TGordoB

Market Update, Friday Night Edition: Pondering the Data

I think your understanding of the birth/death model might not be exactly correct. My understanding is that it's a statistical assumption that job losses from businesses that go out of business will be replaced by a certain percentage of new business. My guess is the model assumes a certain level of "replacement" business related specifically to the businesses that die. If my assumption is right, that number suspect because it's not difficult to imagine that dead businesses aren't getting replaced right now in the current environment.