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  • Draghi: ECB will do what it must to raise inflation [View news story]
    What Draghi should say is "Currency debasement is our only hope for prosperity". There are so many examples in history where that has ended well. Make sure you get your lecture series payments in gold, Mario.
    Nov 20, 2015. 07:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks' Fundamentally-Absurd Levels Portend Big Mean Reversion Higher [View article]
    I agree with you on the undervaluation now in the mining sector. I've bought a few miners in the last 6 months. However, the sector was crazy overvalued (relative to the gold price) for gold's levitation from 2006 till 2011. I realize you mention this, but it's a very important point for anyone new to this sector. That period of overvaluation is not coming back soon, and it should not be thought of as a baseline in valuation comparison.
    Nov 15, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks and gold lower, yields and dollar higher after FOMC [View news story]
    Watch what they do. What they say is useless balderdash.
    Oct 28, 2015. 03:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil slumps as Goldman says price could drop to $20 [View news story]
    So IEA is saying US production will decline 4%, while non-OPEC production will only decline about .2%? That's really odd considering non-OPEC production isn't massively lower cost than US production. I don't understand why the production cut difference in these two regions would be different by a factor of 20.
    Sep 11, 2015. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Post rebound, Fed speakers lean hawkish [View news story]
    The Fed has been basing their policies on the stock market for years now. Sad, but true.
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Offshore beats by $0.36, misses on revenue [View news story]
    No one (including the company) knows how long the rig market will stay awful. The longevity of the downturn will determine PGN's fate. If it stays bad for another 2 years, I don't think they'll survive. If it improves by next summer or earlier, this could be a multi-bagger. That's the bet you're making. If they do go under, they will be a value trap case study for business schools everywhere.
    Aug 12, 2015. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CEO exit at Iconix Brand Group fires up selling [View news story]
    Why would anyone buy this stock today? Management has spent close to $1BN buying back stock over the last few years, and the only thing they have to show for it is an additional $950mm in net debt. The reduced share count doesn't even come close to putting a dent in the increased enterprise value. It's not like their results are all that different from 3 or 4 years ago. In fact, their cash flow has been trending down. Stay away until the conference call. Way too much uncertainty to touch this now.
    Aug 7, 2015. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fischer: Don't assume series of rate hikes [View news story]
    Truly shocking to see an economist perceive greater productivity growth as a problem that diminishes the medicine of higher inflation. Complete insanity.
    Mar 23, 2015. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Bulk Carriers files for $200M public offering [View news story]
    Why is this a surprise? They admitted last month that they had about a 100mm funding gap for 2015. There were numerous questions on the conference call about it. It's a big reason why the stock got crushed during/after their earnings call.
    Jan 9, 2015. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Offshore: Can This 'Bad Bank' Yield Returns? [View article]
    If their debt continues to trade in the low 90's, they should seriously consider using this year's free cash flow to buy some of that back. It's EPS accretive while delevering the balance sheet. Most importantly, initiating a dividend with so much rate uncertainty beyond mid 2015 is a coin flip. Why take that chance when you have better options available?
    Sep 9, 2014. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genco Shipping: Bond And Loan Prices Suggest Stock Is Overpriced [View article]
    It's hard to imagine its lenders not cutting a good deal for themselves if they restructure the debt in the next 10 months, since most of their debt is due before 3/31/14. That will leave equity holders with very little. I am long a few dry bulk shippers, but they have positive NAV's unlike GNK. The market value of their fleet would have to increase significantly for them to have a positive NAV. If they file for bankruptcy with a highly negative NAV, equity holders will again get nothing, since the debt holders will be receiving less than they're owed. NAV is what their lenders care about, since it reflects where they can sell their ships. Book value means nothing to their lenders, plus it's overstated anyway.
    Aug 28, 2013. 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Heath Terry hikes the price target on Amazon (AMZN +1%) to $355 from $325 in a move that would probably seem counterintuitive for virtually any other stock given that the company missed on both lines with its Q2 report Thursday evening and issued weak guidance. "We … believe Amazon is well positioned to benefit from accelerating global ecommerce growth, while leveraging its investment in technology, infrastructure, and customers into higher margin revenue streams," Terry says. That would be nice considering the company's operating margin was just 0.5% in Q2. [View news story]
    What I don't understand about the AMZN story is why their customers will stay loyal to them when they start raising prices? Won't that have an effect on their revenue? The strategy will probably work initially, but they're selling commodities. I don't understand why their customers won't seek out the lowest price. Really confused.
    Jul 26, 2013. 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The runaway rally in dry bulk shipping stocks isn't knocking the socks off of Wells Fargo. The investment firm is quick to point out that multiple companies in the sector are likely to see bankruptcy or restructuring. Proceed with caution: EGLE, GNK, DRYS, DSX, PRGN, NEWL, FREE, NM, SBLK, ESEA[View news story]
    If DSX goes bankrupt, they're all going bankrupt. Highly unlikely.
    Mar 22, 2013. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Can Meg Whitman Clean Up Leo's Leftover Mess? [View article]
    The best thing about the stock getting killed is that Meg and the board will be crucified if they even think about doing another big, overpriced acquisition. The stock price forces Meg and the board to sit on their hands. Their is some value in that.
    Dec 6, 2012. 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implementation of Basel III capital rules threatens the U.S. mortgage industry, says the MBA in a letter sent to the major bank regulators. Not just will overall mortgage lending decline, but mortgage lending in otherwise perfectly acceptable areas will as well. Also, capital penalties on mortgage servicing rights are forcing banks to sell these assets to others who may not be as equipped to handle them. Wilbur Ross (OCN) disagrees[View news story]
    The MBA is a disgrace. Should every bank lever back up to unreasonable levels to facilitate more lending? That's how we ended up in this mess. Plus, why would a specialty finance company (like OCN) buy MSRs if they weren't "equipped" to handle them? That's what they do for a living. Your members were not equipped to handle their balance sheets. That's why they're selling! No one cares that the buyers are getting a good deal, other than you. What a joke.
    Oct 19, 2012. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment