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    <title>Difu Wu's Comments</title>
    <description>Difu Wu's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com</description>
    <link>http://seekingalpha.com/user/427205/comments</link>
    <item>
      <title>10 Stocks For 2013</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1079091/comments?source=feed#comment-15116901</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">15116901</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Thanks for your comment, kolpin. Some picks from 2012 did not make it onto my 2013 list because they appear more fully valued now, such as HRS and HAS you cited, and are less attractive than my new picks for 2013. However, as I emphasize in this article, I believe all my 2012 picks are still suitable for holding and my 2013 recommendations are for new money only. If there is no new money, I would just recommend holding onto the old stock picks because of taxes and commissions. After paying 15% capital gains tax, reinvestment into a new pick would have to outperform the old by a huge margin just to break even (it is a good exercise to do the math yourself to make sure you understand this critical point), which is why I recommend a buy and hold strategy.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sun, 17 Feb 2013 11:22:06 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Thanks for your comment, kolpin. Some picks from 2012 did not make it onto my 2013 list because they appear more fully valued now, such as HRS and HAS you cited, and are less attractive than my new picks for 2013. However, as I emphasize in this article, I believe all my 2012 picks are still suitable for holding and my 2013 recommendations are for new money only. If there is no new money, I would just recommend holding onto the old stock picks because of taxes and commissions. After paying 15% capital gains tax, reinvestment into a new pick would have to outperform the old by a huge margin just to break even (it is a good exercise to do the math yourself to make sure you understand this critical point), which is why I recommend a buy and hold strategy.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>10 Stocks For 2013</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1079091/comments?source=feed#comment-13539521</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">13539521</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Cheese Head: Exactly, to calculate normalized PE, I simply divide the current price by the median EPS over the past 10 years.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2013 11:01:17 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Cheese Head: Exactly, to calculate normalized PE, I simply divide the current price by the median EPS over the past 10 years.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-13092641</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">13092641</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Jack Rice: If Warren Buffett, with most of his wealth in Berkshire stock that he has held for decades, is &quot;not making money&quot;, I am quite content &quot;not making money&quot; also. ]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sat, 29 Dec 2012 09:44:10 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Jack Rice: If Warren Buffett, with most of his wealth in Berkshire stock that he has held for decades, is &quot;not making money&quot;, I am quite content &quot;not making money&quot; also. ]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-13034171</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">13034171</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[@giorgiolb: True, you can't spend paper gains. When investing in stocks for the long term, however, growth is far more important than income, and unrealized gains more efficient as they compound without taxes taking a huge bite out of them.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 27 Dec 2012 13:59:26 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[@giorgiolb: True, you can't spend paper gains. When investing in stocks for the long term, however, growth is far more important than income, and unrealized gains more efficient as they compound without taxes taking a huge bite out of them.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-13030381</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">13030381</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[@Jack Rice: By your reckoning, Warren Buffett is not so much so a great investor after all, but merely someone good at keeping scores, for much of his gains remain unrealized in long term holdings such as Coca Cola and Washington Post. What are you going to tell me next? That losses don't count unless you realize them?? ]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 27 Dec 2012 12:15:11 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[@Jack Rice: By your reckoning, Warren Buffett is not so much so a great investor after all, but merely someone good at keeping scores, for much of his gains remain unrealized in long term holdings such as Coca Cola and Washington Post. What are you going to tell me next? That losses don't count unless you realize them?? ]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>10 Stocks For 2013</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1079091/comments?source=feed#comment-12943111</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12943111</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[@J Hannahs: I recommended EXC because it appeared to have a competitive advantage, with a solid track record of above average returns, and selling at very low valuations both in its history and compared to its peers. Value stocks can take many years to bounce back and no one can predict when that will happen. When it happens though, it can bounce back quite unexpectedly and suddenly. You have to be in it to win it.