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  • Apple And Wearable Devices: Moving From A Want To A Need By 2020 [View article]

    While I understood the risk involved with GTAT, the small portion of our portfolio that we invested was lost and there is always pain in that experience. It would appear that others had information on the opportunity and activity as well but, as often is the case, it was incomplete. Over the years, investing has taught me that nothing, not a single investment, is a 100% probability. Too often, even sure things, are affected by macro events such as a black swan that can completely swamp your comfortable boat.

    In one class, we used probability trees and this concept has really helped my investing. I'm pleased if our investments are correct 80% of the time since a tree shows how difficult such a probability is to obtain. Thanks for taking the time to respond over a painful and likely somewhat embarrassing event. A comment the other day that comes to mind, "Never underestimate the human capacity for self-delusion," is one I'm going to remember and repeat often to myself.
    Apr 14, 2015. 07:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Wearable Devices: Moving From A Want To A Need By 2020 [View article]
    Smartphones serve a unique purpose in our daily lives, as unique as the individual. Don't Facebook much? I know a large number of people that do. Use your phone or pad for a music recording studio? Again, artists around the world find it productive and useful. And the list of apps goes on and validates you are a poor sample on which to base market projections.

    Qualifying markets based on such a limited sample seems myopic at best.
    Apr 9, 2015. 08:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating My Decision To Invest In UPS [View article]
    I would have left out the "probably." Also, the prices UPS pays for fuel in bulk are quite different than retail consumer.

    One thing absent in the comments here are the investments UPS made in distribution to save fuel costs. This was mentioned in the earnings call as an expense, along with seasonal hiring, and partial cause for the poor Christmas quarter. In our winter home, deliveries were handled for the first time by golf cart out of a local storage module, rather than the usual package truck, to meet seasonal demand while saving fuel. In European towns, alternate vehicles like this are common.

    Our son is a diesel mechanic with UPS and very familiar with the delivery vehicles. They are finding alternates, including natural gas powered vehicles, at an aggressive rate. Meanwhile, USPS has picked up some of the deliveries to our home. They are always scheduled on a Sunday and very low cost. In the genius of USPS logic, low prices, low route densities and most likely high labor rates for Sunday delivery by a union worker makes good business sense. This sort of competition should ensure a bright future for UPS!
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective [View article]

    Thought Toasty had a few good points in his comment. Your decision to use sarcasm to ignore, and even demean his ideas, would appear ill advised.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:06 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Insane Apple Advantage Revisited [View article]
    Paulo won't reply to the supply/demand logic. You've hit the nail spot on. Combine that with the new phones desirable features/user benefits and you can see why there is more supply of the older units than demand. Econ 101.
    Mar 19, 2015. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Insane Apple Advantage Revisited [View article]

    Where is the rationale for your comment? If new buyers are opting for the iPhone6, competitive buyers switching to the iPhone 6 and existing iPhone buyers opting for the iPhone6 as I suggested, why would future quarters be misses? I suggest the exact opposite would be true in my comment and that the market for older units is a function of high supply/low demand and confirmation of iPhone6 success rather than an overall Apple weakness as suggested by Paulo.
    Mar 19, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Insane Apple Advantage Revisited [View article]

    Rose, your explanation is an obvious component, as is simple supply/demand. The iPhone 6 has unique desirable features and benefits, such as APPL pay and large display, which are driving the buyer towards the new phone. This not only drives new product sales but after upgrade, puts a high number of older models on the market for resale. Thus, it appears to be a consequence of success, not an indicator of weakness.

    Thanks Paulo for your article. Stir up those BBRY folks. Heard they miss you (tongue in cheek). They are a wild crowd.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    MB's bar chart appears deceptive since his singular focus on market share, ignoring the growth of market size, would lead one to believe Apple is rapidly shrinking. Of course, the text ahead of the graphics state that Apple had a blowout intro on the iPhone 6 and grew rapidly. Perhaps MB failed to read or comprehend the text. This infatuation and obsession with market share is now approaching it's second year and has proved to be an extremely poor proxy for Apple's future performance.

    Elsewhere, MB has predicted a solid performance from BBRY, the day before Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares for an opinion 180 degrees out of phase with MB.

    Finally, the supposition that iPhone users would flock to the new Samsung would appear ill-informed since there is little discussion of the challenges in the switch or of the personal benefits they would realize or most likely lose.
    Mar 17, 2015. 09:12 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch, MacBook, PC Industry Challenges (Podcast) [View article]
    Comment section today = People that don't have one, or don't want one, positing about a future they can't imagine and on which they have zero data.
    Mar 15, 2015. 10:15 AM | 42 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Age Of Radio Bedevils PCs And Tablets Alike [View article]
    "The big, untold story in desktop computing is that the upgrade for Windows 7 is simply to buy a Mac."

    Well put Dana and describes our recent decision to dump MSFT for Macs after decades of growing around MSFT and Office. Corporate two year upgrade cycles, combined with aggressive purchasing tactics, have led manufacturers to compromise on quality to remain solvent. Corporate buyers think that they are driving the manufacturers price down successfully. Their real success is acquiring poorly engineered products designed for quick obsolescence.

    I made the transition to APPL with great skepticism since I had grown to believe choosing a personal computer meant simply picking the best of a bad lot and always suffering with MSFT's short comings. Choosing APPL could have meant the same results with many new commands and features to learn, analogous to golfing left-handed or learning Russian.

    Fortunately, the use of a borrowed MacBook Air quickly convinced me and I couldn't be more pleased with the transition, the Mac's features and the amazing interconnectivity and reliability of all thing Apple. It appears I have upgraded and may have succeeded in upgrading for the last time.
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bet Is That Microsoft Will Outperform Apple In 2015 [View article]
    I just bought an hp 12c in the App Store. Works great!
    Jan 13, 2015. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: A Classic Turnaround Failure Continues [View article]

    I've used iPhones for years and never had battery life issues. My 5s goes days without a recharge. Michael appears to get most of his info selectively from half-baked blog posts rather than actual iPhone experience. And, yes, it does appear his claims of Apple' demise ever since it hit $395 were preposterously inerrant.
    Dec 31, 2014. 11:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Post An Astounding Q1, But It Might Be A Hard Act To Follow [View article]
    Use of GT Advanced as a supplier is a poor and very selective use of the term. GT Advanced's ability to supply a sapphire screen for the iPhone was merely hubris and ended when they couldn't supply anything but bad sapphire boules. You can't be listed as an Apple "supplier" if you were incapable of supplying anything but defective raw material. MB needs to read more and all the info is readily available on SA.
    Dec 30, 2014. 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Own A Tesla Model S, Just Don't Dent It! [View article]
    Obviously you never owned or used an iPhone which is unique to Apple. There are eight users in our family across multiple Apple models for six years, some still in use, and not one failure among them.

    Perhaps you were referring to another brand's "smartphone" quality and using the Iphone label generically?
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Hate Apple [View article]
    "(for example BBRY wants to buy your old/new iPhone if you switch to theirs.)."

    Thanks for the chuckle. First, make sure BBRY pays you in cash, not a check!

    Then throw away iTunes, many of your apps, interoperability with your your iPad and Mac, ditch FaceTime and iCloud. Port your contacts and calendar. Ditch AirPlay on your TV and then after spending all that time and effort migrating sit back and ask yourself why after your third reboot and reload.
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment