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  • The Cheaper iPhone Is Already Here [View article]
    Verizon did have a blow-out quarter, but AT&T's total 4Q12 smartphone unit sales grew only 6% over 4Q11, which is a marked deceleration from 4Q11/4Q10 growth of 27% (http://bit.ly/ZChGn5).

    With respect to the China Mobile news, it is surprising to see the stock price retreat so quickly.
    Jan 10, 2013. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T announces the sale of more than 10M smartphones in Q4 vs. 9.4M a year ago. "This included best-ever quarterly sales of Android and Apple smartphones." This would suggest Q4 iPhone sales in the 7M-8M range, says BI's Jay Yarow. AAPL +1%, T -1.3% premarket. (PR[View news story]
    The 6% Q412/Q411 growth rate is a significant deceleration from the 27% growth rate in Q411, as compared to Q410 (7.4M "integrated devices - http://soc.att.com/ZChGn5)
    Jan 8, 2013. 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened To The Amazon Productivity Machine? A Look At Revenue-Per-Employee [View article]
    mortegaai1974:

    According to Amazon's 2011 10k (p. 26), AWS is included in "Other" Revenue, which was approx. $1.6B in 2011, representing only 3.3% of Amazon's total revenue. In 2Q12, "Other" revenue was about 4.3% of total revenues.

    So, assuming that AWS accounts for the vast majority of "Other" revenue, it represented less than 5% of revenues in 2Q12, despite its rapid growth.
    Oct 23, 2012. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Slips To Key Technical Support Ahead Of 3Q 2012 Earnings [View article]
    You wrote:
    " ...an overlooked part of its business are the hosted web services & cloud-computing segments that are contributing meaningful revenue."

    According to Amazon's 2011 10k (p. 26), AWS is included in "Other" Revenue, which was approx. $1.6B in 2011, representing only 3.3% of Amazon's total revenue. In their latest quarter, "Other" revenue was about 4.3% of total revenues.

    So, assuming that AWS accounts for the vast majority of "Other" revenue, it represented less than 5% of revenues in 2Q12, despite its rapid growth. So, "meaningful" can be interpreted a number of ways, but it is probably more appropriate in describing the profit contribution from AWS.

    Also, Gartner estimates in their 2Q12 update (see link below - actual numbers were not available, so I had to estimate from the chart) that the total worldwide market in 2011 for Web hosted services, including: Platform as a Service (PaaS), Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Software as a Service, was about $17B, estimated to grow to about $22B in 2012 (approx. 30% yoy growth).
    http://onforb.es/R70FMe

    So, if one assumes that 100% of Amazon's "Other" revenue in 2011 was AWS (very generous assumption), it would have represented less than 10% revenue share of the the worldwide Web hosted infrastructure market in 2011.
    Oct 23, 2012. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google (GOOG) states on its Q3 earnings call (webcast, live blog) its mobile business (ads + Google Play, though mostly ads) is now on an $8B/year run rate. A year ago, the company noted its mobile ad business was on a $2.5B/year run rate. Larry Page, who was sidelined for some time by an ailment that caused him to lose his voice, still doesn't sound like his usual self. Shares +0.7% AH after falling 8% in regular trading. (earnings slides - PDF) (more[View news story]
    BigJ1260 - good questions.

    Regarding the mobile business run-rate, Google Play may help boost revenues, but it will probably only add a negligible amount to profits, since Google pays 70% to content developers and must use the rest to meet operating costs of the store. As I have stated on other posts, Peter Oppenheimer, the CFO of Apple, has stated that Apple runs the iTunes and AppStore at about break-even.

    Also, an important question regarding decreasing cost-per-clicks is whether mobile search is actually substituting for desktop search, or is it incremental to desktop search? Of course, if mobile is substituting for desktop, Google has a more difficult task in front of it.
    Oct 19, 2012. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are The Robots? [View article]
    In addition to utilizing a bearish Debit Put spread, Put Backspreads (sell a Put close to at the money or in the money and use the proceeds to buy twice as many out-of-the money Puts) around potentially volatile earnings events is another strategy with less risk than outright shorting.
    http://bit.ly/PCbkjU

    Sometimes, Backspreads can be entered for a slight credit and losses are limited to the difference between the short put strike price and the long put strike price, plus any credit/debit from opening the trade.

