assman

Verifone is Gregory Pepin's Highest Conviction Holding - Here's Why

This whole thing sound sketchy to me.

"The fund's portfolio is built upon fundamental analysis of stocks, with a long term horizon. The fund has been modeled on the investment approaches of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett and Philip Fischer"

The above is a lie. Buffett and Benjamin Graham would never touch Verifone. Take a look at its book value. The stock is heavily leveraged. Its highly speculative. It doesn't have any durable competitive advantage. Its cash flow is not great. It might be a great pick but its most definitely not a Buffett, Graham or even a Fisher pick.

This article tells me a few things: don't touch Verifone, don't touch OXBO.

An Unbelievable Investment Opportunity in Gold

Goldbugs are fools. Gold is definitely in a bubble. Eventual price for gold will be 400 at best but probably even less.

Will Microsoft Get Squeezed by Chrome OS?

Yes I agree Crome will crush Windows and Microsoft.

Now can you people please start shorting MSFT and driving its prices down so I can buy more of it. I mean WTF, people keep writing these stories but I still can't seem to get a cheap price on Microsoft. I want the fools to do their job so I get to buy more MSFT on the cheap.

'Managing Investment Portfolios' - Six Traps Investors Should Avoid

"I believe the biggest trap of all is the "buy and hold" mentality. With the DJIA back to where it was 10 years ago, there is no question that stocks are to be traded, never to be owned for life."

I think this reasoning is wrong. Stocks should not be held when the price being offered vastly exceeds fundamentals. This is what happened during the tech boom and during the 1929 boom.

However at all other periods where stocks trading at average to even substantially above average prices my view is that investors should just buy and hold. Right now we are in a normal period and stock prices are fair. I think investors should just buy and hold.

Its really bad to base investments on past performance or price history. The fact that stocks are where they were 10 years ago is because the Tech bubble was so huge and ridiculous. Microsoft is a good case in point. At the height of the boom Microsoft had a P/E of 70. Ever since the tech boom Microsoft stock price has gone nowhere. However every year its earnings have increased and the stock has become cheaper in relative terms. During the recent crash Microsoft had a P/E as low as 9. I went all in. Many people questioned my decision but I knew it was right. The fact the stock had gone nowhere for 7 years was irrelevant to me. I knew that it had become very cheap for precisely this reason and the fact that its earning were continuously increasing.

Trading is bad because most people are shitty traders and are horrible at market timing. Also there are higher capital gains taxes when you trade. People keep predicting that the stock market will crash and they keep getting it wrong. That is because people suck at predicting crashes.

Microsoft: Free Cash Flow Analysis

i invested in MSFT in april....but then im a genius. I even beat the Goldman Sachs analyst which upgraded Microsoft. SUCK IT Goldman!

The Hun's Top 12 Value Buys

BTW, no sure how you did your valuation for RDK. I checked out your link and I can't make sense of it. What you seem to do is:

NTA + DCF of earnings = 14.25 + 2 / (0.095-0.03) = 45

This seems wrong to me. You can't add the net asset value to the DCF of the per share earnings because you can't extract the assets wihout losing the cash flow. You either take NTA as the value of the company or DCF but not both added together. Am I missing something?

The Hun's Top 12 Value Buys

I hate Ruddick. I am not sure why you like it. Its expensive. It isn't growing very quickly. What is so great about it. I would much rather have Microsoft or JNJ. I hate retail. Low profit margins. Lots of assets. Crappy business and very crappy return on equity. Microsoft is much better.

The Hun's Top 12 Value Buys

Wow. You are definitely using screens similar to mine. All your ideas line up with mine as far as deep value plays go.

I didn't buy ENSCO I bought NE but I remember looking at all the offshore oil drillers.

I was considering REITS but couldn't find ones I like. I'll take a look at yours.

I considered shippers but the short histories worried me. However the valuations are so compelling that I might buy.

Church & Dwight: Optimism Abounds

I love CHD but its far too expensive for my taste. I don't care if it consistently beat analyst expectations. Analysts are stupid anyways

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

Ah all you stupid stupid stupid people.

I have 75% of my portfolio in Microsoft. Your foolishness is my fortune.

I will step on your faces in my journey to riches ... you poor stupid plebians.

Normally i am not so arrogant but in the face of ridiculous bullshit I have no choice.

Some Tech Sector Optimism

"Regarding Microsoft: I just read a speculation somewhere (I forget where) that Google might release its own OS in two years. (It's already putting together the pieces for an ecosystem with Chrome, Android, online aps, etc.) This is a potential Black Swan. "

I fucking hate google as a stock and a company. If I shorted I'd short the fuck out of Google. Google is a horribly run company in a a great industry. As for google creating its own OS, so what. Google is also releasing its own toilet called the Goolet. But in the end none of this will save Google. Google is just a bunch of crazy arabs that struck oil and have no idea what to do with the money. The expanded too fast, went public when they should not have, hired way too many people and started way too many useless products. I don't know why people fear Google. They have one successful product: Search. That is it.

BTW, I have to disagree with one of your picks: INTC. Intel is a good company in a horrible industry and it is not going to do well. My view is that INTC has way too high a price and cost pressure/R&D expenditures are going to clobber the stock in the long run.


On 2008 Nov 17 09:49 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> Regarding Microsoft: I just read a speculation somewhere (I forget
> where) that Google might release its own OS in two years. (It's already
> putting together the pieces for an ecosystem with Chrome, Android,
> online aps, etc.) This is a potential Black Swan.

Google: Where Failure Is Instructive

Google sucks! They took and great and incredibly profitable business and destroyed it. How?

1. By diversifying into way too many useless areas.

2. Hiring way too many useless engineers. You can come up with as many brilliant ideas as you want. Brilliant ideas != great business. For brilliant ideas to succeed you need brilliant business models. Google so far has only had one brilliant business model - AdWords. Labour is a cost not an asset!

3. Going public. They had a cash cow with search and little competition. Since they have gone public they have encouraged companies like Microsoft and others to compete now that people know what their earning are. They never needed the money from an IPO. They could have kept the company private and maintained secrecy.

What Google doesn't seem to realize is that companies do not generally come up with tonnes of great ideas. And giving away ideas is never a good idea. Great companies come up with many 3 or 4 great ideas that they focus on. Or sometimes just one idea.