President Obama will go into budget negotiations with Congressional leaders on Friday calling for a $1.6T increase in tax revenues over 10 years, double the $800B discussed during debt-ceiling talks in 2011. The sides are sticking to their guns over tax hikes for the rich, while the GOP also want entitlement changes. Obama is due to today meet a who's who of top CEOs, including those of Wal-Mart, IBM and Ford. [View news story]
The Republicans should just give the voters what they wanted when they re-elected Obama. Suffering the consequences of confiscatory tax policies is the only way to discredit the Liberal economic agenda in the long term. If the Republicans try to hold out, they'll just suffer the blame of falling off the fiscal cliff, but if they cave early then Democrats will bear the blame for ruining the country in 4 years.
The "disconnect" between the price of gold and the valuations of the companies digging it out of the ground hits John Paulson, whose Advantage Plus fund lost 6.7% during April thanks to big bets on gold miners. Gold-mining stocks have gotten hammered of late - far worse than what the price of bullion would suggest. Why a reversion to the mean may be in the offing. [View news story]
I'm surprised nobody here has talked about QE3, or lack thereof, which I believe is the real reason these stocks have languished as of late. Without additional easing on the horizon, investors who have bought these stocks in anticipation of such now have to divest and that is driving prices down.
There is also the issue of demand in India, where a recent tax increase on imported gold was passed. I have heard jewelry makers are boycotting importing precious metals in protest at the moment while trying to get the law changed. Could be a serious crimp in wedding season demand this year.
And finally, if the economy is recovering and QE is done, it is time to sell the gold and go long stocks as the cycle turns.
You are so spot on, but as Chuck Prince said, "While the music is playing you got to get up and dance."
Question is, when does the music stop playing? Luckily we have DJ BB running this party and he'll tell us when the music stops.
I believe it won't stop until there is serious sustained job growth, as per the fed mandate. 200k isn't going to cut it, we have millions of jobs to add.
Best prepare for QE3, and QE4, and QE5 because it will NOT stop until employment recovers or the fed mandate is changed.
Oracle Swings Away in a Market Forgotten [View article]
VLIW has been dead for years because it is just too hard to write a compiler to take advantage of such an architecture. VLIW is all sizzle but no steak.
When it comes down to it, writing good software is harder than making faster hardware, to push the parallelization work on the compiler writer rather than the cpu was just stupid.
Superscalar architectures were a great leap forward that is not so easily discarded. And I've thought so since the Itanium architecture was presented to me at UCLA during my Phd years.
5 Aerospace and Defense Stocks to Buy on Dips [View article]
Ok, since I got a response, I will throw down my best pick in the sector. Let me know what you think. As far as I can tell, any size military needs trucks.
5 Aerospace and Defense Stocks to Buy on Dips [View article]
No mergers allowed between major players, but mid cap names are being encouraged to merge. Maybe you should look to smaller names in the defense sector for outperformance near term?
Entropic Communications: Potential Growth and Little Competition [View article]
There is no doubt that for many people watching sports is the end all be all. However my previous comment I wanted to reflect a position not often considered by analysts who might consider themselves be sport watching fans :)
Entropic Communications: Potential Growth and Little Competition [View article]
"...for a price of $10 a month has tremendous growth and this is the next logical step for home viewing."
Sadly you are wrong, for $10 you can get Netflix and save a ton of money by canceling the cable as I did. I don't miss it at all, and the only thing I hear people miss that they cannot get is live sporting events, but if you don't watch sports, you cancel the cable.
SanDisk: Goldman Sachs Makes a Big Mistake, And Profits [View article]
I think what is going on with Sandisk (SNDK) is their competition is going to heat up this year. With the 2011 US capital investment tax breaks and the free trade agreement with Korea will cause both Micron and Samsung to go all in on flash memory equipment this year, finally. I expect a huge year for semiconductor equipment, the shovels and picks angle on this play. I also believe Sandisk capital expenditures will be higher and more aggressive than expected, and despite this the competition will be right on its heels.
Speaking of semiconductor equipment, might be time for an article on Nove Measuring (NVMI). Earnings are coming out soon and I believe management said they would recognize new customer revenues at the beginning of 2011 on the last conference call.
NVMI looks like a nice fit for Applied Materials on an acquisition basis. I believe their respective product portfolios could be meshed nicely.
Recent technicals are good, and valuation is great even after the move of the prior two days. I can't seem to find another company growing like this with a PE of 10.
American Superconductor Corporation F1Q10 (Qtr. End 06/30/2010) Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
It was a good conference call. However I think the current weakness might be reflecting the statement made at the bottom of the presentation section of the transcript. Where the management said second fiscal quarter earnings would be flat, growth to resume afterwards.
The bottom line, the story is intact, but taking a breather due to this pause (?) in growth. Might give you a good entry point in the next month or so.
Crude Outlook: U.S. Distillate Demand Falling Off a Cliff [View article]
Crude is certainly going up in the long term after disaster that offshore drilling has become.
I'm not so sure oil will head south just because the distillates are overstocked. It seems to me that OPEC has more say over crude prices than speculators, and they are willing to control supply if necessary to moderate pricing.
Instead maybe refiners and refining margins take the pinch this time around.
President Obama will go into budget negotiations with Congressional leaders on Friday calling for a $1.6T increase in tax revenues over 10 years, double the $800B discussed during debt-ceiling talks in 2011. The sides are sticking to their guns over tax hikes for the rich, while the GOP also want entitlement changes. Obama is due to today meet a who's who of top CEOs, including those of Wal-Mart, IBM and Ford. [View news story]
The "disconnect" between the price of gold and the valuations of the companies digging it out of the ground hits John Paulson, whose Advantage Plus fund lost 6.7% during April thanks to big bets on gold miners. Gold-mining stocks have gotten hammered of late - far worse than what the price of bullion would suggest. Why a reversion to the mean may be in the offing. [View news story]
There is also the issue of demand in India, where a recent tax increase on imported gold was passed. I have heard jewelry makers are boycotting importing precious metals in protest at the moment while trying to get the law changed. Could be a serious crimp in wedding season demand this year.
And finally, if the economy is recovering and QE is done, it is time to sell the gold and go long stocks as the cycle turns.
Are Commodity Prices Peaking? [View article]
Question is, when does the music stop playing? Luckily we have DJ BB running this party and he'll tell us when the music stops.
I believe it won't stop until there is serious sustained job growth, as per the fed mandate. 200k isn't going to cut it, we have millions of jobs to add.
Best prepare for QE3, and QE4, and QE5 because it will NOT stop until employment recovers or the fed mandate is changed.
Oracle Swings Away in a Market Forgotten [View article]
When it comes down to it, writing good software is harder than making faster hardware, to push the parallelization work on the compiler writer rather than the cpu was just stupid.
Superscalar architectures were a great leap forward that is not so easily discarded. And I've thought so since the Itanium architecture was presented to me at UCLA during my Phd years.
5 Aerospace and Defense Stocks to Buy on Dips [View article]
(OSK)
no position currently
5 Aerospace and Defense Stocks to Buy on Dips [View article]
Entropic Communications: Potential Growth and Little Competition [View article]
Entropic Communications: Potential Growth and Little Competition [View article]
Sadly you are wrong, for $10 you can get Netflix and save a ton of money by canceling the cable as I did. I don't miss it at all, and the only thing I hear people miss that they cannot get is live sporting events, but if you don't watch sports, you cancel the cable.
SanDisk: Goldman Sachs Makes a Big Mistake, And Profits [View article]
Speaking of semiconductor equipment, might be time for an article on Nove Measuring (NVMI). Earnings are coming out soon and I believe management said they would recognize new customer revenues at the beginning of 2011 on the last conference call.
Looking Chipper: CES Highlights Dependency on Chip Sector [View article]
They present tomorrow at Needham, I think they should be doing well as ORBK business is up.
4 Fallen Stocks for the Fall [View article]
Recent technicals are good, and valuation is great even after the move of the prior two days. I can't seem to find another company growing like this with a PE of 10.
Long NVMI
American Superconductor Corporation F1Q10 (Qtr. End 06/30/2010) Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
The bottom line, the story is intact, but taking a breather due to this pause (?) in growth. Might give you a good entry point in the next month or so.
long AMSC
Crude Outlook: U.S. Distillate Demand Falling Off a Cliff [View article]
I'm not so sure oil will head south just because the distillates are overstocked. It seems to me that OPEC has more say over crude prices than speculators, and they are willing to control supply if necessary to moderate pricing.
Instead maybe refiners and refining margins take the pinch this time around.
Chinalco steps up drive for rare earths: Ominous News for Non Chinese Rare Earth Juniors, but Perhaps, Not for All of Them [View instapost]
EIA Natural Gas Inventory: -191 bcf vs. consensus of -183 bcf. Nat-gas futures -0.6% to $5.362. [View news story]