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TaiPan

TaiPan
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  • With The Market At New Highs, Is It Time To Head For The Exit? [View article]
    Nor will they prevent the market from rising.

    The market either rises or falls, and using such predictors for certainty is like using tea leaves. If there were certainty, there would be no buyers or (at other times) no sellers.
    May 20, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The Market At New Highs, Is It Time To Head For The Exit? [View article]
    Ant21b:

    You say the longs will be capitulating in the next year or so? That's much longer than most shorts can be kept in play.

    For sure the markets will decline sooner or later. The direction is easy to foretell; the precise timing is more difficult, and -- as in life -- timing is everything.

    What' a poor retail investor to do? Invest in ETFs with upward momentum over a reasonable period of time (avoid flashes in the pan, because they can quickly turn down) , and favour those with lower volatility (thus increasing the chances that the ETF will continue rising for at least week or more.
    May 20, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The Market At New Highs, Is It Time To Head For The Exit? [View article]
    But you looked it up, did you not? :-)
    May 20, 2015. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About 'Sell In May And Go Away' [View article]
    Witty, Market Map.

    But seriously, once one has hurdled those criteria, and established a good portfolio, the maintenance is not time consuming, is it?

    So, do the research while young and busy, and then relax with a relatively stable portfolio while too old too enjoy the leisure.
    May 20, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The Market At New Highs, Is It Time To Head For The Exit? [View article]
    In light of the many, many articles that have given the same advice over the years, at each new high for SPX, and given your assertion that "I have shorted the S&P and will continue to add to my position if the market continues to defy my projection", I'd say you have better be prepared for the market to defy you and keep rising in fits and starts.

    To paraphrase Galbraith (I think it was him), the market can remain irrational long after the investor has gone bankrupt".


    .
    May 18, 2015. 04:02 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Systemic, Multi-Valued Market Timing Indicator [View article]
    Would you like extra fries with your order? :-)
    May 14, 2015. 06:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ZOMMA Strategy Index Master Sheet [View article]
    Harry:

    Are you suggesting that an investor/client invest in ALL your portfolios, or just a selection? If the latter, how would one choose? They all did well over time, but from the charts I could not see that one was much clearly better than the others. So, my conundrum would be how to choose.

    You advise investors to shun strategies that are correlated to bonds. At first glance, I did not see any portfolio strategies that did not have a bond component. So, what strategy should an investor/client choose?

    My overall concern is that offering too many choices to an investor is in effect to offer no actionable advice at all, but is more like providing a well-supplied buffet table and saying "go choose your own meal".
    May 10, 2015. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's 400 rebalance adds/drops multiple names [View news story]
    I thought the author said that the ETF for the Barrons 400 was BFOR. If so, it certainly does not outperform SPY or SPX over 1 and 2 years. Only YTD has it outperformed.
    Mar 23, 2015. 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now! March 2015 Update [View article]
    Mark:

    If you're not trying to time the market, i.e. you always have these protective options in place, then your title might read : "The Time to Hedge Is ... Like, Whenever!!
    Mar 17, 2015. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Parabolic U.S. Dollar [View article]
    FXC
    Mar 17, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Parabolic U.S. Dollar [View article]
    If you have a Canadian brokerage account, you could invest in an S&P 500 ETF like XSP which is hedged in Canadian dollars. That means (I must remind myself from time to time) that when the USD declines versus the CAD, your S&P 500 gains are "converted" to CAD hence are protected against USD declines.

    I wasn't able to find such a beast in my US brokerage.

    Or, you could simply invest in ETFs representing other strong currencies like Canada, Australia, China (?), and even the Euro.
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VYM: Challenging The 'Boring' In The Dividend Investing Narrative [View article]
    Author:

    I compared the price chart of VYM with SPY and SPX over several periods, including the peak-to-trough of 2007-2007. I did not notice much difference in performance. It must be in the dividend, then, that VYM outperforms SPX, as you say.
    Mar 14, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading The Parabolic U.S. Dollar [View article]
    All these trends will come to pass. The problem is knowing when. For those of us who have no confidence that we can predict when with any acracy, it is important to use filters and charts to know when to switch (from USD to EURO denominated ETFs, for example, and to gold ETFs fro another).

    I use ETF replay for my filters, and momentum charts. Anyone else care to share their tools? If desired, we could then go into greater detail about how our preferred tools actually work.
    Mar 14, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of Total Return With Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    I think the argument rehearses truisms, but doesn't give practicable investment advice.

    I think there is value in the author's pointing out how much a dividend-growth portfolio can be expected to change over time, i.e. that dividend stocks purchased today may not be held in the portfolio forever. But to try to quantify this point by choosing dividend stocks with a mere 5-year history of rising dividends (as of the early 2000's I recall) is to deviate seriously from the methodology most dividend investors follow. It would have been better consider stocks with a 25-year history of raising dividends as of te early 2000's, and to determine their survival rate.

    I am guessing that the survival rate of the 25-year stocks was much higher than for the 5-year stocks.

    But inevitably some dividend stocks will have to be replaced, maybe not as many as the author suggests in his study, but some. And of course it would be better to sell them high than give them away at low prices. No news here.

    So the argument that total return is important, that dividend investors who are forced to sell flagging dividend stocks for a loss will suffer decreased portfolio return as a result, is self-evident.

    Was it Twain or Will Rogers who advised "buy a stock if it goes up; if it doesn't go up, don't buy it"? Funny advice, but not useful to real investors. I think the author's advice to pay attention to total return is similar. Roughly translated, he is saying 'buy stocks that will go up, not stocks that provide a nice dividend but (unexpectedly) go down'.

    All dividend investors are saying is that stock declines don't matter much if the reasons for choosing the stock in the first place remain valid. The stock will recover, and the dividends will keep rolling in. But if it should become necessary to sell the stock, OF COURSE the price of the stock matters. Better to sell high and look for a good replacement than to sell low.

    Surely there is no disagreement here.
    Mar 10, 2015. 03:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Common Errors Of A Dividend Growth Forecast [View article]
    "I would suggest that the yield of the replacement stock is very important for yield on cost projections."

    We agree on this; I did not say otherwise. My point was that the portfolio does not necessarily suffer a reduction of YOC if one must sell a stock because dividends are flagging. True, you must redeploy the proceeds from the sale into a new stock with an initial YOC of much less than 10%, but you have more capital to invest in this new stock, hence the dividend income will be similar to the income from the old stock.
    Mar 6, 2015. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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