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  • BP shares higher on Exxon's rumored takeover interest [View news story]
    BP...Is a screaming buy. With the cash flow it throws off, and the negative impact and perception of the gulf Oil spill. You can't even go down and buy your local landscape or convient store for the ratio BP is selling at. Take a look at Seth Klarman's position in BP. I already own some.
    Sep 21 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    Hey Cliff,

    Great point at $17 a share...Not as powerful an argument at $11 after a 40% haircut. (Nobody knows, including myself). You're argument also assumes everything has changed now, with interest rates. Jeffery Gunlach took the opposite side of your view...You may want to see he's take a few weeks back on this. Thank you for the comments.

    Mark
    Sep 13 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP Oil & Gas: The Oil Patch's Next Blockbuster Takeover Candidate [View article]
    Alan,

    Glass half empty or half full?

    Stock went up almost 25% since your last comment.....Check
    Last Quarter is gone...............Check
    Production with Titan is on schedule...........Check
    Dept not due until 2015.....................

    And maybe you can make your pixie dust comment again and Puff we will be up another 25%.....

    Regards,

    Mark
    Apr 20 06:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telemark commences production [View instapost]
    WTIC at $82.41....Very strong oil prices as well. Price just needs to eat up those bears around $19.50-$20 per share. Once we got thru that, the door is open for much higher prices.

    Mark
    Mar 30 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update to 2010 ATP Production Outlook [View instapost]
    How much that equates to earnings.....per quarter going forward.
    Mar 25 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look at ATP Oil and Gas Corp.'s Q4 [View article]

    If your saying they are not relavent...Then i would point to both XOM/XTO and ADDAX Sinopec they sure did pay billions and billions for pixie dust..........

    Mark
    Mar 22 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look at ATP Oil and Gas Corp.'s Q4 [View article]
    Hey Devon,

    I think the best way to value a company is to see what the market is willing to pay for similiar E & P companies. All companies are different, but one must determine a general idea of value. A simple way is to look at what the market is offering today. One way for me is just to look at Proven and probable and divid by price offered. this does not account for any cash flow, just reserves.

    -Althought ATPG is not XTO. XOM was willing to pay roughly $15.00 BOE
    -ADDAX bought out buy China's Sinopec. Roughly $10.00
    -Petrohawk is obvously a NG player, but do the converstion of the last couple of buyouts/Sales of reserves. they yield $5.83 & $2.12 of MCFE...from $35-12.75 BOE.

    Under this model, ATPG with roughly 200M BOE prices them between a $2-3 billion net worth company. $40-50 a share with my model.....Just something to chew on......

    Mark
    Mar 21 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Luck of the Irish [View article]
    Your fighting the tape & the FED. Not sure I agree with many of your comments......
    Mar 17 07:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP Oil and Gas: Undervalued Stock with Major Price-Altering Catalysts Imminent [View article]
    Love to see them sell. Last major sale was for $10 per proved & proable. Makes ATPG a 2.1 billion dollar mkt cap. Call the Chinese and sell it. Plus the Senior management are not kids anymore. Just my humble opionion.

    Mark
    Feb 11 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP Oil and Gas: Undervalued Stock with Major Price-Altering Catalysts Imminent [View article]
    Devon,

    Another nice article....Do you have the acutal proven and probable in BOE? Is it 220MM BOE?

    Thank you,

    Mark
    Feb 10 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
    Hey Devon,

    China again sought to satisfy its hunger for natural resources, as state-owned Sinopec Group agreed to acquire oil-exploration company Addax Petroleum Corp. for 8.27 billion Canadian dollars (US$7.19 billion), in what would mark the largest overseas takeover by a Chinese company.

    Addax information: The best cacalulations I could figure was that Addax would recieve a little less then $10 for proven, probable and possible reserves per barrell.....rouglhy 738.1(MMbbl) X $10 gives you close to the US$7.2 billion paid. Also both companies with similiar dept issues. This would value ATPG 200-220 (MMbbl) X $10=US$2-2.2 billion ($40-$45 a share). Obviously there are some very real differences between Addax & ATPG. But It tells you where the market is at.....


    Link to information:
    www.addaxpetroleum.com...


