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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • SHILLER CYCLICAL PE CONFIRMS EIGHTEEN YEAR CYCLES OF GROWTH FOLLOWED BY DESTRUCTION [View instapost]
    Thanks, Flash.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan, A Failed Keynesian State? [View article]
    The problem with Greece's austerity was that it WAS NOT completed as the result of default. Austerity MUST be done while turning off the debt machine, and clearly not as a bargain to get more debt. Greece should have gone cold turkey, defaulted, and cut back on spending...in the interest of destroying debt. Until a nation destroys debt, they won't get back to Ground Zero, where the Business Cycle begins, no matter how much they suffer through self-denial.

    Austerity is self-denial on a major scale; but to claim self-denial when you are adding to your debt is insane. All Greece did was let the Big Banks take over and make the rules, which meant fulfilling Big Businesses plans to destroy Big Government; they were bribed with loans to destroy Big Government when Big Business got fatter and fatter off the money stolen from Greece's future.

    You have to let the bank's fail if you want austerity to work.
    Feb 21, 2015. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Trouble? [View article]
    THE BULL MARKET THAT IS NOT

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Those who know shudder to think that those whho do not know have so much power and are flying blind. Or as Bernanke said, referring to himself and Hank Paulson: "We're just flying by the seat of our pants, making things up as we go along."

    What happens when the 'stalling tactics' run out?
    Feb 21, 2015. 05:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Trouble? [View article]
    Nice article. Very similar crisis points as my own research:

    1911-1929: growth or inflation
    1929-1947: deflation or deconstruction
    1947-1965: growth or inflation
    1965-1983: deflation or deconstruction
    1983-2001: growth or inflation
    2001-2019: deflation or deconstruction

    Stocks and the economy are only effects of this process. To the ancient Greeks, Zeus/Jupiter (Je-Zeus) was the force of expansion, the Day-Cycle force; and Kronos/Saturn (or Satan) was the force of destruction, the Night-Cycle force.

    Isis will continue to get stronger, as one of the central deconstruction forces of this cycle. World communism was the deconstruction force from 1965-1983. World fascism was the deconstruction force from 1929-1947. The economy will 'get fixed' by time, when deconstruction transforms into reconstruction, when negative energy of matter gets transformed into positive energy of spirit.

    1983-2001: SPENDING CYCLE, DEBT CYCLE: lower interest rates to encourage growth in spending.

    2001-2019: SAVING CYCLE, DEBT DESTRUCTION CYCLE: raise interest rates to encourage growth in saving. We failed in this; because we think we know better. We don't. Instead of trying to hold on to a dying world, we should be following God's or Nature's laws and destroying bad debt with higher interest rates. We know better. We want to 'avoid pain' -- we want to keep what we gained in the last filling cycle.

    1983-2001: Filling-Up Cycle -- Winning Cycle
    2001-2019: Emptying-Out Cycle -- Losing Cycle

    Instead of facing the Losing Cycle 'like men' with courage and faith, we stole money from our grandchildren's future. And our debts continued to grow. Meaning horrible pain will lie ahead, including very likely World War III.

    This is the process of evolution. We build the world from 1983-2001; we destroy the world we built from 1983-2001 from 2001-2019, so we can build the world as a better model from 2019-2037. The Lord gives (1983-2001) and the Lord takes away (2001-2019). Humans are so proud of their mental abilities to 'control Nature'; sometimes pride, which the Greeks felt was the primal sin, hubris, gets in the way of one's ability to 'learn from' Nature. The proud man is the man who falls. In Greek Myth, pride is punished by Hekate, the Moon Goddess from Hell. In fact, Isis seems like Hekate, does it not. The severed heads; the captives burned alive. These are images from hell, are they not?

    As I say, Isis and all the Islamic (Allah is a Moon God, in fact) forces of world destruction just get stronger and stronger until 2019, when the Sun-God (Zeus-Jupiter) returns with the force of expansion.
    Feb 21, 2015. 02:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan, A Failed Keynesian State? [View article]
    3) The alternative was cutback in spending/borrowing. This would have curtailed growth enormously, and plunged the economy into deeper deflation. The result: recession, reduced tax receipts, lower GDP (especially lower nominal GDP through deflation) and the same or even higher debt/GDP. That's how they did it in Greece. Savage austerity reduced their economy by 25% with the result that debt/GDP is higher, despite a substantial haircut.

