Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall [View article]
Wow, the fear mongering in this article is palatable.
Yes without program trading there likely would have been no bid during the crash and the country could now be in Great Depression II. However the liquidity added by HFTP insured there was a bid, thereby propping the market up long enough to for us to try and fix it. And while some people claim to think this is a bad thing, I just smell 'short' when I see articles like this.
The bottom line if the banks are manipulating the market, they are doing so to save themselves, the world economic system, and the rest of us to boot, almost certainly in that order.
Nothing to do but buy the banks and sit tight.
And if they don't then a war is coming to realign the political and economic world. Its easy to see, deficit spending on the military to pull out of an economic malaise is a time honored tradition right out of Imperial Japan or Nazi Germany and all the way back to the Roman emperors.
I don't think the author understands the case for Citigroup as presented by Cramer, because honestly it has nothing to do with earnings power from what I can tell.
Citi is a huge multinational bank, it is so enormous that money managers who have strict investment guidelines about matching this or that index MUST buy Citi. It is only because these money managers eventually have to buy Citi, and buy it in spades as the economy and Citi recover, that Cramer is recommending it. He is not recommending it on its earnings power alone, which will be quite weak for some time to come.
Citi is also trading far below tangible book value, even taking into account how cooked that value might be. Banks that are not going out of business can very easily jump in price to the tangible book value. Otherwise the whole is worth less than the parts if you broke the business up and sold it, not counting earnings power at all.
I wouldn't short a bank trading below tangible book value unless I was sure it was going bankrupt. And that right now is off the table for Citi.
Has President Obama's Mortgage Modification Plan Failed? [View article]
Not to turn this into a political debate, but what alternative did the republicans present us with?
A integrity lacking former torturee who now supports torture and his 'when the going gets tough I quit' quitter sidekick. And the candidates seem to get ideologically weirder and more incompetent, if not outright corrupt, by the year.
I voted for Obama because I knew he wouldn't let the banks fail, which has kept us out of great depression 2. Something that McCain has already said he would have let happen. And he is new enough to washington not to be completely corrupted by it yet.
Until the republicans jettison the religious crazies and corrupted ideologues and put forth the next Reagan I, and most sane americans, will continue to vote for the democrats.
The republicans brought it on to themselves, it is time for them to put their house in order but I still see no real effort to do the hard work it will take. Mostly because they cannot take responsibility for their own internal issues.
President Obama will go into budget negotiations with Congressional leaders on Friday calling for a $1.6T increase in tax revenues over 10 years, double the $800B discussed during debt-ceiling talks in 2011. The sides are sticking to their guns over tax hikes for the rich, while the GOP also want entitlement changes. Obama is due to today meet a who's who of top CEOs, including those of Wal-Mart, IBM and Ford. [View news story]
The Republicans should just give the voters what they wanted when they re-elected Obama. Suffering the consequences of confiscatory tax policies is the only way to discredit the Liberal economic agenda in the long term. If the Republicans try to hold out, they'll just suffer the blame of falling off the fiscal cliff, but if they cave early then Democrats will bear the blame for ruining the country in 4 years.
T. Boone Pickens: Move 18-Wheeler Fleet to Natural Gas [View article]
If there is any part of Pickens Plan that is feasible and effective it would certainly be replacing the diesel 18 wheelers. You'll only need to put up natural gas refilling stations at interstate truck stops and bam you could support long haul fleets.
Those who think the efficiency of rails over trucks means a change in the basic way goods get transported across this country is coming are going to be highly disappointed when they realize all the truckers can just switch to Nat Gas and eventually other types of truck engine technology while maintaining their direct point to point hauling advantages. Putting up refilling stations and building new truck engines is a lot easier than negotiating to lay rail track any day.
As far as I know WPRT has the only heavy duty natural gas engines suitable for long haul 18 wheelers. Daimler and Volvo both have recent deals for the engines and technology. I like WPRT over FSYS and CLNE for such reasons although all of these are much better plays than any Nat Gas E&P for this theme.
The Case for Shorting Bank of America [View article]
Shorting on technicals is like russian roulette. You have to look at the fundamentals.
On fundamentals, BAC is still trading below tangible book value and being a huge multinational bank there are money managers that will have to buy this bank as the economy turns as they are required to match this or that index. Throw in the fact that housing has bottomed and the fees from refinancing mortgages for some real earnings power and you'd be insane to short BAC.
WFC does look weaker though, trading above tangible book value and being USA centric with little overseas exposure. There is also a Buffett halo with WFC for what that might be worth. Maybe you could squeeze a small profit here on the short side.
Really though, shorting banks was last year's trade. This year's trade is to buy and hold the financials tight.
At first skeptical, I've become a believer. If half the story I learned this weekend is true, RMBS is a $100 stock.
My bet is also that IBM will use XDR for its soon to come Power7 chips. This will force everyone to license and adopt Rambus's XDR tech or get smoked in performance by the IBM processors.
I haven't find out if the Blue Waters system will use XDR, but given the memory bandwidth estimates and the total memory size I wouldn't be surprised.
If anyone can comment on the Power7 using XDR that would be welcome!
Credit Card Delinquency Wave Reaching Tidal Force [View article]
I have read that credit card defaults in july are actually down across the board for Citi, BAC and especially JPM. I believe JPM is actually poised for quite a pop up when the good news about 3rd quarter earnings are released.
If You Want Rambus, Now Is the Time [View article]
From the description I've read on the terms of the convertible notes it seems that dilution only occurs if when redeemed Rambus doesn't have the cash to cover the full amount of the notes. In which case the difference will be made up of common stock. The conversion date is also contingent upon certain events, most likely settlement of one or more cases. You can read what I read about it on Reuters here:
In other words, it seems that if Rambus has the cash to pay off the notes in full when they are called to be redeemed then there will be no dilution of the common stock. The terms of this deal seem super sweet for Rambus and my bet is the only way they got this deal is because they have a strong position in their court cases after the EU announcement.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but down 12% today seems like a gross overreaction. I guess everyone wants to jump in and short anything they can.
Nasty Implications of the UAW Owning Too Much of the Auto Industry [View article]
Regardless of the final decision made the supreme court needs to take up this case simply to decide once and for all what the law of the land will be going forward. Otherwise no one will have clarity to invest in or loan money to these car companies in the future.
The "disconnect" between the price of gold and the valuations of the companies digging it out of the ground hits John Paulson, whose Advantage Plus fund lost 6.7% during April thanks to big bets on gold miners. Gold-mining stocks have gotten hammered of late - far worse than what the price of bullion would suggest. Why a reversion to the mean may be in the offing. [View news story]
I'm surprised nobody here has talked about QE3, or lack thereof, which I believe is the real reason these stocks have languished as of late. Without additional easing on the horizon, investors who have bought these stocks in anticipation of such now have to divest and that is driving prices down.
There is also the issue of demand in India, where a recent tax increase on imported gold was passed. I have heard jewelry makers are boycotting importing precious metals in protest at the moment while trying to get the law changed. Could be a serious crimp in wedding season demand this year.
And finally, if the economy is recovering and QE is done, it is time to sell the gold and go long stocks as the cycle turns.
You are so spot on, but as Chuck Prince said, "While the music is playing you got to get up and dance."
Question is, when does the music stop playing? Luckily we have DJ BB running this party and he'll tell us when the music stops.
I believe it won't stop until there is serious sustained job growth, as per the fed mandate. 200k isn't going to cut it, we have millions of jobs to add.
Best prepare for QE3, and QE4, and QE5 because it will NOT stop until employment recovers or the fed mandate is changed.
Oracle Swings Away in a Market Forgotten [View article]
VLIW has been dead for years because it is just too hard to write a compiler to take advantage of such an architecture. VLIW is all sizzle but no steak.
When it comes down to it, writing good software is harder than making faster hardware, to push the parallelization work on the compiler writer rather than the cpu was just stupid.
Superscalar architectures were a great leap forward that is not so easily discarded. And I've thought so since the Itanium architecture was presented to me at UCLA during my Phd years.
NVMI looks like a nice fit for Applied Materials on an acquisition basis. I believe their respective product portfolios could be meshed nicely.
