Seeking Alpha

OddsTrader's  Instablog

Send Message
George Krum, aka OddsTrader, has been involved in trading and technical analysis since 1996. His passion for developing innovative trading tools and indicators has culminated in the development of several financial apps available from Apple and Amazon.
My company:
OT Signals
My blog:
CIT Dates
View OddsTrader's Instablogs on:
  • Market Seasonality

    From a seasonal point of view, the year is divided into 15 weeks with strong bullish bias, seven weeks with strong bearish bias, and the rest with a weak or mixed bias.

    We conducted a study of the seasonal performance of the major indices in 2014 using the following ETFs: DJIA, SP500, IWM and NDX. The study was based on one simple criteria: buy at the open on Moday of weeks with strong bullish bias (better than 70% bullish rating according to OT Seasonal) and sell at the close on Friday at the end of the bullish period.

    The combined return was 33%, for an average gain of 8.3%, with 71% winning trades. Not a bad result considering that on average only 13 weeks were spent in the market.

    Looking at the present, we note that the first period with strong negative bias for 2015 is behind us and all the major averages are in the red for the year:

    (click to enlarge)

    Seasonality suggests, however, that several consecutive weeks with strong bullish bias are to follow and are likely to set the tone for the next couple of months. For the bullish case, it is critical that the indices manage to break above the January highs during that period. An inability to do so, coupled with the absence of strong bullish seasonal trends during the second half of February and the beginning of March, will suggest that the bear trend is here to stay for several months.

    An easy way to monitor trend is to follow the interaction between price and weekly trend bars. Designed specifically to eliminate noise from random price moves, trend bars provide a novel visual and technical approach to defining trend:

    (Chart courtesy of OT Seasonal)

    It is interesting to note that combining trend bar signals with seasonal bias in the study referenced above would have helped avoid the worst losses while letting winners run longer for even better results.

    Jan 18 3:01 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Fundamental Vs. Technical Targets (Part III)

    You can't blame GS for trying hard.

    After flip-flopping between upgrading and downgrading the market in just two weeks in July, they decided one more time to upgrade US equities and are not shy about providing upside targets for their favorite stocks.

    As usual, in this series of articles, we will compare their targets against OddsTrader's channel targets, and will compare the results at the end of the three month period.

    Close is the Sept. 2nd closing price, GS stands for Goldman Sachs price targets, OT stands for Oddstrader Outside Top (long) channel targets, and Average is the average predicted gain for the GS and OT targets.

    Previous articles from this series can be found here, and here.

    Those who don't share GS's bullish outlook for the US economy will be pleased to know that OddsTrader provides downside targets as well, along with position sizing, risk management and stock scanning tools.

    Sep 07 5:44 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Fundamental Vs. Technical Targets (Part II)

    Last April we wrote about a new list of 40 stocks with the most upside potential, released by GS. We cautioned our readers that, given market conditions at the time, they should consider downside targets as well. For those who haven't gone through the trouble of looking up these numbers, we're republishing the original list complete with bullish and bearish channel targets.

    OT Target stands for the Outside Top (long) channel price level, ITCh stands for Inside Top (short) channel, IBCh stands for Inside Bottom (short) channel, and OBCh stands for Outside Bottom (long) channel:

    It is interesting to note that while none of the GS targets have been met yet, 25 stocks have already reached our bullish or bearish targets (highlighted cells). A few more stocks came very close, and although we didn't highlight them above, we are confident that they too will hit their targets soon. It is also interesting to note that the targets that were met were evenly split between bullish and bearish targets. It all goes to show that OddsTrader performs equally well in all market conditions.

    Stay tuned for more follow up results in the second half of 2014.

    May 10 9:49 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.