Seeking Alpha

TaiPan

TaiPan
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View TaiPan's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Poor Man's Program Trading After 3 Months [View article]
    Jamin:

    If you published the article on Bolinger bands, I missed it. Would you give me the link, please?
    Jan 8, 2012. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A System For Picking The Best Long-Term Dividend Growers [View article]
    Bob:
    Chevron is involved in a lawsuit for polluting the Amazon (if I recall correctly), and the damages could be considerable. Have you factored that into your calculations?
    Jan 8, 2012. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sleep Well At Night With A Year-End REIT Wrap Up [View article]
    What concerns me in all this is that well-informed investors have their lists of favourite REITs, and each list is different.

    Sure, each investor has different goals: one prefers immediate income while another prefers future dividend growth, etc., and this may result in different short lists.

    But that doesn't explain why one investor considers a particular REIT safe while another considers it risky.

    S&P rates these REITs high in the list of all REITs: EPR, LHO, OHI, RYN, VTR, and HCP. Yet I don't see them in any stock lists mentioned above. Why not if these REITs are good ones? Surely they are appropriate for some of you?

    Looking just at EPR, one of the highest rated, Schwab gives it a D equity rating, and EPS and dividend growth have been negative over the past 5 years. EPR has a healthy dividend yield of 6.8%, but this won’t likely grow much.

    Will EPR have to cut its dividend in face of a declining EPS?

    Of course, as someone kindly explained to me, you calculate the efffective dividend payout ratio using cash flow, not EPS. And cash flow has increased 10% over the past 5 years, so that makes the dividend look more sustainable.

    But does this accounting sleight of hand lead to a different problem when the investor sells EPR? The cash flow can be positive while EPS is negative BECAUSE REITs can depreciate buildings at an

    Does this not reduce the investor's ACB, thus creating a huge tax bill when the REIT is sold?
    Jan 8, 2012. 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Primer On Agency REITs And 6 That Currently Yield Over 13% [View article]
    Tony T:

    To what does your comment refer, please?
    Jan 8, 2012. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Undervalued Stocks Paying 10%+ Dividends [View article]
    I read an article recommending TEF, but only after Spain's problems have been resolved, whenever that will be..
    Jan 8, 2012. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Dogs Of The Dividend Challengers [View article]
    Forcing yourself to choose the best stocks in each industry sector would prevent your extreme example.

    I agree that jumping in and out of stocks is difficult to time well, but what about an annual or semi-annual review?

    Has anyone got a system for reviewing their D-G portfolio?
    Jan 8, 2012. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends In Danger? Frontier, CenturyLink, Conoco Phillips, 3 Others Continue To Attract Comments [View article]
    What will the spin-off be called?
    Jan 8, 2012. 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A System For Picking The Best Long-Term Dividend Growers [View article]
    1)
    David: I have seen stocks for which EPS declined consistently over 5, 3 and 1-year periods, yet dividends grew over the same periods.

    How can this be? Is this a stock likely to cut dividends eventually?

    2)
    I figure that past dividends are a better guide to future dividends than analysts' estimates. I am trying t reduce guesswork about market behaviour to the minimum, and so ignoring analysts' guesses seems wise.

    Do you disagree?.
    Jan 8, 2012. 02:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A System For Picking The Best Long-Term Dividend Growers [View article]
    True, but if the stock will continue declining, I don't want to buy it on the way down (catching a falling knife). Only if it is rising AND offering a good dividend yield WITH a strong div growth rate do I want the stock.

    I know: I'm fussy.
    Jan 8, 2012. 02:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A System For Picking The Best Long-Term Dividend Growers [View article]
    Sorry about the late reply. I consider myself a novice at evaluating individual stocks, and so don't want to be presumptuous in advising others. I am still gathering data.
    Jan 8, 2012. 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Names Yielding Over 9%: A Look At Their Hedging Costs [View article]
    Got it. Thanks.
    Jan 8, 2012. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Dogs Of The Dividend Challengers [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, David.

    Do I understand, then, that you hardly ever change your portfolio? If, e.g., you had NVS, and JNJ fell in price enough to offer a better dividend yield, would you not switch?

    I would switch, because the chances of JNJ rising in price, back into its normal price range, would seem higher than the chances of NVS continuing to rise (regression to the mean).
    Jan 8, 2012. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sleep Well At Night With A Year-End REIT Wrap Up [View article]
    Excellent point. I agree: disagree without being disagreeable. Brad seems to be trying to provide good advice, doing a lot of work for us, and it seems nasty to reward him with personal slights.


    Jan 8, 2012. 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sleep Well At Night With A Year-End REIT Wrap Up [View article]
    Thanks.

    I wish I had read this before my comments on O.
    Jan 8, 2012. 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sleep Well At Night With A Year-End REIT Wrap Up [View article]
    Good answer, but I am worried that when I analyze a stock myself, I sometimes come to different conclusions than the experts. Makes me doubt my methods.

    Take O as an example.

    I keep reading positive reports on O, but I can’t see how it can maintain a dividend payout ratio of 162% in the face of EPS declines over 5 years and 3 years (only in the last year did EPS increase 10%).

    So, while the initial dividend yield is an attractive 5%, there is no solid basis (to my mind) for expecting consistent dividends, plus the dividend growth rate is a low 5% over the past 5 years.

    That is, O seems to me to be a short-term candidate for the 5% div yield, while one waits for better options. Have I missed something?
    Jan 8, 2012. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
581 Comments
328 Likes