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Federal Government: Completely Out of Control?

Businesses have survived this year by cutting employees, cutting salaries, cutting perks, cutting anything extra to stay afloat. At the same time, government bureaucracies are increasing salaries and benefits, money ostensibly received from tax receipts. THe gap between their projected tax revenues and reality is widening every day, and yet the government amoeba keeps growing.

How? By printing money, and I believe, by tampering with government statistical reports. Noone with a shred of common sense and a pair of eyes could look at the empty storefronts, the shoppers with no bags, the almost empty restaurants, etc. in any city or town in this country (except for Washington and Wall Street) and believe that this country can afford the bureaucratic monarchy obama has put together.

The problem is that this monarchy is making the laws and regulations that will continue to suck the life out of business and private lives. We are truly imperiled.

Why Eric Hovde Is Wrong About General Growth Properties

I appreciate that your analysis is impressively detailed. I disagree with your expectations for cash flow. Retail has been stretched to its limits this past year, and my prediction is for massive bankruptcies and store closings in 2010. Extension of loans to these stores will be curtailed. Customers are, on the other end, paying later. Everyone is trying to manage a diminishing cash position up and down the food chain.

Many small retailers have stayed alive this past year by not taking salaries, firing employees, etc. THat cannot continue for another year.

The WSJ, Obama and Bankers

The WSJ Editorials are the one sane, knowledgeable voice in this period of financial insanity. Why shouldn't they be critical of Obama? He does not understand, yet still despises, capitalism.

He does understand $3 Million worth of campaign contributions, however. He is OK with that kind of "fat cat".

Why So Much Skepticism Regarding the Rally?

THe so-called forward thinking of the market has now been compromised by the merging of government with private markets. The banks, for example, are almost impossible to value, and yet their market cap has been rising spectacularly since March. What is happening? Just the one investment (trading) theme left--invest with the Federal Government.

Not being able to stomach doing that, I have chosen bear ETFs, MLPs for the yield, and small biotech for future buyout or growth. No, not the high fliers for '09, but when the Fed Govt's true debt burden is uncovered by the CHinese (the kimono will eventually lift), the equity market will go down far lower than can be imagined today.

Volcker's Wake Up Call: Spread the Word

Obama and his cronies have continually snubbed Volcker, as he will not play their "reflate anything that moves to give the illusion of prosperity for Main Street and the reality of prosperity to Wall Street and its huge Democratic donors."

THat silly, silly nauseating "green shoots" idiocy of Bernanke will go down as one of the vilest lies ever told by the Federal Government. Volcker , during that time, could not even get his phone calls returned by obama or his perennial campaign staff.

Obama on Wall St. Bonuses

I think that these bank CEOs are totally credulous and unfit for management if they think that "buying" protection from Obama's attacks will actually work. Better to speak the truth to obama and deal with it. These creepy, creepy acquiesence is sickening.

Recession Ends for Summers: Anyone Else?

Wall Street and Washington have always been bubbles of thought and action unrelated to Main Street. It got to be a serious problem in the last year,however, when these two bubbles merged and had the same singular interests. Tha natural push back that Wall Street should have had against economically insane policies was perverted by the bail out and quasi financial CEOs like Jeff Immelt of GE.

CNBC: No Longer 'Tout TV'?

When a major business network (CNBC) is owned by a company that is vying for the favor and protection of Obama (General Electric), any idea of journalistic integrity is dead. Look what they did to Santelli.

Goldman Sachs: Underperforming Since the March 9th Low

Washington will throw Goldman Sachs under the bus to score political points, large GS investors are calling for an end to the faux partnership practice of giving most of the profits to top employees instead of to the shareholders, and the new financial regulations will be far more onerous to the trading firms (GS) than others.

GS has made some spectacularly good bets in the past. Betting on Obama and his "protection" will not prove to be one of them. There is just too much bad press--obama and his cronies will throw Goldman to the mob.

