The Recusant

Unusual Activity in GLL: Are Traders Turning Bearish on Gold?

Gold climbed to $1191+ today, news is out that India wants more gold, banks are telling their smaller customers to get their bullion out of their vaults to make way for the big customers, the prospect of inflation and continued unemployment are confirmed by the administration, and yet some people think that gold is overbought or in a bubble. What a short squeeze this will be!

Gold Prices Move Higher in a World of Paper Currencies and Paper Promises

Gold is overbought in the short term only if the dollar is over weak in the short term. If we're given a reason to expect the dollar to regain its stature among currencies then I will sell my gold positions. Until then, whether short term or long term, I'm clutching gold until you pry it from my cold dead hands.

Over-Bought Means Over-Good for Gold

gambittrader wrote: "Techincally Gold needs a pullback its extremely overbought."

Nah, the dollar is oversold.

Is It Time for a Gold Pullback?

A better question would be, is it time for the dollar to increase in value? And since there is no logical reason for the dollar to rise, especially against other currencies, why would gold decline?

Pan American Silver vs. the Silver ETF: Which Is the Better Investment?

frdm45 wrote: "...Revett Minerals has a similar in-situ value to Pan Am, twice the cash costs of extracting the silver, but 1/100th the share price, with no country risk."

Revett Minerals is an excellent choice for a "safe country" miner (most would consider Montana safe and it's unlikely the U.S. would nationalize its PM mines). Their profits come from their Troy Mine and the claim they have for their Rock Creek Project would propel them financially well out of the red, but this project is under litigation for environmental concerns. Opening it up should be approved but then again...so, Revett Minerals has a certain risk also.

Gold: Supply and Demand Continues to Evolve

sorgmot wrote: "I am nerves about owning physical gold as it was confiscated by the USA Federal Government in the 1930's."

Not to worry, the confiscation was mostly voluntary and from what I remember reading, less than 15% of the gold was recovered that way. But to be on the safe side, buy your bullion from known bullion vendors, buy amounts under $10,000 at a time (so you don't have to fill in an IRS form), and always pay in cash. Happy investing!

Cognitive Dissonance: Thoughts About the Dollar Carry Trade

Once I never believed in UFOs either, until me and a friend...well, now THAT was cognitive dissonance! To assume that the commodities are not pegged to the dollar couldn't be that mind altering but the reactions of oil and gold and other commodities to the falling dollar are actually a reversed pegging now that foreign countries are viewing the greenback as less potent a reserve currency and investors are scrambling for safe havens. Regardless of the shorts playing against it, the dollar is devaluing and in the long run will take a substantial fall. This is not unpatriotic, just plain observation and everything, including Berkshire Hathaway and the U.S. dollar, will rise and fall according to circumstances. Accept it, Leisa, and put your befuddled mind to rest.

Big Gold Must Acquire or Acquiesce

Oil has been reported to be near depletion numerous times over the last seventy years. And gold, when enough profit can be made, will be found in many locations that are yet unexplored where junior miners have hardly begun to explore. The more they drill the more they are finding in the Canadian fault zones and the entire Arabian shield is yet to be tapped. Who knows where in South America or Africa a new bonanza find will appear? The lack of gold producing mines is based on economic limitations, not physical reserves. "Peak gold" threats are great to boost the price, though!

Why Silver’s Breakout Could Bring It Out of Gold’s Shadow

PastTense wrote: "...and most people I have read see the economy as more or less sputtering around where it is."

Well the CNBC people certainly say so, so it must be true? Read one of the Dr. Doom books out there, for instance, the newer "Crash Proof 2.0" by Peter Schiff, or "Financial Armageddon" by Michael Panzner. Yipes! They sure don't think it'll be sputtering at all.

The Truth Behind China's Currency Peg

User 499426 wrote:"The global economy should be transparent with a minimum wage and no trade barriers whatsoever so that politics, trade manipulation and exploitation are replaced by fair and humane business competition."

