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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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    Thanks, G_D. I haven't had access to Stauss/Howe's books (I can't find them here in Vietnam)...but that was my thinking also: 18 years being a generation. Your point of one generation being 'dominant' and the succeeding generation being 'recessive' is also wonderful: light and shadow; yang and yin.

    Thanks for helping.


    On Oct 29 01:59 PM Graham and Dodd Investor wrote:

    > Dear John:
    > There was an explanation in William Strauss' and Neil Howe's book
    > "Generations."
    > A generation is roughly 18 years, alternating in "dominant" and recessive."
    > The xtock market booms when "dominant" generations like the World
    > War II generation (1905-1924) or the Baby Boom (1943-1960) turn 40
    > (the critical economic age) in 1945-1964, and 1983-2000 respectively.
    > During the current "recessive" cycle, Generation X is turning 40;
    > during the last one (1965-1982), it was the Silent Generation. <br/>
    Oct 29, 2009. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    In fact, home sellers should be paying that $8,000 credit by lowering the cost of their homes. That's how capitalism is supposed to work. The government reasons: 'If no one is buying, we'll have to buy it for them.' Not very wise, is it?

    On Oct 29 10:41 AM mc2406 wrote:

    > Extending the homebuyers credit beyond first time buyers just shifts
    > taxpayer dollars to frequent flyers from those who choose to live
    > in one place-- another resdistribution of wealth. Also I've read
    > in the Economist and Time magazines surveys of first time purchasers
    > indicate that a large percentage would have bought their homes regardless
    > of the credits. And this doesn't even include the four year olds
    > who claimed the credit.
    Oct 29, 2009. 03:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Is 'Better' [View article]
    Yes, that's what I see Ryan.

    On Oct 29 02:11 PM ryanclarke wrote:

    > Mark Anthony wrote, "The dollar collapses because there is nothing
    > supporting the value of this fiat currency. The US economy survives
    > and prosper, because America still produces stuffs that the world
    > wants from us." WRONG !!!!!!!!!! The dollar is collapsing because
    > the Fed has chosen - through their 0.25% interest rate policy -
    > to make no difference between debt, valued in terms of actual money,
    > and the money itself. THEIR USED TO BE A DIFFERENCE .... UNTIL RECENTLY
    > !!!!!!!! It should be obvious to all the Fed wants to inflate but
    > the economy is so weak that Bernake is running out of air trying
    > to blow another bubble. If Bernake and CONGRESS succeed look for
    > $5 gasoline at the pump next summer ... which will shut down the
    > current U.S. economy once again in the Fall of 2010.
    Oct 29, 2009. 03:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Tudor Jones Joins Einhorn and Paulson in Fleeing Fiat Currencies - gold, gold, gold [View instapost]
    From the article: "India’s central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao described inflation as a “regressive tax,” justifying his steps yesterday to start withdrawing the monetary stimulus as price pressures build. “As far as public policy is concerned, it has a commitment to insulate the poor from inflation - it’s the prime consideration for the Reserve Bank of India and the government.”

    We all know that inflation is the way the rich tell the poor that the poor have too much money and the rich want to get it. Well, that's why God insists on deflation every 18 years.
    Oct 29, 2009. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
    John, I will never accuse you of having a 'little knowledge'.

    Your suggestions are intriguing. Is this an intuition that attention spans of human memory approximate to 18 years? Have you read this somewhere? I have been thinking that the 18 years may relate to a formally (inherently) defined 'generation' -- more literally true before modernism stretched the time of adolescence into mid-thirties -- that each generation provided the 'seasonal' transition.

    Of course, on a cosmic level, the Saros Cycle, which measure Solar Eclipses, occurs each 18+ years.

    From my book 'Turn Out the Lights':

    Solar eclipses come in patterns that lay a lattice of light/shadow on the Earth running north to south or south to north every 18 years and 11 days, called the Saros Cycle. A catalog of Solar Eclipse Saros #127 shows a return of the eclipse in line with our Day-Expansion Night-Contraction cycles: (running from the future back in time, expected or documented) 2055, 2037, 2019, 2001, 1983, 1965, 1947, 1929, 1911, 1893, 1875, 1857, 1839, 1821, 1803, 1785, 1767, 1749, 1731, 1713…

    In ancient myth, the wounding of killing of the Sun-Hero or Sun God signaled the decline of the Day and the manifestation of the Night-Cycle – in effect, the power of the Sun (the Masculine Hero in myth) was eclipsed by the Moon (the Feminine Force in myth).

    There clearly seems to be order in Nature’s seemingly random manifestations.

    The human calendar is a monument to the human understanding of Nature’s repeating patterns.


    Of course, again symbolically: 18(0) is the number of degrees in a half-circle; 36(0) is the number of degrees in a full circle. In my system, a 36 year cycle is broken into a Day-Cycle of 18 years and a Night-Cycle of 18 years. We would have to believe Plato, who writes that 'God geometrizes', to believe that Nature's subjective laws are based on geometry, and upon a 'mental' transection of the circle as a process of 'time keeping' or cycle generation.

    As far as Zero, I'm speaking more symbolically when I call it Chaos. However, I will look at zero in terms of logarithmic zero. I love your "description absolute zero is defined as the temperature where matter (and energy, remember Einstein's general theory of relativity) would vanish"...because this is more along the lines of what I mean by Chaos -- a kind of universal melting pot of Nothingness to which Universal Life returns at Night, before manifesting again (expanding) when the Cosmic Day-Cycle comes again -- Activity.

