@MWinMD: what a great way to demonstrate for us the "science" of global warming: use the data you like (figure 2), and ignore the data you don't like (figure 1).
David, thank you for presenting your interesting analysis and fresh perspective. I am not planning on taking either side of the Apple trade, though I do think that the company is more likely to go back to being a high quality yet niche player than keep rolling high.
Perhaps Apple's historical ROIC looks high because the formula does not account for "goodwill capital" contributed by Steve Jobs (and maybe some other people in his organization). Now that Jobs is gone and a normal CEO is at the helm the "goodwill capital" is greatly reduced, and ROIC is indeed unsustainable.
It amazes me how so many comments contribute nothing but raw hubris. But then I look around, and it kind of makes sense. Mediocrity and group think is the new normal.
"But if I really believed that banks were selling gold, I wouldn't be trying to buy it!" - Why not? The central banks are known to be terrible at timing their sales, and bank analysts are not particularly accurate with their gold price forecasts.
Atlantic Power: A Tale Of Misinformation [View article]
This is my last post on this subject - we can agree to disagree.
The board had not made any decision by the time of the previous conference call, and the CEO probably was not sure how everything (and AT has a lot of moving parts!) would play out. The stock was going to drop on the dividend cut news irrespectively of when it was announced. If you are a long-term owner, as you imply, then getting a price haircut a few months earlier or later makes very little difference.
How was the game rigged? Were the insiders selling while telling us to buy? No, I don't see filings to back such an assertion.
The real lessons are (a) high yielders are addictive but risky (see posts from 5+) and (b) shift happens - diversify. It is only human to want to lash out at some one, but doing so is not rational.
Atlantic Power: A Tale Of Misinformation [View article]
Das, would you care to clarify exactly how the management was "making poor recent decisions"?
In addition to what 5+ is saying let me also point out that (a) investment is hard (b) investment in small companies is especially hard (c) neither Roger Conrad nor anyone else is going to deliver nirvana for you.
Question: How many people of those who scream "let's sue" read 10Q or call the company IR to find the numbers that seem to be missing? Answer: Close to zero, because those who do also take personal responsibility for their investment decisions.
They can take advantage of low rates and lever up their balance sheet by issuing debt and buying back their *own* shares. Buying customers is not the same as winning them (take a look at XRX).
Worst Economic Policy Decision Of The Year, Argentina Edition [View article]
You are forgetting about fringe benefits, which were added during the same period of time to work around wage controls, a part of the "very successful program of price controls".
"If properly executed...". Ah yes, those ideas are always flawless. It is only the execution to blame. If only people were perfect machines, which could be programmed to work toward common good...
Europe: Can't Fix Credit? Muzzle The Ratings Agencies [View article]
This is a good development, as it further demonstrates that the NRSRO approach is broken. If this bright idea goes through then I would expect more places to conduct their internal research, and hopefully new *unaffiliated* voices will emerge. A change that leads to more opinions and makes it harder to hide behind the "official" ratings is a good change in my book. Only those who are given special privileges (NRSRO) can be silenced.
Almost No One Makes Money From The Stock Market Alone [View article]
Perfect answer. And that is why I mostly buy individual stocks instead of equity indices - to tailor them to my risk tolerance and to avoid bailing out at the worst time. Every time I look under the hood of a mutual fund or an index I see too much stuff I do not want to own or not sure about.
Realty Income's Latest Acquisition A Departure From The Norm [View article]
Thank you for this article. Finally, there is an adult conversation that goes beyond the dividend to consider such pesky items like value creation and cap rates vs. cost of capital.
Finding The Oil Bargains: A New Valuation Method [View article]
Fair enough. You did say that. Then shouldn't the *hard numbers* drive the discussion of why a company like Crescent Point looks expensive (and whether it really is or just looks that way) rather then fairly subjective and secondary considerations of "respected management teams" and "relatively high profiles among non-Canadian investors"?
Finding The Oil Bargains: A New Valuation Method [View article]
The snapshot of current production tells you nothing about the quantity and quality of reserves. You have to discount future cash flows to get the full picture. Other considerations, like amount of debt, will also affect market multiples.
The Truth Behind Apple's Numbers [View article]
The Truth Behind Apple's Numbers [View article]
Perhaps Apple's historical ROIC looks high because the formula does not account for "goodwill capital" contributed by Steve Jobs (and maybe some other people in his organization). Now that Jobs is gone and a normal CEO is at the helm the "goodwill capital" is greatly reduced, and ROIC is indeed unsustainable.
It amazes me how so many comments contribute nothing but raw hubris. But then I look around, and it kind of makes sense. Mediocrity and group think is the new normal.
Some Useful Charts And Thoughts About Personal Investing [View article]
Gold And Dilemmas [View article]
Some Useful Charts And Thoughts About Personal Investing [View article]
Atlantic Power: A Tale Of Misinformation [View article]
The board had not made any decision by the time of the previous conference call, and the CEO probably was not sure how everything (and AT has a lot of moving parts!) would play out. The stock was going to drop on the dividend cut news irrespectively of when it was announced. If you are a long-term owner, as you imply, then getting a price haircut a few months earlier or later makes very little difference.
How was the game rigged? Were the insiders selling while telling us to buy? No, I don't see filings to back such an assertion.
The real lessons are (a) high yielders are addictive but risky (see posts from 5+) and (b) shift happens - diversify. It is only human to want to lash out at some one, but doing so is not rational.
Atlantic Power: A Tale Of Misinformation [View article]
In addition to what 5+ is saying let me also point out that (a) investment is hard (b) investment in small companies is especially hard (c) neither Roger Conrad nor anyone else is going to deliver nirvana for you.
Question: How many people of those who scream "let's sue" read 10Q or call the company IR to find the numbers that seem to be missing?
Answer: Close to zero, because those who do also take personal responsibility for their investment decisions.
CBIZ: Stable Recurring 15+% Free-Cash-Flow Yield [View article]
Worst Economic Policy Decision Of The Year, Argentina Edition [View article]
"If properly executed...". Ah yes, those ideas are always flawless. It is only the execution to blame. If only people were perfect machines, which could be programmed to work toward common good...
Europe: Can't Fix Credit? Muzzle The Ratings Agencies [View article]
Almost No One Makes Money From The Stock Market Alone [View article]
Realty Income's Latest Acquisition A Departure From The Norm [View article]
Finding The Oil Bargains: A New Valuation Method [View article]
Then shouldn't the *hard numbers* drive the discussion of why a company like Crescent Point looks expensive (and whether it really is or just looks that way) rather then fairly subjective and secondary considerations of "respected management teams" and "relatively high profiles among non-Canadian investors"?
Finding The Oil Bargains: A New Valuation Method [View article]
Would Jay-Z Buy These REITs? [View article]