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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • Has The Fed Caused An Economic Slowdown? [View article]
    And you believe GDP is the appropriate measure to use? Why?

    If you are REALLY interested, read this book or my other posts for more information:

    One must have an open heart to learn something new. Embrace, absorb. If you simply wish to defend yourself against a different perspective, that is quite easy.

    You (and GDP) look only at phenomenon through one eye (left-brain), so called reason -- which is as much rationalization as anything else. The special feature of the right-brain is pattern-recognition. If your right brain is not as developed as your left brain then you will not be able to see this other perspective.

    In truth, left-brain is the Day-Cycle mentality (expansion and causality: how everything is unique -- taking apart the world to study how the parts work). Right-brain is the Night-Cycle mentality (contraction and metaphor: how everything is alike -- putting the broken parts back into a whole again to understand it as a whole, how everything works together, which requires pattern recognition). To be immortal -- powerful in both worlds, the engineering world and the poetic world -- one must develop both brains. In a very real sense, we live in the Day-Brain during the periods I call Day-Cycles (1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001) and we cross over into the Night-Brain (Right-Brain) during what I call Night-Cycles (1929-1947; 1965-1983; 2001-2019...).

    GDP is about spending only -- it is moved in a positive sense by spending. If this is the whole truth of economics then it would make sense to believe in GDP and keep borrowing money to spend more continuously all the time, and watch ourselves become bankrupt through debt. But spending is only one half of the cycle; saving is the other half. And GDP is against saving; saving damages GDP. So economists assum spending is negative for the economy. But this is insanity. Saving Cycles emphasize conservation of energy, which is what Night also emphasizes: sleeping helps us to restore our energy by NOT SPENDING IT.

    GDP is 1/2 the picture; but it misses entirely the other half of the picture.

    Saving Cycles (2001-2019 should be a Saving Cycle) helps to wipe out bad debt, which keeps us from recovering -- and it helps to buld a safe investment nest egg through higher interest rates which becomes the fuel for the next real expansion.

    The picture I am providing will never be taught at the university -- which is one eye blind -- and believes that if we only get it right finally we can have expanson for ever, and happiness for ever, and no poverty and no diminished light, no darkness. My view is that the darkness, the deep rest cycles are necessary and rejuvenating. We need periods of rest; this is when we think about what we want the next expansion to be, what ideas can guide us. The Night-Cycles clarify the ideas that we try to build when we wake up again for the practical cycle, the Day-Cycle, of attempting to build the world again according to our ideas.
    Apr 19, 2015. 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Fed Caused An Economic Slowdown? [View article]
    If the FED were doing its job properly they would steer the economy.

    1911: lower rates
    1929: raise rates
    1947: lower rates
    1965: raise rates
    1983: lower rates
    2001: raise rates
    2019: lower rates

    Nothing would be easier than to follow this process, by which the FED encourages growth during the growth season; and discourages debt bubbles and encourages wealth-through-saving during non-growth seasons. The problem is the FED wants to enact new laws of perpetual growth. They don't want to follow nature's seasons of expansion followed by contraction. They want to willfully make the perfect world where wealth and happiness continually grow, exponentially.

    If the human ego could accept these seasons of growth and rest, and follow them with policy, we would have much less chaos and much less fear and loathing. Learn how Nature works. Man, Humans, are also part of nature; are also 'imprisoned' in Nature's laws.

    This knowledge, of course, accepts expansions and depressions are part of the picture we need to accept. The human ego wants only the good side. It does not want to experience depression, loss. Growth Seasons are the 'filling up' side of the equation; and Non-Growth Seasons are the 'emptying out' side. It is very difficult for people to accept the 'emptying out' side and to embrace it. We sleep and dream every night, which is an emptying out process that leaves the material world motionless (relatively) and invisible (relatively). Depressions are merely the night stages of our historical reality. The material world gets depressed; and the spiritual world (the dream world) gets inflated. The material world and the spiritual world work together. When one rests, the other works. When when inflates with energy, the other deflates with energy.

    The FED's first loyality, and only loyalty, is to the banks, the internantional banking system. And that's the main reason it cannot do its job properly. If it did, the banks would lose all the profits on loans taken out (the art of seduction through fear of missing out) AFTER the business cycle ended in 2001.
    Apr 19, 2015. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Fed Caused An Economic Slowdown? [View article]
    It isn't just economics that follows this law. This is a spiritual law that the material world conforms to, but often does not realize the effects of this law. Being unconscious of the law does not make the law less effective, it makes US less effective. Of course we do not need to follow the Law; we do not need to follow moral laws either, but they exist because breaking them causes us pain. We don't need to follow the laws of physics either. We can jump off a cliff if we like.

    The Laws of Physics are reflections of the Laws of Metaphysics. The Laws of Nature are the Thoughts of God. Economics is guided by metaphysical laws; of course we can ignore them, at our own risk. We discover laws of Nature in the hope that we can learn from nature, and follow Nature's guidance.

    The law of 18-year Expansion (Inflation) followed by 18-year Contractions (Deflations) is a spiritual law and happen at every level of society -- and is not a law, per se, about economics -- is more a law about expansion and deflation as spiritual realities. For every inflation there is an equal and opposite deflation.

    The impulse is to dismiss this claim, with an emotional plea for chaos and freedom. But one should study the claim first, if one is to give it a fair hearing -- and this suggests one must be willing to set aside prejudices, first, and consider alternatives. Nature has physical material seasons that guide it; Nature also has metaphyisical seasons that guide it.
    Apr 19, 2015. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Fed Caused An Economic Slowdown? [View article]
    The FED did not cause the economy to collapse. The economy expands for 18 years; and then it contracts for 18 years. This is the LAW. So, in 2001, the business cycle ended, growth ended. This was not caused by the FED.

    What the FED did do however is that it pretended this LAW could be circumvented by stealing (or borrowing) money from the future in order to pretend this LAW was not true. So, instead of beginning to slowly raise rates in 2001, they lowered rates, and continued to lower rates -- so we have not even begun the process of deleveraging and deflating that is necessary in order to get to the new organic growth period again. The FED cannot save us from deflation cycles (no matter what Bernanke wrote in his dissertation) -- but the FED did the worst thing it could have done, which is ignore reality, and opt for the sweet dream of perpetual growth, perpetual debt growth, and the illusion that debt does not matter.

    1911-1929: Growth, Spending Cycle
    1929-1947: Non-Growth, Saving Cycle
    1947-1965: Growth, Spending Cycle
    1965-1983: Non-Growth, Saving Cycle
    1983-2001: Growth, Spending Cycle
    2001-2019: Non-Growth, Saving Cycle
    Apr 19, 2015. 04:23 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Start Buying Canada [View article]
    More food for thought on USD.
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Start Buying Canada [View article]
    This is a HUGE if. I looked at the monthly USDCAD chart. It looks like a USD top, such as 2009. But the fundamentals are SO different today, than in 2009. 2009 was the launch of the FED's "let's kill the Dollar program". ZIRP AND QE were just baby thoughts in the mind of the FED. Today, ZIRP is ending (perhaps) and QE is gone. Higher rates should boost USD strength -- today two FED members (Lacker and ?Bullock) said higher rates cannot be put off, even if the markets want the FED to continue napping -- the Canadian bank may not continue to lower rates, but are they ready to raise rates? Not likely.

    The charts look like a top. But the fundamentals look like a pause in USD strength. Let's not forget that a strong USD suddenly is in America's interest since the war on Russia (and other Dollar-Basher conspiratorialists) will use further weakness in the USD to attack it as the world's King Currency. Suddenly the FED has to DEFEND the Dollar, after years of demolishing it. If the FED defends the Dollar with higher rates, oil tanks, and oil commodity countries like Russia, China, Australia, Canada continue to be broken on the wheel. Too bad about Australia and Canada -- but Russia and China and Brazil are all (apparently) American (and Dollar) enemies and must be broken economically.

    We are in the first stages of World War III. And a strong Dollar injures our enemies. (This is simply another layer to the fundamental picture, but potentially THE most important layer.)
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Among The Worst In March Too [View article]
    I agree, DiscoDogman. Fascism is a response to chaos and is supported by those wishing for law and order. Fascism happens because the mass wants it to happen. Fascism PRESERVES the old older. Communism overturns the old order. Fascism believes in the Past; it's leaders promise to take their people back to the Golden Age when everything was good. Communism believes in the future, sees the past as something that needs to be overthrown.

    Fascism preserves the ruling class. Communism, on the other hand, executes the ruling class, and sends them into exile; and eventually replaces the ruling class with a new ruling class of communists. Much different results, in fact.

    Fascism is regression. Communism is revolution. Either way, Chaos results, and tyranny of law and order is the prescription, a police state being the result of either extreme. Fascism is racist in that it provides salvation to a race or a tribe or a nation to the exclusion of all others, and preserves the class system it honors. Communism is classist in that it provides salvation to one class (the poor, the international poor) to the exclusion of the other class, the rich, the enemy, and proceeds to make everyone equal, everyone poor -- which is the starting point of a new incarnation, a new beginning of a cycle.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Among The Worst In March Too [View article]
    I think you make good points, discodogman. QE and ZIRP have kept home prices elevated (and rents also), and continue to do so -- which is why millions more Americans are now on food stamps. Could not agree more that it is stealing from future and current young Americans. In fact, what I write says very much that: " The central bank is stealing money from Aemrica's future and giving it to the world's rich."

    If you look at a chart of who is doing best today, with the gap between the rich and poor growing daily, clearly the rich are doing better than the middle class and poor.

    Since 1979, the wealth of the top 1% of Americans is up 281%; the wealth of the bottom fifth of the population is up 16%.

    Yes, by keeping housing propped up, and by supporting pensions, poor and middle-class people have also benefitted. But by keeping housing propped up, young Americans now cannot afford to buy overpriced housing. In fact, who will be able to afford this overpriced housing if housing is still unaffordable, even with ZIRP? Perhaps when interest rates go negative, we will all be able to buy housing with negative-interest-rate loans -- maybe the banks will pay us to take out loans.

    The idea that only Marxism has a little man behind the curtain is false. Fascism also has a little man behind a curtain. Or in front of the curtain. State control comes in more than one form. We need to remember that, as our future is more likely Fascist than Marxist. We are already trying to start World War III in Ukraine. We need to have the correct lens on our glasses if we hope to understand what is coming next.

    Starting a war with Russia has been a terminal mistake for at least two western fascist empires, Nazi Germany and Napoleonic France. Do you think our leaders study history? I'm not sure they study anything, in fact, except the art of expediency.

    Would Americans be doing better without socialism for the rich instituted by the central bank? Perhaps not. But we would be closer to real recovery than we are today because a real deflation takes us down toward a renewed organic ecnomic growth, and does not keep us 'elevated' in a fake recovery that has no foundation. We are merely delaying the inevitable deflation by pumping out money from the future to deny our reality: what goes up must come down.

    You can check some of my other articles if you wish to explore my theories on inevitable 18-year expansions followed always by 18-year deflations. So, my view is: you don't get the good side without the shadow side. We're just lying to ourselves, and stealing from the future.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Among The Worst In March Too [View article]
    I can agree with that, Lamont. Financialized Capitalism is when the Treasury and the FED provide free 'bridge-loan' funding for capitalism to survive depressions; and neo-feudalism is the result of these policies. Socialism for the rich.

    Here's a description of 'economic fascism' from THE CONCISE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ECONOMICS: 'Fascismby Sheldon Richman":

    "Fascism embodied corporatism, in which political representation was based on trade and industry rather than on geography. In this, fascism revealed its roots in syndicalism, a form of socialism originating on the left. The government cartelized firms of the same industry, with representatives of labor and management serving on myriad local, regional, and national boards—subject always to the final authority of the dictator’s economic plan. Corporatism was intended to avert unsettling divisions within the nation, such as lockouts and union strikes. The price of such forced “harmony” was the loss of the ability to bargain and move about freely..."

    I admit we have a way to go to reach real corporate fascism, but we seem to be headed that direction, certainly more than toward Marxism.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Among The Worst In March Too [View article]
    Moon, Karl Marx or Groucho Marx?

    In all seriousness, calling this perversions of Capitalism a form of communism or socialism is silly. This is quite common on the internet blogs, in fact -- we have been taught to hate communism; so anything that is evil and dastardly we associate with communism (in this country).

    When Communism really takes over, the rich people flee the country and the leaders of the business community get arrested and often executed. Not much of that happening here. What is happening here is not Marx-ism in any sense of the word. The central bank is stealing money from Aemrica's future and giving it to the world's rich. This is clearly not the plan of Marxists anywhere, stealing money from the future to keep the capitalists in power.

    Such references to socialism or communism are silly. Our central banks are providing socialism for the rich -- FASCISM, in fact. The New Greek government is reeling to the left -- and they are finding ways to cut the debt payment to European banks. When America starts cutting banks out of the picture, then this will be creeping communism or socialism. Until then it remains good old American fascism.
    Apr 15, 2015. 03:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The AIIB One Day Matter? [View article]
    I agree with that. EVERYTHING Cramer says is too long. He should be under the Five Second Rule.
    Apr 15, 2015. 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banking Refuted In One Blog- Thanks Ben! [View article]
    The FED is NOT supposed to micro-manage the economy. They are supposed to lead. They should be thinking in 36-year blocks. Not trying to makes sure stocks rise tomorrow and yields fall the next day.

    This FED process and procedure has been in place for many years, under democrats and republicans alike. The banks run America, not the politicians. The FED is an instrument of bank power. But now the FED has also become the last line of defense of the American way of life -- hence, the micro-managing. Since 1987, the FED has been micro-managing stocks, guarding against plunging stocks, manipulating markets.

    Obama should have unloaded Bernanke. He should have let Wall Street fall. He should have let Wall Street take the blame for the global collapse. Instead, he went along with the cover up. In 1998, Clinton gave Wall Street the power it had wanted since the 1930's, the power to cheat and steal and create another great money blow-off, followed by a depression. Clinton got mountains of money. He sold the Democrats to Wall Street. Obama didn't have the guts to take the Democrats back. So Bernanke stayed; and Wall Street got off; and America's future generations' money was stolen (in the form of QE and ZIRP) and given away to the rich, to corporations, to bankers and banks all over the world, to create comfort today and avoid the depression for a little while longer.

    The Democrats are guilty of what the Republicans have been doing for centuries. Worshipping Wall Street and getting paid-off in the process.
    Apr 14, 2015. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Crude Bottomed? [View article]
    I think that is the real problem economists have, in fact. We are trying to use a system of infinite expansion (unlimited growth) in a context that is not one of infinite expansion.

    Everything in nature grows and then rests. It is my belief that the global economy grows for 18 years; and then rests for 18 years. So during these extended rest periods, we panic, and refuse to understand that our schematic does not fit the reality.

    I think these periods can be named Growth Periods (or Spending Seasons) and non-Growth Periods (or Saving Seasons). We CANNOT grow during Saving Seasons. During Saving Seasons the creative energy that builds the world (during Growth Seasons) rests, sleeps, dreams, abstracts itself, becomes (to the material world) entropic energy, destructive energy. The world becomes a dreamscape during these seasons, with much nightmare also, as the material world is deconstructed.

    During Growth Seasons we are supposed to Spend (expenditure of energy during the Day-Cycle) and during Non-Growth Seasons or Nights we are supposed to save (conserve our energy).

    Depressions are the true nature of Night-Cycles. Sleep time. Inflations (Economic evolution) are the true nature of Day-Cycles. Waking time. Progresss by Day; rest by Night.

    Look at the Twentieth Century:

    ..1893-1911: Entropic Non-Growth Saving Season
    1911-1929: Creative Growth Spending (expenditure of enegy) Season
    1929-1947: Entropic Non-Growth Saving (conservation of energy) Season
    1947-1965: Creative Growth Spending (expenditure of enegy) Season: REBUILDING OF THE MATERIAL WORLD
    1965-1983: Entropic Non-Growth Saving (conservation of energy) Season: DECONSTRUCITON OF THE MATERIAL WORLD
    1983-2001: Creative Growth Spending (expenditure of enegy) Season: REBUILDING OF THE MATERIAL WORLD
    2001-2019: Entropic Non-Growth Saving (conservation of energy) Season: DECONSTRUCITON OF THE MATERIAL WORLD
    2019-2037: Creative Growth Spending (expenditure of enegy) Season: REBUILDING OF THE MATERIAL WORLD

    You can run these cycles back in history and you will be amazed by what you see. I call them Day-Cycles (building the world) and Night-Cycles (destroying the world)...

    As such, attempting to overlay a matrix of perpetual growth and infinite expansion on this disciplined dualistic reality is doomed to fail. Resisting the destruction of a 'finished' world through stealing money from the future to protect bad debt from the Old World is the opposite of what is needed.

    Faith that the Day will return, and creation energy will return at the end of the stated destruction should be our understanding. That is why central banks are failing. They do not recognize the underlying reality. Perpetual Growth is an illusion. And we are stubbornly attempting to force this idea onto the matrix, using our will. But this is doomed to fail.

    Debt is a mechanism for growth. But debt becomes an obstacle to growth. Debt in the non-Growth period is an obstacle to growth. It traps peopole in matter, debt, the past, suffocating them. Non-Growth periods are Saving Seasons and higher interest rates drive the Saving Seasons, as lower rates drive the Spending Seasons. We should have begun slowly raising rates in 2001; rates should be high in 2019, when the Saving Season ends. And rates should begin to come down from very high levels in 2019, to fuel the new expansion.

    Remember Volcker's jacking up rates in the early 1980's. He did in 2-3 years what should have been done slowly and steadily from 1965-1983. Higher rates help to build a safe wealth of the common Americans which acts as a nest-egg for investment during the new Growth Season (1983...and also 2019, upcoming).

    The world is a system of thought, a divine idea. Because we are now 'scientific' in our thinking instead of 'philosophical' we believe we have left behind all the old conceptions of the past. We have not. Science needs phiilosophy because Science is very good at taking the world apart to understand it as parts but not very good at putting the world back together to understand it again as a whole. Philosophy does this.

    During the past non-growth Seasons the world has produced very clear manifest forces for world deconstruction: 1929-1947: world fascism, German, Japanese fascism; 1965-1983: world communism; 2001-2019: religious fascism, Islamic world terror. These forces deconstruct the built material world, so it can be created as a newer model. These two forces, Creation and Destruction, are actually working together, although few realize this.

    The Creative Force is weak and frustrated and broken during the Non-Growth Seasons, battered, and comes under attack. My prediction is that the forces of world deconstruction will become even more powerful through 2019, which is the apex (the top of the mountain, or Midnight, from the Creative Perspective) of deconstruction energies. Isis will get stronger; resistance to Isis will get weaker; resistance to American world leadership will become more vocal and more belligerant, as it did in 1983.

    Britain and America (Thatcher and Reagan) came very close to war with Russian in 1983, even so much as having the Queen of England prepare and practice a speech to the English people announcing that World War III had begun. We are close to World War III today. The West is weakening. The West is feeling desperate. Russia is being attacked financially and politicially with fury. Yet Putin gets stronger. He will get stronger through 2019. Let's hope we can avoid another world war. I'm not sure we will be able to.

    Debt is a symbol of matter. The building of the material world requires debt, which becomes a kind of shadow of the concrete world. In 1929, the world's total debt to GDP was obscene. World War II was a manifestation of the debt destruction through destruction of physical reality. In 1965 we had almost no debt. Inflation (visible inflation) was caused by rising wages. Today (and in 1929) we have invisible inflation; debt is invisibile inflation. We destroyed the physical world literally in 1929-1947, because of our debt structure was massive and unmanagable; war is a symbolic destruction of this imprisonment in matter. I believe we will also destroy the phyisical world in this cycle also, a symbolic destruction again of our imprisonment in matter.
    Apr 13, 2015. 11:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Crude Bottomed? [View article]
    It is, when there is no debt. We had very high inflation in the 1970's because we had no debt. But with massive debt, it is not possible to create real price inflation. Look how hard Japan, America, Europe, have tried to create inflation. But deflation is tied to debt. Deflation still is winning.

    If we want economic growth, we have to destroy debt first.

    130% total debt to GDP seems to be neutral or ground zero for growth. We are at 330-350% total debt to GDP.
    Apr 13, 2015. 09:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Crude Bottomed? [View article]
    I agree. And the only thing I can see reversing the Dollar is more recession, and more QE from the FED. With all the nations of the world attempting to weaken their currency for trade pricing advantage, and with China's economy weakening and devaluation being talked about, and with Europe's dismantling of the Greek Brick in the wall, I don't see much impetus for non-Dollar currency strength.

    If we sink into another leg down of the global economy, then we will see negative interest rates -- and this will help gold take over as the world currency -- something the central banks will try to avoid at all costs.

    A strong Dollar is necessary to fight the war against Russia and against those governments seeking to derail the Dollar as the Universal King Currency -- the war on Russia is also a war on Oil -- and the strong Dollar helps the US win this war. The FED won't be eager to help America lose this war, and have the US Dollar defeated by upstarts like Russia and China.

    Eventually, currencies again lashing themselves again to gold, once this madness of inflation and over-inflation and continuing over-inflation and negative rates destroy all the world currencies. This new-normal is getting very threatening.
    Apr 13, 2015. 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment