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George Krum, aka OddsTrader, has been involved in trading and technical analysis since 1996. His passion for developing innovative trading tools and indicators has culminated in the development of several financial apps available from Apple and Amazon.
My company:
OT Signals
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  • Fundamental Vs. Technical Targets (Part III)

    You can't blame GS for trying hard.

    After flip-flopping between upgrading and downgrading the market in just two weeks in July, they decided one more time to upgrade US equities and are not shy about providing upside targets for their favorite stocks.

    As usual, in this series of articles, we will compare their targets against OddsTrader's channel targets, and will compare the results at the end of the three month period.

    Close is the Sept. 2nd closing price, GS stands for Goldman Sachs price targets, OT stands for Oddstrader Outside Top (long) channel targets, and Average is the average predicted gain for the GS and OT targets.

    Previous articles from this series can be found here, and here.

    Those who don't share GS's bullish outlook for the US economy will be pleased to know that OddsTrader provides downside targets as well, along with position sizing, risk management and stock scanning tools.

    Sep 07 5:44 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Fundamental Vs. Technical Targets (Part II)

    Last April we wrote about a new list of 40 stocks with the most upside potential, released by GS. We cautioned our readers that, given market conditions at the time, they should consider downside targets as well. For those who haven't gone through the trouble of looking up these numbers, we're republishing the original list complete with bullish and bearish channel targets.

    OT Target stands for the Outside Top (long) channel price level, ITCh stands for Inside Top (short) channel, IBCh stands for Inside Bottom (short) channel, and OBCh stands for Outside Bottom (long) channel:

    It is interesting to note that while none of the GS targets have been met yet, 25 stocks have already reached our bullish or bearish targets (highlighted cells). A few more stocks came very close, and although we didn't highlight them above, we are confident that they too will hit their targets soon. It is also interesting to note that the targets that were met were evenly split between bullish and bearish targets. It all goes to show that OddsTrader performs equally well in all market conditions.

    Stay tuned for more follow up results in the second half of 2014.

    May 10 9:49 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Fundamental V. Technical Targets

    In October 2013 we wrote here about a little experiment comparing the end-of-year price targets of two baskets of stocks recommended by GS and JPM, with the equivalent price targets obtained from our flagship OddsTrader app. At the end of that article we promised to follow up with an analysis of the results.

    Since Goldman Sachs has released a new list of 40 stocks with most upside potential, we decided to review the outcome of our 2013 study and begin another one.

    To say that we are pleased with the results would be an understatement. In summary, only 4 out of 41 price targets supplied by GS and JPM (less than 10%) were more accurate than the OddsTrader targets. In fact, our targets for the JPM portfolio differed from the actual year-end prices by an average of .25 cents (compared to $3.25 for JPM's targets), and by $3 for the GS portfolio (compared to $11 for GS's targets).

    Which brings us to the current GS list of undervalued stocks. Below we repeat our experiment from last year by comparing GS's targets derived from their fundamental analysis of these stocks, to our technical analysis targets based on Hurst channels. Our only guiding principle in selecting the channels is that they obey Hurst's main rule that a properly drawn channel should contain all but a few extreme data points. We should also note that the targets we provide are for the first half of 2014, and that we changed the inaccurate prices reported by BI for PVH, BTU and APA.

    Here is the list:

    As usual, we'll follow up with the results in the second half of 2014.

    If you are concerned that the US stock market may be ready for a pull-back which will drag all stocks down irrespective of their strong fundamentals, keep in mind that OddsTrader also contains tools for position sizing and risk and portfolio management. The app provides both upside and downside targets (a rarity for Wall Street research), along with stop/loss and entry/exit levels, risk/reward ratios, volatility measures, bullish and bearish swing targets, cycles, and more.

    (click to enlarge)

    In summary, our app provided a lot more realistic price targets than those of JPM and GS. It also allowed us to estimate with ease the quality of their recommendations and determine, well in advance, which one is more speculative, and which one is more likely to meet its targets.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 06 5:01 AM | Link | 4 Comments
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