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thepartyisover

thepartyisover
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  • Does Microsoft Still Deserve Apple's PE? [View article]
    The P/E of Microsoft is taking into account a large one-time writedown. Adjusted for that, Microsoft is selling more like a P/E of 10 or 11 so your argument is completely wrong..
    Sep 14, 2012. 11:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part Of Amazon.com's Core Is Dying [View article]
    You're not right or wrong if the market agrees with you. You're right or wrong because your logic is right or wrong.

    You can't say, "oh, look at me, i've made money!". The market has been stupid for a long time and misvaluing everything. Paulo is right and will likely be proven so in the not too distant future.
    Oct 24, 2014. 03:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cook Does Icahn's Dirty Work At Apple [View article]
    While Microsoft's stock price may have floundered since the early 2000's, it's business grew significantly. The comparison to Apple is not really fair though because Microsoft started at a much higher multiple when it stagnated. Apple's valuation is starting where Microsofts ended, after multiples compressed
    Apr 24, 2014. 01:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summers And Krugman On Bubbles And The Great Stagnation [View article]
    It took a lot of courage to write this article since it flies in the face of conventional wisdom. I'm not sure I agree with the claim that high stock prices leads to low inflation but it is thought provoking.

    Let's assume you are correct. High stock prices leads to low inflation and thus, the inverse, low stock prices leads to high inflation must also be true. The argument would be based on the fact that capital going into stock prices is not circulating in the economy and therefore not creating wage inflation or commodity inflation. Perhaps there is some truth to that but the argument is weak if you consider that if the capital was never created at all, the economy and the stock market would both be weaker.

    Conventional wisdom is that the yield on risky assets is a function of the risk free rate and some risk premium. If long term risk free rates are being pushed down by QE purchases, then the yields of risky assets are also being pushed down (and therefore risky asset prices rise).

    Like all other risky assets, human capital has a risky yield. By lowering the risk free asset yield, the price for human capital rises and the yield follows the risk free asset yield lower. If all else was equal, I think QE would be creating inflation.

    Unfortunately, all else is not equal. There are huge deflationary forces in the economy today. The internet is a large deflationary force in the labor market.

    The SKH hypothesis states that for full employment, the natural interest rate is negative. The unfortunate conclusion is that the yield for marginal human capital might also be negative. Indeed, you can see this on seeking alpha (which is on the internet) and where there are so many articles that are a waste of time (thus showing the yield for human capital is negative). Perhaps my comment is no different.
    Nov 26, 2013. 11:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada Is Not A Walking Dead [View article]
    Ben's point about including taxes and interest in the all in costs were more related to interest than taxes. Creating new metrics to evaluate reality are fine, so long as they are accurately representing reality. While he may or may not be correct in other metrics, I did find his article to be more objective and less biased than yours.
    Nov 15, 2013. 07:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part Of Amazon.com's Core Is Dying [View article]
    Perhaps you have it mixed up... Earnings are the weighing machine. Popularity and sentiment are the voting machines..

    Amazon was just weighed and up came up too light.
    Oct 24, 2014. 01:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No One Wants To Hear Anything Good About Amazon, But... [View article]
    Amazon is taking value away from other retailers and investors and giving it to customers and employees via stock options. It's great to be a customer or employee, not so great to be an investor or competitor.

    In the long run, can Amazon ever truly be profitable? Even if they kill all competitors, they'd have to keep prices down otherwise competition would pop up.

    You say Amazon is cheap by comparing it to Twitter... Twitter is massively overvalued though...
    Oct 24, 2014. 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's June Quarter Guidance Could Cause A Downdraft In The Shares [View article]
    I think the 2Q guidance doesn't matter. People are already looking towards the 3Q when all the new products are released.
    Apr 21, 2014. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Let Us Not Get Overexcited [View article]
    Apple has actually reduced shares by more than 8% since the beginning of 2013. The yahoo information you have is not updated for Apple most recent quarter.
    Apr 24, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Faces A Problem And Increasing Prices Will Make It Worse [View article]
    I think what this article fails to realize is that Apple can temporarily increase prices when the phone is initially released and then lower prices back down after a quarter or so. By doing so, Apple would be able to sell quantity as well as get higher margins. If Apple does follow such a strategy, I think it would actually benefit consumers that value time highly as they would be able to purchase one on day one without spending a day in line.

    Pricing power and brand values are closely related. Apple has the most valuable brand in the world and a monopoly on the iPhone/iOS. Google doesn't have pricing power in the smartphone world, and neither do their commodity phone producers.
    Apr 15, 2014. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Judge Berkshire Hathaway By Its Book Value Cover [View article]
    "Forbes even calls BRK.A a hedge fund"

    That's not true. Buffett actually did run a hedge fund in the 50's and 60's before he was running Berkshire.
    Mar 12, 2014. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Summers And Krugman On Bubbles And The Great Stagnation [View article]
    You should read Buffett's article on inflation and earnings. This should shed some light for you..

    http://cnnmon.ie/XQzC98

    Interest rates and inflation have historically been tied to the hip. If you are claiming that high stock prices lead to low inflation, you have it flipped as its actually the opposite. Low inflation leads to low interest rates which lead to high asset prices.

    I don't want to be mean but your arguments are not logical and show either that you lack the education in finance or that you are not reasonable. I hope it is the former as that can be fixed.
    Nov 26, 2013. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada Is Not A Walking Dead [View article]
    Ben's point about including taxes and interest in the all in costs were more related to interest than taxes. Creating new metrics to evaluate reality are fine, so long as they are accurately representing reality. While he may or may not be correct in other metrics, I did find his article to be more objective and less biased than yours.
    Nov 15, 2013. 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada's Debt Load: The Consequences, Opportunity, And Risk [View article]
    Nice job. How much is ANV affected by the price of silver vs the price of gold given the increase in silver production?
    Nov 10, 2013. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Make Or Break Moment [View article]
    The title of this article is somewhat wrong. Windows is only one of the four pillars of microsoft (office, windows, server, xbox).

    if windows 8 is a complete disaster, the company should be able to stand on the other three pillars so the title really should be "Window's make or break moment"
    Aug 20, 2012. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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