Doing the Arithmetic of Unemployment [View article]
OR a couple of high-paid workers were fired and a low-paid temp was hired to replace them. And the invisible marginal workers, those who have given up looking for work, are not counted. Numbers can be awfully fun to play with. So much for encouraging news.
It's always sunny in Pasadena where the author lives. The unemployment rate is the fourth highest month in the last two years but we should look at the positive side because they've hired more temps and low-wage earners. Sorry, I don't buy it until my neighbors and friends start finding jobs.
Disagreeing With Dr. Doom About China [View article]
"...China's property bubble will be "cured" the same way we "solved" our crisis..."
Solved? Really? Apparently you miss the overall gist of Faber's, Roger's, and Rubini's concern that the very stimulus that "solved" the housing problem did nothing but prolong the agony into the next decade with a hyperinflation. Very credible sources (such as L. Goodman) warn that almost 25% of the private real estate mortgages have YET to default this year alone. We have a seven to nine year overhang of houses and the commercial real estate market is tottering. Hardly cured or solved. You were jesting, right?
How Gold ETFs Stack Up Against the Price of Gold Itself [View article]
And how well did all those really smart big shot investors do with all those subprime derivatives they bought up? Sometimes the pros get it all wrong, too. Time will tell how honest an investment GLD is. But physical gold deserves a honored place in ones portfolio just in case.
The Coming Collapse of Occult Economics and the USD Based System [View article]
The dollar, like housing, will continue to rise in value, and like housing, will peak when sentiment understands that it is in a value bubble and over-priced. And like the housing bubble, the dollar will likely collapse under its own weight. That's not restrictionist, that's common sense. By increasing the supply of anything until the supply is saturated, the value is diminished, and that's common sense, too. You're wrong.
The Euro Project is a great idea -- IF the component countries follow the regulations and are all on an equal status. However, when one country does not follow the regulations and overextends its obligations and debt, it endangers the whole. Much like the broken budgets of the states of California, Illinois, New York, etc. that are going to put a severe handicap on the U.S. federal budgetary obligations. The EU, Great Britain, and the U.S. are in similar boats only the EU is floundering first. By not allowing those countries/states to default on their debts, they create a larger problem by devaluing the currency with loans and stimulus, causing a deflationary/inflationary cycle. As Dr. Gloom and Doom Faber puts it, "it will bring about the collapse of the western world economies." Time to pay the piper.
Economic Recovery? Some Historical Perspective in 5 Charts [View article]
Looking at charts as a predictor of the future is sort of like looking backwards when you are driving. Because the curves in the road were always to the left doesn't mean the curve you are approaching won't be to the right! Using numbers and charts is certainly useful, but they do not take into account investor sentiment. The emotional direction that investors take can change on a dime and are largely unpredictable since the causes of the changes are equally unpredictable. Eruption in Iceland, worker strikes in Africa, terrorism in a major city, anything can turn the emotions and upset the finest detailed chart prognostications. Keep a wary eye out for the big picture, the unexpected, and how people are behaving. If chartists and quantitative analysts were right, they'd all be billionaires.
The U.S. Recovery Is Intact, But Risk of Deflation Remains [View article]
Conceding goods inflation? No, not really, I just don't trust the CPI or the horse that it rode into town on. The stock market is just a blazing example of how inflation is affecting another part of the economy and I'm glad to see that you agree. Although corporate stock prices in many instances surpass previous price levels at the same previous profit levels.
Gold is the best barometer of inflation that exists. Look at the value of unfixed gold throughout history and it still remains the preserver of wealth in any period of inflation or hyperinflation. Its current climb is partially due to momentum trading by speculators, but mostly due to the uncertainty of sovereign debt and the resulting currency inflation. It has reached new levels in the EU and climbs with news of sovereign debt worries. Gold ETFs are only one way of investing in gold and are a poor one at that considering their vulnerability to being paper gold-based . Gold trusts (specifically CEF or GTU) are much safer as are gold and silver miners. True that premiums for gold and silver bullion and storage costs are high, but as an insurance against severe inflation or hyperinflation the costs would seem insignificant to losing all of one's wealth by holding a worthless currency. Ask those in Zimbabwe (1999 to present), Argentina (1975-1991, with a 100 trillion to one peso inflation), Belarus (1994-2002, with a 100 million to one rublei inflation), Ecuador (2000, with a 75% drop in value), Greece (1944-1953, with a 50 trillion to one drachma inflation), Mexico (2004, with a 1,000 to one peso inflation), Poland (1990-1993, with a 10,000 to one zlotych inflation), and these are not even half of the countries within the last hundred years that have suffered from massive inflation and currency devaluation in modern times due to increased government spending of a fiat currency. Is the U.S. immune to the same outcomes? Or does it just show up later because of the privilege of being the most powerful country with the international currency?
TIPs are based on the CPI for interest evaluations which I believe are manipulated to hide the true inflation rate. REITS are extremely risky with almost 25% (12 million homes) of the current private real estate mortgages still to default this year. And this doesn't include a commercial real estate market that is likely to implode over the next few years as businesses bankrupt.
What I am skeptical about (and color me scared yellow) is the barrage of happy news and unfounded optimism that distracts the public from the critical issues that must yet be solved to turn our economy from the brink of a Greater Depression.
Best Performing Stocks Year to Date [View article]
Disagreeing With Dr. Doom About China [View article]
A 4-Year High for Jobs Growth [View article]
Unfortunately, there are no jobs for them. And that's not encouraging at all.
Doing the Arithmetic of Unemployment [View article]
Jobs Data Mostly Encouraging [View article]
Disagreeing With Dr. Doom About China [View article]
Solved? Really? Apparently you miss the overall gist of Faber's, Roger's, and Rubini's concern that the very stimulus that "solved" the housing problem did nothing but prolong the agony into the next decade with a hyperinflation. Very credible sources (such as L. Goodman) warn that almost 25% of the private real estate mortgages have YET to default this year alone. We have a seven to nine year overhang of houses and the commercial real estate market is tottering. Hardly cured or solved. You were jesting, right?
Gold Decouples on International Debt Crisis Concerns - Gold Forecast to Reach $3,000 [View article]
In such a volatile market, one should not assume that anything is ridiculous. Would you have thought the market was headed for 10,000 two months ago?
How Gold ETFs Stack Up Against the Price of Gold Itself [View article]
How Gold ETFs Stack Up Against the Price of Gold Itself [View article]
Since they had sold all of their worthless GLD ETFs they would be buying physical gold-in-hand and the price would REALLY take off.
The Coming Collapse of Occult Economics and the USD Based System [View article]
Gold Investment Demand: Can It Last? [View article]
4 Currency ETFs for Hedging a Reversing Dollar [View article]
Why the Greek Bailout Won't Work [View article]
Economic Recovery? Some Historical Perspective in 5 Charts [View article]
The U.S. Recovery Is Intact, But Risk of Deflation Remains [View article]
Gold is the best barometer of inflation that exists. Look at the value of unfixed gold throughout history and it still remains the preserver of wealth in any period of inflation or hyperinflation. Its current climb is partially due to momentum trading by speculators, but mostly due to the uncertainty of sovereign debt and the resulting currency inflation. It has reached new levels in the EU and climbs with news of sovereign debt worries. Gold ETFs are only one way of investing in gold and are a poor one at that considering their vulnerability to being paper gold-based . Gold trusts (specifically CEF or GTU) are much safer as are gold and silver miners. True that premiums for gold and silver bullion and storage costs are high, but as an insurance against severe inflation or hyperinflation the costs would seem insignificant to losing all of one's wealth by holding a worthless currency. Ask those in Zimbabwe (1999 to present), Argentina (1975-1991, with a 100 trillion to one peso inflation), Belarus (1994-2002, with a 100 million to one rublei inflation), Ecuador (2000, with a 75% drop in value), Greece (1944-1953, with a 50 trillion to one drachma inflation), Mexico (2004, with a 1,000 to one peso inflation), Poland (1990-1993, with a 10,000 to one zlotych inflation), and these are not even half of the countries within the last hundred years that have suffered from massive inflation and currency devaluation in modern times due to increased government spending of a fiat currency. Is the U.S. immune to the same outcomes? Or does it just show up later because of the privilege of being the most powerful country with the international currency?
TIPs are based on the CPI for interest evaluations which I believe are manipulated to hide the true inflation rate. REITS are extremely risky with almost 25% (12 million homes) of the current private real estate mortgages still to default this year. And this doesn't include a commercial real estate market that is likely to implode over the next few years as businesses bankrupt.
What I am skeptical about (and color me scared yellow) is the barrage of happy news and unfounded optimism that distracts the public from the critical issues that must yet be solved to turn our economy from the brink of a Greater Depression.