    Deep in the money long Puts (high Delta) are also another way to benefit from downward stock price movements. This strategy entails a decent amount of capital, relative to an out of the money long put spread, and sufficient option liquidity in order to minimize the bid-ask spread.
    Oct 17, 2012. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We've got a little more to show you," says Apple (AAPL +1.9%) in an invite for a widely-expected Oct. 23 event to be held in San Jose at 1PM ET. All signs point to an iPad Mini launch - will new Mac Minis and a 13" retina MacBook Pro also arrive? [View news story]
    bjnflicks:
    Agreed, Apple will make significant profits on the iPad Mini, since the incremental investment for the Mini is relatively small (even if gross margins will probably be lower), since it leverages much of the investment in the iPad.

    As for making significant profits from selling content in the App Store and iTunes, Peter Oppenheimer, the Apple CFO, has stated that Apple runs their content stores at break-even (see quote and link to earnings transcript below).

    "Peter Oppenheimer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
    ...Regarding the App Store and the iTunes stores, we are running those a bit over break even and that hasn’t changed."
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    The content Apple sells is a means to an end; the "end" being the selling of their high-margin devices.
    Oct 16, 2012. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An 8GB Wi-Fi-only version of the iPad Mini (AAPL) will cost just $249, according to an inventory screenshot leak - that would make the device, expected to sport a 7.85" display, $50 more expensive than the 7" 8GB Nexus 7 and 16GB Kindle Fire HD. But a 16Gb Wi-Fi version will go for $349, as will an 8GB 3G/4G version. The most costly model listed (a 64GB 3G/4G unit) will reportedly sell for $649. Apple is expected to unveil the Mini at an Oct. 23 event. (retina MacBook Pro[View news story]
    Peter Oppenheimer, Apple CFO, stated on the F1Q10 earnings call, on Jan. 25, 2010, that the Apple App Store and iTunes stores are basically run at break-even (http://seekingalpha.co...). See excerpt from call below:

    "Peter Oppenheimer - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
    ...Regarding the App Store and the iTunes stores, we are running those a bit over break even and that hasn’t changed."

    Apple tolerates low-margins on content sales, which carry significant royalties, in order to enable sales of their high-margin devices.
    Oct 15, 2012. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blodget Was Right: Do Not Short Amazon Stock [View article]
    Salman Marvell:
    "Amazon is the original and largest rent a cloud provider..."

    According to Amazon's 2011 10k (p. 26), AWS is included in "Other" Revenue, which was approx. $1.6B in 2011, representing only 3.3% of Amazon's total revenue. In their latest quarter, "Other" revenue was about 4.3% of total revenues.

    So, assuming that AWS accounts for the vast majority of "Other" revenue, it represented less than 5% of revenues in 2Q12, despite its rapid growth.

    Gartner estimates in their 2Q12 update (see link below - actual numbers were not available, so I had to estimate from the chart) that the total worldwide market in 2011 for Internet hosted services, including: Platform as a Service (PaaS), Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Software as a Service, was about $17B, estimated to grow to about $22B in 2012 (approx. 30% yoy growth).
    http://onforb.es/R70FMe

    So, if one assumes that 100% of Amazon's "Other" revenue in 2011 was AWS (very generous assumption), it would have represented less than 10% revenue share of the the worldwide Internet hosted infrastructure market in 2011.
    Oct 1, 2012. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Embrace This Dip In Apple [View article]
    Jon T:
    "China Telecom will bring another big move..."

    It was reported by CNET on 9/26 that the iPhone 5 received regulatory approval in China for both China Telecom and China Unicom - see excerpt from article below (http://cnet.co/PdEQ9z):

    "The iPhone 5 is now officially certified for China...
    One goes by the model number A1429, which would be geared for China Unicom's WCDMA network and match up with the Hong Kong version of the iPhone 5, Sina Tech said. The other is model A1442, which would work on China Telecom's CDMA2000 network."

    Another potentially bullish fact mentioned in the same article is that the Qualcomm baseband chip is compatible with China Mobile's proprietary TD-SCDMA standard:

    " But a recent teardown of the iPhone by iFixit discovered a Qualcomm modem. That model can talk to networks using TD-SCDMA, the same standard used by China Mobile, reports The Wall Street Journal."
    Sep 28, 2012. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Amazon's Margins [View article]
    morrisdev:
    "Over 10%, almost 20% of their entire revenue is from Web Services..."

    According to Amazon's 2011 10k (p. 26), AWS is included in "Other" Revenue, which was approx. $1.6B in 2011, representing only 3.3% of Amazon's total revenue. In their latest quarter, "Other" revenue was about 4.3% of total revenues.

    So, assuming that AWS accounts for the vast majority of "Other" revenue, it represented less than 5% of revenues in 2Q12, despite its rapid growth.
    Sep 27, 2012. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Cloud, It's Amazon Vs. The Rest [View article]
    Question... "...Amazon has been a leader, and a monopoly level dominance in cloud providers..."

    According to Amazon's 2011 10k (p. 26), AWS is included in "Other" Revenue, which was approx. $1.6B in 2011, representing 3.3% of Amazon's total revenue.

    Also, Gartner estimates in their 2Q12 update (see link below - actual numbers were not available, so I had to estimate from the chart) that the total worldwide market for 2011 Internet hosted services, including: Platform as a Service (PaaS), Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), and Software as a Service was about $17B.
    http://onforb.es/R70FMe

    So, if one assumes that 100% of Amazon's "Other" revenue in 2011 was AWS, it would have represented less than10% revenue share of the the worldwide Internet hosted infrastructure market in 2011, hardly a monopoly position. Also, the vast majority of "Other" revenue is based in North America.
    Sep 25, 2012. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TSMC (TSM +2.5%) is still expected to eventually replace Samsung (SSNLF.PK) as Apple's (AAPL) mobile processor foundry partner, but no one is sure when. TSMC was once expected to make the A6 processor going into the iPhone 5, but it looks as if Apple stuck with Samsung - TSMC's 28nm issues may have been a factor. Nonetheless, the company will benefit from iPhone 5 demand thanks to its foundry deals with suppliers such as Qualcomm, Broadcom, OmniVision, and Cirrus Logic. (Apple NAND orders[View news story]
    Got it. I had assumed "the company" was Apple. Thanks for the clarification.
    Sep 14, 2012. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TSMC (TSM +2.5%) is still expected to eventually replace Samsung (SSNLF.PK) as Apple's (AAPL) mobile processor foundry partner, but no one is sure when. TSMC was once expected to make the A6 processor going into the iPhone 5, but it looks as if Apple stuck with Samsung - TSMC's 28nm issues may have been a factor. Nonetheless, the company will benefit from iPhone 5 demand thanks to its foundry deals with suppliers such as Qualcomm, Broadcom, OmniVision, and Cirrus Logic. (Apple NAND orders[View news story]
    Correct, but the news item gives the reader the impression that Qualcomm, Broadcom, and Cirrus Logic manufacture Apple designed parts, like Samsung. Apple does not design the Qualcomm baseband or Cirrus Logic audio chips. Apple can't have "foundry" deals with companies that don't have a foundry.
    Sep 14, 2012. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TSMC (TSM +2.5%) is still expected to eventually replace Samsung (SSNLF.PK) as Apple's (AAPL) mobile processor foundry partner, but no one is sure when. TSMC was once expected to make the A6 processor going into the iPhone 5, but it looks as if Apple stuck with Samsung - TSMC's 28nm issues may have been a factor. Nonetheless, the company will benefit from iPhone 5 demand thanks to its foundry deals with suppliers such as Qualcomm, Broadcom, OmniVision, and Cirrus Logic. (Apple NAND orders[View news story]
    Qualcomm, Broadcom, and Cirrus Logic are fabless; they sell their own OEM desgned parts to Apple.

    http://bit.ly/O3WxxN-
    Sep 14, 2012. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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