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426260

426260
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  • Trading Strategies For Apple And Amazon Investors [View article]
    What's the source of the 4.7 million Kindle Fire number?
    Apr 30, 2012. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Trade Alert: Salesforce.com Iron Condor [View article]
    The earnings date is not on Salesforce.com's web site, but I have seen estimates ranging from May 17 to May 21. If they announce on May 17, that would be before May 19 options expiration, which would warrant careful monitoring.
    Apr 27, 2012. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: Undervalued By $140, Ready To Jump Higher [View article]
    By acquiring Motorola Mobility, Google will have the capability to more tightly integrate software/hardware and application services.

    Of course, if Google is perceived to be giving preferences to Motorola; significant Android partners, especially Samsung, may be tempted to devote more resources to other operating systems, like Windows.

    Also, after the Motorola acquisition, Google's financials will be negatively impacted, since Motorola had GAAP losses in both 2011 and 2010. Also, Motorola brings over 20,000 additional employees, but this number may be reduced, if Google sells the set-top box business.
    Apr 19, 2012. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protective Covered Call For Protecting Profits In Apple [View article]
    Your maximum margin requirement should be the difference between the strikes minus the credit you collect. So, $10,000 <10 contracts X 100*$10> - $2150< $2.15*1000> = $7850
    Apr 15, 2012. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protective Covered Call For Protecting Profits In Apple [View article]
    So, your strategy is more than just a covered call, but a "collar", because you are buying the protective put with the proceeds from the sale of the call. You may want to change the title to reflect that you are recommending a form of a debit "collar".
    Apr 13, 2012. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Downgrade Highlights Competitors' Strengths [View article]
    You wrote: "The enterprise leverages with debt and invests in financial assets. They are less liquid and solvent than most of their competition. Year-to-date the firm is up about 14 percent, and a little below 30 percent in the last year."

    Evaluating IBM's solvency has to take into account that IBM relies on significant debt to support its Global Financing operations. As of 4Q11, Global Financing accounted for approx. 75% of IBM's total debt of $31 B (http://ibm.co/HVyvg9).

    Regarding the stock price appreciation over the last year, I assume you meant "up" "a little below 30 percent", since the stock was approx. $165/shr in early April 2011, which would mean it has appreciated approx. 24% over the past year, assuming a $205/shr. price.
    Apr 5, 2012. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will These 2012 High Fliers Continue To Soar? [View article]
    Here is a quote from the last quarter's earnings call, which states that a move to multi-year invoicing led to a significant increase in deferred revenue:

    CFO Graham Smith stated (http://bit.ly/HFncJX):

    "With the operational excellence around the annual invoicing contributing to our strong growth in current deferred revenue, the multiyear invoice caused the increase in long-term deferred revenue. If you exclude these 2 factors, we estimate that the total revenue on the balance sheet increased approximately 31% year-over-year."

    Without the move to multi-year invoicing, Salesforce.com reported 48% year-over-year growth in deferred revenue.
    Apr 2, 2012. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Is Fairly Valued But Offers Growth [View article]
    Nice analysis. How does your analysis change when incorporating the acquisitoin of Motorola Mobility, which comes with significant headcount additions and a relatively low-margin handset business?
    Mar 29, 2012. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Battle Of The Retailers: Amazon Looks Overpriced [View article]
    Margin compression is also due to a 67% increase in employees from 4Q10 (33,700) to 4Q11 (56,200), as reported in Amazon's 4Q11 quarterly results.
    Mar 28, 2012. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back-Testing: Trading Google Options Pre-Earnings [View article]
    Great article.
    Mar 22, 2012. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Netflix Long Term Business Plan May Actually Work [View article]
    Netflix uses content delivery networks, such as Level 3 and Akamai to stream their content. Amazon also hosts certain applications for Netflix.

    See:
    "Netflix inks CDN deal with Level 3, confirms Akamai worries":
    http://zd.net/q1Eh1x

    and the Netflix 10K
    Mar 20, 2012. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Implied Volatility: What Does It Tell Us? [View article]
    The last time I checked on a Bloomberg terminal, the estimate was April 20 for the next earnings release.
    Mar 19, 2012. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Still Overpriced, But Will Come Down To Earth [View article]
    Yes, AWS does offer growth potential, but it accounted for at most $1.6B in 2011 (this assumes that 100% of "other" revenue is AWS), which represents only about 3% of Amazon's 2011 revenue of $48B.

    Also, competition from the OpenStack standard, supported by Rackspace, IBM, HP, Dell and Cisco, is being offered as an alternative to Amazon's proprietary EC2 platform.

    AWS margin compression is also a distinct possibility; since, as noted on Seeking Alpha, Microsoft and Google have lowered pricing on their internet hosting services to counter Amazon's recent price reductions.
    Mar 13, 2012. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Risk For Google In The Mobile Revolution? [View article]
    In Google's last quarterly report, some analysts theorized that mobile search had begun to substitute for desktop search to some extent, negatively impacting revenues and margins.
    Mar 2, 2012. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX), which ended Q4 with less than 24M streaming subscribers, is aiming to eventually have 60M-90M, or 2x-3x as many as HBO, according to a presentation from Reed Hastings. His logic: Netflix is cheaper than HBO, doesn't require a cable subscription, offers a wider selection of content, and features a personalized UI. It has also been labeled as "rerun TV" due to its focus on older shows. (earlier)  [View news story]
    Good observation. Initially, I thought the 60M-90M was global, but I read the presentation, and it looks like the reference was the U.S. This subscriber target must imply multiple subscriptions per household.
    Feb 15, 2012. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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