That is a fine Utopian view, however back on planet Earth we still have to deal with our primitive mindsets and competing economic theories. Capitalism, which more and more countries are embracing, is actually one step toward your Elysian life. Eventually things will even out over the centuries and an economic parity will exist between countries as exploited workers make more money off of exports and themselves obtain wealth, as is evident in China's booming economy. But until the vast majority of humanity does reach this level of equilibrium, we will continue to reflect the disparity of global wealth with wars, economic depressions, and nationalistic political policies.

But nothing lasts forever, and capitalism, like feudalism or any other economic theory, will be transformed into what works best for a nation within an international setting. Eventually, we will have what you are envisioning universally but probably not for another century or two. The key to it all is the technological advancements that will make goods and services so easily created and available that only a minimal labor force will be needed to sustain it and currency becomes unnecessary. Bingo -- your global equality has arrived.

Are Gold and Silver Set for a Parabolic Move Similar to the 1970s?

chris coonan wrote: "I would be interesting in knowing what the street price is to purchase small vs large silver and gold bars, and what kind of "fee" is involved in the average sale..."

Check out ebay sales, they are pretty close to what you can get at most coin stores.

Gold: Supply and Demand Continues to Evolve

sorgmot wrote: "buy gold derivatives..."

Ah, perhaps they won't get hit -- but they just might. Better to buy miners and physical PMs along with your derivatives as a hedge. No?

Winmill: Don't Be Surprised By $2,400/oz Gold

What is pushing the price of gold up on a steady climb without spikes is the realization of more and more investors, be it retail or fund managers, that the dollar is a goner and a good dose of inflation will be hitting us in a year or so. And as that dreadful situation approaches closer with each month of rising unemployment, loan defaults, dollar devaluation, and more stimulus, the price of gold will climb higher. We may see one big dip when they try to artificially boost the value of the dollar, but as more countries divest themselves of greenbacks in favor of hoarding "the precious stuff", the signs will be clearer that it's time to get back to basics and buy commodities and safe havens to protect one's wealth.

Until the U.S. Government can rid itself of favoring the financial and military establishments, we will continue on a slow spiral toward inflation and if not corrected, default on government notes. We need to start making radical changes to the way our representatives in D.C. do business before it is really too late. Reform the lobbying regulations, get business out of government, change the term limits, reduce spending and money printing, revise entitlements, and the list goes on and on. What can WE do, let your congressmen and senators know what YOU think. The U.S. is the most important country in the world, let's not blow it.

Today in Commodities: Expensive Game of Chicken

The author wrote: "Both gold and silver were sideways for the last 3 days. Is a correction looming or are the metals taking a breath for their next leg?"

Gold and silver don't DO anything. Investors do. Personifying the market is ridiculous. Tell us what the investors are doing.

The Government Bubble that's Driving Gold

FlyBy wrote: "1. That Bush granted Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status to China. 2. That Obama Administration policy direction is an oxy-acetylene torch to the delicate flower of the idea of America. 3. That, essentially, America is in many ways its own worst enemy. ...your 2nd para. is grossly minimizing of the international economic responsibilities and policies of the Chinese govt."

And any of the above points, or all of the above points, are the result of what, the Chinese voting in these people? No, WE voted them in and allow them to undermine the long term goals of prosperity for short term goals of being re-elected. As for those imports from China, WE limited our use of tariffs and quotas and WE enacted the NAFTA and TAFTA. Nobody was twisting Uncle Sam's arm when WE fell for the "what's best for capitalism is best for America" and let them pass those trade abominations. As for "When America looks in the mirror, it sees vigor, determination, confidence in a strong future.
But that is not the Marxist/Socialist Obama Plan", well, America is looking a little shabby around the edges right now with our failing economy. No doubt we will prevail, but not until we can do some major house cleaning, and that's in BOTH parties. (Marxist/Socialist? You've been watching too much political TV. Take the Republican shades off.)