NY Operator

Global Farmland Disappearing at an Alarming Rate

christletoe: Could you explain more about "Massive new acreage in southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay?" I have been following agriculture recently and am not familiar with this. I would like to learn more about new farmland coming on line.


On Jun 19 08:30 AM chistletoe wrote:

> disclaimer -- I am long DBA
>
> Extrapolating global warming is extremely questionable statistical
> technique. In fact, for the past 18 months, due to an unexplainable
> weakening of the sun's output as well as unknown changes in deep
> ocean currents (we are too cheap to pay to collect the inforrmation),
> the earth has actually been cooling.
> Of course, cooling will have a much more dramatic impact
> on agriculture than warming.
>
> Extrapolating population gains and food production losses at the
> same time is more than silly and needs no comment.
>
> Massive new acreage in southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay
> being applied to grain production, also needs to be taken into account
> in your thinking.
>
> Forecasting the future takes some imagination and reasoning --<br/>merely
> extending current trends is extremely lazy and not likely to be worth
> the trouble.
>
> -chiz

Global Farmland Disappearing at an Alarming Rate

Whatever you view is on "global warming" or "climate change," it is a fact that the temperature is slowly rising. The earth goes through temperature cycles and the earth is coming out of an ice age.

There will be substantial declines to crop yields over time, which is going to limit the world's ability to feed itself. Compare the yields in Iowa to Mexico. If yields transition to "Mexico" levels, there will not be much food to go around.

Lester Brown on the Coming Food Crisis (Again)

You are the second person to highlight Farmland Forecast blog. I am a new fan.

I just saw the Monsanto ad in the WSJ the other day. Has anyone seen the documentary "Future of Food." Kind of scary. I think you can find it on Hulu.


On May 20 09:19 AM InflationHedge wrote:

> Lester Brown is right this time. The food crisis might not develop
> tomorrow, but we are starting to see the signs of a shortage beginning.
> China and South Korea have been purchasing large amounts of farmland
> across the globe to to export the grains back to their people.<br/>
>
> A recent Monsanto advertisement highlighted the growing need for
> food. Read more here: farmlandforecast.colvi...

Julian Robertson Bets the Farm on Inflation

Another way is to invest in farmland:

farmlandforecast.colvi...

How Will Ethanol Biofuels and Feed Grain Production Perform Through 2010?

I agree that there is going to be significant pressure on the world's grain supplies over the next few years. I read the other day the US corn supply is down to just over a month. If you like ethanol or not, it is here to stay and will consume 30% of the US corn production.

Another member linked to this blog in another message. There is an interesting article on how to make money of the increased demands for grain:

farmlandforecast.colvi...

Commodities: A Wise Long Term Investment

Great link. The author of the blog should post on Seeking Alpha. Best blog I have seen in a long time.


On May 19 11:46 AM AgHedge wrote:

> Great article! I agree with a lot of the points up there. Commodities
> are a great investment and I think more specifically agriculture.
> The world is changing and ag could see a lot of benefits. People
> have to eat.
>
> Besides China needing so much fertilizer, they are renting out farmland
> in other countries to try to solve their food security dilemma. The
> Chinese diet is becoming more protein based instead of grain based.
> That being said, it takes 8-15lbs of grain to produce 1lb of meat.
> The demand for ag &amp; other commodities will be growing exponentially.
>
>
> This blog talks a lot about these issues as well. farmlandforecast.colvi.../
> Great article though!