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TaiPan

TaiPan
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  • Gold As A Safe Haven During Next Market Correction [View article]
    Are you kidding me?! There are many periods where gold -- purchased as a safe haven in times of trouble -- has declined in value, perhaps not in lockstep with the asset being escaped from, but significantly enough to warrant the word "disappointing".

    And as an investment (forget safe haven for the moment), it has declined many, many times.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold As A Safe Haven During Next Market Correction [View article]
    Intriguing analysis. When you say you're "out", can you provide specifics?
    You've ruled out cash in the form of the US dollar. It is doomed as the world's exchange currency -- as you've maintained.

    You can't go to cash in ANY fiat currency for that matter, for similar reasons.

    Do you go to actual gold (despite the difficulties pricing it fairly, and the problems holding it securely)?
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Greek Crisis Mean For Financial Markets? [View article]
    If the banks have already diminished their exposure to Greek bonds, who bought the bonds from the banks? I don't dispute your assertion; I just don't know who has the assets to take on Greece's sovereign debt.
    Jun 21, 2015. 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold As A Safe Haven During Next Market Correction [View article]
    I was talking about any correction, not a specific one. A point of the article is to prepare us for the next correction -- whenever it may occur. I ask the question, "why not go to cash" instead of worrying about whether gold is going to act a a safe haven, or disappoint us again.

    And if cash i(USD) s not considered safe in this world if currency volatility, buy a few ETFs of the major world currencies instead.
    Jun 21, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold As A Safe Haven During Next Market Correction [View article]
    Since corrections are short lived, why not go to cash? If the investor is wary of the USD, choose a number of ETFs representing the major currencies.
    Jun 20, 2015. 10:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Exit [View article]
    I didn't know that the "banks" had got rid of Greek bonds. Who were the buyers?
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Last Exit [View article]
    It's not bankers' money; it is investors' money that is at stake. Anyone who bought a Greek bond (via an ETF, mutual fund or with the assets to buy an actual bond) is at risk.

    There is a disconnect going on. It is not some faceless bank that is at risk; it is us taxpayers and investors.

    If the banks (on behalf of us taxpayers, and funded by us taxpayers) give Greece another financial break, in effect non-Greeks are being asked to fund Greeks' overly-generous pensions and poor tax-collection systems. Personally, I resent the idea of subsidizing Greeks who simply can't or won't live within their means, who expect others to pay for Greek pensions and holidays that are more generous than the payers themselves get.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Grexit Fears And Fed Meeting Put These ETFs In Focus [View article]
    Don't follow you, Gayle Goodman.

    Russia is considerably to the north of Greece; in between lies much of Europe. So any gas pipeline from Russia to Greece would have to go through Europe first, not the other way around. Stated differently, access to Greece would not give Russia better access to Europe.

    I must have misunderstood your point, so please clarify for me.

    Thanks.
    Jun 17, 2015. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Rising Rates Mean Falling Stocks? [View article]
    Good advice can be given in an understated, moderate way Mr. Duval. If the advice is sound, its wisdom will be self evident.

    I'd advise against the strident rhetoric that failed pundits often resort to. They rail against irrational markets that are not rewarding their particular strategies.
    Jun 16, 2015. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Start Living An Easier Life And Start Beating The Market Through Contrarian ETF Investments [View article]
    I got scolded by the author for not paying enough attention to the fact that the investor would not go all in at -40%, but rather would start a dollar-cost-average (DCA) program. That way, if the ETF continued to decline, the investor would buy even cheaper, and make more profit when the ETF recovered.

    On about 15 February the author declared that he would be starting a DCA program into RSX (since it had declined 40% from its peak). As bad luck would have it, -- bad luck for the strategy at any rate -- RSX recovered soon after, and the "swing trader" who waited for RSX to recover (say) 10% off the bottom and then went "all in" would have done better than the DCA investor.

    This is hindsight, however. RSX might have declined even more and then recovered, making a DCA strategy better than the "all in" approach. Don't we all wish we had hindsight working for us in future investments?

    Until that happy day, however, I am looking for ETF screeners that can identity ETFs with relative strength. I am currently using ETR Replay, but always look for others.

    Any suggestions? The Seeking Alpha screener is not suitable.

    .
    Jun 14, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Rising Rates Mean Falling Stocks? [View article]
    6228371: This has almost always been the case, yet the correlations in this very-useful article hold true. When rates get high (even though their after-tax net benefit is often negative), bonds and other fixed-income investments become more attractive than stocks, and stocks decline

    Author, if you are correct -- and I believe you are -- why does the mere hint of a future FED rate increase send the markets into a swoon?
    Jun 12, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Going Ex-Dividend The Second Week Of June [View article]
    Thanks for the reply. Some time ago I think I did check the strategy you outline (buying stocks after the ex-dividend date and look for a small immediate recovery in price). As I recall, it was a lot of work, and the results not as good as hoped.

    But the idea of selecting only those stocks that have risen strongly before the ex date migt yield better results.

    How would one screen for stocks that have risen strongly in the few days prior to ex date?
    Jun 10, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Going Ex-Dividend The Second Week Of June [View article]
    I have never understood the strategy.

    The stock price drops by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date. If you paid $100, and the dividend is $5, the stock price after the ex-div date will be $95, all other things being equal. You make nothing on the transaction, except to take a taxable dividend, and pay some transaction costs.

    If the strategy works, if you get the dividend AND are able to sell the stock for about the price you paid, it can only be because the stock is on a rising trend, and has risen enough to counterbalance the dividend price drop.

    Could an investor not do as well by buying the stock after the ex-dividend date and making the capital gain?
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks set for modestly lower open as global stocks slide [View news story]
    They're going down, regardless of word choice.
    Jun 9, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With The Market At New Highs, Is It Time To Head For The Exit? [View article]
    Nor will they prevent the market from rising.

    The market either rises or falls, and using such predictors for certainty is like using tea leaves. If there were certainty, there would be no buyers or (at other times) no sellers.
    May 20, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
580 Comments
316 Likes