    • Founded in 1994 with shares listed on the TSX (since February 2006) and the Main Market
    of the LSE (since May 2007) under the trading symbol “AXC”
    • With average production of 136.5 Mbbl/d for 2008, Addax Petroleum is one of the largest
    independent oil producers in West Africa and the Middle East
    • Total reserves and resources of approximately 1.9 billion boe as at December 31, 2008
    comprised of:
    - 536.7 MMbbl of 2P reserves
    - 825.1 MMbbl of risked prospective oil resources (2,772 MMbbl unrisked)
    - 2.8 Tcf of contingent gas resources plus 83.5 MMbbl of associated gas liquids
    • 2P reserve life index of 10.8 years
    • Significant participating interests in four blocks of the highly prospective JDZ & a 72.5%
    interest in deepwater offshore Nigeria block OPL291, immediately adjacent to Chevron’s
    OML127 (Agbami)
    • 45% interest in the Taq Taq license area and 26.67% interest in the Sangaw North license
    area in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
    • Total exploration, development and production acreage of 4.4 million acres net to
    Addax Petroleum
    Addax Petroleum Corporation (AXC) is an international oil and gas E&P company focused on
    Africa and the Middle East
    MARKET CAPITALIZATION
    CDN$4.3 BILLION (£2.4 BILLION)
    * as at March 31, 2009
    TOTAL SHARES OUTSTANDING
    157 MILLION
    (1) As at December 31, 2008, as set out in Addax Petroleum’s Annual Information Form dated March 4th, 2009. Totals may not add due to rounding.
    Properties
    Key Facts
    2008 SALES
    US$4.6 BILLION
    2008 FUNDS FLOW FROM OPERATIONS
    US$1.9 BILLION
    Snapshot
    2008 CAPITAL INVESTMENT
    US$1.8 BILLION
    LONG-TERM DEBT (DEC 31, 2008)
    US$1.2 BILLION
    Country
    Dec 8 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
    Hey Devon,

    Hope your doing well. I had a great trade. Second best of the year with ATPG. Watching for now with a potential rally in the dollar could add more pressure to oil. I have a couple of questions about ATPG and it's value.
    1-Do they have any of there production hedged? Reason for asking, is that if the dollar rally hard, Oil could have a nice pullback into first quarter.

    2-Does anyone have a good feel how the reserves are priced. I'm looking for other Oil companies that have been sold recently and it's closer to $10 a barrell of oil. Making ATPG closer to a $40 target vs. your $80. Either way a premium from here.

    3-Also How much of an increase in proven reserves could be coming? They mentioned a increase, a few months back. But nothing since then.

    Thanks again for you informative posts....

    Mark
    Dec 6 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
    Hey Devon,

    Do you have any feel for EPS or estimates? I'm uncertain with the contractors sharing revenues from Telemark. Also I'm not sure of cost basis. I guess difficult to predict...Do you have any projections of EPS next year?

    Thanks,

    Mark


    On Nov 02 12:45 PM Devon Shire wrote:

    > I think what you are actually referring to is that production levels
    > will double in 2010. Revenue levels is going to be much more than
    > a double in 2010 over 2009 levels. There is first the benefit of
    > the much higher production (see my article or the company's last
    > presentation), then the fact that they are going be even more heavily
    > weighted to oil (Telemark is 76% oil) and finally they are going
    > to be selling oil at higher prices than 2009.
    >
    > They will likely not hit a billion in revenue in 2010, but by June/July
    > their annual run rate will be over a billion if production ramps
    > up as expected. Telemark comes on in stages during the first half
    > of the year.
    Nov 2 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
    Hey Devon,

    Always enjoy your posts. Not sure if you have read the last presentation by ATPG, but the CFO states that a double in revenues is possible (ref: Bloomberg interview). Now I'm not sure if he is reffering to this years revenues and it will double next year. I think he stated that 1 billion in revenues is not out of the questions...Maybe run the numbers on EPS at a billion and it may give you a better picture. But I'm not sure how much of that will got tot he contractors for their services.

    Enjoy the posts,

    Mark
    Oct 31 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
    Hey
    Oct 31 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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