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Jason Aycock

Jason Aycock
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  • Just One Stock: Returns, Cash Flow, Emerging-Market Potential for Coke's World-Class Beverage Brand [View article]
    Though we tried to touch on the CCE aspect a bit too, so that should be investigated by anyone looking at investing in KO, of course.
    Apr 12, 2011. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: Returns, Cash Flow, Emerging-Market Potential for Coke's World-Class Beverage Brand [View article]
    Poortorich:

    Not to jump in before Christian, but using trailing twelve-months diluted EPS of $5.06 and depending on the price: today's close of $66.90/5.06 = 13.22x
    Apr 12, 2011. 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If you're keeping an eye on skyrocketing food and fiber prices (past 12 months: an 82% corn pop, a 142% gain in cotton, wheat prices soaring worldwide), then you'll want to join those scrutinizing tomorrow's annual crop-planting report - the best outlook on upcoming supplies until farmers actually put crops into the soil. Eyes are especially on corn (92M expected acres).  [View news story]
    True; though I wrote this to be more about price levels than inflation per se. Certainly, Prospective Plantings is short-term info, in the sense that we'll know later this spring what was actually put in the ground.
    Mar 30, 2011. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another session low for stock indexes (S&P 500 -1.2%), and Nasdaq hits 2% down with big names all suffering: AAPL -2%, CSCO -1.8%, INTC -2%, MSFT -1.1%. Semiconductors have been down more than 3%.  [View news story]
    You're right (and thanks) -- got a completely erroneous quote. Semiconductor weakness is widespread. (SOXX) and (SMH) now -3.7%.
    Mar 7, 2011. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed buys $6.688B in Treasurys maturing 2013-2015, of $37.36B submitted by dealers. Since the Fed announced in August it would reinvest proceeds from maturing debt, total purchases come to over $425B. Bonds continue to trade lower: 30-year yield +0.03 to 4.71%; 10-year +0.04 to 3.62%; 2-year +0.03 to 0.79%.  [View news story]
    Of course it's mostly electronic, but at least one answer to your question is "very, very busy" Fortress Paper (FTPLF.PK), which supplies paper for euros and Swiss francs ...

    seekingalpha.com/curre...
    Feb 18, 2011. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding the auto rebound, formerly bankrupt parts maker Lear (LEA) is up 1.8% as it announces a 2-for-1 split, a $400M buyback program and a quarterly dividend - all of which still look "fairly conservative," considering a $1.7B cash balance, says an analyst.  [View news story]
    Volume!
    Feb 17, 2011. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One ETF: Controlling Risk Through Hedge Fund Replication [View article]
    David:

    Not to quibble with any of your points except this one: You say the underperformance in the chart speaks for itself -- it's a one-year chart; is one year your default horizon, where an investment's success or failure is self-evident?
    Feb 12, 2011. 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Equity gains were tempered in the afternoon, but every sector but energy managed an advance, and commodities were mixed: Cotton spikes, natgas tumbles. AIG rose 6% as insurers led financials higher.  [View news story]
    True, but ERX is heavy on XOM and CVX and missed big decliners like Petrobras and Ensco.
    Feb 8, 2011. 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing (BA -1.9%) trading lower after its downgrade by Fitch based on cash-flow issues related to delays in the 787 Dreamliner and the efficiency-improved 747-8. "Substantial cash flow" could be ahead for Boeing from the 787, the rater says, but the plane is now almost three years behind schedule.  [View news story]
    Indeed ... we're all just trying to catch up. Boeing I suppose is no exception ...
    Jan 28, 2011. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While the BLS reported consumer prices rose 0.5%, the Cleveland Fed's alternative measure (the 16% trimmed-mean CPI, which excludes the most volatile changes) rose just 0.1%, an annualized 1.6%. In the past 12 months, Cleveland Fed's trimmed-mean CPI rose 0.8% and median CPI rose 0.6%.  [View news story]
    The point that Cleveland Fed has is that instead of just excluding food and energy *because* they're volatile, trimmed-mean CPI excludes volatility whatever it is. It's a shift in time focus for sure.

    Because of that, at the least you might consider it more useful than core inflation -- which lets in extreme price changes so long as they're *not* food or energy.
    Jan 14, 2011. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One Stock: The Small Manufacturer Dominating the Rescue Hoist Market [View article]
    Hi Marc ... thanks for asking; it gives me a chance to amplify the description at the top.

    In terms of what we accomplish, the interviews (you can read more at seekingalpha.com/tag/j... and seekingalpha.com/tag/j...) I think speak for themselves -- for a while now, I've asked money managers what their high-conviction holding is, whether long or short. And then pressed into the fundamental details of why.

    It's not too much more or less than that. The expectation is that you might get a perspective on an aspect of a security or asset class you may have overlooked, or a security like this one that's off the beaten path a bit. Our CEO, David Jackson, has explained the value of "buy-side research" -- not a recommendation for or against a stock, but a description of why a manager like James took the position he did.

    And then down here we can ask questions and debate the merits, or lack thereof. Your second-to-last paragraph is the key one for me: Is it worth the liquidity risk, etc. Someone else may like or dislike its debt/equity ratio, and so on. It's not a recommendation but one person's explanation of a high-conviction position.

    I have yet to meet a security that's for everyone, so -- as always -- your own due diligence needs to inform whether any investment, like BZC or the other stocks and ETFs that get mentioned here, is worth your time and money.

    Feel free to message me if there's anything I can help clear up.
    Jan 13, 2011. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Natural Gas Inventory: -164 bcf in-line with consensus. Futures -3.5% to $4.07.  [View news story]
    One explanation: forecasts for a warm-up in the Northeast and normal temps in NY and Pennsylvania.

    More: seekingalpha.com/curre...
    Dec 16, 2010. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage delinquencies should drop a steep 20% in 2011, to 5% of mortgages from 6.2%, TransUnion says - though that number would still be historically high: "We think that the mortgage industry isn't out of the woods yet, but it's starting to move in a better direction." The agency says credit-card delinquencies will keep falling, but not as sharply.  [View news story]
    No. Talking about the rate of decline in a rate:
    1.23/6.21 = 20%.

    This is why you see reporters specify the difference between *percentage points* and *percentage* gain/loss. Going from 6.21% to 4.98% is:
    --a decline of 1.23 percentage points
    --a decline of 20%.
    Dec 7, 2010. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With job openings ticking up to a two-year high in October, why weren't more workers hired? Could be a lag, in which case December's unemployment numbers will look a lot better. Or the jobless aren't trying that hard to find jobs, or are a very bad fit for the jobs that are available - but it's probably all of the above.  [View news story]
    I agree wholeheartedly here. Not only could we use more discussion of mobility in current unemployment debates, the issue is surely going to change the whole idea of homeownership for a generation.
    Dec 7, 2010. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With job openings ticking up to a two-year high in October, why weren't more workers hired? Could be a lag, in which case December's unemployment numbers will look a lot better. Or the jobless aren't trying that hard to find jobs, or are a very bad fit for the jobs that are available - but it's probably all of the above.  [View news story]
    I think as written this reflects Daniel's conclusion ... he cites reasons why each of these isn't sufficient on its own, then:

    "It's most plausible, however, that all of these explanations are playing a part simultaneously. There is likely some lag, which unemployment benefits have increased since they allow workers to be pickier. Openings aren't likely a perfect match for the experience and location of job seekers."
    Dec 7, 2010. 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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