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  • Is A Bond Rally Due? [View article]
    Same tinkling feeling here, Mike. Also, gamma is so rich I'm selling it. Receiver spread (I need some protection obviously, if I believe a short rally is due) plus otm payer
    Aug 1, 2013. 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Safer Alternative To High-Dividend Equities [View article]
    Analytically, a divident paying company's debt and equity can be viewed as follows: its debt enjoyes capital structure advantage, while the equity embeds call option to upside. The interest rate angle is just wrong, because any fixed stream of cash flow is subject to rates, it is easy to assess and shouldn't be point of discussion. Therefore the valueation reduces to: does the capital structure advantage out weigh the equity upside? Once you realize that, then your conclusion should be, just like everything else, it depends. If a company's operation model doesn't allow itself to accumulate share holder equity, then I totally agree with the author. Since I've never studied these companies in depth I can only suspect, that most high div paying companies don't have good track records of boosting net equity.
    Aug 1, 2013. 12:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Quick Thought On Municipal Bankruptcy [View article]
    Your posting actually delivered an unindended but true message: that the stoic wealthy do take risk in accumulating their wealth, and some of the risk capital that they allocated is indeed used to finance the people that seemingly hate them, regardless of how the receivers can mismanage this financing. I am not wealthy, but I happen to understand that to creat value one needs capital, the rich people's capital, and put that capital at risk. If I want to be in a position to attract this capital, I'd better not kill the goose that lays eggs, or promote to do so.
    Jul 25, 2013. 03:13 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Depression With Benefits: The Macro Case For mREITs [View article]
    That's a very very, long justification for mREITs, more suited for arguing for being long fixed income. Sure, if US is heading to being the next Japan, why not? Except that we are seeing evidence to the contrary. Not a great recovery, of course, but another Japan? Too early to call, WAY TOO early to act on.
    Jul 11, 2013. 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Citigroup [View article]
    Mostly because we are in a different regulartory regime that will curb the ways money centers such as Citi can make money. Growth through leverage is just impossible, and they were forced to sell off many good assets. In short, it is not what it used to be. If you look at NAV recovery, you may have a story of $60/shr, which I subscribe to. But north of that is more of a dream than reasonable expectation.
    Jun 23, 2013. 03:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone For This Week: Citigroup [View article]
    "it still needs to grow after-tax profit (NOPAT) by nearly 12% compounded annually for 15 years to justify its current stock price of ~$50/share."

    would really like to learn more about this way of valuation...
    Jun 19, 2013. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Slow Decay Of The Microsoft Consumer [View article]
    what's the trade?
    Apr 24, 2012. 05:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 2012 Predictions Based On Apple Guidance History And Actual Growth [View article]
    can we just all agree, that no matter how good a company is (apple is a great company), at $530bln market cap, it's a cumbersome stock to lug around?
    Apr 24, 2012. 05:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S.A. Is Not The Roman Empire [View article]
    Spot on! In a democracy, people make their government. Our people don't like truth...
    Feb 15, 2012. 09:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Transparently Dovish Fed [View article]
    He shouldn't have used that tone, but he made a good argument nevertheless. Any business that will fail at 1.5% short rate while surviving at 0.25% is not a sustainable one, and hence is not to be encouraged.
    Jan 30, 2012. 03:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fixing Wall Street: Reimagining - Not Just Repairing - Banking [View article]
    Obviously, any anti-bank piece is going to be popular these days. It is amazing how we human beings inherently like to blame an evil bunch for our own failures. Banks or bankers don't live in vacuum, they are part of our system where all good and bad coexist. Trying to produce a system where only the good exist and the bad perish was, is, and will be futile. Because we human beings are the problem, with our greed and fear. I am so tired of hearing how banks spoiled everything. Just about everything can spoil everything! Only reward but no punishment? Really? BoA and Citi all got bailed out, but their stocks all fell 90+% from the peak anyways, didn't they? That's not punishment for the share holders? So their employees got paid too much? You are not hearing massive layoffs are coming from banking sector? In fact, all banking positions are open anyone who wants to have shot at it. You can try it too. How come nobody complains the rediculous fees trial lawyers charge, which undoubtedly contributed to many failures such as our medical system? Beating on the wounded is not only useless, but is also cowardly, because one dares not look at himself and say, I am at fault too.
    Oct 18, 2011. 06:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Bulls Have To Do To Take Control [View article]
    jsteinman: we usually want to hear reasoning behind a conclusion. Care to share why you think we are in a bull market?
    Oct 6, 2011. 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Japanese Businesses Worth More Dead Than Alive? [View article]
    When learned minds talk about the concept of value trap, they ususally cite Japanese under valued stocks as perfect examples. I know numerous asia focused H/F friends who have lingering bitter taste in their mouth brought by this sector. In fact, Japanese market is weird in many ways: a boyant currency despite horrid economical conditions and persistant puny yield, which itself is a puzzle defying common wisdom - you'd think nobody wants to own bonds from a government that virtually has no chance of repaying, that gets downgraded repeatedly. But hey, the Japanese investors seem to be a different bunch entirely.
    Sep 26, 2011. 05:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Yields Tumble [View article]
    Not that I believe the following, but worth of sharing with you guys here...
    Sep 23, 2011. 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Policymakers Need To Understand That These Are Not The 1970s [View article]
    "Excessive leverage is a real problem, and in fact one that can be addressed via inflation".

    On the surface it looks like an infallable argument - what's wrong with one's debt virtually becomes worthless or trivial?

    What's wrong is that whatever you earn buys you little at the same time. Alas, there is no free lunch after all...
    Sep 21, 2011. 04:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment