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The Recusant

The Recusant
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  • Update: U.S. Silver & Gold's Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for the article on USGIF, it was well done as usual. I'm full up on USGIF already and can't possibly buy more. They have substantial reserves and everything looks up from here on for them now that they've gotten their costs down. At these prices--they're a steal!
    Aug 13, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Production Costs And Steady Production Give U.S. Silver And Gold Shares At Least 25% Upside [View article]
    I agree completely that USSG has been underestimated! I've held a substantial portion of my small miner portfolio in USSG. Great report -- thanks for doing the work.
    Jul 29, 2014. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Bottomed In 2013 And Is Now Headed Higher [View article]
    trashdisposal: The employment numbers mean little when college educated kids can't get work except as clerks or in food service companies. The huge number of those who are not counted is what is important and underemployed is crucial to determining the economic recovery. Without real money flowing back into the system we have hype but no substance. The economy is still in incredibly bad shape and the inflated stock market can crash again at any time. Give me gold as the vaccination.
    Jul 18, 2014. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Jump On The Silver Bandwagon? Not So Fast [View article]
    Of all the author's statements, the truest one is: "While I believe that most investors should always have a small allocation to precious metals." But most investors don't. When they finally see the handwriting on the wall, the price will most certainly climb. The lightheaded feeling that investors feel these days with the market reaching new heights, is the lack of oxygen for their brains to work properly. A more reasonable perspective would see the folly in stock prices rising with no sound basis for cause.
    Jul 8, 2014. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Residential PV Solar More Trouble Than It's Worth? [View article]
    John Petersen: Isn't the "cleaning" of the PV power a regulatory issue? If PV owners could only dump into the grid from accumulated and stored power at regulated times and amounts, this would solve the problem, no?

    Solar and wind and the rest are an obvious partial solution to many pressing issues that face our global community. To stop using them because we haven't developed the right laws and technologies to control their use is like killing the sprout because of prickles before it bears the fruit. We just have to give it time to develop.
    Jun 26, 2014. 01:32 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Manipulation: What Investors Should Do Now [View article]
    James A. Kostohryz: The best way to carry off a conspiracy is to label those who've discovered it "conspiracy nuts."

    You stated: "Final point: The larger and more complex the conspiracy, and the more people that would need to be involved the less plausible it is. "
    It takes secrecy to have a successful conspiracy. And here you can think of the SR71 Blackbird, NSA wiretaps, the Manhattan Project, the TBTF aluminum ingot storage manipulation, or even Barney Madoff. The beauty of a secret project is the number of those in the know doesn't matter as long as it's compartmentalized effectively.
    Jun 7, 2014. 12:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Manipulation: What Investors Should Do Now [View article]
    Doug Eberhardt: Thanks for the link to your was WELL worth the read! I agree with much of what you wrote.
    Jun 7, 2014. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold [View article]
    Stephen Aniston: What happened in 2008 with gold's price will likely be repeated on the next big dip in the market. The money managers rush to cover themselves and sell everything, including gold. Then when the Fed steps up printing, everyone fears the expansion of the money supply will cause inflation or devaluation of the currency. Whether the expanding money supply would necessarily cause the fear (or the ensuing rise in gold prices) depends on the economic circumstances and stability of the market. But it is fear that popped the price. This same circumstance happens around the globe with fear of political instability, cultural upheavals, and any other social threat. Even something as wierd as Y2K? It popped the sale of jewelry and gold. Fear can be instigated by many factors and the expanding money supply is just one.
    Jun 6, 2014. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold [View article]
    Jeffrey Dow Jones: We all love charts and they can be useful in deciding the value of investments. However, there doesn't exist a specific enough measurement of the investors' sentiment of confidence. One that measures not just confidence in the market, but confidence in the overall state of the global and local economies, politics, cultural stability, environmental factors, etc. And lack of confidence is something that creates fear, the real mover of the price of gold.
    Jun 3, 2014. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold [View article]
    Sami J. Karam: Bravo! You noticed! The something else at play is sentiment. But in the case of gold, more precisely—fear. Inflation can be going gang-busters, but if the investors are happy, gold will do lousy. Crank up the fear factor about runaway inflation, hyperinflation, political upheaval, currency defaults, natural catastrophes, and you'll get your run to gold. And much of this fear is just around the corner when the market bubble bursts. Inflation doesn't cause gold to rise, but it may cause fear. And that DOES push the POG up.
    Jun 3, 2014. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett And Cowry Shells. Is The Price Of Gold Fixed? [View article]
    Ah...dear ol' Warren, who is quoted as saying that ancient China valued cowry shells, and today, gold has taken its place. However, gold has been money for thousands of years. Cowry shells were considered money for a few hundred at best. Tulip bulbs and BeanieBabies are similar faddish vehicles, but none have had the long lasting, world-wide support as a holder of wealth as gold has. Do we hear of "cowry shell" credit cards or "Good as tulip bulbs!"? It's value is embedded in the world's psyche as a symbol of wealth.

    Warren also was quoted saying that just because gold is rare, it doesn't make it valuable. Of course!—not everything that is rare is valuable. But some things are—like precious gems, fine art, old wines, and classic autos. Society defines value and it has held and still holds gold as valuable. And as do central banks.

    Meaningful investments, he said, focused on company statistics, book value, and cash flow. If so, then why did he, himself, invest so much in silver in 1997, a huge 130 million ounces of silver?! Does he consider silver so different from gold that his tirades against gold are not to be applied against silver? Personally, I wish I had invested in gold rather than United Airlines when the latter went bankrupt. So much for his "meaningful investments." Gold, at least, can never go to zero value.

    I wouldn't quote Warren in an article about gold to try to win points. He may be somewhat good at stocks and "meaningful investments" but he misses the boat on precious metals.
    May 15, 2014. 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices And Real Interest Rates, Part I [View article]
    The Social Scientist: A number of your statements can be argued. The following are just a few:

    "Either you buy the US dollar or you buy gold."
    >In many cases this is accurate, at least by central banks and large funds. Right now with the USD threatened by central banks abandoning the petrodollar and US treasury paper, the confidence in USDs is being replaced by confidence in gold.

    "Presumably, people prefer to purchase gold rather than the US dollar."
    >Therein lies the crux of the matter. More people, rightly or wrongly, believe in gold than in currencies. Would it be wise to fight a global historical trend?

    "Perhaps they're not rational [China]. After all, isn't a capitalistic economy directed by a Communist government an oxymoron?"
    >China departed the Communist tenets long ago when they embraced capitalism. Autocracies can and do employ capitalistic economies. Their quick rise to being the biggest manufacturing nation on the planet is not a symptom of irrationality. Irrational governments are those that are split by political biases and bring progress to a stand still.
    May 6, 2014. 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices And Real Interest Rates, Part I [View article]
    Yair Guterman: As you commented, gold is related to interest rates, but need it be dependent on them? Correlation is not causation and many other things influence the price of gold. To assume gold relies on only one fundamental is to assume all investors and buyers of gold think alike. And as you further pointed out, the rest of the world does not consider the USD the end all.
    May 6, 2014. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices And Real Interest Rates, Part I [View article]
    The Social Scientist: As you point out, the Chinese have been buying up gold and the price went down. Hmm, what's wrong with that picture? Seems like the law of supply and demand is not working then. Of course, it could be that the supply of paper bullion (all the double entry business at the bullion banks) artificially kept gold from rising to its proper value. But then that would mean that a conspiracy was afoot! Since that can't be, according to your article, then supply and demand must be bogus.
    May 6, 2014. 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Goldcorp's Next Move On The Acquisition Front? [View article]
    My bet would be Rubicon Minerals. They're close by, have done their DD with plenty of reserves, and are on the verge of big production. The current price for RBY is very undervalued.
    Apr 23, 2014. 10:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment