ATP Oil & Gas: The Oil Patch's Next Blockbuster Takeover Candidate [View article]
Alan,
Glass half empty or half full?
Stock went up almost 25% since your last comment.....Check Last Quarter is gone...............Check Production with Titan is on schedule...........Check Dept not due until 2015.....................
And maybe you can make your pixie dust comment again and Puff we will be up another 25%.....
WTIC at $82.41....Very strong oil prices as well. Price just needs to eat up those bears around $19.50-$20 per share. Once we got thru that, the door is open for much higher prices.
A Closer Look at ATP Oil and Gas Corp.'s Q4 [View article]
If your saying they are not relavent...Then i would point to both XOM/XTO and ADDAX Sinopec they sure did pay billions and billions for pixie dust..........
A Closer Look at ATP Oil and Gas Corp.'s Q4 [View article]
Hey Devon,
I think the best way to value a company is to see what the market is willing to pay for similiar E & P companies. All companies are different, but one must determine a general idea of value. A simple way is to look at what the market is offering today. One way for me is just to look at Proven and probable and divid by price offered. this does not account for any cash flow, just reserves.
-Althought ATPG is not XTO. XOM was willing to pay roughly $15.00 BOE -ADDAX bought out buy China's Sinopec. Roughly $10.00 -Petrohawk is obvously a NG player, but do the converstion of the last couple of buyouts/Sales of reserves. they yield $5.83 & $2.12 of MCFE...from $35-12.75 BOE.
Under this model, ATPG with roughly 200M BOE prices them between a $2-3 billion net worth company. $40-50 a share with my model.....Just something to chew on......
ATP Oil and Gas: Undervalued Stock with Major Price-Altering Catalysts Imminent [View article]
Love to see them sell. Last major sale was for $10 per proved & proable. Makes ATPG a 2.1 billion dollar mkt cap. Call the Chinese and sell it. Plus the Senior management are not kids anymore. Just my humble opionion.
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
Hey Devon,
China again sought to satisfy its hunger for natural resources, as state-owned Sinopec Group agreed to acquire oil-exploration company Addax Petroleum Corp. for 8.27 billion Canadian dollars (US$7.19 billion), in what would mark the largest overseas takeover by a Chinese company.
Addax information: The best cacalulations I could figure was that Addax would recieve a little less then $10 for proven, probable and possible reserves per barrell.....rouglhy 738.1(MMbbl) X $10 gives you close to the US$7.2 billion paid. Also both companies with similiar dept issues. This would value ATPG 200-220 (MMbbl) X $10=US$2-2.2 billion ($40-$45 a share). Obviously there are some very real differences between Addax & ATPG. But It tells you where the market is at.....
• Founded in 1994 with shares listed on the TSX (since February 2006) and the Main Market of the LSE (since May 2007) under the trading symbol “AXC” • With average production of 136.5 Mbbl/d for 2008, Addax Petroleum is one of the largest independent oil producers in West Africa and the Middle East • Total reserves and resources of approximately 1.9 billion boe as at December 31, 2008 comprised of: - 536.7 MMbbl of 2P reserves - 825.1 MMbbl of risked prospective oil resources (2,772 MMbbl unrisked) - 2.8 Tcf of contingent gas resources plus 83.5 MMbbl of associated gas liquids • 2P reserve life index of 10.8 years • Significant participating interests in four blocks of the highly prospective JDZ & a 72.5% interest in deepwater offshore Nigeria block OPL291, immediately adjacent to Chevron’s OML127 (Agbami) • 45% interest in the Taq Taq license area and 26.67% interest in the Sangaw North license area in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq • Total exploration, development and production acreage of 4.4 million acres net to Addax Petroleum Addax Petroleum Corporation (AXC) is an international oil and gas E&P company focused on Africa and the Middle East MARKET CAPITALIZATION CDN$4.3 BILLION (£2.4 BILLION) * as at March 31, 2009 TOTAL SHARES OUTSTANDING 157 MILLION (1) As at December 31, 2008, as set out in Addax Petroleum’s Annual Information Form dated March 4th, 2009. Totals may not add due to rounding. Properties Key Facts 2008 SALES US$4.6 BILLION 2008 FUNDS FLOW FROM OPERATIONS US$1.9 BILLION Snapshot 2008 CAPITAL INVESTMENT US$1.8 BILLION LONG-TERM DEBT (DEC 31, 2008) US$1.2 BILLION Country
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
Hey Devon,
Hope your doing well. I had a great trade. Second best of the year with ATPG. Watching for now with a potential rally in the dollar could add more pressure to oil. I have a couple of questions about ATPG and it's value. 1-Do they have any of there production hedged? Reason for asking, is that if the dollar rally hard, Oil could have a nice pullback into first quarter.
2-Does anyone have a good feel how the reserves are priced. I'm looking for other Oil companies that have been sold recently and it's closer to $10 a barrell of oil. Making ATPG closer to a $40 target vs. your $80. Either way a premium from here.
3-Also How much of an increase in proven reserves could be coming? They mentioned a increase, a few months back. But nothing since then.
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
Hey Devon,
Do you have any feel for EPS or estimates? I'm uncertain with the contractors sharing revenues from Telemark. Also I'm not sure of cost basis. I guess difficult to predict...Do you have any projections of EPS next year?
Thanks,
Mark
On Nov 02 12:45 PM Devon Shire wrote:
> I think what you are actually referring to is that production levels > will double in 2010. Revenue levels is going to be much more than > a double in 2010 over 2009 levels. There is first the benefit of > the much higher production (see my article or the company's last > presentation), then the fact that they are going be even more heavily > weighted to oil (Telemark is 76% oil) and finally they are going > to be selling oil at higher prices than 2009. > > They will likely not hit a billion in revenue in 2010, but by June/July > their annual run rate will be over a billion if production ramps > up as expected. Telemark comes on in stages during the first half > of the year.
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
Hey Devon,
Always enjoy your posts. Not sure if you have read the last presentation by ATPG, but the CFO states that a double in revenues is possible (ref: Bloomberg interview). Now I'm not sure if he is reffering to this years revenues and it will double next year. I think he stated that 1 billion in revenues is not out of the questions...Maybe run the numbers on EPS at a billion and it may give you a better picture. But I'm not sure how much of that will got tot he contractors for their services.
10 Upcoming Catalysts for ATP Oil and Gas [View article]
Devon,
This may be a silly question. But why would GE or others want some of these assets? Is this similiar to taking equity out of your home? Or will they share the use of the Titan Production Platform. Also the Pipelines...If they sell them, don't they still need to use them? So are they going to then pay rent to use them...Just trying to understand how appealing it is to sell and what are the disadvantages. I assume the advantage is that we get cash...I sold most of my shares after the offering, but hold a little to watch. It's not one of the stronger stocks in the group, but for the right price it would be worth a longer term hold.
Mark
On Jul 10 11:14 AM Devon Shire wrote:
> Chances of the Telemark pipeline going with it ? I don't know. I > wouldn't count on it, but we don't need to. There is also a chance > that they could sell of more than 50% of the Titan. I think the key > point is that they will sell off what they need to sell off. They > are lucky in that they have had all year to plan for how they are > going to do this. > > Why is such a high % short ? I don't know. I wish I had shorted it > at $50. It is a great hedge for an institution if they want to be > short oil in some manner. And it is small so the stock price can > be knocked around quite easily. I've looked at a few of the Deepwater > smaller guys and they all have pretty sizable short interests. Risky > on ATP in my opinion given the major events that look to be coming > in the next 6 months. > > Why did they want all the infrastructure and the accompanying debt > ? Well, I would imagine that when they were planning on how to develop > Telemark they likely didn't have $32 oil and $3.50 natural gas down > even in their worst case scenarios. And if they did they certainly > would have planned for the speed with which is got there. > > So, I certainly think that they would have done this differently > had they thought the credit crisis and commodity collapse were a > possibility. But yes, they have always carried quite a bit of debt > all through their existence. > > I think what is key to know about the current debt though is that > it was taken on to build out this infrastructure. The amount of infrastructure > in dollars (about $1bil) is close to the total amount of debt. If > this infrastructure can be monetized as the have said that it will > be in the coming months, then people may start to realize it's value. > > > And if they figure out that the infrastructure equals the debt. Then > that means the oil and gas reserves (200 million BOE) are left for > the equity holders. And that is a pretty good $$ amount per share. >
10 Upcoming Catalysts for ATP Oil and Gas [View article]
Hey Devin,
Oil is Oil.....They Paid roughly $14 for Proven reserves....Obviously dept, Size, location of reserves all play a role in price....They have to get rid of that dept or make it much lower and manageable, If they do I see no reason they could not sell proven reserves for a similiar price.....
Mark
On Jun 30 10:20 PM Devon Shire wrote:
> > I did. Any particular reason you ask ? > > I wasn't sure it would be all that helpful in a valuation of ATP. > Addax 4 key reserve areas are shallow water Guinea, Deepwater Guinea, > Gabon and Iraq. Oil is oil, but that is quite a difference from the > GOM and the Northe Sea. > > Let me know if you found something useful in the transaction please. >
ATP Oil & Gas: The Oil Patch's Next Blockbuster Takeover Candidate [View article]
Glass half empty or half full?
Stock went up almost 25% since your last comment.....Check
Last Quarter is gone...............Check
Production with Titan is on schedule...........Check
Dept not due until 2015.....................
And maybe you can make your pixie dust comment again and Puff we will be up another 25%.....
Regards,
Mark
Telemark commences production [View instapost]
Mark
Update to 2010 ATP Production Outlook [View instapost]
A Closer Look at ATP Oil and Gas Corp.'s Q4 [View article]
If your saying they are not relavent...Then i would point to both XOM/XTO and ADDAX Sinopec they sure did pay billions and billions for pixie dust..........
Mark
A Closer Look at ATP Oil and Gas Corp.'s Q4 [View article]
I think the best way to value a company is to see what the market is willing to pay for similiar E & P companies. All companies are different, but one must determine a general idea of value. A simple way is to look at what the market is offering today. One way for me is just to look at Proven and probable and divid by price offered. this does not account for any cash flow, just reserves.
-Althought ATPG is not XTO. XOM was willing to pay roughly $15.00 BOE
-ADDAX bought out buy China's Sinopec. Roughly $10.00
-Petrohawk is obvously a NG player, but do the converstion of the last couple of buyouts/Sales of reserves. they yield $5.83 & $2.12 of MCFE...from $35-12.75 BOE.
Under this model, ATPG with roughly 200M BOE prices them between a $2-3 billion net worth company. $40-50 a share with my model.....Just something to chew on......
Mark
Today in Commodities: Luck of the Irish [View article]
ATP Oil and Gas: Undervalued Stock with Major Price-Altering Catalysts Imminent [View article]
Mark
ATP Oil and Gas: Undervalued Stock with Major Price-Altering Catalysts Imminent [View article]
Another nice article....Do you have the acutal proven and probable in BOE? Is it 220MM BOE?
Thank you,
Mark
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
China again sought to satisfy its hunger for natural resources, as state-owned Sinopec Group agreed to acquire oil-exploration company Addax Petroleum Corp. for 8.27 billion Canadian dollars (US$7.19 billion), in what would mark the largest overseas takeover by a Chinese company.
Addax information: The best cacalulations I could figure was that Addax would recieve a little less then $10 for proven, probable and possible reserves per barrell.....rouglhy 738.1(MMbbl) X $10 gives you close to the US$7.2 billion paid. Also both companies with similiar dept issues. This would value ATPG 200-220 (MMbbl) X $10=US$2-2.2 billion ($40-$45 a share). Obviously there are some very real differences between Addax & ATPG. But It tells you where the market is at.....
Link to information:
www.addaxpetroleum.com...
• Founded in 1994 with shares listed on the TSX (since February 2006) and the Main Market
of the LSE (since May 2007) under the trading symbol “AXC”
• With average production of 136.5 Mbbl/d for 2008, Addax Petroleum is one of the largest
independent oil producers in West Africa and the Middle East
• Total reserves and resources of approximately 1.9 billion boe as at December 31, 2008
comprised of:
- 536.7 MMbbl of 2P reserves
- 825.1 MMbbl of risked prospective oil resources (2,772 MMbbl unrisked)
- 2.8 Tcf of contingent gas resources plus 83.5 MMbbl of associated gas liquids
• 2P reserve life index of 10.8 years
• Significant participating interests in four blocks of the highly prospective JDZ & a 72.5%
interest in deepwater offshore Nigeria block OPL291, immediately adjacent to Chevron’s
OML127 (Agbami)
• 45% interest in the Taq Taq license area and 26.67% interest in the Sangaw North license
area in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
• Total exploration, development and production acreage of 4.4 million acres net to
Addax Petroleum
Addax Petroleum Corporation (AXC) is an international oil and gas E&P company focused on
Africa and the Middle East
MARKET CAPITALIZATION
CDN$4.3 BILLION (£2.4 BILLION)
* as at March 31, 2009
TOTAL SHARES OUTSTANDING
157 MILLION
(1) As at December 31, 2008, as set out in Addax Petroleum’s Annual Information Form dated March 4th, 2009. Totals may not add due to rounding.
Properties
Key Facts
2008 SALES
US$4.6 BILLION
2008 FUNDS FLOW FROM OPERATIONS
US$1.9 BILLION
Snapshot
2008 CAPITAL INVESTMENT
US$1.8 BILLION
LONG-TERM DEBT (DEC 31, 2008)
US$1.2 BILLION
Country
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
Hope your doing well. I had a great trade. Second best of the year with ATPG. Watching for now with a potential rally in the dollar could add more pressure to oil. I have a couple of questions about ATPG and it's value.
1-Do they have any of there production hedged? Reason for asking, is that if the dollar rally hard, Oil could have a nice pullback into first quarter.
2-Does anyone have a good feel how the reserves are priced. I'm looking for other Oil companies that have been sold recently and it's closer to $10 a barrell of oil. Making ATPG closer to a $40 target vs. your $80. Either way a premium from here.
3-Also How much of an increase in proven reserves could be coming? They mentioned a increase, a few months back. But nothing since then.
Thanks again for you informative posts....
Mark
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
Do you have any feel for EPS or estimates? I'm uncertain with the contractors sharing revenues from Telemark. Also I'm not sure of cost basis. I guess difficult to predict...Do you have any projections of EPS next year?
Thanks,
Mark
On Nov 02 12:45 PM Devon Shire wrote:
> I think what you are actually referring to is that production levels
> will double in 2010. Revenue levels is going to be much more than
> a double in 2010 over 2009 levels. There is first the benefit of
> the much higher production (see my article or the company's last
> presentation), then the fact that they are going be even more heavily
> weighted to oil (Telemark is 76% oil) and finally they are going
> to be selling oil at higher prices than 2009.
>
> They will likely not hit a billion in revenue in 2010, but by June/July
> their annual run rate will be over a billion if production ramps
> up as expected. Telemark comes on in stages during the first half
> of the year.
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
Always enjoy your posts. Not sure if you have read the last presentation by ATPG, but the CFO states that a double in revenues is possible (ref: Bloomberg interview). Now I'm not sure if he is reffering to this years revenues and it will double next year. I think he stated that 1 billion in revenues is not out of the questions...Maybe run the numbers on EPS at a billion and it may give you a better picture. But I'm not sure how much of that will got tot he contractors for their services.
Enjoy the posts,
Mark
ATP Oil & Gas: Production Should Triple in Next 9 Months [View article]
10 Upcoming Catalysts for ATP Oil and Gas [View article]
This may be a silly question. But why would GE or others want some of these assets? Is this similiar to taking equity out of your home? Or will they share the use of the Titan Production Platform. Also the Pipelines...If they sell them, don't they still need to use them? So are they going to then pay rent to use them...Just trying to understand how appealing it is to sell and what are the disadvantages. I assume the advantage is that we get cash...I sold most of my shares after the offering, but hold a little to watch. It's not one of the stronger stocks in the group, but for the right price it would be worth a longer term hold.
Mark
On Jul 10 11:14 AM Devon Shire wrote:
> Chances of the Telemark pipeline going with it ? I don't know. I
> wouldn't count on it, but we don't need to. There is also a chance
> that they could sell of more than 50% of the Titan. I think the key
> point is that they will sell off what they need to sell off. They
> are lucky in that they have had all year to plan for how they are
> going to do this.
>
> Why is such a high % short ? I don't know. I wish I had shorted it
> at $50. It is a great hedge for an institution if they want to be
> short oil in some manner. And it is small so the stock price can
> be knocked around quite easily. I've looked at a few of the Deepwater
> smaller guys and they all have pretty sizable short interests. Risky
> on ATP in my opinion given the major events that look to be coming
> in the next 6 months.
>
> Why did they want all the infrastructure and the accompanying debt
> ? Well, I would imagine that when they were planning on how to develop
> Telemark they likely didn't have $32 oil and $3.50 natural gas down
> even in their worst case scenarios. And if they did they certainly
> would have planned for the speed with which is got there.
>
> So, I certainly think that they would have done this differently
> had they thought the credit crisis and commodity collapse were a
> possibility. But yes, they have always carried quite a bit of debt
> all through their existence.
>
> I think what is key to know about the current debt though is that
> it was taken on to build out this infrastructure. The amount of infrastructure
> in dollars (about $1bil) is close to the total amount of debt. If
> this infrastructure can be monetized as the have said that it will
> be in the coming months, then people may start to realize it's value.
>
>
> And if they figure out that the infrastructure equals the debt. Then
> that means the oil and gas reserves (200 million BOE) are left for
> the equity holders. And that is a pretty good $$ amount per share.
>
10 Upcoming Catalysts for ATP Oil and Gas [View article]
Oil is Oil.....They Paid roughly $14 for Proven reserves....Obviously dept, Size, location of reserves all play a role in price....They have to get rid of that dept or make it much lower and manageable, If they do I see no reason they could not sell proven reserves for a similiar price.....
Mark
On Jun 30 10:20 PM Devon Shire wrote:
>
> I did. Any particular reason you ask ?
>
> I wasn't sure it would be all that helpful in a valuation of ATP.
> Addax 4 key reserve areas are shallow water Guinea, Deepwater Guinea,
> Gabon and Iraq. Oil is oil, but that is quite a difference from the
> GOM and the Northe Sea.
>
> Let me know if you found something useful in the transaction please.
>