Agrippa

Why Sales Estimates for Dendreon's Provenge Are Too Low

Provenge demonstrated 4 months of survival benefit versus placebo (not standard of care) with no improvement in quality of life, time to progression, or PSA levels - in short, this therapy hasn't been shown to retard the disease at all. Additionally, IMPACT only reached its endpoint (22.5% RoD reduction vs. 22% minimum) in April after failing to reach it in October, and then combining results from an earlier trial. I know everyone assumes FDA approval based on the SPA they signed, but I don't see it as a sure thing, not to mention the cost/benefit analysis of a $70,000 drug with limited benefit (remember the 4 months isn't vs. standard of care).