    The lesson is simple. If the private sector deleverages because of damaged balance sheets, you can let the economy plunge or you can replace the private expenditures with public ones until deleveraging is more or less complete. Both will increase debt/GDP ratio but the latter at least keeps the economy alive.
    ___
    In my view, this is the PROBLEM, this type of thinking. We MUST cut-back in Spending and Borrowing. There is a season for spending and borrowing; it's called the Business Cycle (1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001...). There is a subsequent, following season of SAVING and DEBT DESTRUCTION.

    We are damned by our one-sidedness, our fear of change. Look at nature, a spending growing season, with a harvest; then a period of darkness and rest and germination and gestation. SAVING; conservation of energy (energy is matter). SAVING MATTER.

    Two sides to the coin. We are one-eye blind, believing only in the growth side. We cannot grow all the time. Nature destroys in Autumn and Winter the forms it creates in the Spring and Summer.

    Nature fills up (Midnight to Noon; Winter to Summer) and it empties out (Noon to Midnight; Summer to Winter). We are afraid of the 'emptying out' phase. That's why the FED attempts to keep the filling going when the Business Cycle ends. Emptying out means destroying debt, not adding debt.

    We are so afraid of losing what we gained, that we are willing to destroy ourselves economically in order to save ourselves from economic ruin. But economic ruin is temporary. It is what Winter does. Deflation brings prices back down to Ground Zero. Ground Zero is the Earth. The Earth is where we begin every Business Cycle. 2019 is Ground Zero, as 1983 was, as 1947 was, as 1911 was....take this cycle back further and you see the same patterns: 18 years of growth, inflation, SPENDING AND DEBT ACCUMULATION; 18 years of nongrowth, deflation, SAVING AND DEBT DESTRUCTION. This is a 'law of nature'; and man does not need to save humanity from this law, because this law saves humanity from men.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan, A Failed Keynesian State? [View article]
    Well, it depends on which democracy. Democracy is the ideal government because it is an attempt at balancing the two sides, the criminals (our republicans) and the victims (our democrats). Both sides have a place at the table at least. We've carried out many capitalism-colonialism wars in the US despite democracy. So democracy is no guaranteed cure.

    Human nature is greedy and fearful and selfish. As long as we honor that side, the animal side of humanity, we suffer. That is the mentality that the world is a jungle, and it's every man for himself and God against all, the survival of the fittest. Is that reality, or simply one version of reality.

    The mind on one side; the soul on the other. The soul does not believe that it's every man for himself and God against all. The soul sees another reality. But we no longer believe in the soul's existence. That is one of our problems. We believe only in the animal-man, the one fighting for survival. The soul is a higher man. That's why the soul is the victim of the animal-man.
    Feb 20, 2015. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan, A Failed Keynesian State? [View article]
    Look at Japan's debt growth. Yes, you can buy 'growth' by borrowing or stealing money from the future and spending it today. That's how we raise our standard of living isn't it?

    The whole world is 'growing' (not growing) the same way. It's not real growth when its debt stolen from the future. My argument is not that Japan is the only fake economy, they are all fake economies now.

    I don't see a lot of real GDP growth in this chart:

    http://bit.ly/1DBwuGn
    Feb 20, 2015. 03:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan, A Failed Keynesian State? [View article]
    The Japanese crisis is not finished. They have spent money to mute the problem, to stall. But the actual deflation is still ongoing. Perhaps it will end with a whimpler 50 years from today; perhaps the world will decide that 80 years of SLOWWWWWWW deflation is preferable to 18 years of fast, ruthless deflation. Maybe not.

    The fact is, economic growth cannot occur until debt is destroyed. How many recessions has Japan been through since 1989. With all the spending Abe has forced on Japan, they have now contracted again -- and may critics are asking Abe today if he needs a fourth arrow -- or what?

    The central banks have failed in everything except transfering trillions to the richest people in the world, through stock market and real estate asset protection. And the tragedy is NOT over. Far from it.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan, A Failed Keynesian State? [View article]
    Interesting comment, Herb. Yes, Keynes has been co-opted.

    Here's something Keyes wrote that makes me think he has been rolling over in his grave "watching' central bankers misusing his ideas:

    "Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become “profiteers,” who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery." - John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920 printing, p235-236
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan, A Failed Keynesian State? [View article]
    Communism and fascism are equally repulsive. Fascism is the unbalanced capitalistic impulse of world-conquest. Communism is the unbalanced communalistic impulse of self-defense from the more powerful world-conquerors. Many of the extremes of communism come from the fear of being attacked. Of course, history shows us that aggressive fascists 'disguised' as capitalists, colonialists, and gold-seekers generally do attack smaller or defenseless nations in order to bribe their political leaders to let the fascists steal the weaker countries blind -- Vietnam shows that, China shows that, Cuba shows that.

    The balance, of course, is the goal. To be strong enough to defend onself, and to be moral enough not to steal other people's resources. The balance is hard to attain. The balance requires a well-developed sense of morality, to keep the thieves and the paranoid potential autocrats from gaining power.

    We should not pretend that communism happens in a vacuum. Communism is a response to crimes against humanity, sins against the poor, committed by those driven by greed and animated by technical superiority.

    "Life is nothing but a competition to be the criminal rather than the victim."
    Bertrand Russell

    The fascists are the criminals; the communists are the victims. At least in the beginning.
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Debt Bomb Remains A Stealth Candidate For Top Gray Swan Of 2015 [View article]
    If it is all based on economics, yes. And who was the previous great president? Truman-Eisenhower. Growth from 1947:1965. I guess you can thrown JFK in the mix. Before that: 1911-1929. Woodrow Wilson, Howard Taft, Calvin Coolidge. Not so sure about these guys being great presidents.

    FDR was a great president, even though he presided over a hellish season.

    Lincoln was a great president, although the same is true for him.

    You see what I'm saying. Great presidents are about more than simply riding the economic cycle higher. Managing the deep recession cycle may indicate a greater president, than handling the easy times, when the cycle lifts all boats.
    Feb 19, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Debt Bomb Remains A Stealth Candidate For Top Gray Swan Of 2015 [View article]
    Ben:
    I'm not ant-Chinese. But when I look at the BRICS, I don't see much that is positive. Brazil? Russia? India? China? South Africa?

    India gets a positive spin lately. Maybe India survives the strong Dollar march. But the strong Dollar is going to export deflation to the world. Which is alread deflated (deflating). We are heading into world war.

    You seem to feel it is your duty to defend China. But China built its entire growth on a cheap US Dollar, and massive borrowing. As the Dollar gains strength, developing nations are going to be hard-pressed to refinance debt is a more expensive Dollar, when exports are crashing and national economies are shrinking.


    http://bit.ly/1BR6aWR

    Please read if you are interested in what the strong dollar will do. Weak Dollar = inflation through borrowing; strong Dollar = deflation through default.
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Debt Bomb Remains A Stealth Candidate For Top Gray Swan Of 2015 [View article]
    Is the global economy NOT collapsing? If not, Ventureshadow, then I need a pair of your glasses. Seems like your glasses shield you from the shadow. WHERE is the global economy NOT collapsing?
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Debt Bomb Remains A Stealth Candidate For Top Gray Swan Of 2015 [View article]
    Shaduc: I agree, golden age under Clinton -- not BECAUSE of Clinton. It all depends where you fall on the Time circle.

    1974-1983: Autumn-Winter; Dusk-Midnight. end of Nixon; Carter. Death. DEFLATION
    1983-1992: Winter-Spring; Midnight-Dawn. Reagan/Bush. Rebirth. Struggle between inflation and deflation. REFLATION.
    1992-2001: Sprng-Summer; Dawn to Noon. Clinton. Inflation; unimpeded growth. INFLATION.
    2001-2010: Bush2;Obama. Noon is the peak. Summer-Autumn; Noon-Dusk. DISINFLATION.
    2010-2019: Autumn-Wiinter again; Dusk-Midnight. Obama. Death. DEFLATION.

    Clinton was not a great president, but he was blessed by time. Carter was a very good man; but he was cursed by time. Clinton rode the expansion; Carter rode the deflation down (the deflation of the world-idea). Obama too, riding the deflation of the world. History is a great wave. In terms of your success as a leader, a lot depends upon when you mount the great wave of time.

    It is best to 'mount the Dragon' in the REFLATION or INFLATION seasons.
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Crude Oil Bottom: Where To Look For Clues [View article]
    Gold stocks down; US Dollar consolidating, then up; US TBonds becoming oversold, short-term -- long term, up; oil, attempting to bottom in daily charts; no attempt to bottom in monthly charts.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 18, 2015. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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