User 42641's Comments

Penn Gaming Acquisition Not a Gamble

Fri, 18 Apr 2008 10:12:09 -0400

Wholeheartedly agree -- see the excellent Lehman note on this merger arbitrage.

Bear Stearns Should Go for More Than $6 - Barron's

Mon, 24 Mar 2008 15:08:40 -0400

A lot of overconfidence on display from some of the people leaving comments here:

"Deal is done. not a penny more. Where is the writers full disclosure? Obviously a Bear shareholder who has lost alot of money and is still in denial."
- Frank G

"Barron's has been wrong so many times that I wouldn't take them seriously. Bear is out the door for two bucks. Anyone who bets differently is a loser."
- WanderSF

"This article resembles most posts on the yahoo message boards. Pump everyone up for more money and sucker more longs in to be left holding the bag when this gets sold for the arranged $2 per share. Jamie Dimon will not up the bid. End of story. Barron's should stick to reporting the facts and not rumors from the message boards."
- bearmarket

As it turns out, JPMorgan did raise its bid. Instead of questioning the motives of the Seeking Alpha editor, the posters would do better to reflect on the behavioral biases which led them to conclude that a raised bid could never happen.

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Home Depot's Supply Unit Sale Was a Fiasco

Tue, 25 Sep 2007 17:02:16 -0400

Todd,

Thanks for responding.

Your response to my comment refers to receipts and is entirely correct. However, in your original piece you wrote: "The Home Depot (HD) Supply unit sold for $8.5 billion, about $2 billion less than the originally agreed-upon $10.3 billion price tag,[...]"

This is misleading because the $8.5 billion represents only the first part of the transaction. When one accounts for the second part of the transaction (the $325 million paid by Home Depot for a 12.5% stake in HD Supply), this yields an implied valuation for the whole of HD Supply of $9.34 billion, as I explained.

Alex Dumortier

Risk Perception Has Changed - Weakness Ahead

Wed, 12 Sep 2007 17:07:55 -0400

A "Puetz window"? Surely you jest, sir!

Home Depot's Supply Unit Sale Was a Fiasco

Thu, 06 Sep 2007 10:25:13 -0400

"The Home Depot (HD) Supply unit sold for $8.5 billion, about $2 billion less than the originally agreed-upon $10.3 billion price tag,"

This presentation of the facts is very misleading. If the private equity consortium pays $8.5 billion for HD Supply and Home Depot then purchases a 12.5% stake in HD Supply for $325 million, the effective valuation of HD Supply is (8.5 - .325) / (1 - .125) = $9.34 billion, or approximately $960 million less than the original $10.3 billion purchase price.

Bizarrely negative piece on Home Depot, in line with the tone of the author's prior contributions on the company.

Alex Dumortier, CFA

Full Disclosure: I have no beneficial interest in Home Depot shares, but I do cover the stock on behalf of The Motley Fool Inside Value, as it is one of our stock recommendations.

Home Depot: This Buyback Was Destined To Fail

Thu, 30 Aug 2007 13:14:52 -0400

"This Buyback Was Destined to Faill"

"It looks like the Home Depot Supply unit sale that was scheduled to close today won't get done."

The sale of HD Supply is set to close today. Bizarrely pessimistic piece on Home Depot, in line with the tone of the author's prior contributions on the company.

Alex Dumortier, CFA

Full Disclosure: I have no beneficial interest in Home Depot shares, but I do cover the stock on behalf of The Motley Fool Inside Value, as it is one of our stock recommendations.

Is Home Depot's Share Buyback At Risk? My Question Answered

Mon, 13 Aug 2007 12:21:13 -0400

Like almost everything else they have done recently, the huge share repurchase announcement by Home Depot will end up making them look bad.

Todd,

I've read the last couple of articles you've published on Home Depot and they express very negative views on the company -- beyond what the facts would warrant, in my opinion. In fact, unless you believe the share are fairly valued at current levels, I'm surprised that you would have such strong opinions on the company without caring to express them via a short position in the stock. I say this not to impugn your integrity -- I'm willing to believe that you don't have a position in the stock -- but to try to understand what is holding you back from taking one.

Alex Dumortier, CFA

Full disclosure: I have no beneficial interest in Home Depot, but I do follow the company on behalf of The Motley Fool Inside Value, a value investing newsletter that selected HD as a monthly pick.

Three Stocks Strategically Placed Within Complex Network Structures

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 10:09:19 -0400

Microsoft was the acquirer of aQuantive<... not Yahoo!

Alex Dumortier

The Long Case For Idearc

Tue, 16 Jan 2007 10:34:48 -0500
Its market capitalization is only a billion dollars, which makes it far smaller than Verizon [...]

At $31/ share, Idearc's market capitalization is $4.5 billion.