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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    I agree absolutely with the first part of this surmise, especially about how highter interest rates benefit those who are most likely to buy things, the 99% instead of the 1%.

    The golden age of economic expansion is Spring to Summer in my time schedule: that is, 1920-1929; 1956-1965; 1992-2001; 2028-2037.....

    Higher interest rates also wipe out unproductive debt. Unproductive debt is suffocating the global economy.

    The Inflation-Cycle (1983-2001) is designed to increase spending and create a mountain of debt; the Deflation-Cycle (2001-2019; 1965-1983; 1929-1947) is designed to increase saving and destroy a mountain of debt. Inflation is designed to weaken the local currency in order to gain trading advantage; deflation is designed to strengthen the local currency in order to gain purchasing advantage.

    You are not a bad guy for wanting higher rates. You are a wise man (I almost wrote wise-guy, but that has a different connotation).

    It is not EITHER inflation OR deflation. It is BOTH inflation AND deflation, in an orderly sequence.

    Those who argue that the FED is saving us from deflation miss the point. Deflation is not the enemy. Deflation saves us from too much spending and too much debt. The FED is saving us from what will eventually save us. Why can't they see this. Because they are (rationalism is) one-eye blind. It thrives on polarity, on the EITHER-OR dichotony. Either on my side or against me. It creates a world that is EITHER-OR. Either capitalism or communism. Eiither scientific or superstitious. Either moral or immoral. Does EITHER Summer OR Winter make sense? Summer is fertile; Winter is not fertile. But Summer flows into (and becomes) Autumn and then Winter. Rationalims views the world as stationary objects, truths, fixed realities fighting fixed oppositions. But this fixed object view of the world is broken; processes flow into processes; Inflation flows into Deflation; Deflation flows back into Inflation, like Winter flows back into Summer.
    Sep 18 10:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Perhaps if everything is in a bubble, nothing appears to be in a bubble.
    ___

    RT, I think you have solved everything.
    Sep 18 10:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Causes Recessions? [View article]
    Odd. The creation of the FED, the US Central Bank, has not cured the US of its regularly scheduled bank panics. What good is the FED?
    Sep 16 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    I agree, Rickeespal. Wall Street and Washington are keeping us from recovering.
    Sep 15 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    I didn't answer one of your questions, Philip. Are the Chinese capable of governing themselves? Of course they are. Democracy is a very special form of government, one based in and dependent upon a propserous and politically powerful middle class. Where there is no middle class there is no democracy. The beauty of the middle class as an instrument of political policy, is that is is the buffer between and the leader of mortal enemies -- the rich and the poor. In our system, recently at least, the Republicans represented the rich and the Democrats represented the poor. And the middle class sided with the rich when the society needed rebirth (such as 1983-2001) and the middle class sided with the poor when the society needed to close the wealth gap and to develop a soul (such as 1965-1983). Today, the middle class should be siding with the poor. But the rich are trying to destroy the middle class now. If a society successfully destroys the Life Principle , the Middle Principle, then civil war, social chaos, and political tyranny result. There clearly are Asian cultures that have embraced this model: Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand (sort of)... Will China? Perhaps some form of it, as the middle class grows in power and demands comfort more than truth. That is another problem with the democratic model. The two mortal enemies believe in truth from the perspective they carry and defend. The middle class/middle principle honors peace and comfort more, wealth, the gentle life, which peace, like everything in the universe, decays into its opposite.

    Democracy is best, although imperfect. But democracy decays, breaks down, usually due to economic destruction, and then the two principles of Chaos remain, without a referee or a buffer. The Greeks said the end and the beginning of the universe was chaos. And then creation (the Creator) ordered chaos. This implies we have to go through the chaos of war to get the next creation of the world. It seems clear to me that we are going in to this world-ending world-begetting chaos as we speak.
    Sep 14 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    Shaduc: You seem angry; and you seem to want vengeance. That was very much like the Japanese in the 1930's. They wanted to destroy the West; they wanted vengeance. For many good reasons. But look what happened.
    Sep 14 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    I know Vietnam better than China. In Vietnam the family IS the safety net. Yes, we have entitlement payouts that help us slide toward death. But in Vietnam there is a much deeper general poverty but also a much deeper familial protection.

    I'm not sure the state can protect people well. I think we have welfare, and that helps us limp into the twilight. But I'm not sure we have enough love as we go forward toward that good night.

    In Vietnam, old people are everywhere, young people are everywhere, middle aged people are everywhere. They all live together; and in the same house until they die. It isn't perfect. Families can be tyrannical and oppressive, and often are. But old people are respected in Vietnam, in their families, and in the society in general. I don't think we have nearly the kind of respect for the aged in the West.

    But I also think this is changing in Asia, as the Asian ape the West and chase money and modernism.
    Sep 14 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    Communism, and communalism, is the wrath of God, when all the plants in the human garden get torn down back to seed and buried close to the common earth. It is the Winter of the social history. It is not fun. It is painful. But it is necessary.

    We have it in the West also. Remember the Dark Ages after the Fall of Rome. Another long Dark Age is coming to the West after the American Empire falls also. The Dark Ages are the communalist time, the Winter, the seed time, the destruction of form. Watch the cities vanish. Watch civilizations grow thin and vanish; and watch cultures take their place, closer to the earth, of the earth earthy.
    Sep 14 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    Actually, Ben, every country has cycles in which the group needs predominate. 1929-1947 in America was about group rights. 1965-1983 was also about group rights. 2001-2019 is also supposed to be about group rights, although the central banks are trying to prevent this.

    Individual rights and freedoms during the easy seasons, the Day-Cycles. Group rights of survival during the hard seasons, the Night-Cycles.
    Sep 14 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    Is what is good for General Motors good for America? That was a very common saying in 1940 and 1950. I think the anwer is no. What's good for America must also be good for General Motors. If lower salaries for CEO's and lower bonueses and higher salaries for workers is good for America, then it is also going to have to be what is good for General Motors.

    The country comes first. All the other so-called religions, such as capitalism, come after.
    Sep 14 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    I think the people in HK consider themselves as leading the rest of China toward a better future. More Western, yes. Perhaps this is a flaw. Perhaps HK has been poisoned by Western ideas. But you see why HK cannot 'wake up' and accept its Chinese status. They want to lead China toward a better 'way of life' -- less traditional, more universal.

    I do like what you say about HK being finally freed of the British. Similarly, I'm gad Vietnam is finaly free of the French and then the American directorate. I agree. Asia does not need to kow-tow to the West any longer. Of course, that was the spirit of Japan in the 1930's, and we all know where that led. (It was also the spirit of the fascists in Europe, finally freed of the Jewish modernist ideas that were suffocating it, ideas such as universal sufferage, sexual equality, humanism and racial equality.) Do you see where we are heading?
    Sep 14 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    I think our focus on this sight is more about thinking clearly than it is merely about investment. Thinking clearly is the basis of successful investment. Thinking clearly is the basis for successful government. We have not been thinking clearly lately (that is my premised). That's why we are in the state we are in -- and, in my mind, we are not in a very good state. (Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.)

    The FED has stacked the cards in favor of Wall Street. But the rest of the world still seems to be in a downward spiral heading toward more chaos.
    Sep 14 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    I'm not sure the whole world needs to be based on the Western democratic principles. The East is the East; the North is the North; the West is the West; the South is the South. Each has different natures, perspectives, duties, aspirations, opportunities. We make a mistake trying to make all the people in the world in our own natures.

    In fact, the West has much that we love and value; but we also have the negative side that goes with the positive side. It is great to be young and growing up in the West; but it is not so great to be old in the West. It is much better to be old in the East than in the West. If Asians decide they all have to live like the West, they will have to start building more insane asylums, drug clinics, prisons...and they will have to build also more warehouses in which to hide people when they get old. That is what we do in the West. We love productivity, Youth. But when people stop being productive, old, our inclination is to throw them away, like yesterday's newspapers. Too much worship of youth, change, progress is unbalanced. For where the is progress, there is also a shadow. Where there is freedom, there is a loss of freedom in the opposite dimension. Individualism has a great creative light carried with it; but the shadow is alienation and loneliness and the loss of the community of family. Asia doesn't have to be like the West. Norway doesn't have to be like Africa.

    Our ego always wants to be right. If we are right, then we are living on the moral and successful side of the equation, on the opposite side of all that we despise, failure, darkness, laziness, ignorance. We need to conquer ourselves before we attempt to conquer the world.
    Sep 14 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    You are right, Ben. China does not want war. But it does want to bully people into a surrender to their will. Isn't that always the way wars begin?
    Sep 14 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    Any time someone reduces what other people see to 'garbage', and elevates what he sees to 'the only truth there is', we have an ego heralding its own greatness of vision, with an almost guaranteed one-eyed blindness resulting. The half of the world this ego sees he sees quite clearly. But he does not even understanding that the other half exists.

    Demographics are part of Japan's problem, a loss of competitiveness, and a dystunctional corporate/government system. But these are not the spiritual problems that are housing Japan; they are the extrernal, causal problems that reason recognizes. I think these are much less significant. Plato says move from the universals (the spiritual truths) to the particulars (the resultant material truths). What you call 'garbage' is, in fact, more connected to the universals -- and what you call the essentials I would call the shadows of the reality.

    Japan's demographics can be cured in one generation. Why are Japanese not having children? This is a spiritual issue. Why are young Japanese afraid to become adults? This is a spiritual issue. What is the common cure for a generation or two that is afraid to become adults? Trial by fire, through war. Lack of competitiveness is a capitalistic euphemism for a lack of spirit. Japan has been a slave of America ever since it lost the war. The Japanese won't speak of this, especially with foreigners -- but every Japanese knows, deep inside, that Japan's spirit is sick because of American dominance over their culture.

    The world is sick because of American dominance. As far as empire's go, America is relatively benign, enticing with money and games and technology and flesh and music and the pleasure-maching. But this does not mean it is not suffocating to indigenous cultures.

    Japan is twitching toward war because it knows it needs war to regenerate its own true nature, and its own true non-modern culture. Japan is not a child to be protected by America for ever. Of course Japanese don't want to grow up, they can't grow up, because America is keeping them in the child status of its protectorate.

    Japan can clearly be dangerous as an adult, no question. But the problems you mentioned, which in my mind are insigificant, capitalist dogma, can be wiped away very quickly. The spiritual problems guide a nation in and out of strength and manifestation.
    Sep 14 08:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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