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Hobski

Hobski
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  • Genco Shipping: Bond And Loan Prices Suggest Stock Is Overpriced [View article]
    It's hard to imagine its lenders not cutting a good deal for themselves if they restructure the debt in the next 10 months, since most of their debt is due before 3/31/14. That will leave equity holders with very little. I am long a few dry bulk shippers, but they have positive NAV's unlike GNK. The market value of their fleet would have to increase significantly for them to have a positive NAV. If they file for bankruptcy with a highly negative NAV, equity holders will again get nothing, since the debt holders will be receiving less than they're owed. NAV is what their lenders care about, since it reflects where they can sell their ships. Book value means nothing to their lenders, plus it's overstated anyway.
    Aug 28 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Heath Terry hikes the price target on Amazon (AMZN +1%) to $355 from $325 in a move that would probably seem counterintuitive for virtually any other stock given that the company missed on both lines with its Q2 report Thursday evening and issued weak guidance. "We … believe Amazon is well positioned to benefit from accelerating global ecommerce growth, while leveraging its investment in technology, infrastructure, and customers into higher margin revenue streams," Terry says. That would be nice considering the company's operating margin was just 0.5% in Q2. [View news story]
    What I don't understand about the AMZN story is why their customers will stay loyal to them when they start raising prices? Won't that have an effect on their revenue? The strategy will probably work initially, but they're selling commodities. I don't understand why their customers won't seek out the lowest price. Really confused.
    Jul 26 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The runaway rally in dry bulk shipping stocks isn't knocking the socks off of Wells Fargo. The investment firm is quick to point out that multiple companies in the sector are likely to see bankruptcy or restructuring. Proceed with caution: EGLE, GNK, DRYS, DSX, PRGN, NEWL, FREE, NM, SBLK, ESEA[View news story]
    If DSX goes bankrupt, they're all going bankrupt. Highly unlikely.
    Mar 22 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Can Meg Whitman Clean Up Leo's Leftover Mess? [View article]
    The best thing about the stock getting killed is that Meg and the board will be crucified if they even think about doing another big, overpriced acquisition. The stock price forces Meg and the board to sit on their hands. Their is some value in that.
    Dec 6 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implementation of Basel III capital rules threatens the U.S. mortgage industry, says the MBA in a letter sent to the major bank regulators. Not just will overall mortgage lending decline, but mortgage lending in otherwise perfectly acceptable areas will as well. Also, capital penalties on mortgage servicing rights are forcing banks to sell these assets to others who may not be as equipped to handle them. Wilbur Ross (OCN) disagrees[View news story]
    The MBA is a disgrace. Should every bank lever back up to unreasonable levels to facilitate more lending? That's how we ended up in this mess. Plus, why would a specialty finance company (like OCN) buy MSRs if they weren't "equipped" to handle them? That's what they do for a living. Your members were not equipped to handle their balance sheets. That's why they're selling! No one cares that the buyers are getting a good deal, other than you. What a joke.
    Oct 19 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Imminent Liquidity Crunch And Share Price Collapse [View article]
    Kudos for pointing out how AMZN's cash flow benefits greatly from working capital management. It's been close to half of their free cash flow over the last 5 years. If/when their growth rate slows, working capital will be a drag on their free cash flow. It's a big reason why they try to sell everything to everyone. It can't go on in perpetuity.
    Sep 24 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold will shine in coming months thanks to QE3, strategists say, with Deutsche Bank predicting $2,000 next year and BofA setting a $2,400 target price for 2014. BofA's pick includes a warning that "any abrupt spike in real interest rates that puts an end to the upcoming monetary easing cycle may drive investors out of gold and create substantial downside pressure on prices." [View news story]
    News to BofA. A spike in real interest rates will annihilate most, if not all, asset classes. Especially given the current negative level of real interest rates.
    Sep 18 03:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RadioShack - 10 Steps For Management To Attract Investor Interest [View article]
    Well said BenFE. New (and competent) management would be a huge plus. The board needs to get cleaned up as well. Awful decisions over the last few years by everyone involved.
    Jun 20 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oppenheimer's Brian Nagel says RadioShack's (RSH +1.9%) dividend is at risk of getting slashed or even eliminated as the company faces a cash crunch. At its current trading price, RSH trades with a gaudy 11.76% yield. [View news story]
    The company hasn't started burning cash yet. That's not the point. They will most likely start burning cash soon. How much they burn and when (if?) can they reverse it is the question. Clearly, management has no insight. Otherwise the stock wouldn't be trading where it is.
    Jun 19 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Supervalu (SVU +1.7%) could attract a buyout after its share price fell to a 30-year low this week, according to Barclays. On the plus side, the company is expected to turn a profit for the first time in three years and boasts the industry‚Äôs highest free cash flow yield, but the downer is that its debt is 7X its market cap. [View news story]
    Debt/MKT Cap? Debt/Ebitda and Debt/Free Cash Flow are critical metrics. Why would a buyer care about debt/mkt cap?
    Jun 13 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Bancorp (USB +1%) and Comerica (CMA +5.2%) each posted Q1 earnings gains of more than 25% (I, II), thanks to increased lending and lower credit costs and loan-loss provisions, offering a bullish take on the economy and reinforcing the notion that smaller, regional banks are recovering more strongly from the financial crisis than the giants.  [View news story]
    It's great that the Obama administration is espousing the insightful economic analysis of great South American leaders such as Kirchner and Chavez. They never waver in their support of economic illiteracy.
    Apr 17 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping: Overvalued Relative To Baltic Dry Index [View article]
    I'm using market prices for 2nd hand ships. I use google, Lloyd's list, pretty much whatever I can find. The older Panamaxes (2000-2005) look like they're worth in the $18-22mm range, the newer ones (built after 2006) around $22-25mm. The older Capes are in the low $30mm range, and the newer Capes are in the high $30mm range. Diana also puts an estimate of their ship's market value in their 20F, so I'm waiting to see their opinion of their asset value. This is much more about a range of values as opposed to pinpointing a number. I did see that a 2005 Panamax was bought at the beginning of March for $21.6mm. Also, Diana paid $32.5mm for a 2010 Panamax in November of last year.
    Mar 23 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping: Overvalued Relative To Baltic Dry Index [View article]
    Net Asset Value (especially given that vessel market prices and charter rates are close to a trough) is much more useful than book value. I get Diana's NAV to be in the range of 7.50-8.00. The stock is very compelling at those levels.
    Mar 22 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The worsening Greek economy means the country will need an additional €15B (on top of the €130B bailout), says an EU official. The EU/IMF calculates the country needs to bring its GDP/debt level to 120% for a sustainable situation. Unexplained is how piling on additional debt (which is what the €15B would be) accomplishes that. "Get out right now."  [View news story]
    How is 120% Debt/GDP a sustainable situation for a country that has already defaulted 5 times in the last 200 years and has shown little interest in paying or collecting taxes? 20% Debt/GDP might even be a stretch.
    Feb 2 04:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hudson City Bancorp: Concerns Are Overblown [View article]
    HCBK doesn't do conference calls. I've only been following it for the last few months, but I've never found an earnings conference call transcript from the recent past.
    Nov 30 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
32 Comments
31 Likes