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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • More on Philip Morris (PM) Q2 earnings: The strong dollar hurt results with EPS of $1.30 off 4.4% Y/Y, but excluding currency movement, EPS would have been $1.37, up a hair from last year. Cigarette shipping volume of 228.9B units off 3.9% Y/Y. FY2013 EPS guidance is revised down to $5.43-$5.53 vs. the Street at $5.55. Unfavorable currency movement is expected to cost about $0.31/share. CC at 9ET. (PR[View news story]
    Bad weather too. It was cold somewhere, at some time. This kept people from getting to the store to buy cigarettes on time.
    Jul 18 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fluor: 19% Upside In 2013 [View article]
    Getting a short-sell signal on FLR today at 61.27. 50 seems more likely in the near term than 70.
    Jul 18 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Solid But Not Spectacular Employment Report [View article]
    A lot of jobs added in bartending and restaurant waiters, but where is the growth in full time-jobs with benefits? Of course, Wall Street does not want to grow full-time jobs with benefits -- they want China and Mexico to fill needs for those jobs.

    Head in the sand?
    Jul 6 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
    1997. YES, Clinton also abandoned the traditional role of the Democratic Party to represent America's poor -- and to leave the Republicans to be the Party of Wall Street. He did this for many reasons, mainly so the Democrats could have deep-money pockets come election time. The problem with this move now is that no party representes the party of America's poor; and the Wall Street Banks now own both political parties -- there is no attempted balance. We need a new party, not the Tea Party, which is simply the radical fringe of the Republicans -- fold the Democrats in with the Replicans -- and a new party needs to represent America's poor with policies that will strip away all the things that Clinton gave away to the Wall Street Banks.
    Jul 6 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
    Survival of the fittest is not the entire story. Survival of the most adaptable is actually a closer description. The dinosaurs dominated the world for many years. Now they are birds.

    Do we want to live in the animal kingdom or in the spiritual kingdom? That's an issue here. Darwin describes animal evolution. But do we want to live in a world where monsters and bullies are admired because they can get whatever they want through intimidation and violence? I don't want to live in that world. That's not the world-view I am going to choose. Wait until the civil war comes and everyone is armed and people are dying randomly every day and then tell me that's the world you like.
    Jul 6 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
    Gratian. Seems like you are ready for Secession From the Beast, Secession from New York and Washington.
    Jul 6 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke 'Transparent' About His Lack Of Self-Confidence [View article]
    Thank you for writing this, John. I agree with you. Bernanke has been flying 'by the seat of his pants', making things up as he goes along. He has admitted as much.

    Bernanke started to get scared about 6 months ago when his friend Mishhkin (et. al) wrote a Fed sponsored paper on what was likely to happen to the Fed balance sheet if interest rates rose. Mishking (et.al) wrote that the Fed balance sheet could be wiped out several times over and the Fed Chair might have to go crying to the US Treasury for protection -- and they also wrote that interest rates would begin rising in 2013. Bernanke never asked himself what will I do if this depression is not solved by my policies, assuming that his policies would work and lead to a recovery. Now no one wants to buy US Treasuries for 2% or less and he can't keep buying all the Treasuries the world doesn't want to keep interest rates low. Can he keep spending $295 billion per month until 2030, just to keep rates down? No.

    I see rates above 20% in 2019, when the depression is scheduled to hit rock bottom.
    Jun 28 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The post-FOMC slide looks set to continue at the open with S&P 500 (SPY) futures -0.9% and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -1%. Markets around the globe all closed sharply in the red overnight and Europe is off more than 2%. There's no flight to fixed income either, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to fly higher, now at 2.43%. TLT -1.9%, TBT +4.6% premarket. [View news story]
    BBro: This will be more than a 5% correction. Interest rates are going above 20% again, like they did in the 1980's under Volcker. This will crash stocks, bonds, housing and commodities.
    Jun 20 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rogoff And Reinhart On Austerity And Debt: The Current Financial Situation [View article]
    Freddy: I love your posts. My modeling suggest it's much closer to 2019 than 2024. Remember what Volcker did in 1982-3? We should have begun raising interest rates in 2001, slowly and steadily, drying up the debt-inflation that we accrued during the Business Cycle Growth Phase 1983-2001. We did not. Now we are paying for it.

    Several more things have to happen. 1) Gold needs to reverse and climb relentlessly through 2018 or 2019; 2) the Fed needs to respond by jacking up rates. Volcker jacked them up to 23%. This time rates may go even highter.

    Love your posts.
    Michael
    May 31 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • D.R. Horton's Stock Is Set To Soar [View article]
    Watch out for higher interest rates. DHI won't roar if interest rates soar.
    May 31 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's core CPI dropped for the sixth consecutive month in April as prices fell 0.4%, indicating how far the Bank of Japan has to go in achieving inflation of 2%. However, it's still very early in the game, while it's worth noting that overall CPI rose 0.3% on month and that core CPI for the Tokyo area grew a preliminary 0.1% in May, the first increase in over four years. [View news story]
    Early in the game? This is the fifth generation of Japanese QE since 1989. It's late in the game.
    May 31 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan: More Output, Less Deflation [View article]
    What? Japan's price inflatino fell in April .4%, for the sixth consecutive month. In other words, deflation increased.

    ***

    Japan's core CPI dropped for the sixth consecutive month in April as prices fell 0.4%,...

    Friday, May 31, 2:03 AM ET
    Japan's core CPI dropped for the sixth consecutive month in April as prices fell 0.4%, indicating how far the Bank of Japan has to go in achieving inflation of 2%. However, it's still very early in the game, while it's worth noting that overall CPI rose 0.3% on month and that core CPI for the Tokyo area grew a preliminary 0.1% in May, the first increase in over four years.
    May 31 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Avoid AVT, Inc. [View article]
    Wow. Impressive report.
    May 28 09:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Industry Collapsing Into Q2 [View article]
    Free money for loans to buy cars. Debts go up, yes. But salaries are not going up.
    May 18 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere's Second Quarter Earnings Preview [View article]
    Where would you buy Deere? Do you have a buy-zone price target?
    May 11 01:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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