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 24 Dec 2012 10:07:23 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[@J Hannahs: I recommended EXC because it appeared to have a competitive advantage, with a solid track record of above average returns, and selling at very low valuations both in its history and compared to its peers. Value stocks can take many years to bounce back and no one can predict when that will happen. When it happens though, it can bounce back quite unexpectedly and suddenly. You have to be in it to win it.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>10 Stocks For 2013</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1079091/comments?source=feed#comment-12942901</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12942901</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[@chazsf: Normalized PE has been shown to be a much better indicator of value and future return than current PE (look up Robert Shiller's research for example). Yes, companies that grew earnings substantially for the past 10 yrs would have high normalized PE, but I would argue that it is NOT artificially inflated, but these companies are likely to revert to the mean rather than continue to sustain the high growth rate. So I would not try to adjust PE for companies with high past rates of growth, since future growth is unpredictable and likely to revert to the mean, especially for tech stocks. As Graham and Dodd said, investors who consistently pay more than 16 times normalized earnings will very often find themselves with disappointing results. While one may expect higher growth for companies with higher PE, and at times be very well rewarded, such expectations constitute speculation, not investment.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 24 Dec 2012 10:02:41 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[@chazsf: Normalized PE has been shown to be a much better indicator of value and future return than current PE (look up Robert Shiller's research for example). Yes, companies that grew earnings substantially for the past 10 yrs would have high normalized PE, but I would argue that it is NOT artificially inflated, but these companies are likely to revert to the mean rather than continue to sustain the high growth rate. So I would not try to adjust PE for companies with high past rates of growth, since future growth is unpredictable and likely to revert to the mean, especially for tech stocks. As Graham and Dodd said, investors who consistently pay more than 16 times normalized earnings will very often find themselves with disappointing results. While one may expect higher growth for companies with higher PE, and at times be very well rewarded, such expectations constitute speculation, not investment.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12890861</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12890861</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[joe kelly: you misunderstood my article. There is a difference between tax efficiency and &quot;not making money&quot; as you charged. Berkshire Hathaway pays no dividend, and people who invested in the company fifty years ago and never sold have yet to pay any tax on it. Would you say it is not making any money?]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sat, 22 Dec 2012 09:47:48 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[joe kelly: you misunderstood my article. There is a difference between tax efficiency and &quot;not making money&quot; as you charged. Berkshire Hathaway pays no dividend, and people who invested in the company fifty years ago and never sold have yet to pay any tax on it. Would you say it is not making any money?]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12827871</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12827871</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[@giorgiolb: Yes, can-down-the-road kicking, but &quot;crisis&quot; resolved nonetheless!! The market doesn't care. I suppose you would not care about an apocalyse that will take place in 1 billion years from today, either, would you?]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 20 Dec 2012 13:53:26 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[@giorgiolb: Yes, can-down-the-road kicking, but &quot;crisis&quot; resolved nonetheless!! The market doesn't care. I suppose you would not care about an apocalyse that will take place in 1 billion years from today, either, would you?]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12827681</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12827681</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[@BitterrottBrown: Thanks for your comment and adding insight to this article. Yes, mREITs are already taxed as ordinary income, but they would still be affected when the top income tax rate goes from 35% to 39.5%. I would recommend holding REITs only in tax sheltered accounts such as IRAs.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 20 Dec 2012 13:50:26 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[@BitterrottBrown: Thanks for your comment and adding insight to this article. Yes, mREITs are already taxed as ordinary income, but they would still be affected when the top income tax rate goes from 35% to 39.5%. I would recommend holding REITs only in tax sheltered accounts such as IRAs.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12815661</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12815661</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Kyle: please read my article again. I hope you understand the effects of 39.5% tax on dividends and that higher yielders are more risky. <br/><br/>GM is a speculative cyclical stock. ]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 20 Dec 2012 10:19:51 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Kyle: please read my article again. I hope you understand the effects of 39.5% tax on dividends and that higher yielders are more risky. <br/><br/>GM is a speculative cyclical stock. ]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12815431</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12815431</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[thank you Pierre ]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 20 Dec 2012 10:16:17 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[thank you Pierre ]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12815381</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12815381</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Please do your due diligence before investing. Most self-repecting books on investing would tell you how to identify high quality stocks. Security Analysis, by Graham and Dodd and Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, by Fisher are good ones to start. I also touched a bit on how to screen for high quality stocks here: <a rel='nofollow' target='_blank' href='http://seekingalpha.com/a/6vsi'>http://seekingalpha.co...</a>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 20 Dec 2012 10:15:47 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Please do your due diligence before investing. Most self-repecting books on investing would tell you how to identify high quality stocks. Security Analysis, by Graham and Dodd and Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, by Fisher are good ones to start. I also touched a bit on how to screen for high quality stocks here: <a rel='nofollow' target='_blank' href='http://seekingalpha.com/a/6vsi'>http://seekingalpha.co...</a>]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12815091</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12815091</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[@joeytheghost: If you really think the fiscal cliff will not be resolved, you have no knowledge of history at all.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 20 Dec 2012 10:10:37 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[@joeytheghost: If you really think the fiscal cliff will not be resolved, you have no knowledge of history at all.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12814951</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12814951</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Not a joke at all. CR Bard has maintained a low dividend payout policy, choosing instead to deploy most of its earnings into growth of the company, which has served shareowners very well through the years.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 20 Dec 2012 10:07:54 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Not a joke at all. CR Bard has maintained a low dividend payout policy, choosing instead to deploy most of its earnings into growth of the company, which has served shareowners very well through the years.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Positioning For The Fiscal Cliff</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/1074151/comments?source=feed#comment-12814761</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">12814761</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[The problem is that high yielding stocks, such as REITs, utility, telecom, and tobacco stocks, are actually expensive right now, compared to low yield growth stocks. Have fun paying your higher taxes on dividends. As for me, I'd rather put my money in stocks of companies that redeploy earnings into more growth and return more cash via share buybacks than paying out dividends that gets doubly taxed.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 20 Dec 2012 10:05:30 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[The problem is that high yielding stocks, such as REITs, utility, telecom, and tobacco stocks, are actually expensive right now, compared to low yield growth stocks. Have fun paying your higher taxes on dividends. As for me, I'd rather put my money in stocks of companies that redeploy earnings into more growth and return more cash via share buybacks than paying out dividends that gets doubly taxed.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Lifecycle Investing: Good In Theory, Bad In Practice</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/857601/comments?source=feed#comment-9323041</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">9323041</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Thanks again for your thoughtful comment. I admit that I have a bias to sacrifice present consumption for future consumption, largely due to uncertainty involved. I did not even consider social security or pension in my example, so I can shoot for a bigger nest egg for greater margin of safety (just in case I don't get to have my social security or pension in the future).<br/><br/>Medical costs are frighteningly high. For the reasons you gave, I would strongly favor keeping the nest egg and not buying an annuity. I had no idea insurance cost so much. The high costs of insurance is another reason to save for a bigger nest egg so we don't have to buy that expensive insurance. <br/><br/>On a separate note, there are other ways to prevent a catastrophic medical costs and ending up in that low quality nursing home. Eat healthy (lots and lots of fresh vegetables and fruits, legumes, nuts, seeds, and whole grains; and none of meat, dairy, refined flour and added oil, salt, sugar), exercise at least 30 min a day, avoid smoking, limit alcohol, and have regular screening/preventive care. Also, having a daughter or two is not a bad idea to avoid ending up in that dreadful nursing home.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 11 Sep 2012 12:54:39 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Thanks again for your thoughtful comment. I admit that I have a bias to sacrifice present consumption for future consumption, largely due to uncertainty involved. I did not even consider social security or pension in my example, so I can shoot for a bigger nest egg for greater margin of safety (just in case I don't get to have my social security or pension in the future).<br/><br/>Medical costs are frighteningly high. For the reasons you gave, I would strongly favor keeping the nest egg and not buying an annuity. I had no idea insurance cost so much. The high costs of insurance is another reason to save for a bigger nest egg so we don't have to buy that expensive insurance. <br/><br/>On a separate note, there are other ways to prevent a catastrophic medical costs and ending up in that low quality nursing home. Eat healthy (lots and lots of fresh vegetables and fruits, legumes, nuts, seeds, and whole grains; and none of meat, dairy, refined flour and added oil, salt, sugar), exercise at least 30 min a day, avoid smoking, limit alcohol, and have regular screening/preventive care. Also, having a daughter or two is not a bad idea to avoid ending up in that dreadful nursing home.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Lifecycle Investing: Good In Theory, Bad In Practice</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/857601/comments?source=feed#comment-9317391</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">9317391</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Thanks Robert for your comment! A&amp;N did talk about the effect of stability of one's income on asset allocation, but not so much on amount to save and invest. In particular, if you have a stable income as a government employee, doctor, teacher, etc, you can view your future earning potential as a giant AAA bond, and therefore need to allocate more to stocks. On the other hand, if your income is as erratic as the stock market, e.g. investment banker, your future earning potential may resemble more of a stock or a lower quality bond. As to how much to save and invest, the short answer is as much as possible. The long answer is that you would need to determine how much you need to live on in retirement (e.g. 80% of your current income), factor in a safe withdrawal rate (somewhere between 2-4%) to see how big a nest egg you'd need, adjust for inflation, and finally determine how much you need to save each year till retirement to reach that nest egg (use future value annuity with or w/o growth formula). <br/><br/>For example, say I spend about $15,000 a year now and, to be safe, I want to live on at least $30,000 a year in retirement. For an ultra conservative 2% withdrawal rate, I need to have $1,500,000 in today's dollars. Since I have another 30 years or so till retirement, I need to factor in about 3-4% inflation. We'll make it 4% to be safe. So the future value of nest egg I need is $1,500,000*(1.04)^30 = $4,865,000 by the time I retire in 30 years. If I can save and invest a set amount of money each year, increase that amount by 4% (rate of inflation), and assume that my investments return a modest 8% a year, how much do I need to save and invest? We'll use the future value annuity with growth formula to solve for A: $4,865,000 = A*[(1.08)^30-(1.04)^30... so A = $23,537 a year, or about $24,000 a year. Remember, I'd need to increase this amount each year by 4% to adjust for inflation. Now, if I don't want to adjust the amount I invest, but rather just invest the same amount each year, I would use the future value annuity without growth formula: $4,865,000 = A*[(1.08)^30-1]/(0.08), so A = $42,945, or about $43,000 a year. I used very conservative numbers in this example (the point is to make sure not to run out of money in retirement), but you can use your own numbers. Also, note that for simplicity I did not account for amount I've already saved, but you can subtract that from the present value of total nest egg you need. Hope this helps!]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 11 Sep 2012 10:58:08 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Thanks Robert for your comment! A&amp;N did talk about the effect of stability of one's income on asset allocation, but not so much on amount to save and invest. In particular, if you have a stable income as a government employee, doctor, teacher, etc, you can view your future earning potential as a giant AAA bond, and therefore need to allocate more to stocks. On the other hand, if your income is as erratic as the stock market, e.g. investment banker, your future earning potential may resemble more of a stock or a lower quality bond. As to how much to save and invest, the short answer is as much as possible. The long answer is that you would need to determine how much you need to live on in retirement (e.g. 80% of your current income), factor in a safe withdrawal rate (somewhere between 2-4%) to see how big a nest egg you'd need, adjust for inflation, and finally determine how much you need to save each year till retirement to reach that nest egg (use future value annuity with or w/o growth formula). <br/><br/>For example, say I spend about $15,000 a year now and, to be safe, I want to live on at least $30,000 a year in retirement. For an ultra conservative 2% withdrawal rate, I need to have $1,500,000 in today's dollars. Since I have another 30 years or so till retirement, I need to factor in about 3-4% inflation. We'll make it 4% to be safe. So the future value of nest egg I need is $1,500,000*(1.04)^30 = $4,865,000 by the time I retire in 30 years. If I can save and invest a set amount of money each year, increase that amount by 4% (rate of inflation), and assume that my investments return a modest 8% a year, how much do I need to save and invest? We'll use the future value annuity with growth formula to solve for A: $4,865,000 = A*[(1.08)^30-(1.04)^30... so A = $23,537 a year, or about $24,000 a year. Remember, I'd need to increase this amount each year by 4% to adjust for inflation. Now, if I don't want to adjust the amount I invest, but rather just invest the same amount each year, I would use the future value annuity without growth formula: $4,865,000 = A*[(1.08)^30-1]/(0.08), so A = $42,945, or about $43,000 a year. I used very conservative numbers in this example (the point is to make sure not to run out of money in retirement), but you can use your own numbers. Also, note that for simplicity I did not account for amount I've already saved, but you can subtract that from the present value of total nest egg you need. Hope this helps!]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Automatic Vs. Active Dividend Investing</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/852771/comments?source=feed#comment-9283751</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">9283751</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Interesting article. I have done both through the years, and am increasingly favoring automatic investment now, for several reasons. One is transaction cost. I now preferentially buy stocks automatically via no purchase fee DSPPs. BDX is actually one of my biggest holding. I regard BDX as equal in quality as JNJ or PG, and higher quality than OMI. Another reason is the difficulty in picking stocks, especially lower quality ones. A stock may seem cheap today, but may become expensive 10 or 20 years later, if the lower quality company is not allocating its resources as effectively to grow its business as the higher quality companies. A third reason is that if I don't invest automatically, I get tempted to wait for a better price to buy, and thereby miss the opportunity as the stock I'm interested in takes off. Fisher's admonition not to quibble over eighth or quarters applies here. Then there is time, as you pointed out. It must also be remembered that no stock is really &quot;under the radar&quot;, in today's increasingly efficient market. After factoring in all the costs including time spent researching stocks, transaction costs, the higher likelihood of needing to sell a lower quality stock and incur even more costs, I must seriously doubt mine or anyone else's ability to consistently find better stocks actively.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 10 Sep 2012 13:59:03 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Interesting article. I have done both through the years, and am increasingly favoring automatic investment now, for several reasons. One is transaction cost. I now preferentially buy stocks automatically via no purchase fee DSPPs. BDX is actually one of my biggest holding. I regard BDX as equal in quality as JNJ or PG, and higher quality than OMI. Another reason is the difficulty in picking stocks, especially lower quality ones. A stock may seem cheap today, but may become expensive 10 or 20 years later, if the lower quality company is not allocating its resources as effectively to grow its business as the higher quality companies. A third reason is that if I don't invest automatically, I get tempted to wait for a better price to buy, and thereby miss the opportunity as the stock I'm interested in takes off. Fisher's admonition not to quibble over eighth or quarters applies here. Then there is time, as you pointed out. It must also be remembered that no stock is really &quot;under the radar&quot;, in today's increasingly efficient market. After factoring in all the costs including time spent researching stocks, transaction costs, the higher likelihood of needing to sell a lower quality stock and incur even more costs, I must seriously doubt mine or anyone else's ability to consistently find better stocks actively.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/582661/comments?source=feed#comment-9227031</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">9227031</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[I never recommended shorting Apple or any other stock. I am saying simply avoid it, as well as any other popular stock, sector, or whatever that may be the hot can't miss investment of the day. If you want to gamble your money away, go ahead and buy Apple. That is your inalienable right. Call me crazy, but I'd rather invest my money in tried and true high quality companies with stable and predictable cash flows, such as BDX, XOM, AFL, PG, etc.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sat, 08 Sep 2012 13:52:22 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[I never recommended shorting Apple or any other stock. I am saying simply avoid it, as well as any other popular stock, sector, or whatever that may be the hot can't miss investment of the day. If you want to gamble your money away, go ahead and buy Apple. That is your inalienable right. Call me crazy, but I'd rather invest my money in tried and true high quality companies with stable and predictable cash flows, such as BDX, XOM, AFL, PG, etc.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/582661/comments?source=feed#comment-9197071</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">9197071</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Twolfe: I don't care if Apple is still going up. This is only temporary. Just look at how Cisco kept going up in 1999 and 2000 even though it was badly overvalued, and how it subsequently crashed. The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long run. Likewise, just because you bought a lottery ticket and won doesn't mean buying the lottery ticket was the right decision in the first place. Good result does not equal good process. True investors would refrain from gambling their money on a super hot stock like Apple, because they have seen this before. <br/><br/>Also, thanks for pointing out it's Keynes who said the quote I attributed to BB. I will own up to my mistake, but my point remains the same nonetheless.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 07 Sep 2012 14:28:12 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Twolfe: I don't care if Apple is still going up. This is only temporary. Just look at how Cisco kept going up in 1999 and 2000 even though it was badly overvalued, and how it subsequently crashed. The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long run. Likewise, just because you bought a lottery ticket and won doesn't mean buying the lottery ticket was the right decision in the first place. Good result does not equal good process. True investors would refrain from gambling their money on a super hot stock like Apple, because they have seen this before. <br/><br/>Also, thanks for pointing out it's Keynes who said the quote I attributed to BB. I will own up to my mistake, but my point remains the same nonetheless.]]>
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      <title>5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/582661/comments?source=feed#comment-7454401</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">7454401</guid>
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        <![CDATA[Fast grower, yes, but low PE? Definitely not. The first point I am making in this article is that Apple actually has a very high PE. You have to look at the right E. <br/><br/>Apple is 2 sigma above its peers in executive compensation. If Apple's exec comp is appropriate, then every company not named Apple must be underpaying their execs. Ha!! <br/><br/>For you only, rubicon, Bernard Barach hath also spoken thus: Apple shall crash and burn, and, in the blink of the eye, it shall suddenly come to naught. Like a thief that cometh in the night, it shall catch thee unawares, and, verily, thou shalt be poorer in spirit and in deed.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 17 Jul 2012 07:45:18 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Fast grower, yes, but low PE? Definitely not. The first point I am making in this article is that Apple actually has a very high PE. You have to look at the right E. <br/><br/>Apple is 2 sigma above its peers in executive compensation. If Apple's exec comp is appropriate, then every company not named Apple must be underpaying their execs. Ha!! <br/><br/>For you only, rubicon, Bernard Barach hath also spoken thus: Apple shall crash and burn, and, in the blink of the eye, it shall suddenly come to naught. Like a thief that cometh in the night, it shall catch thee unawares, and, verily, thou shalt be poorer in spirit and in deed.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/582661/comments?source=feed#comment-7454271</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">7454271</guid>
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        <![CDATA[Ronin: The problem is, the stock market looks forward, and sentiments and fundamentals can change very quickly. If you buy AAPL when things are looking so rosy right now, you risk getting caught off guard when the future outlook changes suddenly before you have time to react. I would be very cautious buying stocks in companies that do not have a solid record of profitability and uninterrupted dividend payments every year for at least 20 consecutive years. Any company that does not fit this description is speculative. For speculative stocks, the outlook for the company must get much better than the current outlook to make money in the stock. For AAPL, the current outlook is so good that it is hard to imagine things can get even rosier in the future. Apple has the largest market cap in the world and it is riding on the top of the world right now. How much better can things get?]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 17 Jul 2012 07:36:35 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Ronin: The problem is, the stock market looks forward, and sentiments and fundamentals can change very quickly. If you buy AAPL when things are looking so rosy right now, you risk getting caught off guard when the future outlook changes suddenly before you have time to react. I would be very cautious buying stocks in companies that do not have a solid record of profitability and uninterrupted dividend payments every year for at least 20 consecutive years. Any company that does not fit this description is speculative. For speculative stocks, the outlook for the company must get much better than the current outlook to make money in the stock. For AAPL, the current outlook is so good that it is hard to imagine things can get even rosier in the future. Apple has the largest market cap in the world and it is riding on the top of the world right now. How much better can things get?]]>
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    <item>
      <title>5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/582661/comments?source=feed#comment-7416481</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">7416481</guid>
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        <![CDATA[He would not say that. Yes, Apple could go to $1500, but that would be all the more reason to stay away from it. Apple's revenue derives from high tech products subject to rapidly changing whims. I don't see how Apple will not follow the footsteps of RIMM. There is simply no lasting moat for high technology products. Just a few years ago, Blackberry was so hot and it was going to conquer the world. Look at where it is now. Apple is now the new technology fad. Hmm, I wonder what will happen next? ]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 16 Jul 2012 07:07:46 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[He would not say that. Yes, Apple could go to $1500, but that would be all the more reason to stay away from it. Apple's revenue derives from high tech products subject to rapidly changing whims. I don't see how Apple will not follow the footsteps of RIMM. There is simply no lasting moat for high technology products. Just a few years ago, Blackberry was so hot and it was going to conquer the world. Look at where it is now. Apple is now the new technology fad. Hmm, I wonder what will happen next? ]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/582661/comments?source=feed#comment-7416381</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">7416381</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Doesn't matter who said it. My point is that Apple is a speculative stock to stay away from.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 16 Jul 2012 07:00:31 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Doesn't matter who said it. My point is that Apple is a speculative stock to stay away from.]]>
      </description>
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    <item>
      <title>General Dynamics: A Good Combination Of Value And Growth</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/658851/comments?source=feed#comment-7033361</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">7033361</guid>
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        <![CDATA[Dear dencha:<br/><br/>I would say prices in the 50s to low 60s would be good target prices to buy. A good place to start learning about researching stocks are Ben Graham's books &quot;Intelligent Investor&quot; and &quot;Security Analysis&quot;. Once you thoroughly read these two books, you should have a very good grasp on stock investing. Then read other books on investing you may find in your local library.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 03 Jul 2012 12:04:57 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Dear dencha:<br/><br/>I would say prices in the 50s to low 60s would be good target prices to buy. A good place to start learning about researching stocks are Ben Graham's books &quot;Intelligent Investor&quot; and &quot;Security Analysis&quot;. Once you thoroughly read these two books, you should have a very good grasp on stock investing. Then read other books on investing you may find in your local library.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>General Dynamics: A Good Combination Of Value And Growth</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/658851/comments?source=feed#comment-6420041</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">6420041</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Thanks for your comment. Politicians are no doubt fickle, but to compromise the military would probably be too risky a position to take for anyone from any major party. If I were to err, I would err on the side of increased government spending over the long term.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 14 Jun 2012 11:33:09 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Thanks for your comment. Politicians are no doubt fickle, but to compromise the military would probably be too risky a position to take for anyone from any major party. If I were to err, I would err on the side of increased government spending over the long term.]]>
      </description>
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    <item>
      <title>General Dynamics: A Good Combination Of Value And Growth</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/658851/comments?source=feed#comment-6419811</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">6419811</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[What is important here is consistent sustainable growth. Double digit growth is actually pretty good. Any growth above 20% is probably unsustainable.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 14 Jun 2012 11:27:33 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[What is important here is consistent sustainable growth. Double digit growth is actually pretty good. Any growth above 20% is probably unsustainable.]]>
      </description>
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    <item>
      <title>AstraZeneca Is Undervalued</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/579001/comments?source=feed#comment-6038801</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">6038801</guid>
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        <![CDATA[The most recent balance sheet (from 3/31/12) shows 10 B cash and 7 B long term debt. Although 7 B is a large amount in absolute term, it is only 34% of the company's total equity of 22 B and 14% of its total market capitalization of 51 B.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sat, 02 Jun 2012 08:03:33 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[The most recent balance sheet (from 3/31/12) shows 10 B cash and 7 B long term debt. Although 7 B is a large amount in absolute term, it is only 34% of the company's total equity of 22 B and 14% of its total market capitalization of 51 B.]]>
      </description>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/article/582661/comments?source=feed#comment-5972111</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">5972111</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[By the very nature of Apple's business, it cannot be an investment, but is only a bet, or speculation. Only companies with predictable business models, such as Procter &amp; Gamble and Becton Dickinson, can be considered investments. Apple's current revenues rely entirely on ephemeral fads that strike the public's fancy at the present moment, with no guarantee whatsoever for future profitability. The fact that its products are so hot and in style right now means that it is a bad bet going forward because it is priced for perfection. At Apple's current stock price, even horses and lottery tickets or casinos are better bets. Regards -DW]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 31 May 2012 11:01:32 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[By the very nature of Apple's business, it cannot be an investment, but is only a bet, or speculation. Only companies with predictable business models, such as Procter &amp; Gamble and Becton Dickinson, can be considered investments. Apple's current revenues rely entirely on ephemeral fads that strike the public's fancy at the present moment, with no guarantee whatsoever for future profitability. The fact that its products are so hot and in style right now means that it is a bad bet going forward because it is priced for perfection. At Apple's current stock price, even horses and lottery tickets or casinos are better bets. Regards -DW]]>
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