Adrian Ash's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/42557/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174166/comments?source=feed#comment-768997 768997 Sounds like you guessed my take on the "story". Our response to concerned clients has been posted on various blogs...

www.prisonplanet.com/t...

Adrian


On Nov 19 02:19 PM Screwloose wrote:

Hi Adrian

Another valuable piece - thanks.

OK; be gentle, but what's your take on Rob Kirby's claim that plated tungsten fakes, in quantity, have penetrated the chain of accreditation?

We could really use a whole article from yourself on that - covering things like; whether it's possible; the practicalities [how would
you stamp anything into tungsten?] whether, to your knowledge, there has ever been a confirmed case and what do the professional metallurgists say about possible [acoustic?] screening methods to differentiate?]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:59:14 -0500 Sounds like you guessed my take on the "story". Our response to concerned clients has been posted on various blogs...

www.prisonplanet.com/t...

Adrian


On Nov 19 02:19 PM Screwloose wrote:

Hi Adrian

Another valuable piece - thanks.

OK; be gentle, but what's your take on Rob Kirby's claim that plated tungsten fakes, in quantity, have penetrated the chain of accreditation?

We could really use a whole article from yourself on that - covering things like; whether it's possible; the practicalities [how would
you stamp anything into tungsten?] whether, to your knowledge, there has ever been a confirmed case and what do the professional metallurgists say about possible [acoustic?] screening methods to differentiate?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169105/comments?source=feed#comment-733982 733982
To the very best of my knowledge (we talk to the market 3 or 4 times a day, using a variety of dealers) there are no shortages or delivery hiccups. There weren't any problems even amid the surge of physical buying this time last year, back when retail coin dealers faced genuine shortages and premiums doubled and more.

Nor can you deal gold futures at the LME (a different organization altogether, but another mistaken claim online...), because the London Metals Exchange does NOT currently offer precious metal contracts. It's apparently been considering it though, perhaps spurred by the CME offering to clear loco-London forwards contracts. Far as I can see, London's wholesale dealers aren't much interested in that anyway.

All loco-London trading is done buyer-to-seller direct -- typically by phone -- in unique deals. That's why there is no single spot price, just an average of different quotes offered by individual firms at any one time. The two parties to each deal are on the hook, by themselves.

Yes, there are 5 market-making members, but that simply means they promise to quote two-way prices throughout London hours. The Good Delivery standards for LBMA-approved bars and storage make this OTC dealing more efficient than non-standard, unproven units would allow. LBMA membership makes for a network of high-repute, closely involved firms.

LBMA's guide to OTC gold is well worth reading:
www.lbma.org.uk/docs/O...

We also get an occasional jolly, like next week's annual LBMA conference. But it was scheduled for Lima, Peru, and then down-sized to Edinburgh, Scotland, because the bank dealers were told they couldn't justify the expense to their bosses amid the crunch.

Looking at bank profits now, you can see the respect gold dealers get, even with gold up four-fold in 10 years and even within their own organizations...

LAURENCE -- we're certainly seeing fresh business from chunkier clients, but as with most BullionVault users, they buy the dips, not the spikes. I'd like to think "weak to strong hands" applies to scrap-gold vs. investment demand over the last two years.

TOM -- if the Comex longs pull back by choice, I'm not sure the background would be urgent enough for physical demand to match what we saw after Lehmans collapsed. If they're forced out, on the other hand -- say by credit crunch part two, or even CFTC limits -- I'd expect real metal demand to jump on the dips once again.

On Oct 27 10:23 AM Screwloose wrote:

> Adrian
>
> Very valuable piece of analysis - thanks.
>
> What's you view on the state of LBMA physical stocks? There have
> been various strange occurrences of late that could be explained
> as hiccups in the supply chain - have you heard of anything similar?
>
>
> (I see Da Boyz are busy bashing today - anyone would think it's options
> expiry day.......)]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:28:08 -0400
To the very best of my knowledge (we talk to the market 3 or 4 times a day, using a variety of dealers) there are no shortages or delivery hiccups. There weren't any problems even amid the surge of physical buying this time last year, back when retail coin dealers faced genuine shortages and premiums doubled and more.

