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TaiPan

TaiPan
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  • The 30 Year Treasury Bond Makes No Sense Compared To Dividend Stocks [View article]
    If you examine the S&P 500 over many years, the time for bond-like investments (e.g. TL:T) is during the traditionally weak season of May - October. Rotating between bonds and stocks every six months on May 1 and November 1 dramatically improves CAGR.

    But yes, if you're holding for ever, dividend stocks will outperform bonds over time.
    Apr 1 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500's Summer Slumps And Why This Summer Could Be Different [View article]
    Let's say that this summer is like most, and a slump occurs despite your analysis, what adjustments should the investor make?
    Apr 1 06:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Trick To Protect Against The Next Bear Market [View article]
    I have been researching a different approach, requiring about 10 minutes and five trades every six months.

    Send me an individual message and I'll send you my findings. You can then check the figures yourself and decide whether the strategy suits you.

    It is not a newsletter, but rather a play upon the old, venerable fact that it pays to be invested relatively aggressively during the November to April period, then in May you don't quite "go away"; rather you switch to more conservative investments.

    The back-tested results are quite impressive.
    Mar 23 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Trick To Protect Against The Next Bear Market [View article]
    I chose MCD and MSFT at random and eyeballed the correlation from May 2004 to May 2007, and then from May 2007 to a few years later.

    I honestly could not see any real difference in correlation, and certainly not a convergence of price action leading up the the 2008 Bear market.

    Am I not being subtle enough, just eyeballing a price chart?
    Mar 22 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Trick To Protect Against The Next Bear Market [View article]
    When did both TLT and SPY go down in the 2008 Bear market? That was surely a good test of correlation, and my back test of both shows that they were negatively correlated for most of the period.

    But my primary reason for commenting is that I have a question for Kurtis. Without checking the stats carefully, I recall that stocks dove severely and suddenly at the onset of the 2008 Bear, leaving no time for the orderly liquidation of individual stocks you advocate.

    It would be interesting to know, do your data show that a high correlation among stocks, or ETFs, usually predicts a Bear market, or even a serious correction, sufficiently in advance for investors to take protective action?
    Mar 22 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, Ackman, Free Markets And A Put Strategy [View article]
    There are indeed lots of company-produced scams, but that does not necessarily justify the behaviour of attack-dog hedge funds. It seems like easy -- and barely legal -- money to short a stock, float a few well-placed rumours to drive the stock down, even make a presentation based more on allegation than proven fact, then cover the short position.
    Dec 27 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Covered Call Writing With The Qs [View article]
    I am (impatiently) awaiting arrival of your book, Alan, and will go directly to the parts on exit strategies.
    Dec 24 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Covered Call Writing With The Qs [View article]
    Many many studies have shown that there is no difference between a cash-secured put and a covered call -- except that opening the initial call requires two commissions, the put only one.
    Dec 23 06:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Oncothyreon Is The Stock To Own Into 2013 [View article]
    Well, you can make a few dollars selling calls at the money or slightly OTM. Over time that will reduce your loss. I prefer to sell calls and keep the stock in case of a miracle.

    But ask me again in a year.
    Dec 20 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Oncothyreon Is The Stock To Own Into 2013 [View article]
    Seems like the drug (and the company) is dead now.

    Any hope of a rise from the ashes?
    Dec 19 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sell Options To The Speculative Crowd [View article]
    You mean Elder is a medical doctor?

    Even if so, why do we feel the need to address medical doctors as "doctor" outside the medical arena?

    Even vets, dentists, and chiropractors like to be addressed as "doctor". Seems vainglorious to me.

    Sorry author: a digression from the point of the article.
    Dec 17 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Covered Call Writing: Using Multiple Exit Strategies In The Same Contract Month [View article]
    l Alan:

    I enjoy your articles.

    One thing perplexes me in your NAV example: the timing.

    The first time you bought to close, you waited for a while before writing a new (replacement) call on the stock, and because NAV’s price rose, you were able to achieve a “double” by re-selling the $30 call. Neat. . But if you didn’t know that NAV was going to rise, what made you wait before writing a replacement call?

    The second time that you closed early, you immediately wrote a replacement call at $17.50, and NAV trended sideways. Had NAV rebounded again, you would have missed the chance to re-sell the $30 call, because your shares would have been committed already at the $17.50 strike. But because NAV trended sideways, your decision to immediately sell the $17.50 call was the right one.

    However, I ask myself how I (in your situation) could have known to wait the first time, but sell a replacement call immediately the second time? My crystal ball is cloudy.
    Dec 11 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Covered Call Writing And Stock Option Expiration Cycles [View article]

    Talking about the holding (or expiration) period brings up a question that has been concerning me for some time.

    Most people familiar with options agree that a one-month period is more risky than a six-month period (or longer), because if some unexpected negative event depressed the stock price in the month before expiration, there is little time for adjustments.

    But what adjustments? A chance for the stock price to recover? Yes, in this case the longer expiration period is safer. But te other adjustment I can think of is to close (buy back) the option and write another option at a lower strike. This maneuver is available to the investor whether expiration is months down the road or just around the corner.

    So, I am not sure why a one-month is considered so much more risky. In fact, in several ways a shorter period is safer. It avoids risky events like earnings announcements, perhaps the major reason that stocks tank. As well, the longer your holding period, the greater the chance that some unforeseen event will depress the stock price.

    So, on balance I would say that shorter durations are in fact safer, not riskier.

    Comments from the experts?
    Dec 10 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe Oncothyreon Is The Stock To Own Into 2013 [View article]
    I guess I don't understand technical analysis. You say that ONTY has remained above support levels, yet for me one could just as easily draw a line from the June lows to the August lows (in your second chart, the first black one), and say that ONTY has since broken below support levels. This drawing of lines in charts seems quite arbitrary to me.
    Dec 4 05:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russell 2000 Hits Short-Term Extreme... Again [View article]
    Sorry,one additional question. Andrew keeps his indicators secret, but will you share yours? How do you tell when a security is overbought. oversold?
    Dec 2 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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