Recent technicals are good, and valuation is great even after the move of the prior two days. I can't seem to find another company growing like this with a PE of 10.
Bear Market Rally: Hoping Cramer's Not the Ultimate Contrarian Indicator [View article]
I'm new to watching Cramer, but the man has made me a ton of money.
I pulled my Vanguard investments in October last year after the crash thinking why should I pay those bozos to lose my money for me, I can do that myself, and put what I had left all on AMD stock when it was below 2 after hearing Cramer recommend it in November. I did my homework and thought they had a chance after ATIC bailed them out.
I saw the Jon Stewart/Cramer episode and felt Jim did the best he could while sitting in that frying pan. I felt if there was ever a time to listen to Cramer, it was then at the peak of negativity against him. It was early March and a short while later Jim Cramer came out and said it was a new bull market. I listened and held on to my stocks during the rally and didn't sell.
I've made back all of my losses for 2008 on that AMD bet and others and am now in the black again.
Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall [View article]
Yes without program trading there likely would have been no bid during the crash and the country could now be in Great Depression II. However the liquidity added by HFTP insured there was a bid, thereby propping the market up long enough to for us to try and fix it. And while some people claim to think this is a bad thing, I just smell 'short' when I see articles like this.
The bottom line if the banks are manipulating the market, they are doing so to save themselves, the world economic system, and the rest of us to boot, almost certainly in that order.
Nothing to do but buy the banks and sit tight.
And if they don't then a war is coming to realign the political and economic world. Its easy to see, deficit spending on the military to pull out of an economic malaise is a time honored tradition right out of Imperial Japan or Nazi Germany and all the way back to the Roman emperors.
In which case, buy defense, sit tight.
Now that's fear mongering!
Citigroup Looks Overpriced [View article]
Citi is a huge multinational bank, it is so enormous that money managers who have strict investment guidelines about matching this or that index MUST buy Citi. It is only because these money managers eventually have to buy Citi, and buy it in spades as the economy and Citi recover, that Cramer is recommending it. He is not recommending it on its earnings power alone, which will be quite weak for some time to come.
Citi is also trading far below tangible book value, even taking into account how cooked that value might be. Banks that are not going out of business can very easily jump in price to the tangible book value. Otherwise the whole is worth less than the parts if you broke the business up and sold it, not counting earnings power at all.
I wouldn't short a bank trading below tangible book value unless I was sure it was going bankrupt. And that right now is off the table for Citi.
Has President Obama's Mortgage Modification Plan Failed? [View article]
A integrity lacking former torturee who now supports torture and his 'when the going gets tough I quit' quitter sidekick. And the candidates seem to get ideologically weirder and more incompetent, if not outright corrupt, by the year.
I voted for Obama because I knew he wouldn't let the banks fail, which has kept us out of great depression 2. Something that McCain has already said he would have let happen. And he is new enough to washington not to be completely corrupted by it yet.
Until the republicans jettison the religious crazies and corrupted ideologues and put forth the next Reagan I, and most sane americans, will continue to vote for the democrats.
The republicans brought it on to themselves, it is time for them to put their house in order but I still see no real effort to do the hard work it will take. Mostly because they cannot take responsibility for their own internal issues.
President Obama will go into budget negotiations with Congressional leaders on Friday calling for a $1.6T increase in tax revenues over 10 years, double the $800B discussed during debt-ceiling talks in 2011. The sides are sticking to their guns over tax hikes for the rich, while the GOP also want entitlement changes. Obama is due to today meet a who's who of top CEOs, including those of Wal-Mart, IBM and Ford. [View news story]
T. Boone Pickens: Move 18-Wheeler Fleet to Natural Gas [View article]
Those who think the efficiency of rails over trucks means a change in the basic way goods get transported across this country is coming are going to be highly disappointed when they realize all the truckers can just switch to Nat Gas and eventually other types of truck engine technology while maintaining their direct point to point hauling advantages. Putting up refilling stations and building new truck engines is a lot easier than negotiating to lay rail track any day.
As far as I know WPRT has the only heavy duty natural gas engines suitable for long haul 18 wheelers. Daimler and Volvo both have recent deals for the engines and technology. I like WPRT over FSYS and CLNE for such reasons although all of these are much better plays than any Nat Gas E&P for this theme.
Disclosure: Long WPRT
The Case for Shorting Bank of America [View article]
On fundamentals, BAC is still trading below tangible book value and being a huge multinational bank there are money managers that will have to buy this bank as the economy turns as they are required to match this or that index. Throw in the fact that housing has bottomed and the fees from refinancing mortgages for some real earnings power and you'd be insane to short BAC.
WFC does look weaker though, trading above tangible book value and being USA centric with little overseas exposure. There is also a Buffett halo with WFC for what that might be worth. Maybe you could squeeze a small profit here on the short side.
Really though, shorting banks was last year's trade. This year's trade is to buy and hold the financials tight.
(long BAC)
Is Rambus the Next 27 Bagger? [View article]
My bet is also that IBM will use XDR for its soon to come Power7 chips. This will force everyone to license and adopt Rambus's XDR tech or get smoked in performance by the IBM processors.
I haven't find out if the Blue Waters system will use XDR, but given the memory bandwidth estimates and the total memory size I wouldn't be surprised.
If anyone can comment on the Power7 using XDR that would be welcome!
Joseph
Credit Card Delinquency Wave Reaching Tidal Force [View article]
(long JPM)
If You Want Rambus, Now Is the Time [View article]
www.reuters.com/financ...
In other words, it seems that if Rambus has the cash to pay off the notes in full when they are called to be redeemed then there will be no dilution of the common stock. The terms of this deal seem super sweet for Rambus and my bet is the only way they got this deal is because they have a strong position in their court cases after the EU announcement.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but down 12% today seems like a gross overreaction. I guess everyone wants to jump in and short anything they can.
Joseph
Nasty Implications of the UAW Owning Too Much of the Auto Industry [View article]
The "disconnect" between the price of gold and the valuations of the companies digging it out of the ground hits John Paulson, whose Advantage Plus fund lost 6.7% during April thanks to big bets on gold miners. Gold-mining stocks have gotten hammered of late - far worse than what the price of bullion would suggest. Why a reversion to the mean may be in the offing. [View news story]
There is also the issue of demand in India, where a recent tax increase on imported gold was passed. I have heard jewelry makers are boycotting importing precious metals in protest at the moment while trying to get the law changed. Could be a serious crimp in wedding season demand this year.
And finally, if the economy is recovering and QE is done, it is time to sell the gold and go long stocks as the cycle turns.
Are Commodity Prices Peaking? [View article]
Question is, when does the music stop playing? Luckily we have DJ BB running this party and he'll tell us when the music stops.
I believe it won't stop until there is serious sustained job growth, as per the fed mandate. 200k isn't going to cut it, we have millions of jobs to add.
Best prepare for QE3, and QE4, and QE5 because it will NOT stop until employment recovers or the fed mandate is changed.
Oracle Swings Away in a Market Forgotten [View article]
When it comes down to it, writing good software is harder than making faster hardware, to push the parallelization work on the compiler writer rather than the cpu was just stupid.
Superscalar architectures were a great leap forward that is not so easily discarded. And I've thought so since the Itanium architecture was presented to me at UCLA during my Phd years.
4 Fallen Stocks for the Fall [View article]
Recent technicals are good, and valuation is great even after the move of the prior two days. I can't seem to find another company growing like this with a PE of 10.
Long NVMI
Bear Market Rally: Hoping Cramer's Not the Ultimate Contrarian Indicator [View article]
I pulled my Vanguard investments in October last year after the crash thinking why should I pay those bozos to lose my money for me, I can do that myself, and put what I had left all on AMD stock when it was below 2 after hearing Cramer recommend it in November. I did my homework and thought they had a chance after ATIC bailed them out.
I saw the Jon Stewart/Cramer episode and felt Jim did the best he could while sitting in that frying pan. I felt if there was ever a time to listen to Cramer, it was then at the peak of negativity against him. It was early March and a short while later Jim Cramer came out and said it was a new bull market. I listened and held on to my stocks during the rally and didn't sell.
I've made back all of my losses for 2008 on that AMD bet and others and am now in the black again.
Say what you want, but he really helped me out.