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Hobski

Hobski
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  • Post rebound, Fed speakers lean hawkish [View news story]
    The Fed has been basing their policies on the stock market for years now. Sad, but true.
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Offshore beats by $0.36, misses on revenue [View news story]
    No one (including the company) knows how long the rig market will stay awful. The longevity of the downturn will determine PGN's fate. If it stays bad for another 2 years, I don't think they'll survive. If it improves by next summer or earlier, this could be a multi-bagger. That's the bet you're making. If they do go under, they will be a value trap case study for business schools everywhere.
    Aug 12, 2015. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CEO exit at Iconix Brand Group fires up selling [View news story]
    Why would anyone buy this stock today? Management has spent close to $1BN buying back stock over the last few years, and the only thing they have to show for it is an additional $950mm in net debt. The reduced share count doesn't even come close to putting a dent in the increased enterprise value. It's not like their results are all that different from 3 or 4 years ago. In fact, their cash flow has been trending down. Stay away until the conference call. Way too much uncertainty to touch this now.
    Aug 7, 2015. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fischer: Don't assume series of rate hikes [View news story]
    Truly shocking to see an economist perceive greater productivity growth as a problem that diminishes the medicine of higher inflation. Complete insanity.
    Mar 23, 2015. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Bulk Carriers files for $200M public offering [View news story]
    Why is this a surprise? They admitted last month that they had about a 100mm funding gap for 2015. There were numerous questions on the conference call about it. It's a big reason why the stock got crushed during/after their earnings call.
    Jan 9, 2015. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Offshore: Can This 'Bad Bank' Yield Returns? [View article]
    If their debt continues to trade in the low 90's, they should seriously consider using this year's free cash flow to buy some of that back. It's EPS accretive while delevering the balance sheet. Most importantly, initiating a dividend with so much rate uncertainty beyond mid 2015 is a coin flip. Why take that chance when you have better options available?
    Sep 9, 2014. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genco Shipping: Bond And Loan Prices Suggest Stock Is Overpriced [View article]
    It's hard to imagine its lenders not cutting a good deal for themselves if they restructure the debt in the next 10 months, since most of their debt is due before 3/31/14. That will leave equity holders with very little. I am long a few dry bulk shippers, but they have positive NAV's unlike GNK. The market value of their fleet would have to increase significantly for them to have a positive NAV. If they file for bankruptcy with a highly negative NAV, equity holders will again get nothing, since the debt holders will be receiving less than they're owed. NAV is what their lenders care about, since it reflects where they can sell their ships. Book value means nothing to their lenders, plus it's overstated anyway.
    Aug 28, 2013. 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Heath Terry hikes the price target on Amazon (AMZN +1%) to $355 from $325 in a move that would probably seem counterintuitive for virtually any other stock given that the company missed on both lines with its Q2 report Thursday evening and issued weak guidance. "We … believe Amazon is well positioned to benefit from accelerating global ecommerce growth, while leveraging its investment in technology, infrastructure, and customers into higher margin revenue streams," Terry says. That would be nice considering the company's operating margin was just 0.5% in Q2. [View news story]
    What I don't understand about the AMZN story is why their customers will stay loyal to them when they start raising prices? Won't that have an effect on their revenue? The strategy will probably work initially, but they're selling commodities. I don't understand why their customers won't seek out the lowest price. Really confused.
    Jul 26, 2013. 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The runaway rally in dry bulk shipping stocks isn't knocking the socks off of Wells Fargo. The investment firm is quick to point out that multiple companies in the sector are likely to see bankruptcy or restructuring. Proceed with caution: EGLE, GNK, DRYS, DSX, PRGN, NEWL, FREE, NM, SBLK, ESEA[View news story]
    If DSX goes bankrupt, they're all going bankrupt. Highly unlikely.
    Mar 22, 2013. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Can Meg Whitman Clean Up Leo's Leftover Mess? [View article]
    The best thing about the stock getting killed is that Meg and the board will be crucified if they even think about doing another big, overpriced acquisition. The stock price forces Meg and the board to sit on their hands. Their is some value in that.
    Dec 6, 2012. 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implementation of Basel III capital rules threatens the U.S. mortgage industry, says the MBA in a letter sent to the major bank regulators. Not just will overall mortgage lending decline, but mortgage lending in otherwise perfectly acceptable areas will as well. Also, capital penalties on mortgage servicing rights are forcing banks to sell these assets to others who may not be as equipped to handle them. Wilbur Ross (OCN) disagrees[View news story]
    The MBA is a disgrace. Should every bank lever back up to unreasonable levels to facilitate more lending? That's how we ended up in this mess. Plus, why would a specialty finance company (like OCN) buy MSRs if they weren't "equipped" to handle them? That's what they do for a living. Your members were not equipped to handle their balance sheets. That's why they're selling! No one cares that the buyers are getting a good deal, other than you. What a joke.
    Oct 19, 2012. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Imminent Liquidity Crunch And Share Price Collapse [View article]
    Kudos for pointing out how AMZN's cash flow benefits greatly from working capital management. It's been close to half of their free cash flow over the last 5 years. If/when their growth rate slows, working capital will be a drag on their free cash flow. It's a big reason why they try to sell everything to everyone. It can't go on in perpetuity.
    Sep 24, 2012. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold will shine in coming months thanks to QE3, strategists say, with Deutsche Bank predicting $2,000 next year and BofA setting a $2,400 target price for 2014. BofA's pick includes a warning that "any abrupt spike in real interest rates that puts an end to the upcoming monetary easing cycle may drive investors out of gold and create substantial downside pressure on prices." [View news story]
    News to BofA. A spike in real interest rates will annihilate most, if not all, asset classes. Especially given the current negative level of real interest rates.
    Sep 18, 2012. 03:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RadioShack - 10 Steps For Management To Attract Investor Interest [View article]
    Well said BenFE. New (and competent) management would be a huge plus. The board needs to get cleaned up as well. Awful decisions over the last few years by everyone involved.
    Jun 20, 2012. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oppenheimer's Brian Nagel says RadioShack's (RSH +1.9%) dividend is at risk of getting slashed or even eliminated as the company faces a cash crunch. At its current trading price, RSH trades with a gaudy 11.76% yield. [View news story]
    The company hasn't started burning cash yet. That's not the point. They will most likely start burning cash soon. How much they burn and when (if?) can they reverse it is the question. Clearly, management has no insight. Otherwise the stock wouldn't be trading where it is.
    Jun 19, 2012. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
41 Likes