Home Values and Retail Sales: Conspicuous Correlation

THe bottom line for retail spending is either increasing household incomes (not), sufficient cash flow due to low household debt levels (not), reduced household tax (local, state, federal) burden (not), easy access to consumer credit via credit cards or home equity loans (not).

So where is all of this enthusiasm for retail and the retail stocks coming from? Analysts and TV commentators who are assuming away these realities, and thinking that this so called recovery will act in the same way as in the past.

My business is directly related to all these things, and I will tell you that the government statistics are not telling the truth. I deal with all income levels and price points, and there is no positive consumer sentiment. THe polls are just asking leading questions, people act differently than they say they will, and no one, no one, feels like the future holds certainty.

I think that there should be a "Satiety Index". After that last decade of gorging on acquisitions funded largely by debt, people feel sated. Most customers I talk to keep saying the same thing--"I don't want anything, I want to lighten up". Until this cultural shift moves on, I just don't see why retail stocks have the multiples they do.

Quantitative Easing Helps Wall Street Traders

Whyever would anyone think that the banks, having received nearly free money that they can control, would then lend to businesses that they cannot? Businesses, that by any measure, would be forced to contend with increasingly onerous government regulations and taxes and a beleagured and indebted consumer?

The serious, serious lack of understanding of how business and finance really works in the world is the hallmark of Bernanke and Obama. ANd the so called businessmen that Obama "listens" to are vying for government contracts (jeff Immelt of GE). THe one person he said he would get counsel from is Paul Volcker who he has frozen out.

The lack of common business sense in this administration is staggering. And the Wall Street money center banks are not going to call him on the painfully obvious because they are trading with that free money at enormously profitable rates. Without having to worry about any new loans going sour,

Richard Russell: Downturn Will Be 'Vicious'

When the banks have finished their secondaries, the Fed will take its foot off the pedal for two reasons. ONe, the banks will not be able to come back for another round of TARP because of the political climate, and two, the unprecedented amount of debt the government is trying to sell will begin to see more frequent under-subscription because of other sovreign economies in trouble. The individual and institutional investor will not be able to sop up all of the Treasury offerings that are scheduled to pay for this wild government spending spree.

Therefore, the Fed will Have to raise interest rates to get their auctions completed ( or nearly so). THere are far, far too many people in this administration who have never had a day in an accounting class or an hour in a real business environment. They believe in the infinite power and wisdom of government solutions.

Market forces (despite the Federal Government's big foot) will win in the end.

Obubblomics: Prepare for Markets to Get Worse

I agree with Mr. Big. The Federal Government does not have infintite spending powers. Though the bond market "vigilantes" have been neutered by the Government;s huge involvement, they are now beginning to show some resolve again, and are showing signs of resistance to the so- called quantitative easing (what a euphemism!).

The equity markets in my view are not accurate nor forward looking. August 2007 peaks? The rise in prices expecting the economy to be growing at a fast clip in mid 2009? It just isn't the forecaster it once was. Maybe it is the huge influence of HFT, maybe it is the confusion caused by 24/7 news flow, maybe the globalization of markets is causing the trends to go haywire, I don't know. But I do think that the equity markets have gone off their rails.

My best guess is that the enormous Whale of Big Federal Government involved (and owning) huge sections of what was once the free markets has completely skewed the stock market's foresight.

A VIX Xmas Card

I would ask myself if the world and its markets are more stable, thereby implying the lower VIX lauded by the author. Or is it that the insurance doubtless purchased on the long positions has been done in a way that does not affect the VIX indicator?

If common sense tells you that instability is still all around us, then the quiet VIX is a false signal. I would be fearful of taking so much solace.

Meredith Whitney Says Banking Sector Problems Are Getting Worse

Investors are making their own mis-judgments if they take a fundamental analyst's views and analysis of a company (which are generally very detailed and probably not fully available to the outsider) and expect that same analyst to be a technical trader.

To call Meredith Whitney "wrong" is to entirely misuse the value of the fundamental analyst's work. Take the assessment of a fundamentalist, and then apply a trader's judgement. THe "stock" and the "company" are two entirely different things.