Poborsky

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

This well researched article is worth a look at;

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

This article is wrong on every level. Gold is still off its highs in most currencies. If half decent inflation figures were taken into consideration then gold would have to hit over 7000 dollars to make a new high. Oil is still reasonably priced in most currencies. A good deal of the easy to drill oil is now out of the ground. Price is beginning to reflect this fact. Any past comparisons on the gold/oil ratio are now almost useless.

9 Great Excuses to Be Stubbornly Bullish

If unemployment was still reported as it was in the early sixties before various administrations started messing with the figures then it would be at a level of 22%.

Consumer credit down by 10%
money.cnn.com/2009/09/...

Property repossessions at record levels.

Bank closures rising despite accountancy rule changes.

Commercial and retail property markets in dire straights.

The FED purchasing US treasuries to prop up the market.

The stock market manipulated by a few large banks.

Fiscal deficits running into trillions each year.

Yes we have plenty of reasons to be optimistic and the "experts" will keep up the rhetoric until they have squeezed the public dry.

A U.S. Dollar Crisis in the Making

The world banking system and its need to create ever larger amounts of debt reached its limit. Western economies have been living a lie for many years and politicians and economists have been aware of it. When easy to drill oil was available at a few dollars a barrel then the game could go on, but its up now. Economic growth depends on cheap oil. Inflating away the symptoms will not cure the problem.

A Historical Perspective on U.S. Debt Growth

All this is based on assumptions. Fact is that the politicians are going to inflate this debt away. Problem with this is that the financial system as we know it with its need for exponential growth has found its limit. Boom and bust cycles are all but over with just the large bust to come followed by a massive drop in the standard of living for western society and all the unrest that will follow. The politicians have been lying and thieving for many years and now time is running out for them.

Mid-Term Budget Numbers: Someone's Wearing Rose-Colored Glasses

They have adjusted their figures to include real inflation.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Commercial real estate, option arm mortgage resets. I could go on but its all been said in other articles. The govt owns these institutions! Good thing too, they can print some more paper to bail them out again. Keep an eye on the dollar index, when it tanks then here comes the hyperinflation.

Peak Oil for Dummies

Generally oil depletion estimates factor in finding another 1 trillion barrels of recoverable oil. This needs to be taken in the context of time taken to production and capacity. Supply and demand are the major factors here. Exponential growth is the most overlooked point.

Peak Oil for Dummies

Take a few minutes to digest the contents of this short video.

www.youtube.com/watch?...


On Aug 10 05:28 AM T.Geiger wrote:

> The problem I have with Hubbert's Peak oil production theory[1] is
> that it is just that - a theory. It is framed in such a way that
> disproving the null hypothesis is impossible. A majority of research
> regarding peak oil production and reserves tends to support theory,
> as if the premise is accepted from the start, the researchers are
> biased and data is collected & sited to bolster support. Almost
> a self-fulfilling prophesy.
>
> Before attempting to use the peak oil production theory as an investment
> belief upon which to build one's energy trading strategy, one should
> be aware that there is a competing theory. Abiotic Oil production
> theory[2] originated by Russian researchers, (imho) more closely
> follows the scientific method, and is a more credible theory. The
> null hypothesis may have been disproved in the Ukraine's Dneiper-Donetsk
> Basin, the Gulf of Mexico's Eugene Island 330, and evidence of a
> ethane/methane lake on Saturn's moon Titan.
>
> In this day and age, with the wide variety of political agenda's
> that seem to flourish and encroach on fundamental individual rights
> and freedoms, due diligence is required when evaluating any theory
> put forward that would have a materially effect people's quality
> of life. Remember, slavery and oppression is the historic norm for
> the human condition, individual freedom, duty and responsibility
> is the exception.
>
>
> [1] www.google.com/search?...;rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-...
>
>
> [2] www.google.com/search?...;rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-...

Peak Oil for Dummies

Care to explain why north sea fields are degrading 10% pa. This means that exponentially these oil fields are all but finished.


On Aug 09 02:52 PM Wisdom vs. Information wrote:

> funny, no one like me who has worked in the oilfield is worried about
> peak oil. demand might exceed supply, causing inflation-adjusted
> prices to go up, but the "Peak Oil Theory" is simply a fraud and
> the people who push these theories are idiots. None of of these theories
> have been proven. fields continue to surprise everyone by refreshing
> themselves; those of you who push theories as fact embarrass yourselves--
> worse, you reduce the quality of the discussion about energy

Peak Oil for Dummies

Do some research into the subject. Read some of the articles provided by the author. Look into the exponential factor. The truth is that no major oil fields have been found since the 1970´s. The oil companies spend billions on research and development, employing the best geologists and engineers in the business. Over half the discovered reserves have been used up. Over 1 trillion barrels. The world uses over 30 billion barrels a year and this increase every year. Once it becomes obvious that demand exceeds supply is when the problems start. Do you seriously believe that the US invaded Iraq because of the so called war on terror? Why do you think that they support the corrupt Saudi regime? Places where oil is easy and cheap to extract.


On Aug 09 10:47 AM geophys wrote:

> There is no such thing as peak oil. Only artificial peak oil brought
> on by political means. Meaning "don't drill here, can't drill there,
> legislate no drill areas, don't touch Greenland or the Antarctic."
> We make our ouwn peak oil by not allowing exploration. Africa has
> been largely underexplored, large areas of the the US Continental
> Shelf-underexplored, reinvestment into mis managed Russian Oil field
> would lead to billions of secondary recovery. Future recovery efforts
> of known fields using nano techology or the like will yield 50-60%
> recovery of original oil in place. That would be a 50-100% increase
> in recoverable oil. There is no end in site in my kids, my kids
> kids or mys kids kids kids lifetime. Unless of course we chose (legislate)
> to make peak oil happen.

Peak Oil for Dummies

Great article. I believe that peak oil has already passed. There may be a good amount to be discovered in the arctic etc, but it will take many years to bring this online. US consumption alone is around 18m barrels per day. Do the maths and its frightening. Its not possible to keep up with supply. With many oil exporting nations being at the other side of the bell curve, they will stop exporting and have to use supply for their own demand. We at at the crossroads now. Consequences are too scary to contemplate. World population increased with the advent of the age of oil. Unless there are major technological advances in the next few years then we are in for a century of war and famine.

Back to the Future for the U.S. Dollar

A bit of an odd conclusion because all the media are now saying its a bull market and buy buy buy. When the market was at its low point they were shouting sell. Where do you think its going next?

The US need to borrow 2 trillion dollars every year just to carry on paying the bills. All the economic indicators are rigged. Have a look at the BLS data. 422000 people disappeared from the employment register.

Can you give us some idea of what this new technology is going to be or is this just pure speculation.

The market has risen IMO because of all the stimuli thrown into the economy which has to be paid for by for by higher taxes. Then there cap and trade, health care etc. Even more taxes. Those that create wealth know how to hold onto it so they will go abroad where taxes are not so punitive.

Another scenario for the dollar gaining strength is that smart money is moving out of the stock market while encouraging the retail investors to buy. The stock market hardly rallied on the better than expected jobs figures, while the dollar strengthened by a good amount.

7 Myths About Gold Debunked: Bubble Warning; $600 Target?

Yes they do. With printed money or quantitative easing if you prefer. Along with the other central banks, they are creating an illusion that the system is functioning properly. One of them will step out of line eventually when its not in one countries interests to prop up the ponzi scheme any longer, or a crisis in another country will cause it to collapse. Adding zeros to bank accounts and passing bits of paper around to each other will not bring about a solution. The same incompetent and greedy people who got us into this mess have been handed trillions of dollars to get us out of it. All they are doing is filling their own pockets again and robbing the decent people of the rest of their savings with more ponzi schemes. It is not particularly important whether gold is 100$ or 1000$ an ounce, or silver. The important thing is having hold of some for future use. Paper currency is only worth anything if the people have confidence in it. Confidence can evaporate very quickly, specially when the ponzi scheme starts to fall apart.


On Aug 08 04:15 AM Andrew Butter wrote:

> Treasuries they buy in the open market, see my next article on Securitization
>

7 Myths About Gold Debunked: Bubble Warning; $600 Target?

"And by the way, they can't just print it, that's an illusion, as Professor Fekte points out the Fed must “post collateral with the Federal Reserve agent (who is not under the jurisdiction of the Fed but under that of the government)”.

So what have they been using as collateral? Are you saying that they have taken out mortgages on say Chicago?