If it does happen, you will likely hear that it's due to a flash crash by programmed traders, greedy hedge funds, or uncontrollable circumstances. The scape goats could not be any further from the truth, and we hope to scrape the surface of why it's coming, why it'll happen, and why you need to educate yourself more fully on the issues at hand.

Brief Preview of Catalysts:

1. Technical analysis
2. Increasing unemployment rate
3. Increasing government intervention into the private sector
4. The debt ceiling is about to be breached
5. QE2 by the Federal Reserve failing and the U.S. dollar's dramatic decline
6. The housing market is still in shambles and why the "real" supply of homes is much larger than what's on the market
7. Fannie Mae is still posting billions of dollars in losses and the bleeding wound is getting larger... AGAIN!
8. Euro-Zone worries are worse than a year ago and no "real" fixes have been made to the problem, just small band-aids to push it onto the next year
9. China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries and the ballooning debt
10. Food Stamp Economy: 1 and 7 Americans now on the Food Stamp Program

Charting Out The S&P 500 Thru ETF's (NYSE: SPY)

The S&P 500 is on an incredibly fallible balloon ride to the moon. We'll get into the concept behind why we think Mother Market is 10 months pregnant with a baby to be named The  Stock Market Crash of 2011.

A possible candidate for the stock market top is last Friday's close. Mother Market is struggling to maintain her bubbled valuations.

If you look above, we can see that there are a lot of indications that the market could be topping. Taking an assessment of the short term charts can help us more precisely predict probable market tops. Then when you zoom out to more macro time frames, it helps to see if it is conuction with the shorter-term theories. As far as the S&P 500 SPDRs (NYSE: SPY), which tracks the S&P 500's movement, we can see the daily chart is pointing to a probable top. CCI is breaking down after super overbought signals near 200. Volume is picking up, and weird things are happening. Friday the market gapped up quite a large amount, but was met with selling pressure as the trading day played out. The market is getting a feeling of traders and investors selling any rip up as they try to scale out of positions with the QE2 near completion and the US Dollar finally starting to rebound as result. Let's look at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 SPDRs (NYSE: SPY) next!

This chart still looks strong although in Q1 we saw some breaking down. We think the 2nd round of breaking down is right now. Based on the past, we are thinking the next step could be a triple top coming. This means that if we top right now and pull back, it would be followed by a lower high, and then a sell off. This is how every major cyclical bull market ends, and major cyclical bear markets begin. The foundation is forming in front of our eyes.

As you can tell by the annotations and comments underneath the charts, we are quite possibly seeing the market top beginning to form. If the lower high follows the top we are guessing we are setting right now, then the fuel for the last little pop up will be the rest of QE2 buying completing. It will be an artificial manipulation of the markets, and unjustifiable, but nonetheless, it will be followed by a huge market sell off.

Setting The Tone: We Hope We Are Wrong

Now let's set the record straight...

---> Continue reading this post at shaneEdmund.com by clicking here.

As gas prices rise consumers are starting to feel the pain at the pump. Although oil is just now pumping over $100 barrel for the first time since 2008, one thing remains almost certain: oil is poised to have a strong run this summer. Blame it on demand, lack of supply, or Middle East revolutions, no matter what the blame is, it seems oil prices could ignite consumer incentive to look at electric cars. In this three part series we will: 
 

1. Investigate the case for electric car markets to see if it is even a feasible product.
2. Identify different companies making progress in the arena.
3. Present our assertions to the best potential stock investments.

The Federal tax credit of up to $7,500 for electric car buyers might help induce individuals to make the leap at low gas prices. Some electric car investors are banking on it. However, if gas prices continue to rise, the gas prices themselves could force many individuals to buy an electric car as it makes more financial sense on their budgets. If you are spending $300 a month at the pump, why not buy an electric car and spend $300 a month on a car payment, get a new car out of the deal, and then charge it on electrical outlets for a fraction of the gas price? This is a question I have been asking myself and I am heavily contemplating buying an electric car soon. This is what sparked the idea for this report.

Many contrarily object to the electric car movement. They say that the prices are out of line with other cars on the road so that the electric cars cannot outsell gas powered cars. One extremely important variable they forgot to assess is the offset of a higher car payment by not having to fuel up at the pump anymore! So if a car is $10,000 more than an equally equipped car (theoretically), your monthly payment may be only $100 to $200 more a month.

Gas Prices Offset Electric Car Premium Prices

The savings in not having gasoline purchases will far surpass this amount if you use the car to drive to work or take family vacations on the road! What the question really comes down to is this: Is the increased in cost for the car on a monthly basis higher or lower than what I am spending per month on gas? What if gas prices fall to $2? You could still be saving money. Better yet though, what if they rise to $5 a gallon, or more? Then your savings is phenomenal!

Electric car companies could then easily charge more money for their cars than gas powered car companies. This will help increase margins and pave a way for the new industry to have immense profits. There could be a lot of opportunities to invest in this new technology! It has tremendous value and potential for profits. This is something that bio fuels and solar-only cars did not have the capability to provide.

Ethanol was basically a bust. Investors who snapped up shares of Pacific Ethanol Inc (Nasdaq: PEIX) thinking that ethanol will be the new oil, quickly learned that externalizations can affect the successful adaptation of the consumer to a formidable technology. Pacific Ethanol loses almost $3 per share and trades for $0.69. The stock traded near $50 for some time. The failures of ethanol companies were not largely due to mismanagement, but a case of failed adaptation. The only companies that could really distribute the E-85 fuels to the consumers with ethanol friendly cars are oil companies. The conflict of interest here is what failed to let this technology take root. As an oil company, why would you:

1. Market a small product that has a small profit potential, that could threaten your entire business and create an alternative competition?
2. Invest in pumps to provide this new alternative?
3. Want to do anything with Ethanol as only a small number of cars on the road actually accept it, and the future of the adoption of E-85 is in the hands of politicians, a few patent hungry companies, and flawed in the concept of replacing gas (still 85% gas).

As you can see, ethanol was doomed from the start. Some companies such as Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), recently have said hydrogen powered cars may be the answer still. However, then you fall into the big problem of fueling stations that ethanol did. Electric cars can be charged anywhere and at home thanks to electrical power lines being more abundant than gas pumps. Hydrogen pumps would be costly to establish, just like our example of ethanol, and that major bottleneck would prevent it from ever taking off. This further makes us optimistic on electrical automobiles with business in mind. Let’s meet some contenders in this arena in part 2 of 3 directly on our site shaneEdmund.com

We feel one of the most important metrics to watch is the amount of loans seeing payments 30-89 days past due. This could suggest to us if the problem in the financial system is – at bare minimum – contained. If the amount of loans seeing payments 30-89 days past due is decreasing quarter over quarter, then we could suggest that the pipeline for potential sour loans going forward is diminishing. This is extremely important! Why would anyone want to invest risk capital to banks if the problem is not even contained? Let’s take a look at the chart below to see how loans are performing by FDIC backed institutions.

Q1 1991 to Q3 2010: Click on image to expand image.

The graph above (click here to enlarge) shows the total amount of dollars of loans held by FDIC-backed institutions were 30-89 days late. This graph, from right to left, starts with the first quarter of 1991 and ends to the left, with the third quarter of 2010. The 4th quarter data is not available yet for 2010. All of this data was taken from FDIC’s website and then crunched into a chart. Now let’s zoom into the last few year’s of data below:

Our analysis of the banking system is that there are valid improvements underway, but they are still far from perfect! We would definitely like to note that the trend is IMPROVING. Yes, that is right, FDIC-insured institutions are starting to experience improvements in their loan portfolios’ performances. Although the trend is improving, there are more loans 30-89 days past due in the 3rd quarter of 2010 then there was during all quarters in the 1990′s as well as every quarter in the years in the 2000′s (except for 2008, 2009 and 2010.)

So what does this mean for stocks? Absolutely nothing. Now you must determine if this is being priced into the markets already or not. Will bank stocks like Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) experience appreciation? Will the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) pop? We’ll leave these answers up to mother markets as time will only tell. One thing is certain though: the loan portfolios of FDIC-insured institutions will likely experience quarterly improvement if the trend in loans 30 to 89 days late continues to improve.

Source: shaneEdmund.com

Before the bell opens tomorrow we will see numbers for Housing Starts as well as for Jobless Claims. We expect those numbers to drive the trading day early. With a lot more emphasis on fixed income in the news, you’ll also want to keep your eyes on the 3-month and 6-month results at 11:00AM EST. They could also send stocks up or down and option holders in the S&P 500 SPDRs (NYSE: SPY) may be skittish as a result.

Note: No positions in SPY or equivalents.

Source: shaneEdmund.com

Looking at the chart, we can see JPMorgan Chase & Co has finally closed at a new weekly high within this channel for the first time since July of 2010. We think that the close we saw Friday of $41.43 is a bullish indication. The CCI closed with a bullish-breakout indicator (100+ reading) for the first time since March of 2010. It rose up 10% after that indication was confirmed. Needless to say, the chart below is worth a thousand words. If the worst of the financial crisis is behind us, then we may see JPMorgan (JPM) heading back to $48 per share over the next couple of months. With arguably the best CEO on Wall Street one could also suggest that the company is poised for a higher run not just on technicals alone, but on leadership and fundamental outlook as well.