Pcatlow

10 Reasons the Equity Rally Is Over

Even more importantly, the USA is repeating the follies of the Japanese since 1991: stimulation. Throwing money at this situation will not solve the fundamental issues of our economy and the Investment community will catch on to this "better bad numbers" syndrome that we are in right now.

Why You Don't Need an Informational Advantage, Just an Emotional One

Tony, maybe running a Berkshire option strategy would be better (selling puts and buying calls).....bet on a further decline where a net-net positive entry with more upside would be of benefit.

The Gartman comments are funny, LOL funny, to me. He called out the supposed smartest investor on the planet. For those of you who place a lot of value on a guy who HAS accumulated a ton of cash, I would only say that as the Man From Omaha ages, his bets are not paying off quite as well as they did when he had a far fresher brain.

Short Traders Closing Positions on Ford

Fleet buying??? Why would you think that these sales are leading us to profits. Fleet sales are typically of the lowest possible margins on huge volume. This may put the factory to work, but the margin degradation has been, and will be, the primary driver of poor balance sheets. Please, folks, beware of these types of posts as they need to be rooted in the realities of the Domestic Automobile market. You will never see the Toyota's of the world pursuing these low margin deals.

Washington Drinking the Kool-Aid of Incompetent Economists

YES! The manipulation of stats continues. ANYONE can cook up numbers and a HS Stat class will tell us all that such information is faulty, can be bent to tell any "truth" they care to convey and in the end we all suffer from a lack of spirited debate.

It just kills me that no one questions these numbers more and that someone has to be a respected authority on such numbers. WHO IS THAT????


On Jun 07 10:43 AM Jplout wrote:

> Great article, but the Kool-Aid drinking has been going on for some
> time by all of us. Example: 9% unemployment? Who R we kidding?
> True unemployment is more like 15% and 20% is some areas. The bogus
> unemployment numbers they serve us with the Kool-Aid is just one
> example how we'v grown complacent to the Masters' orders. Unless
> we come up with 4 to 5 million jobs soon the definition of middle
> class in the US will be changed for good. It would be difficult to
> recover without creating jobs. We all know now that most of the
> stimulus package $$$ when to bail out local governments with unsustainable
> largesse budgets. Are Florida & California broke? yea.
> Stock market at unsustainable levels on low trading volume just helps
> the Government broadcast the illusion that recovery is in the horizon.
>
> I don't think anyone is going to declare on October the 7th a worldwide
> depression, but the sooner we hit bottom the sooner the recovery.

Roubini the Revisionist

An entire copy of article:


Nouriel Roubini, the famously glum economist who predicted the financial crisis, said that while the recession in the United States may well be over at the end of the year, another dip was still possible next year.

"I still expect that economic growth in the U.S. is going to be negative through Q4, and that we'll see positive growth in Q1," Roubini told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Seoul Digital Forum.

"The U.S. recession is going to be U-shaped, lasting roughly 24 months," he added. "Compared to the current consensus that says we are practically at the end of the recession ... my view is: no, it's going to last another six to nine months before it's over."

Roubini, who teaches at New York University and heads research firm RGE Monitor, had said on Wednesday that the end of the global recession was likely to occur at the end of the year. This spurred speculation that his outlook had grown more optimistic, a suggestion denied by him in the interview.

"Because I said the recession is going to be over by year-end, people say I am an optimist, but I've been saying the same thing for a while."

"I would say compared to current consensus, I am much more bearish," he said. "Compared to other people that say it's going to be a doomsday, I could be considered an optimist."

Roubini stood by a recent article in which he mentioned the possibility of a "perfect storm" in 2010.

"There is even a risk of a double dip, a W-shaped recession at the end of next year," he said, a combination of rising oil prices, rising public debt and increases in real interest rates, rising concerns about inflation and the expiration of a number of tax cuts in the United States.

Is Gartman Right About Shorting the Dow and Gold?

Gold leads to a trail of tears. Trying to call direction on this commodity is futile.

Are We at the Beginning of a Bull Market?

The big message missed here is WHEN will the Banks be held to a true test of their ability to operate without further capital? All of our major Banks, hold Goldman, are unstable and continue to face pressures from mounting unemployment and so on.

In fact this article fails to mention unemployment altogether.

Gold and Economic Freedom: Reinterpreted for the 21st Century

Jasper, your comments in reality support my assertions. By Common Man, I am referring to those poor schmucks who got taken, are being taken, or are about to be taken in my the rhetoric.

Naturally, you might ask: then who is that common man. He is not here reading these posts and the above article.

So, I stand by my assertions that the Common Man is going to be on welfare if he thinks he can participate. I, and by your comments, might I say, "we" are on the cutting edge simply because we have the time, money, motivation and education to participate in options plays. I spend my first two hours (from the eastern open) of my day trading futures and am making a fortune doing so.

The Common Man, which comprises most of my family and friends, have "eye rolling" responses when I talk about Vervoort Crosses, and Triple Exponential Moving Averages....it's just beyond their scopes of imaginations to understand that technical analysis has a place in how one chooses to invest.

With that said, I am still on board as a hapless participant trying to pry sense out of the aberrations I see daily. I am on board for the ride.

Thus, I would argue, that you too are on board for the ride as you have no control, only how you can respond to the Oligarchic manipulations...you in effect define yourself as the not-so-Common Man with what you wrote in reply to my short point that [truly] Common Man is in a helpless state and is still hanging his or her hopes on a "pending recovery" as defined [albeit, "sold'] by the very Oligarchs who control the message.

Thank humanity for hedges.


On May 10 09:22 AM Jasper M wrote:

> Pcatlow,
> I hate to haunt this article with contradictions, but I must rise
> in support of the capacity of the common man to amass wealth. I
> have. And I gather I am pretty common. I have ZERO connections to
> anyone in any hall of power.
> What I do have is an education (cheaper all the time), and a capacity
> for critical analysis. Plenty of folks with both - they're just Choosing
> not to use them lately.
>
> In fact, I would argue that oligarchic meddling in markets is so
> reliably failure prone that it may actually increase opportunities
> for notable profits. Reference recent article right here on SA, about
> bank stocks trading like penny stocks. Speaking from my own experience,
> I headed warnings by wise men re financials, and bought puts. I
> made 10/1 on Goldman & BoA, and 20/1 on Citi and GE. Doubt that
> swing would have happened without the unprecedented meddling (credit
> inflation) that preceded it.
>
> I am Not saying that the meddling is good. It is So not. But that
> doesn't mean you can't amass wealth betting against it. You can.
>

Gold and Economic Freedom: Reinterpreted for the 21st Century

Even IF we converted to a Gold Standard, it would be derived, manipulated, and we citizens would be prevented from buying Gold in stores for future value. There would be a run on Gold bullion.

The reason: We are living with an Oligarchy...until that changes, no matter what we do, there is no hope for the common man in amassing great wealth. Sorry to say it out loudly folks, but this is the reality.

Book Review: Great Depression Ahead

There are so many issues currently about to burst, that it is difficult to count them all on two hands:

1. There is still over $50Trillion with a "T" of toxic CDS paper over-hanging the Financial Institutions that barely gets mentioned anywhere.
2. The Government is printing money like made. Hyper-inflation to follow.
3. The Banks are Bankrupt. The majors. The Fed and Treasury and FDIC are powder-coating the real numbers. The stress test was stressful for these liars, but they are getting over that as I type this.
4. Real Estate is not bottoming.
5. The Stock market is over-valued.
6. You might say that Baby Boomers were busted with the old adage, "The stock market beats everything in the long run." Well, YOU CAN TIME THE MARKET and those boomers bought into the buy and hold strategy pushed by Schwab and the rest.
7. There are 20 more right off the top of my hat....but, Boomers will be working until they are 80 to barely make ends meet due to number 2 above. They are in trouble. I am one of them, but got out of the Stock market in early 2007. My most brilliant move ever. Sold covered calls on GOOG and the rest, banked that cash and the rest of my holdings are in MMF and Bonds, with a few pieces of dead real estate.

Real Estate: Now Is the Time to Buy Right and Buy Smart

Picking a bottom will make your fingers stink. What a stinker of an article. Real Estate is not an investment unless you own multi-unit Apartments...then, those smart money folks know when to roll over.

Getting to the Bottom of Residential Construction Data

Just look at empty inventory...it is all a matter of supply and demand and demand is driven by credit...which is now harder than ever to secure (20% down, good credit and verified income).

I do not buy a recovery until (and if) the above are resolved. In the meantime, we sit and watch values drop significantly...

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

The piece is an interesting and compelling read. I lean more towards the author's view than against.....but, the time-line will be stretched out further.

The fact that I, as a Futures trader, am completely out of this market is my lead card in this play. Now, beyond that, my wife and I (childless, retired in a mountain top community, zero debt, and cash heavy) are in the final stages of a major move away from the USA:

1. We will sell our house for whatever it will fetch.
2. We are moving to Latin America.
3. I will trade into foreign currencies as quickly as I can and at the most ripe moment.
4. We will break all ties to the US tax system, since Tax rates on the "rich" (traders, income producers, and titans of industry - - those who make more than a dollar a day (HA!), will see their tax rates beat what we already see in the EU.
5. We will find our health care somewhere else as this will never be solved and the AMA has a complete strong-hold over the industry. Even the last word of my last sentence tells us something (profits from health is counter productive and leads to what we have now: huge insurance premiums, deductibles and we are scared doo-doo-less that a single health crisis will wipe us out---we are in our 50's and the BIG C could kills us in more than one way).
6. We will continue to believe not one word of the Wall Street spew we read every day.....and not one word of the 10Q's and Quarterly reports which contain lies, and misleading data...

I could go on and on, but folks the good OLE USA is doomed.

U.S. Economy: 'Less Bad' Doesn't Mean 'Getting Better'

Interesting read. Now, the question is this:

1. Does the market CAPTURE forward data and reflect that reality in current market levels (S&P, Averages, etc/) ---or---

2. Is this market reflecting current data and adjusting itself accordingly.

What I am getting at is this: IF it is true that the market prices the future, then they already know, and have priced the equities side of our market based on post 4th quarter "forecasts." BUT, what does the market believe it sees in 2010, 2011 and beyond.

In effect, my take is that we truly have made a paradigm shift and the small retail investor is so spooked now that they will never trust the markets again in their lives, are hiding in cash and fixed investments and the large commercial traders have no one but themselves to feed upon.

The market is doomed from that perspective. I am a baby boomer in my mid-50's and will sit aside, trade futures and move my money into cash instruments as a way to hedge against a falling dollar. I will not re-enter the market until (if) the regulators punish those who lie...and that ain't happening, folks.

The Realities of 2% Inflation

The only thing the article misses is WHY do consumables exclude the MOST consumed items!!?????????????? Let's just take one consumable (YES WE CONSUME A TON OF IT): energy components - - diesel, gasolene, etc. Well, those components are items that we consume that affect everything we do in this culture. You will be hard-pressed to find anything that is not affected by this single component. And, those who have government pensions -- well their inflation adjustments simply cannot keep up with the TRUE inflation of these consumables. The government bullshits us and the market laughably enjoys the ride.