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  • Sell Tesla Now, Its Strategy Is Already Failing  [View article]
    true, but tsla is several times more overpriced than amzn. lets take price to sales since these companies don't have earnings:

    amzn price/sales:2.25 vs. walmart price/sales: 0.52
    multiple: 4.32

    tsla price/sales: 16.83
    gm price/sales: 0.33 - multiple:51
    TM price/sales: 0.7 - multiple: 24
    F price/sales: 0.48 - multiple: 35

    so tsla is roughly 6-12 times more expensive than amzn on a p/s basis compared to their respective peers.
    Oct 21, 2013. 05:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TearLab: Watch For A Sharp Drop On Equity Offering  [View article]
    order backlog? check their 10k, they have $1.86 million in inventory. Compare that to how much they actually sold in 2012, $2.3 million. Looks like they have a backlog of product, not orders.
    Apr 25, 2013. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TearLab: Watch For A Sharp Drop On Equity Offering  [View article]
    Very nice work. I'm really confused as to why this stock has gone up so much, given the lack of market, lack of need, and lack of profits. Just another pump and dump by analyst/investment bankers jockeying for an underwriting fee.
    Apr 24, 2013. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Where Is The Bottom?  [View article]
    I'm not sure anything has changed that would result in an increase in the organic growth rate from 3% to 28%. As the Citron article points out (, 3D printing has been around for 30 years.

    Here's the first hyping of 3D printing, from 1989:

    I agree that market penetration has gone up and adoption has gone up, but if anything this will make double digit growth more difficult.
    Mar 20, 2013. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Where Is The Bottom?  [View article]
    Thanks for clarifying. Probably want to stick with diluted eps / GAAP. 28% is still a lot higher than 3%. I guess if it does grow at that rate, and the stock price doesn't move, it might be closer to a good buy when it hits that pe of 22 in two years. I guess we'll see. In any case, I would suggest to anyone watching this stock to wait to see the bottom before jumping in, don't try to predict it, don't try to catch the falling knife.
    Mar 19, 2013. 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Where Is The Bottom?  [View article]
    "Trailing P/E is still high at 62.79, but the forward P/E is 23.02"

    63/23 = 2.7 -> 270% earnings growth, right?

    The current and past P/E were dependent on continued growth. Without the growth, why would you buy at stock at a p/e of 63?
    Mar 19, 2013. 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Where Is The Bottom?  [View article]
    So you're prediction is y/y organic growth of 270%?
    Mar 19, 2013. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Where Is The Bottom?  [View article]
    DDD is a classic boom and bust. They used their higher stock to buy many companies (32 in fact) to boost their revenues and earnings so as to further boost their stock and buy more companies, leading to a classic "reflexive" feedback cycle, a.k.a the conglomerates and REIT'S analyzed by Soros in the 60's and 70's ( See these articles for great analyses:,

    Your assumption of continued growth at current levels is wrong. Now that the stock is dropping, DDD can no longer sustain its acquisition spree, growth will slow, and the stock will drop until the pe ratio reflects this. Even if its stock wasn't dropping, is there any more 3D printing companies left that it could buy at a good price? Everything in this space is insanely overvalued.

    Speculators pulling out of the stock will further drive down prices. Hard to say where it hits bottom, but at its current valuation it has plenty of room to fall until its fairly valued its organic growth rate of 3% in the pre-acquisition period (FY00-FY08).
    Mar 19, 2013. 02:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rotate From Consumer Discretionary Into Technology As Market Approaches Interim Top  [View article]
    I have also rotated into tech, no other sector can offer as low a pe with as high an earnings growth rate. Tech seems to be in a low "fad" cycle relative to other sectors. From the prices people are paying, it seems that people think that GE and P&G are going to grow much faster than Apple and Intel, which to me at least does not make much sense. Computing devices and software will continue their exponential proliferation, and a tech etf is a great way to capture this growth. Its only a matter of time before more people realize how cheap tech looks relative to other sectors.
    Mar 10, 2013. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Weakness In Acacia Research Presents Buying Opportunity  [View article]
    Great article. I was wondering why the stock with dropping after earnings up 300% y/y. You make really good points that even if this bill does pass, which is extremely unlikely, it is also unlikely to materially affect ACTG's bottom line in any significant way.
    Mar 5, 2013. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Staying Far Away From First Solar  [View article]
    I COMPLETELY agree with what you've written in this article. You've done potential investors a great service by offering a very reasonable counter argument to the bullish articles that have come out since the last earnings. When management is negative, you know its time to look for a new investment opportunity. They are not talking about their ability to make money, they are touting their ability to survive. The consolidation in the solar industry has only just begun, and may take several years to wind out before margins stabilize at something close to sustainability. Even then, we are talking about margins comparable to those of other utility companies, at best.
    Mar 5, 2013. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Opportunity Knocks  [View article]
    With a loss each of the last two years, FSLR does not meet the criteria for a defensive, enterprising, or NCAV investment.
    Mar 1, 2013. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Opportunity Knocks  [View article]
    Have you read Graham's "securties analysis"? One of the main points is that you can't count on a business continuing the performance of the past. This is true in the solar industry more than any other. Don't get me wrong, I like first solar's approach to the business, but a greater margin of safety could by found by valuing the business with $2 a share in earnings, and seeing if it ever falls to that point. If you buy with any other earnings in mind, your more likely to have a downside than an upside. Best of Luck!
    Feb 28, 2013. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Portfolio For The Smartest People  [View article]
    I agree with most of what you say, but I think people can afford to be a little less dumb with their portfolios. There is no cost of exchanging between vanguard etf's and funds if you have a vanguard account. As some of the comments suggest, it would be dumb to invest in bonds right now given the earnings yield of stocks relative to bonds, and the practical inevitability of bond prices falling. People would do well to slant towards etf/funds with the highest growth/pe ratios. For example, vanguard technology (vgt) captures earnings growth at 24% (versus 9.2% for vti) at a slightly lower pe ratio (16.7) than vti (17.2). Vanguard emerging markets (VWO) is also a better deal (pe at 13.6, growth at 14.3%), as is strategic equity (VSEQX, 15.2x, 9.9%). An investor could rebalance FOR FREE as valuations change. This would allow concentration in the highest growth areas (emerging markets, small-mid cap, tech) while avoiding the majority of overvalued equities.
    Feb 28, 2013. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4-Year Stock Optimist Turns Negative - 4 Signs Market Is On Thin Ice  [View article]
    Stocks are high? Relative to what? Bonds? Where are people supposed to invest to get the best return?
    Feb 28, 2013. 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment