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Darrellt

Darrellt
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  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Shift [View article]
    I like the advertising step up, but this seems to be a very ineffective ad. Something a little more hard hitting would get a bigger return for the ad dollar, I think. Well, to put it more simply: I think the ad really stinks--slow to put out the message and boring.

    Darrell
    Sep 12 01:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting A Price On A Rising Solar Newcomer [View article]
    Interesting article, thanks AA.

    I do like the market position for Enphase. Market leaders tend to remain on top so long as they maintain a competitive product. Enphase's line is clearly superior to all competitors and their R&D shows competence in continuing to lead. Their end user software is by far the best.

    I don't think I would agree with your expectation of some sort of a short squeeze maybe coming. Much of these short positions can be explained as hedging strategies by savvy investors. Naked shorts are probably only a fraction of the total. However, the primary reasons for wanting to be short are Chinese competition and the possibility of integration of micro-inverters into the solar panels. I tend to worry about both, but I believe Enphase's lead in both marketing and software will be very tough for competitors to overcome. My crystal ball says the company has a two year window to crush competition and the technology improvements and cost reductions they have already made give me great confidence in the management team.

    Given the company momentum and the huge increases expected in solar installations worldwide ENPH looks to me to be a solid investment and a potential market leader even beyond residential installations.
    May 20 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enphase Energy: Well Positioned For Long-Term Growth [View article]
    Nice article and comments. Thank you.
    May 5 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upcoming Data For Athersys Crucial, But Not In Terms Of Immediate Share Price [View article]
    Err, I think your chart is a bit out of date. It states that the IBD Phase II trial is enrolling, but it has been fully enrolled for some time now, and the first results are what is expected at the end of the month.
    Apr 7 01:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sees Growth Continue With Belviq [View article]
    Well Spencer,
    I appreciate your attempt to arrive at accurate scripts (bottles), even it the stat types want you to forget adjustments or modify your charts. After all, if we are to forecast cash flow and try to get a handle on financials going forward for the company the thing that matters is getting those scripts numbers accurate.

    I do appreciate the statisticians wanting to see unaltered trend lines, but the accurate numbers you are striving for tell a strong story as well.
    Mar 10 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Future Sales Of Arena Pharmaceuticals' Belviq: Let's Make Some Informed, Quantitative Predictions Using Expected Value [View article]
    Errr, I am not an expert, but in reading this link to the SEC it does not appear to have much impact. The program seems to be disappearing because it is not being used ($1.85 billion in 2007 to 81 million in 2013). I doubt that such a small program elimination will affect any stocks at all.
    Mar 3 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Developments Do Not Justify Athersys' Doubling Since December [View article]
    I really dislike articles like this that are full of errors trying to make a point with silly negative personal opinions based on false factual analysis of the stock. This is data that has been available and analyzed by many knowledgeable investors and anyone doing due diligence would never write such junk. I believe that such articles are probably deliberate attempts to manipulate the stock price and should be called out as bad articles when they appear, apparently in an attempt to mislead those less knowledgeable and drive the price down.

    The author embarrassed himself and SA.
    Feb 25 07:31 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athersys-Pfizer Investors: Anticipating A Phase III Trial For Inflammatory Bowel Disease [View article]
    Very nice article--very informative. Thank you.
    Jan 22 02:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies Ahead For Arena Pharmaceuticals? [View article]
    ARNA cash is very substantial considering their quarterly burn rate is less than $20M, their cash and other assets total more than $259M (that is three years of operating capital) and their incoming cash is increasing as Belviq marketing programs kick in. Eisai is starting direct to consumer advertising this month and has hired an additional 200 sales reps for this campaign. I don't know where the author got his opinions on ARNA's cash position, but it certainly wasn't from the facts. Management has given no indication of needing to raise additional cash.

    The article also fails to mention the 31%+ (increasing to just over 36%) royalties that ARNA receives based on net sales by Eisai. This will total an additional $1 billion in revenue over the next several years. The likelihood that ARNA will need an additional equity offering is very small. The future of sales for Belviq is still before it, but all indications are for a very positive future for ARNA.
    Jan 2 02:45 PM | 37 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enphase: Part II Of Anemic Revenue Growth With Alarming Warranty Obligation Growth [View article]
    Errrr, when my microinverter failed I first noticed it when I received an email from the company saying they were going to replace it--and this was the day after it failed! I then called up my online monitor and saw not only which one had failed, but the action also retrained me to review that material regularly which I do. That software monitoring feature is a strong major component of user satisfaction and a great assist to installers.

    For those of you who don't know much about this software it collects data via the AC and transmits it via a gateway at the installation location's internet connection to Enphase. Enphase then lets the customer access his own installation's data via his internet browser using a password system for security. I can review my output for each panel in real time, and see hourly, daily and monthly performance figures in raw numbers and via a series of other comprehensive graphs and reports. A really well done system for monitoring both performance and reliability.
    Dec 21 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enphase: Part II Of Anemic Revenue Growth With Alarming Warranty Obligation Growth [View article]
    I have had 36 panels with Enphase microinverters for three years and have only had one replaced and that was in the second month. My installer said that was a rare occurrence and he really likes Enphase as a supplier. I bought the stock because I know firsthand what a good product it is.

    I dunno' what motivates this guy to pick out a few pieces of data and try to make something larger than it is. Certainly seems to be a flawed article.
    Dec 19 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Prescription Data - Week 23 [View article]
    Thanks Spencer! Your comments are right on.
    Nov 25 01:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Arena Be Able To Write A Growth Story? [View article]
    I am looking forward to Eisai's next moves. They have paid tens of millions for this product and they certainly won't balk at spending some millions on advertising going forward. It looks like they are taking a careful planned approach to this product: first the weight loss doctors and then as many other doctors as they can reach with their quality sales staff, then generic ads to explain the product (the current phase) and, finally, I expect a serious campaign of a DTC series of television and mainstream media ads. It is this final phase that I think will finally result in serious sales and move the stock price significantly. Eisai is a strong company with a good cash position and they are not going to let up their campaign because sales are a little slow out the gate. They will put whatever is needed to get it moving and onto best seller lists.

    Coming soon: major consumer ads and robust sales increases.
    Sep 30 04:34 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athersys, Inc.: Clinical Trial For Inflammatory Bowel Disease [View article]
    Nice article. At current prices this is like a cheap never expiring option. We'll see how it goes, but I like the look.
    Jul 23 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Does Not Fare Well With Consumer Reports [View article]
    Hang in there Spencer, you are the best writer on ARNA and are on top of the news that you share with all of us. Best of all you put it in a perspective that you support with facts. I don't always agree with everything you say, but you often get me thinking about alternative issues.
    Jun 14 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
73 Comments
209 Likes