Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View lower98th's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Yale professor Robert Shiller's worried we're setting up for another housing bubble within five years: "The low interest rates, the affordability is leaning that way and the ratios are back down."  [View news story]
    Did she see the same interview I did? Where he said he saw at most a tepid 4% increase in prices in 5 years?
    Aug 19, 2009. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Justice Watch Lawsuit Raises Serious Questions on TARP Decisions [View article]
    Wouldn't it be nice to see ALL the fraudulent insider self-dealing fully investigated? If history is any indication, public demand for justice will be assuaged by the token prosecution of isolated individuals largely disassociated from a corporate power base. Madoff and Stanford both fit this profile, and there will be others. To quote one frustrated government official, "we're hell on widows and orphans."
    Aug 19, 2009. 07:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arthur Levitt Defends High Frequency Trading [View article]
    Wall Street today conjures up the image of Cuckoos in stolen digs: A bunch of obligate brood parasites, open-mouthed, squawking, demanding to be fed, rewarded for the feat of having pushed the legitimate population out of the financial nest.
    Aug 18, 2009. 11:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clarifying America's No-Win Economic Dilemma [View article]
    When US resource policy was debated 30 years ago, "import theirs" won over "drain America first." We are not without resources, but we have waited very late in the game to deploy them for our own use. On the bright side, we have everything we need to be self-reliant if we have to be, and the technology to make that happen, and enough flexibility to ride out a transition.
    Aug 18, 2009. 07:09 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Granular Look at the Stratified U.S. Consumer [View article]
    The upper class is the most egregrious special interest group, having enjoyed an enormous transfer of wealth from the rest of us. To quote Texas from the oil crisis circa '70's: LTBFITD.

    >" legislation that require both of the aformentioned classes to continue
    > to subsidizing transfers income and wealth to the underclasses that..."
    Aug 16, 2009. 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Granular Look at the Stratified U.S. Consumer [View article]
    Hey Tyler: PS

    How much of the "wealth" of the upper decile do you suppose is in "other" real estate? Are rental properties part of housing or are they "other business assets?" How about smallcomm? Or farm holdings? Or private shares of real-estate related businesses?

    Aug 16, 2009. 09:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Granular Look at the Stratified U.S. Consumer [View article]
    Based on Tyler's charts, I might need to change my name to Lower94th.

    The bottom half of the top decile, barely hanging onto that questionable achievement, is weary, leary, and worried. Our own "wealth" has declined, our future security is less certain, and what spending power we have might, for some time to come, be needed to help sustain important extended family: parents with retirement losses, students without prospects, adult children with job concerns. If I am still in the upper class, we are in big trouble.
    Aug 16, 2009. 08:47 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citadel Set to Control 97.5% of E*Trade's Order Flow [View article]
    Perhaps we should call flash trading what it is - a transaction TAX, paid not to the government, but to Goldman and company. It should be only a matter of time til the authorities grab this revenue source for themselves.
    Aug 15, 2009. 07:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Continue to Sell, Sell, Sell [View article]
    So now the Goldman push is to make money on the puts and shorts being acquired during the rally?

    On Aug 14 12:25 PM Peter Daskaloff wrote:

    > Also, here's an extremely bearish report on the state of the markets
    > by Goldman Sachs.
    > tulpenwoede.tornflag.c...
    Aug 14, 2009. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Collapse Is Accelerating [View article]
    Thanks for the email. I agree that the collapse has further to go in housing. I just think it is collapsing bottom first, like an imploding building. The lower floor hit the ground first, and everything else will price-compress on top. The lower end home here, in perfect condition, is off 60% from the 2006 high. Jumbos, alt a's, everything held by deeper pockets will follow, pretty-much in order of reverse affluence.
    Aug 13, 2009. 04:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Collapse Is Accelerating [View article]
    About housing. It has a shelf life. It has to be relatively "fresh" to be bought by a consumer or meet standards to qualify for many mortgages. Some (famous, economist-type) guy joked that cut cabbage and vacant houses have similar spoilage rates. Many vacant, power-off foreclosures will soon be too deteriorated or damaged to be sold to the general public at any price.
    The housing market, especially the lower end, is nearer to price stability than you would think from the inventory numbers, because much of the current foreclosure crop will not survive the voyage. The banks will be writing off ever-more devalued, unsold foreclosures. Buyers, without the means to refurbish or indeed risk taking on sub-standard housing will be buying from a newly minted crop of homes at whatever is the new price point.

    Aug 13, 2009. 04:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Builders Appear Stable: The Worst Is Likely Over [View article]
    Housing does not equal Homebuilders. Existing housing will not recover meaningfully or well. New-home builders, however, will do much better. Why? Foreclosed or abandoned, vacant housing is increasingly deteriorating over time, taking bubble-era production neighborhoods along for the ride. Once mostly owner-occupied, these neighborhoods add more empty and rental units into the mix, becoming less desirable to owner-occupants. The cost to fix longer-abandoned houses increases. The neighborhood HOA's become more underwater and common maintenance is deferred.
    New buyers avoid these blighted neighborhoods. Indeed they don't have the financial resources to take the risk of buying there, even at a lower price. They want and need new homes (with warranty, free of foreclosure repair and HOA assessment issues) in new, financially intact neighborhoods. These new neighborhoods will be built and sold to the new buyer, at the new price-point, by the same old homebuilders! Buy the same old Homebuilders!
    Aug 12, 2009. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae Needs $1.7 Billion in New Treasury Capital [View article]
    Hello!!!!! What is the real number?

    On Aug 07 03:00 PM dybydx wrote:

    > i think the title of this article is wrong.. is it suppose to b $10.7B?
    Aug 7, 2009. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae Needs $1.7 Billion in New Treasury Capital [View article]
    Today, in central Florida, a family member went to contract on a 2600 sq ft, 4 bedroom house. The net offer, after deducting only seller paid closing costs, was $196,000. The 2007 (new) sales price of this house was $482,300. In this small, newer neighborhood of 100 homes, maybe 20% are distressd. There are 12 bank secured/not-for- sale-yet properties and some listed short sales I know to be 6 months lis pendens. I don't really get it, and this is only Florida, but why are these vacant, slowly deteriorating homes not for sale?
    Aug 7, 2009. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Confidence Games and Ponzi Schemes: No Way to Run the World's Largest Economy [View article]
    Serial killers, among others, believe that the reason the rest of us don't do it, is because we, the inferior, aren't smart enough, ballsy enough, etc. to do it.....they don't buy that we could, but we won't.

    Sociopathy is a requirement for winning in the new normal.
    Aug 7, 2009. 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment