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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • Will China Bring Down Global Markets? [View article]
    The strong Dollar is the new black swan event. First it torpedoed oil; developing countries next; then the world banking system as defaults shake the banks to the core; central banks already wasted trillions on payouts to the banks and corporations, Welfare for the Rich, paying corporations with QE and ZIRP NOT to make changes and adjust to the new reality.

    Only one way to avoid this, more QE from America. But then we slip into the euthanasia of fiat currencies through NIRP, hyperinflation, the destruction of solvencies and the return to gold-based currencies and economies.

    Those are the two choices.

    SHANGHAI is down 9% Monday morning. I'm 90% short, so I'm smiling. I'm starting to buy gold for the first time since 2013.

    Spend money you don't have, grow a big debt bubble using logic like "Debt is Good; And More Debt is Even Better"...and, then, before long, the Devil shows up, as he is showing up now.

    March 2015: Is the Strong Dollar Taking Apart the Bull Market Brick-By-Brick?

    January 2015: Is the Strong Dollar the New Black Swan Event
    Aug 24, 2015. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of Something Big? [View article]
    I like your Economic Activity Chart. If you could fill in the Time Axis with dates it would be even more meaningful.

    Try these:

    1911 - Reflation
    1920 - Inflation
    1929: Disinflation
    1936: Deflation

    1947 - Reflation
    1956 - Inflation
    1965 - Disinflation
    1974 - Deflation

    1983 - Reflation
    1992 - Inflation
    2001 - Disinflation
    2010 -Deflation

    2019 - Reflation
    2028 - Inflation
    2037 - Disinflation
    2046 - Deflation

    "Inflation" is used here less as a description of runaway inflation, which happens more often in the Disinflation Season, but to mean economic growth -- the inflation of an economy (like the inflation of a basketball). Runaway inflation happens because of attempts to extend the growth or inflation season with ill-judged monetary fixes.

    The suggestion above is that we will have another apex of the Global Economy in about 2037, with resulting panic, bank corruption, monetary theft of future public revenues....and descent into global depression in 2046-2055.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    Yes, Alexander. I see everything I write. I'm not sure believing is the correct way to view it. I see it.

    From your tone, I'm expecting that you do not see it. I would probably say that the Left Brain can't see the Right Brain. And that is why we have so much conflict and warfare. I do see your side however. I see both sides. And how these different systems and times work with each other historically and psychologically.

    Remember, because you can't see it doesn't mean it is not there. Science scoffed at the ideas of electro-magnetism, anti-matter, and dark-mattter until they found a machine capable to better measurement; then they could see it. Reason always follows imagination, because reason needs an instrument or a measuring machine (a pair of glasses?) to find reality; imagination and reality are not so separated as are reason and reality.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    The same old tired argument between the two sides of the brain. The Left Brain loves Capitalism, seeing only its positive side; the Right Brain hates Capitalism, seeing only its negative side. The Left Brain hates Socialism, seeing only its negative side; the Right Brain loves Socialism, seeing only its positive side.

    The TRUTH is (which can only be seen with both sides of the brain operating) is that Youth is Capitalistic and Age is Socialistic. Youth and Age have seasons, and take turns seeing the world. Youth (Capitalism) works for a time, and is relatively pure for a time: but always decays into State Capitalism, a form of economic fascism. Age (Socialism) works for a time, and is relatively pure for a time; but always decays into stagnation and corruption. Youth saves the world from Socialism; Age saves the world from Capitalism.

    In the West we like our dualities: Capitalism is good; Socialism is bad. This also translates as Youth is good; Age is bad. That is why we treat our elders so horribly in the West.

    The economic cycle lasts 36 years. 18 years of Capitalism (...1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001; ...) -- Capitalism (Youth) ends badly, with bank corruption and corporate theft and depression. Youth dies. Socialism tries to pick up the pieces after Capitalism crashes the system thrugh Greed.

    We need to understand that life is a process, not a static polarized system. Youth flows into Age, Age flows into Youth, as Day flows into Night, Night into Day

    1911-1929: Youth

    1929-1947: Age

    1947-1965: Youth

    1965-1983: Age

    1983-2001: Youth

    2001-2019: Age

    Youth is the Spending Season, the age of Spending Energy through Activity. Energy (Time) runs out. In 2001, we began to run out of time and energhy. Also in 1965. Also in 1929....take it back into earlier centuries also. Age is the Saving Season, the age of Conservation of Energy. The system is very much like Alternating Current (Electricity) -- the pulse flows in one direction, then stops, changes direction, and flows in the opposite direction.

    From 1911-1929: God/Nature favors the re-creation of the material world, the West

    From 1929-1947: God/Nature fabors the re-destruction of the material world, the East. 18 years of expansion (Zeus-Jupiter for the Greeks); 18 years of contraction, back into the seed, zero (Kronos-Saturn for the Greeks).

    God/Nature destroys the world to punish it (this is the moralistic view, and one we can't ignore), but also to make room for the next model of the world. We build the world; we knock it down; we re-build a better model. Of course, watch out. The knocking down of the world runs from 2001-2019, and this season almost always contains major wars.

    My thesis is that we all need to be both Capitalists and Socialists -- every society is both and needs to be both -- and the manifestation of each of these partners or opponent natures is sequential. The Capitalism builds the world and then vanishes, abandons it, leaving the degenerating world behind for the Socialists (in society and in us also) to administer. Youth is Spring-Summer; Age is Autumn-Winter. No growth occurs in Autumn-Winter. Growth is a province of Youth and the Sun seasons; Age is a province of lost enrgy and the Moon seasons.

    Capitalism is good and evil; socialism is good and evil. Both are necessary. Both are imperfect. In 2019, this latest Deflation Season will be at its apex (as the Capitaist Inflation Season was at its apex in 2001 -- the Lunar religion attack on the Twin Towers, the symbol of the Global Economy, was a very powerful symbolism of the end of this cycle of capitalism, Day, and the beginning Energy Crisis (Spiritual Energy Crisis) that would lead to another 18 year Dark Age (described perfectly by the Book of Revelation) -- but the Light of the West will begin to reform in 2019, slowly, two steps up and one step back, bringing the light of materialism back to the world, for another 18 year cycle of growth.

    Of course, the European Dark Age after the fall of Rome suggests only a number of such Day-Cycles occur before a larger cycle kicks in. The larger Dark Age runs for 2160 years (36 x 60), which governs the expected return of Christ and the institution of a new age.

    A Millennium as a cycle lasts 1080 years (36 x 30). We need to let God back into our lives in the West, not as a function of the corrupt Christianity that exists today, but as a new religious reformation that shows us how to 'tell time' in the larger sense of the words. Science and reason is left brain. But the left brain is running out of energy and out of time. We need to be able to find our way back into the Right Brain, which alone explains the wave-function of life. We are experiencing the collapse of the object function. The object funcation is a very Western concept, alligned with individualism. The object function gets washed or wiped away during the Dark Age or Night-Cycle. And that is where we are going.

    Lookiing at the world today, stock markets included, with the huge debt bubble we created so bravely and perhaps stupiidly: this debt-generated bubble is the Object Function World and today we are watching the collapse of the object function back into the wave function -- the flood -- so I hope we all know how to swim.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: The Bottom Is In...Again [View article]
    It's going lower. 13 cents below IPO now, with no bottom in sight. I think we are in a place comparable to 2001 Nasdaq bubble. A lot of companies are heading out of sight, into the abyss.
    Aug 23, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere Energy: Time To Buy The Drop [View article]
    Don't go near LNG yet. It has not bottomed. Medhanie is right: this is still a short. The days of buying every dip for a profit are over.
    Aug 22, 2015. 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    All this 'rational' discussion of supply and demand. Are we still laboring under the illusion that financial markets are rational? This seems like a childish view to me. How does one measure the Fear and Greed in the markets? Certainly company earnings statements are not about the level of Fear and Greed in the markets -- and unless you have your finger on the FG pulse, seems to me you are evaluation Talking Head symtoms only.

    Financial markets are EMOTIONAL, traded by emotional traders in the guise of rational investors. Panic Buying and Panic Selling are about fear of missing out. And this is what drives the blood of the markets. The rationalism is a thin veneer only.
    Aug 22, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Behavioral Correction Has Begun [View article]
    Alex: Are you asking me? Or the author?

    I'm pretty aggressively short oil and emerging markets. I can tell you more if you are interested.
    Aug 22, 2015. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    We won't see it $100 oil again without QE in America -- without America rejoining the currency race to the bottom.
    Aug 22, 2015. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: Periscope Is On Fire [View article]
    I'm a verbal person also. But the truth is, the world can't be comprehended fully through only the left brain. Words and pictures (rationalization and dreaming) go together like day and night.
    Aug 21, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    Is the strong Dollar a new black swan event? I say it is. Oil price is the shadow of the Dollar, high during US QE and other "kill the dollar" episodes, low when the Dollar is allowed to run.
    Aug 21, 2015. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: The Bottom Is In...Again [View article]
    When I write that we are in a global depression, I am talking about economies. Stocks are up because all the central banks in the world are stealing trillions from the future and throwing it into the markets (QE) and sitting on zero interest rates to encourage more speculation.

    We have found that you can steal money from the future to try to camouflage a Great Depression -- but that is just kicking the depression can down the road. The mayhem you see in the markets is a realization (finally, we are waking up) that the central banks are not going to foot the bill forever through our unborn grandchildren to keep us comfortable and lying to ourselves about the global debt-fueled depression we are in.

    It is time for us to wake up to the facts.
    Aug 21, 2015. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    Where is the crude oil bottom? Where is the strong US Dollar top? These are, in truth, the same question.
    Aug 21, 2015. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Kind Of 'Improvement' Does The Fed Want? [View article]
    Did you read yesterday that the St. Louis Fed released a paper showing that QE, in fact everything Bernanke did, was a mistake. It did not focus on the destruction of the Middle Class, but on the inability of QE to generate growth, even inflationary growth.

    Now the strong dollar is taking the global economy apart, brick by brick. Which is what QE avoided. QE weakened the US Dollar, which allowed the global debt bubble to continue growing. Now, without QE, and with talk on an interest rate hike (coming 14 years too late), the Dollar is riding high, and is deconstructing the global economy. Finally, the deflation that we have needed. The FED may choose another round of QE for the express purposes of weakening the dollar. The race to the bottom, which the US started -- it is almost comical to hear US congressmen blaming China now.

    IF we choose more QE, that means negative interest rates. This is a perversion of reality. Can you imagine the lure of refinancing debt into negative interest rates? This is the end of capitalism as we have known it, whereby the government encourages profligate borrowing and backstops it with not just interest-free loans but loans carrying annual bank rebates. I will take a negative 3.5% interest on a home purchase, with an order of fries and a chocolate malt.

    A normal bear market loses about 1% per year for 18 years, a pretty normal healthy 20% correction. Because we so fear this 20% normal correction, we have stolen trillions from the future to try to buy off the devil. This fear of death is not honorable. Death is a season, not an absolute. Because we have no understanding of philosophy/theololgy we let our mortal brains (Left Brain, reason, Man worship, Ego) run the world -- which is notoriously one-sided. We die every 36 years; and we a reborn and build a new world. Why this time have we become such cowards, refusing to let Nature and Evolution work itself out. Death (Economic Depression) is supposed to kill off weak companies, giving room for new companies to rise in their place. Stealing money from the future to give to weak companies so evolution stops working is a sure way to destroy the creative process. Companies that are smart and strong and able to adapt to the harsh times of the winter season deserve to survive. Those that cann't adapt deserve to go bankrupt.

    St. Louis FED paper:
    Aug 20, 2015. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: The Bottom Is In...Again [View article]
    TWTR broke 26, the IPO Price today. You must understand that we are in a global depression. Looking at one stock through a microscope does not work when you are in a global depression. There is nothing to lift the stock back up to "normal".
    Aug 20, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment