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George Krum, aka OddsTrader, has been involved in trading and technical analysis since 1996. His passion for developing innovative trading tools and indicators has culminated in the development of several financial apps available from Apple and Amazon.
My company:
OT Signals
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  • SPY And Jobs Report Patterns

    Two weeks ago we warned that after rallying during the strong seasonality window in February, the major averages will enter a sideways/down phase.

    A few days later, on February 25th we followed up on our blog with an SP500 chart showing areas of support and resistance. The updated version of this chart which shows dates of jobs reports for the last seven months in blue, tells an interesting story and gives us clues about what to expect next week:

    (click to enlarge)

    When the indices sold off on the day of the jobs report (Friday), they had a strong snapback rally the following Tuesday (December, January and February). When the indices rallied on the day of the report, they sold off the following Monday and Tuesday, and had a snapback rally on Wednesday (September and October).

    Trend Bars™, once again, did a great job at detecting the subtle changes in trend, despite choppy market action at the end of February and the beginning of January:

    (click to enlarge)

    (Chart courtesy of OT Seasonal)

    Mar 08 9:20 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Market Seasonality

    From a seasonal point of view, the year is divided into 15 weeks with strong bullish bias, seven weeks with strong bearish bias, and the rest with a weak or mixed bias.

    We conducted a study of the seasonal performance of the major indices in 2014 using the following ETFs: DJIA, SP500, IWM and NDX. The study was based on one simple criteria: buy at the open on Moday of weeks with strong bullish bias (better than 70% bullish rating according to OT Seasonal) and sell at the close on Friday at the end of the bullish period.

    The combined return was 33%, for an average gain of 8.3%, with 71% winning trades. Not a bad result considering that on average only 13 weeks were spent in the market.

    Looking at the present, we note that the first period with strong negative bias for 2015 is behind us and all the major averages are in the red for the year:

    (click to enlarge)

    Seasonality suggests, however, that several consecutive weeks with strong bullish bias are to follow and are likely to set the tone for the next couple of months. For the bullish case, it is critical that the indices manage to break above the January highs during that period. An inability to do so, coupled with the absence of strong bullish seasonal trends during the second half of February and the beginning of March, will suggest that the bear trend is here to stay for several months.

    An easy way to monitor trend is to follow the interaction between price and weekly trend bars. Designed specifically to eliminate noise from random price moves, trend bars provide a novel visual and technical approach to defining trend:

    (Chart courtesy of OT Seasonal)

    It is interesting to note that combining trend bar signals with seasonal bias in the study referenced above would have helped avoid the worst losses while letting winners run longer for even better results.

    Jan 18 3:01 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Fundamental Vs. Technical Targets (Part III)

    You can't blame GS for trying hard.

    After flip-flopping between upgrading and downgrading the market in just two weeks in July, they decided one more time to upgrade US equities and are not shy about providing upside targets for their favorite stocks.

    As usual, in this series of articles, we will compare their targets against OddsTrader's channel targets, and will compare the results at the end of the three month period.

    Close is the Sept. 2nd closing price, GS stands for Goldman Sachs price targets, OT stands for Oddstrader Outside Top (long) channel targets, and Average is the average predicted gain for the GS and OT targets.

    Previous articles from this series can be found here, and here.

    Those who don't share GS's bullish outlook for the US economy will be pleased to know that OddsTrader provides downside targets as well, along with position sizing, risk management and stock scanning tools.

    Tags: ACT, AMT, CMCSA, CMI, CRM, DAL, EOG, FB, HAL, MA, MCK, MET, MON, NFLX, WMB
    Sep 07 5:44 AM | Link | Comment!
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