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  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    If you click on the Fiksu link,

    you'll see Blair worked hard to keep the actual number of ios8 downloads off the screen capture he presented. The screen as of this moment shows, "Total iOS 8 in-app events tracked since launch: 823,079,757." Looks like it will easily surpass 1 Billion in a few days.

    Also, the 6 adoption rate is greater than the 5, 5C and 5S combined! Incomprehensible how the launch number was deleted or the adoption rate was ignored. Of course, this shows saturation is no where near occurrence but merely a figment of an overactive imagination.
    Oct 5, 2014. 03:31 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    Shades of the VCR market. Somehow, MB is viewing the smartphone market with VCR and/or flip phone glasses. Comments such as the smartphone market is saturated indicate users will never need to upgrade their VCR again.

    A "glass-half-full" observer from the computer field would say the saturation provides an excellent opportunity to enhance Apps that will farm sizable and continuous upgrades. But Blair has zero experience in consumer or high tech marketing so all the effort to teach the old dog a new trick is likely to fail.

    Oct 5, 2014. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    Thanks for posting support of Michael. Since his Apple recommendations have an amazing 25% accuracy, while a coin flip would maintain 50%, I have stridently avoided his recommendations. Based on your support for a 25% predictive accuracy, I can now avoid yours as well if you believe this to be a goal to aim for with "resiliency."
    Oct 5, 2014. 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    "Apple threw everything they had into the iPhone 6 and in my opinion not only did they fall short but also they have very little else to offer."

    Since Michael Blair has been negative on Apple since May of 2013, with 63 verifiable articles on SA, a period in which Apple surged from 385 to over $700 pre split, how much value should an Apple investor place in such an opinion? Are contrarians, against increasing equity prices or portfolios?

    With little experience in either Apple or Samsung products, and zero on the two products he attempts to compare, Blair forages websites to validate his confirmation bias ignoring the many others that present a strong opposing view or facts that challenge his preconceived notions. All things considered, the probability of his being right seem less than 50/50.
    Oct 5, 2014. 01:47 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Apple Has Samsung Beat On The High End [View article]

    I have over 25 years experience with Microsoft products. In the last several years we have gradually shifted over to Apple first through phones, followed by TV, router, pad and finally, a MacAir.

    This AM, I needed to do something quickly on my two Windows laptops. What a pain and grim reminder of all things Windows. I can't even envision using Windows on a phone. Think I would rather stick an icepick in my ear.

    I do understand where you're coming from as I resisted Apple partly out of loyalty, frugality and the view that if Apple was better, it was probably just the best of a bad lot. You should really check Apple out. I believe true high quality technology makes itself invisible, not an obstacle. Of course, if your occupation is to help others around those obstacles I can see a reason not to switch. You have job security with Windows.

    Personally, I am going to dump my two Windows boat anchors soon. Using my MacAir has been such a freeing experience. No more widows purgatory and the too often computer rathole to climb down and somehow emerge unscathed.
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:21 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do BlackBerry's Q2 Earnings Prove Turnaround Is Successful? (Spoiler Alert: No) [View article]
    "Here's some comments"

    "That's a Blackberry, I thought they went out of business"

    This is very large problem for BBRY. Consumers despise being caught with the next defunct electronic device, especially from a defunct company. Who wants a future Zenith TV or Gateway computer in their home?
    Oct 2, 2014. 07:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Pay Is Likely To Succeed, And Lessons From PayPal [View article]
    And Eastman Kodak, Polaroid, DEC, RIMM, Studebaker, Gateway, etc. Just a few years ago, with the death of Jobs, WS thought  would join that list. So far they have escaped but may not be so lucky post Cook and Ive. Until then, rock on!
    Oct 1, 2014. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Incredible Journey - Apple's Blowout Launch [View article]
    Read, "Six Thinking Hats" by Edward Debono. The black hat view must be complimented by Optimism, Emotionalism, Analytics, Creativity and the Blue Hat of evaluation. Each must be done, and done well, for the analysis to be of value.

    If that is the intent of your statement, I would agree. But just reading a counter-argument, or one of little value like M Blair's, could cause an investor to err greatly. In fact, since M Blair began his serial of 62 articles in May of 2013, the stock has run from 395 to 700, pre split. In this case, which may prove an exception to your rule, it would have been very wise to ignore MB's stream of consciousness.

    But I suspect your assumption is that a wise, seasoned investor would have used more of a Debono approach in their thinking when you made that statement. Would that it were so. But there are legions of investors still, many of them on SA, either starting out or lacking Debono's approach that may have been financially abused by MB articles. I suspect he cares little or the stream would have stopped after the first several misstatements and wrong calls.

    Thanks for your article by the way. I think you are insightful enough to write your own analysis rather just leverage off MBs. In fact, that name in the headline probably cost you quite a few views.
    Oct 1, 2014. 09:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill And Chuck's Incredible Journey - Apple's Blowout Launch Weekend Revisited [View article]
    If you start at May 2013, with his first Apple article posting, the total number of Apple articles by Blair is an incredible 62! All that while missing a stock run from 385 to 700/share.

    You must ask yourself after the author's reading of perhaps 6200 educated responses to his articles, how can anyone be that incorrect in forecasting unless it is intentional?

    I am loathe to contribute any more than $.02 to such shallow and typically indefensible tripe so this is my last comment and/or click.
    Oct 1, 2014. 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Beats By $0.14, Cash Burn Negligible; Will Short Covering Ensue? [View article]
    In your last article one of the red flags you charted and highlighted was the loss in services revenue. You report that it declined 19% sequentially. Does that raise the red flag higher?
    Sep 28, 2014. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Red Flags To Look For On Friday [View article]

    Most turnarounds and many weak software companies can hang around on services revenue from installed base. The Friday announcement indicated services revenue was down 19% sequentially. This is not a 3-point turn, rather acceleration in reverse. My guess? The last quarter was packed and this quarter reflects those billings. If not, driving in reverse, accelerating towards the wall in the rear view mirror is a bad strategy. The author indicated it was a red flag. I agree and think it my have just became a bigger one.
    Sep 28, 2014. 07:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Red Flags To Look For On Friday [View article]

    "You know how to drink or steering anything moving?"

    hiccup much?
    Sep 28, 2014. 07:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross PIMCO Exit Creates Unprecedented Value In CEFs [View article]
    How I long for 15.25!

    Although not if inflation runs 18.25.
    Sep 27, 2014. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross PIMCO Exit Creates Unprecedented Value In CEFs [View article]
    MC and Longfellow.

    Reeling from cognitive dissonance.

    Thanks for the article Morgan.
    Sep 27, 2014. 02:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rational Look At Stock Market Risk [View article]
    Thanks for the reply Bart. In 2002, I changed companies and rolled over a large DPS account, that had been managed entirely by the corporation, into an IRA. Partially out of uncertainly in equities, 9/11/01, and time constraints, I rolled everything into bond funds for a year. Fortunate for me, when I got around to reallocating, the funds had picked up 11% return and equities began to pick up once again. This appeared to be a normal cycle but my timing was more providence than intellect.

    2008-2009 was different, however. As equities collapsed, for a time, so did commodities, bonds and precious metals. Even large managed funds were upset by the phenomena as the biggest worry was a governments default or corporate collapse.

    That is why I suggested to look at that cycle since it more closely paralleled your default scenario. If that was a fear in the eyes of many investors, and perhaps it was only retail investors, I was confused why they would flip into bonds, cash or CDs when a default would render interest rates irrelevant. (See Argentina)

    Others invested in a shelter, a years supply of food and water and weapons. Thankfully they weren't proved right. Perhaps Argentina could provide some answers but their influence on the global economy is far different than a US default or devaluation. And, seriously, what is the alternative beside the US? A basket of currencies? If no one can trust the US financial system, is there really an alternative?

    I am not saying my move into equities in 2009 is repeatable in a devaluation or default scenario. But if currency value doesn't survive, physical assets have a way over time of providing a store of value that the full faith and credit of a government doesn't. And, in our coporate-tocracy they seem to garner more attention than any other entity save banks.
    Sep 27, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment