Weighing The Week Ahead: Central Bankers Take The Spotlight [View article]
Jeff, I read you always and appreciate both the effort and the quality analysis.
An ongoing frustration with my own analysis is the opacity shrouding key facts, as I would like my conclusions to be reality based. So there's this about tax withholding sharply declining: http://bit.ly/tVTPD3 Certainly biased, but Scott Grannis has his own consistent bias as well.
I would be happier if better unemployment stats didn't rest upon a relentless shrinking of the eligible-to-be-counted group of not working but not technically unemployed.
So I am cautious about forming opinions when its not clear that sources we would like to trust aren't making up their own facts.
How Speculative Investors Helped Inflate The Housing Bubble [View article]
There were Seminars, for heaven's sake, on how to cash out as appraisals soared and sales volumes weakened. Here's how many became multiple homeowners: A. refinance (or max. home equity loan) the big house you own but can't afford keep. B. take equity and pay cash for one you can. C. Default on the refi, and risk the BK. In most states you can keep some or all of the equity in your residence.
How Speculative Investors Helped Inflate The Housing Bubble [View article]
. I call bs on the report. Of course they knew it. Since 2003 all the major builders had multiple-buyer clauses to try to slow it and prevent competing re-sales. Let's face it. Free money loans and non-recourse in law or in practice made this a risk free roll of the dice for speculators. If the market went up, sell. If it went down, walk. Without assigning fault, lack of lending standards made the game possible. Of course where there are real lending standards, there are fewer loans and fewer juicy securitization fees. The real victims, who deserve some of our sympathy, are the families who bought late and with real down payments, afraid that they must or would forever be priced out.
More from Corzine: "I was stunned when I was told ... that MF Global could not account for many hundreds of millions of dollars of client money ... I had little expertise or experience in (the) operational aspects of the business ... since my resignation ... I have not had access to the information that I would need to understand what happened." [View news story]
"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."--Frederic Bastiat
Weighing The Rest Of The Week Ahead: Eurozone Soap Opera, Summit Edition [View article]
Wish I could discern actual market sentiment, as published sentiment indicators are often collectively contradictory and may not reflect market positioning.
Policy analysis of decisions makers: The solution to pollution is dilution (print money). When under fire, change the organizational chart (some form of EU defection).
Cautiously on the side of ECRI (best of breed), but verifying. All regions but US currently at or in contraction. Not a believer in decoupling.
EU break-up would be a positive. Those calling it a disaster are talking their book.
Europe: 'Headed For A Blood In The Streets Outcome' [View article]
Fine, thanks for asking. There are cheap properties to be had, prices are up from our 2009 bottom, taxes are down by half, and things are better than we would have hoped. Even builders are getting some game.
Taking down a ponzi scheme instead of papering it over worked like a charm.
Pres. Obama's exhortations today that his administration is "ready to do our part" in resolving Europe's debt crisis likely will amount to little more than moral support, despite cynical finger-wagging from the likes of Zero Hedge. Republicans and Democrats alike are opposed to any U.S. bailout of Europe, with almost no chance that authorization for funding could get through Congress.[View news story]
So far the Fed and Treasury have not been overly concerned with conventions like Congressional authorizations, rule of law, or the voting public. Congress will have the job of ex post facto genuflecting.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Deluge Of Data (But The Story Will Be All About Europe) [View article]
Frankly Scott's chart of corporate profits to nominal GDP might be the most interesting. An all time high divergence from the mean. GDP better get with it, and soon.
Why not just declare the member states defunct, ban sovereignty, democracy, any remaining pretense of free markets, and authorize a takeover by the US Fed.
Apartment financing is in a bubble, as multi-family has been one of the only sectors to get favored treatment over the last 3 years and is becoming over-built. Next up is all these apartments to come on line in a year, just as single family bottoms and purchases pick up, resulting in increased vacancy rates in apartment-land. Take profits.
Following the failure of the debt panel, President Obama will try to get Congress to preserve an expiring payroll tax cut. Republicans haven't ruled out extending the tax cut and jobless benefits, but they will probably want additional spending reductions to offset the $168B cost. [View news story]
While that is technically true, the administration had explicitly rolled the payroll tax cuts into the mix on the supercommittee. Unringing that bell is tricky. http://reut.rs/v6tjhG
Following the failure of the debt panel, President Obama will try to get Congress to preserve an expiring payroll tax cut. Republicans haven't ruled out extending the tax cut and jobless benefits, but they will probably want additional spending reductions to offset the $168B cost. [View news story]
Didn't he say just last night that he would veto anything that attempted to circumvent the automatic cuts?
Tim Tebow, Social Mood And The Future Of U.S. Stocks [View article]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Central Bankers Take The Spotlight [View article]
An ongoing frustration with my own analysis is the opacity shrouding key facts, as I would like my conclusions to be reality based. So there's this about tax withholding sharply declining: http://bit.ly/tVTPD3 Certainly biased, but Scott Grannis has his own consistent bias as well.
I would be happier if better unemployment stats didn't rest upon a relentless shrinking of the eligible-to-be-counted group of not working but not technically unemployed.
So I am cautious about forming opinions when its not clear that sources we would like to trust aren't making up their own facts.
How Speculative Investors Helped Inflate The Housing Bubble [View article]
How Speculative Investors Helped Inflate The Housing Bubble [View article]
I call bs on the report. Of course they knew it. Since 2003 all the major builders had multiple-buyer clauses to try to slow it and prevent competing re-sales. Let's face it. Free money loans and non-recourse in law or in practice made this a risk free roll of the dice for speculators. If the market went up, sell. If it went down, walk. Without assigning fault, lack of lending standards made the game possible. Of course where there are real lending standards, there are fewer loans and fewer juicy securitization fees.
The real victims, who deserve some of our sympathy, are the families who bought late and with real down payments, afraid that they must or would forever be priced out.
Buy These Europe 'Based' Companies Before Buffett Does [View article]
With Housing Weak, The 'Non-Distressed' Component Of The Market May Be Stabilizing [View article]
More from Corzine: "I was stunned when I was told ... that MF Global could not account for many hundreds of millions of dollars of client money ... I had little expertise or experience in (the) operational aspects of the business ... since my resignation ... I have not had access to the information that I would need to understand what happened." [View news story]
Weighing The Rest Of The Week Ahead: Eurozone Soap Opera, Summit Edition [View article]
Policy analysis of decisions makers: The solution to pollution is dilution (print money). When under fire, change the organizational chart (some form of EU defection).
Cautiously on the side of ECRI (best of breed), but verifying. All regions but US currently at or in contraction. Not a believer in decoupling.
EU break-up would be a positive. Those calling it a disaster are talking their book.
Europe: 'Headed For A Blood In The Streets Outcome' [View article]
Taking down a ponzi scheme instead of papering it over worked like a charm.
Pres. Obama's exhortations today that his administration is "ready to do our part" in resolving Europe's debt crisis likely will amount to little more than moral support, despite cynical finger-wagging from the likes of Zero Hedge. Republicans and Democrats alike are opposed to any U.S. bailout of Europe, with almost no chance that authorization for funding could get through Congress. [View news story]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Deluge Of Data (But The Story Will Be All About Europe) [View article]
What To Do With Europe [View article]
Apartments - A Contrarian View [View article]
Following the failure of the debt panel, President Obama will try to get Congress to preserve an expiring payroll tax cut. Republicans haven't ruled out extending the tax cut and jobless benefits, but they will probably want additional spending reductions to offset the $168B cost. [View news story]
Following the failure of the debt panel, President Obama will try to get Congress to preserve an expiring payroll tax cut. Republicans haven't ruled out extending the tax cut and jobless benefits, but they will probably want additional spending reductions to offset the $168B cost. [View news story]