Nor can you deal gold futures at the LME (a different organization altogether, but another mistaken claim online...), because the London Metals Exchange does NOT currently offer precious metal contracts. It's apparently been considering it though, perhaps spurred by the CME offering to clear loco-London forwards contracts. Far as I can see, London's wholesale dealers aren't much interested in that anyway.

All loco-London trading is done buyer-to-seller direct -- typically by phone -- in unique deals. That's why there is no single spot price, just an average of different quotes offered by individual firms at any one time. The two parties to each deal are on the hook, by themselves.

Yes, there are 5 market-making members, but that simply means they promise to quote two-way prices throughout London hours. The Good Delivery standards for LBMA-approved bars and storage make this OTC dealing more efficient than non-standard, unproven units would allow. LBMA membership makes for a network of high-repute, closely involved firms.

LBMA's guide to OTC gold is well worth reading:
www.lbma.org.uk/docs/O...

We also get an occasional jolly, like next week's annual LBMA conference. But it was scheduled for Lima, Peru, and then down-sized to Edinburgh, Scotland, because the bank dealers were told they couldn't justify the expense to their bosses amid the crunch.

Looking at bank profits now, you can see the respect gold dealers get, even with gold up four-fold in 10 years and even within their own organizations...

LAURENCE -- we're certainly seeing fresh business from chunkier clients, but as with most BullionVault users, they buy the dips, not the spikes. I'd like to think "weak to strong hands" applies to scrap-gold vs. investment demand over the last two years.

TOM -- if the Comex longs pull back by choice, I'm not sure the background would be urgent enough for physical demand to match what we saw after Lehmans collapsed. If they're forced out, on the other hand -- say by credit crunch part two, or even CFTC limits -- I'd expect real metal demand to jump on the dips once again.

On Oct 27 10:23 AM Screwloose wrote:

> Adrian
>
> Very valuable piece of analysis - thanks.
>
> What's you view on the state of LBMA physical stocks? There have
> been various strange occurrences of late that could be explained
> as hiccups in the supply chain - have you heard of anything similar?
>
>
> (I see Da Boyz are busy bashing today - anyone would think it's options
> expiry day.......)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163166/comments?source=feed#comment-690443 690443 goldnews.bullionvault....]]> Fri, 25 Sep 2009 06:36:24 -0400 goldnews.bullionvault....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145086/comments?source=feed#comment-560531 560531 www.e-elgar.co.uk/Book...]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:48:56 -0400 www.e-elgar.co.uk/Book...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141272/comments?source=feed#comment-533084 533084 www.research.gold.org/... ). Still applies GDP weights from 10 years ago!

Chartflow's a great site, thanks for the link. For major crosses -- live and historic -- hard to beat HIFX:

www.hifx.com/marketwat...]]> Fri, 05 Jun 2009 05:17:25 -0400 www.research.gold.org/... ). Still applies GDP weights from 10 years ago!

Chartflow's a great site, thanks for the link. For major crosses -- live and historic -- hard to beat HIFX:

www.hifx.com/marketwat...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134205/comments?source=feed#comment-486471 486471 goldnews.bullionvault....


On Apr 30 09:45 PM jambo wrote:

> I would like to see a similar study using U.S. housing market data.
> Anyone have the charts?]]> Sat, 02 May 2009 06:02:14 -0400 goldnews.bullionvault....


On Apr 30 09:45 PM jambo wrote:

> I would like to see a similar study using U.S. housing market data.
> Anyone have the charts?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128150/comments?source=feed#comment-441965 441965
Nobody could understand why our users would want metal instead of paper...

Since then, our users have chosen not to hold gold in New York anyway. NY storage accounts for less than 2% of current 16.1 tonnes total. More than 90% of US-owned gold at BullionVault sits in Zurich, Switzerland.

You can see the difference in volume (plus the range of NY bar sizes compared to the 400-oz good delivery bars held in London and Zurich) on our Daily Audit here:
www.bullionvault.com/a...
]]> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 05:25:23 -0400
Nobody could understand why our users would want metal instead of paper...

Since then, our users have chosen not to hold gold in New York anyway. NY storage accounts for less than 2% of current 16.1 tonnes total. More than 90% of US-owned gold at BullionVault sits in Zurich, Switzerland.

You can see the difference in volume (plus the range of NY bar sizes compared to the 400-oz good delivery bars held in London and Zurich) on our Daily Audit here:
www.bullionvault.com/a...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126813/comments?source=feed#comment-433225 433225 www.federalreserve.gov... says "longer-term" -- no? Either way, UK's Bank of England buying 5- to 25-year gilts...which just screwed a new short-dated auction: www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c67...

On Mar 19 03:02 PM Tetrapod wrote:

> Interesting article. Thanks!
> One minor correction: I don't believe the Fed is buying 30-year
> treasuries. Their statement indicated that they were going for 7
> and 10 year issues. If you know otherwise, please let me know :-)
> ]]> Fri, 20 Mar 2009 05:41:45 -0400 www.federalreserve.gov... says "longer-term" -- no? Either way, UK's Bank of England buying 5- to 25-year gilts...which just screwed a new short-dated auction: www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c67...

On Mar 19 03:02 PM Tetrapod wrote:

> Interesting article. Thanks!
> One minor correction: I don't believe the Fed is buying 30-year
> treasuries. Their statement indicated that they were going for 7
> and 10 year issues. If you know otherwise, please let me know :-)
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126813/comments?source=feed#comment-433212 433212 goldnews.bullionvault....)

Reminds me of gold's "mistaken identity" c.2002-2008, when it was confused for a happy-hedge-funds leverage play (see John Hathaway writing in mid-06: www.tocqueville.com/ar...). Strong buying by China/Russia would mean they're hunkering down. Announcing it would be saber-rattling, not dollar diversification.

What can me and you do about it? No idea. Lots of analysis for surviving deflation/inflation right now (see SocGen's James Montier this week: goldnews.bullionvault....). But I've yet to read any serious analysts beyond Marc Faber wondering how to defend wealth against war or revolution.


On Mar 19 03:16 PM paultaut wrote:

> Adrian: I like your Articles. Back on Sept. 7th 2008, you wrote about
> "Super Dollar?". I said I checked your Credentials.
>
> The Article above drew my attention because I couldn't/can't figure
> out what the Rumor is...
]]> Fri, 20 Mar 2009 05:32:24 -0400 goldnews.bullionvault....)

Reminds me of gold's "mistaken identity" c.2002-2008, when it was confused for a happy-hedge-funds leverage play (see John Hathaway writing in mid-06: www.tocqueville.com/ar...). Strong buying by China/Russia would mean they're hunkering down. Announcing it would be saber-rattling, not dollar diversification.

What can me and you do about it? No idea. Lots of analysis for surviving deflation/inflation right now (see SocGen's James Montier this week: goldnews.bullionvault....). But I've yet to read any serious analysts beyond Marc Faber wondering how to defend wealth against war or revolution.


On Mar 19 03:16 PM paultaut wrote:

> Adrian: I like your Articles. Back on Sept. 7th 2008, you wrote about
> "Super Dollar?". I said I checked your Credentials.
>
> The Article above drew my attention because I couldn't/can't figure
> out what the Rumor is...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126813/comments?source=feed#comment-432340 432340 ]]> Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:36:16 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/38305/comments?source=feed#comment-88570 88570 Thu, 14 Jun 2007 10:23:08 -0400