JPSmith

FHA Insured Loans: Black Magic

The bottom in housing will not occur, and hold, until 10-20% down on all mortgages becomes normal again.

Hyperinflationary Depression Must Be Avoided

How can ANYBODY be surprised by the "hard left" direction Obama & Co.are taking the country? You would have to be completely ignorant of everything he said, did and wrote, and everyone he associated closely with, for his entire career up to the moment he started his campaign, to be justified in being in any way "surprised" by the direction he is taking as President.

We're gonna get "change" all right.

Speaking on behalf of the 48% -- we told you so.

Perrigo: Worth Holding Onto

Perrigo has huge upside potential. With the ever-tightening restrictions on available retail shelf space, major chains are limiting more and more health and beauty product categories to one or at most two national brands plus the store brand equivalent (private label) product, which generates significantly higher retailer margins than the national brands....and Perrigo is far and away the #1 supplier of store brand equivalent products. This is a global trend.

'Almost All Assets Appear to Be Overvalued' - Bill Gross

LOL. Compare the 3,5 and 10 year total returns of PTTRX and SPX. The millions and millions of "long term investors" who bought index funds would be MUCH better off today if they had bought and held Gross' "puny return" bonds.


On Oct 27 06:30 PM jstratt wrote:

> I think it must be a hard time to be in the bond business. Bill Gross
> in my opinion is talking his book. That is justifying to his investors
> why they should accept puny returns. He said that at the very bottom
> and those who took his advise at that point locked in huge losses.
>
>
> It is a great time for long term investors. Many quality long term
> stocks are still at or near 10 year low PE ranges.
>
> In the last big recession around 1980 every kook came out with their
> opinion on why the world was ending and why you have to sell everything
> and why the US was in decline. As a young investor I foolishly allowed
> myself to sell my meager holdings.
>
> Stocks may or may not be great values but they are better than when
> they were 4000+ points higher on the DOW.
>
> For Bill Gross however an article like this may save a few billion
> in assets under mangement from leaving. If I was him I might continue
> to write articles like this.

Home Sales Appear to Be on the Mend

In this case the headline accurately captures the tone of the article.

Home Sales Appear to Be on the Mend

The exact same headline "home sales are on the mend" appeared last summer. It wasn't true then, and it isn't true now.

Housing Crisis Deepens - Prime Borrowers' Roll Is Over

"What this tells you is these prime borrowers flat out COULDN'T AFFORD THE HOUSE."

I would guess that many of these prime borrowers lost their jobs and haven't found new ones. If by "can afford the house" you mean "can continue to service their mortgage even if unemployed for a year or more" very few people would have homes.

The Other Side of the Housing Wealth Effect

Rents usually only fall when a person moves. Very few renters have seen rents in their current locations drop even if comparable market rents have fallen. Landlords know moving is a pain so don't usually reduce rent for current tenants without tough negotiations.

Why I Went Long Exxon Mobil on Monday

I'm avoiding U.S. oil companies, as I consider the current U.S. govt the most likely to punish "big oil" whenever it makes a decent profit.

I like BP, TOT and STO. They are also better hedges against the dollar than the U.S. companies.

Taylor Rule Estimate: Fed Fund Rate Differential at a Whopping 6.8%

Assume you meant "emphatic"....or does one need to be highly attuned to the feelings of others to understand Fed policy? :-)

"The answer is an empathic no"

Major Market Averages Likely to Move Sideways for Years to Come

The big question is what markets will do better than the U.S. over the next ten years. Is decoupling real or not?

Recession Roommates Could Offset Shadow Housing Inventory

An even bigger impediment to housing recovery is that numerous people who in the past would have purchased homes without a second thought, because "real estate always goes up", now realize this is no longer the case and that home ownership is likely to be a poor "investment" for many years -- and will rent instead of buying.

Consumer Debt Levels: An Historical Perspective

The graph is meaningless since it's not adjusted for inflation, or even for population growth -- U.S. population is over double what it was in 1945.

These adjustments wouldn't make it a flat line, but the uptrend would hardly be as dramatic as it looks.

'Green Shoots' Are a Mirage: Economy Will Deteriorate Further

And how many of the 20% laid off will find new, comparable jobs before their unemployment runs out?


On Aug 13 11:01 AM upgrayed wrote:

> Here's an anectodal piece of data. My company laid off ~20% , the
> remaining workforce picked up all the slack and the organization
> reconfigured itself to operate more efficiently. Meanwhile we all
> took a 10% 'temporary' pay cut and bonuses, previously at around
> 15% are mostly gone. And I haven't seen anyone quit as a result of
> this. I don't like it but how can this not bode well for future competitiveness?

GM's Chevy Volt Should Help Recapture Market Share

And the electricity to charge the Volt batteries is free?

The economics for the Volt will be terrible -- until Government Motors gets its sugar daddy (the Govt) to institute "Cash for Clunkers II" wherein vehicles getting >100 mpg receive a $10,000 taxpayer-funded subsidy.