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GotLife

GotLife
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  • Markets might by signalling that Spring is coming, says Martin Taylor in the FT, but the similarities to the 1930s - "a time of persistent false dawns" - are "multiplying ominously." The "shockwaves of the crash" are touching more and more people, and the debate is once again between austerity and the need to seek full employment.  [View news story]
    "and the debate is once again between austerity and the need to seek full employment."

    In a normal economic cycle the Fed interest rate moves can effect employment. In a profound financial crisis, many consumers doubt that the cure for a snake bit economy is more credit venom.

    I could share some interesting credit tales as well. But suffice it to say in 2002 when I took an early retirement, and had no current income, I easily doubled my outstanding mortgage debt. Last year, with a credit rating over 780, a woman tried to get us a little boat loan and we were refused by two banks. I kept telling her, "That's okay, I'll just write a check," but she was very attractive and I didn't mind going back to talk with her. :) A third bank agreed to the loan. Go Whaler!
    Feb 12 07:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Confirms Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    They tax all distributions John. You'd probably only have a mere trillion left!
    Feb 10 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Confirms Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    Biden is rarely right, only occasionally lucky.

    GWB had a great quote on Joe. “If bu))s___ was currency,” he said straight-faced, “Joe Biden would be a billionaire.”
    Feb 10 08:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Confirms Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    Hong Kong or mainland?
    Feb 10 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Confirms Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    A good friend of mine also described the power of the police that come on an "inspection" and never leave. Her father was eventually taken and never returned. While probably the brightest person I have ever met, she was terrified while living in the US to ever call on a policeman for help or contact a politician.
    Feb 10 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Confirms Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    Russians are not workaholics...

    To complete your sentence,

    Russians are not workaholics but alcoholics.
    Feb 10 07:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio Fundamentals (Part 3) [View article]
    While most of my trades occur in my Iras, I do trades occasionally in our joint account. Since I do the taxes, and also hate the detail involved, I use TurboTax. It allows a direct download from Fidelity and other brokerage firms of all your 1099s and fills out the short and long term forms, including any loss carryovers from prior years once you have the loss established.
    Feb 10 06:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio Fundamentals (Part 3) [View article]
    Misunderstood your post. All my Puts are in an IRA and therefore require cash to cover a Put purchase. If you were to limit order an acquisition you would need the same, cash to cover the order.

    Naked Puts on margin is not what I do or would recommend.
    Feb 7 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio Fundamentals (Part 3) [View article]
    I track ex div dates closely and seldom do short term covered calls until a few weeks before x date. This has prevented a recurrence of similar events that also happened to me early on.
    Feb 7 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio Fundamentals (Part 3) [View article]
    I started this a couple of years ago, slowly at first. In 2011 it returned 11% on similar blue chips with about 3% from dividends and the rest from covered calls and puts. I got a little more aggressive in 2012 and returned 15% with 4.8% from trades, 2.6% div and 7.6% from options. The trades were from shares being called away.

    All of this is inside an IRA and my cost per trade is very low. Another advantage I realize was that seldom was all my money invested. Right now for example I am about 80% cash. It does take time and discipline but for me it is fun and profitable.
    Feb 7 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Portfolio Fundamentals (Part 3) [View article]
    Disagree if you use short term puts to acquire stock. Let's say I target JNJ for $65 and receive a .50 premium. If it reaches my target price of $65 I received a commission on my purchase. With a limit order of $65 you receive nothing and are still exposed to downward movement in price.

    With the type of stocks you are recommending, excepting NLY, drastic price movements are rare and usually recovered anyway because of the yield and size. Writing long term puts in technology firms is a whole different ball of wax.

    I seldom acquire anything anymore unless it is through a Put.
    Feb 7 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Don't Matter: Inflation Expectations Suggest Higher Highs To Come [View article]
    Thanks Michael. Didn't mean that "flag." Merely looking at past movements it seemed early to spot a confirmation or continuation of any trend. But beyond 200, 50 and 20 moving averages data point I don't trade on technicals but rather fundamentals.
    Feb 6 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Selling My Target Date Funds [View article]
    Ouch. Not to add insult to injury but didn't your representative also tell you this works over a thirty year period so you have to hold on to 2038 to find out they were right all along?

    Seriously, sounds like you made the right call by getting out. I have often thought they were engineered for improved performance for investors at or below the median, not for those above the median and definitely not for the outliers. Sounds like they are not for anybody...
    Feb 6 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Don't Matter: Inflation Expectations Suggest Higher Highs To Come [View article]
    "We could even see inflation with a 7.5% unemployment rate, which I fully expect by the time Obama is re-elected. Either way, we both agree reflation will be good for risk assets this year and 40% returns are indeed possible."

    Don't disagree but without assigned probabilities, do these predictions have value? For example, Intrade has Obama reelection at 57%. Are you saying 100%? 40% returns are possible. Does "possible" equal 10%, 50% or 100%?

    One thing I do disagree on is 2012 looking like 1999. As I recall 99, we were awash in easy leverage, from venture capital, to subprime auto and home, and in government spending. Seems very different going forward. More like 2001?
    Feb 6 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Don't Matter: Inflation Expectations Suggest Higher Highs To Come [View article]
    Agree. Saw an interesting piece on new car sales indicating that it is the result of banks lending subprime again. Is someone backstopping these loans? Fed? Automakers? If they start to go bad again ...

    Since we are now many months from the end of our recession, according to many economists, are winding down war spending and are leveraged beyond imagination at zero interest, why would the next move in the economy be up rather than down? Seems like the "recovery", weak as it is, is getting rather long-in-the-tooth.

    Finally, Michael, if you are still perusing this page, the area on the right looks like other periods where there was a diversion and then a sharp move down. Maybe I am thick headed but it seems based on the period of the move it should flag a downward move rather than long upward trend?
    Feb 6 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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