you becoming a perma bear? Your articles over the past months (perhaps as long as a year) are all about when and why the sky will fall.

    While it is true that avoiding major losses is important, if we investors want alpha, we can't just hide in cash for fear of swans -- whether black or grey.

    It would be instructive to know the opportunity cost of missing market returns because of seeking to crisis-proof portfolios. As you say, for the past several years there hasn't been a significant market correction that would have rewarded your conservative stance. But over the past (say) 5 years, how have your portfolios fared compared with the S&P 500?
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:58 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold As A Safe Haven During Next Market Correction [View article]
    Are you kidding me?! There are many periods where gold -- purchased as a safe haven in times of trouble -- has declined in value, perhaps not in lockstep with the asset being escaped from, but significantly enough to warrant the word "disappointing".

    And as an investment (forget safe haven for the moment), it has declined many, many times.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold As A Safe Haven During Next Market Correction [View article]
    Intriguing analysis. When you say you're "out", can you provide specifics?
    You've ruled out cash in the form of the US dollar. It is doomed as the world's exchange currency -- as you've maintained.

    You can't go to cash in ANY fiat currency for that matter, for similar reasons.

    Do you go to actual gold (despite the difficulties pricing it fairly, and the problems holding it securely)?
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Greek Crisis Mean For Financial Markets? [View article]
    If the banks have already diminished their exposure to Greek bonds, who bought the bonds from the banks? I don't dispute your assertion; I just don't know who has the assets to take on Greece's sovereign debt.
    Jun 21, 2015. 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold As A Safe Haven During Next Market Correction [View article]
    I was talking about any correction, not a specific one. A point of the article is to prepare us for the next correction -- whenever it may occur. I ask the question, "why not go to cash" instead of worrying about whether gold is going to act a a safe haven, or disappoint us again.

    And if cash i(USD) s not considered safe in this world if currency volatility, buy a few ETFs of the major world currencies instead.
    Jun 21, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold As A Safe Haven During Next Market Correction [View article]
    Since corrections are short lived, why not go to cash? If the investor is wary of the USD, choose a number of ETFs representing the major currencies.
    Jun 20, 2015. 10:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Exit [View article]
    I didn't know that the "banks" had got rid of Greek bonds. Who were the buyers?
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Exit [View article]
    It's not bankers' money; it is investors' money that is at stake. Anyone who bought a Greek bond (via an ETF, mutual fund or with the assets to buy an actual bond) is at risk.

    There is a disconnect going on. It is not some faceless bank that is at risk; it is us taxpayers and investors.

    If the banks (on behalf of us taxpayers, and funded by us taxpayers) give Greece another financial break, in effect non-Greeks are being asked to fund Greeks' overly-generous pensions and poor tax-collection systems. Personally, I resent the idea of subsidizing Greeks who simply can't or won't live within their means, who expect others to pay for Greek pensions and holidays that are more generous than the payers themselves get.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Grexit Fears And Fed Meeting Put These ETFs In Focus [View article]
    Don't follow you, Gayle Goodman.

    Russia is considerably to the north of Greece; in between lies much of Europe. So any gas pipeline from Russia to Greece would have to go through Europe first, not the other way around. Stated differently, access to Greece would not give Russia better access to Europe.

    I must have misunderstood your point, so please clarify for me.

    Thanks.
    Jun 17, 2015. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Rising Rates Mean Falling Stocks? [View article]
    Good advice can be given in an understated, moderate way Mr. Duval. If the advice is sound, its wisdom will be self evident.

    I'd advise against the strident rhetoric that failed pundits often resort to. They rail against irrational markets that are not rewarding their particular strategies.
    Jun 16, 2015. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Start Living An Easier Life And Start Beating The Market Through Contrarian ETF Investments [View article]
    I got scolded by the author for not paying enough attention to the fact that the investor would not go all in at -40%, but rather would start a dollar-cost-average (DCA) program. That way, if the ETF continued to decline, the investor would buy even cheaper, and make more profit when the ETF recovered.

    On about 15 February the author declared that he would be starting a DCA program into RSX (since it had declined 40% from its peak). As bad luck would have it, -- bad luck for the strategy at any rate -- RSX recovered soon after, and the "swing trader" who waited for RSX to recover (say) 10% off the bottom and then went "all in" would have done better than the DCA investor.

    This is hindsight, however. RSX might have declined even more and then recovered, making a DCA strategy better than the "all in" approach. Don't we all wish we had hindsight working for us in future investments?

    Until that happy day, however, I am looking for ETF screeners that can identity ETFs with relative strength. I am currently using ETR Replay, but always look for others.

    Any suggestions? The Seeking Alpha screener is not suitable.

    .
    Jun 14, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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