    My view is that the universe begins in and returns to this state of non-matter -- plasma state or even pre-plasma state -- before re-awakening and expanding again in its Day-Cycle of form taking and form building. The Night-Cycle is a return to this Zero State.

    Metaphorically, I've also looked at Zero as being the state or condition that separates matter (+ numbers) from anti-matter (- numbers). I'm not sure if this works. And I need to do more thinking about this.

    Symbolically, Zero is a womb into which all elements and personas return and gestate preparatory to rebirth.

    I appreciate you comments, as always.

    On Oct 29 01:00 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

    > Michael - - -
    > I must confess - I did not read all the minutae, so I am sure I missed
    > much of the elegence of your work. But that did not stop my mind
    > from taking off on some thoughts. As in all cases, I am aware that
    > a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I hope you will indulge
    > me anyway.
    > 1. As far as 18 year cycles in things driven by human subjectivity,
    > this might relate to the mean attention span of human memory. Some
    > experimental psychologist should undertake a lifelong experiment
    > (and start when they are young) to measure the median memory of humans
    > for major subjective relationships. This could be done, for example
    > with Ph.D. research. Ph.D.s could be divided into two major groups:
    > those who continue to work in the thesis topic for years after the
    > degree and those who go into different specialties very soon after
    > receiving the degree. I fall in the second group. I'm sure other
    > groups besides Ph.D.s could be studied; that was just something that
    > came to mind.
    > 2. Make a special category for zero that is wider than what you
    > have discussed here. You are discussing a digital scale when you
    > say that zero represents nothing, or chaos. You should bring logarithmic
    > numbers into your process. On logarithmic scales, zero is the logarithm
    > of negative infinity. One example of a number set which is logarithmic
    > is a temperature scale. Temperature is the logarithm of heat content,
    > related to energy. The absolute temperature scale defines zero (absolute
    > zero) to be that temperature defined as the point on the temperature
    > scale reached by an extrapolation of the down sloping line of decreasing
    > volume with decreasing temperature for dilute gases at constant pressure.
    > In other words, absolute zero is defined as the temperature where
    > matter (and energy, remember Einstein's general theory of relativity)
    > would vanish. Statistical thermodynamic shows that this point can
    > never be reached. It is at negative infinity, which is the logarithm
    > of zero.
    Oct 29, 2009. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Einhorn's Top 10 Losing Shorts: REITs and Financials [View article]
    I would not be getting out of an AA short now. It will be testing support at 9.5 in two months.

    A lot of destruction to charts todays.
    Oct 29, 2009. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarians Denninger, Dent, Faber and Hoye Looking for Dollar Rebound [View article]
    "As was discussed in CAUTION: Crash/Collapse Dead Ahead Say Faber, Rogers, Dent and Celente, the contrarians continue to look for a correction/collapse in US and global stock markets, likely resulting from strengthening of the US Dollar. This may affect all asset classes, especially stocks, commodities and precious metals.

    One caveat regarding precious metals, is that it is difficult to say if gold and silver have decoupled from the broader stock markets and commodities. As of this moment, it looks like gold is benefiting from a falling dollar, though gold is also edging up in terms of other currencies like the Euro and Yen, as well as a basket of currencies as define by the Kitco Gold Index. So, while the dollar's weakness has something to do with the rise in gold, it is quite possible that what we are seeing is gold becoming the safe haven asset of choice for investors globally, regardless of what the US Dollar is doing."

    This is my position: markets down, dollar down, foreign currencies down, commodities down (no global recovery)...deflation.... appreciation of gold and silver (gold and silver miners too) as safe haven anti-currency.

    Short-term? Harsh correction in equities markets, which is starting now:

    Look at the charts above, especially at the Asian indexes collapsing.
    Oct 29, 2009. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On Bubbles and the Market Recovery [View article]
    The market bubble IS ending. See charts below.
    Oct 29, 2009. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting note from Cleveland Fed's Joseph Haubrich details a relatively new method of uncovering inflation expectations and real interest rates. According to his research, inflation expectations remain near historic lows, despite the massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet and banking system reserves.  [View news story]
    Check prices from 1983-today and tell me HOW inflation expectations can be considered LOW. We've been through 20+ years of inflation. Prices have come down a bit; but they are going to come down even more.
    Oct 29, 2009. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Redux: Future S&P Returns Could Be Extraordinary [View article]
    Night-Cycles return nothing.

    Recent Night-Cycles: 1929-1947; 1965-1983; 2001-2019.

    Day-Cycles return extraordinary returns.

    Recent Day-Cycles: 1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001.

    We're not going to make much of anything except by trading stocks through 2019.
    Oct 29, 2009. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will the New CNBC Look Like [View instapost]
    Does this mean Cramer will have to go back to Wall Street? Or get his own radio show?
    Oct 29, 2009. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Derivatives: A Banking Time Bomb Waiting to Go Off [View article]
    By the way, great article, Graham.
    Oct 29, 2009. 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper's View of the Recovery: No Real Growth This Year [View article]
    The Real GDP chart above shows pretty clearly that this Great Depression began in 2001. All the money pumping has been an attempt to deny reality; and it is not working; it's only getting the world in more and more debt. More and more debt = more and more defaults = more destruction of matter = deflation.
    Oct 29, 2009. 12:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Derivatives: A Banking Time Bomb Waiting to Go Off [View article]
    Of course the Fed is not going to raise interest rates. But is the Fed going to stop buying TBonds that no one else wants, keeping yields down? Can it afford to dod this for ever?
    Oct 29, 2009. 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mish: Multi-Year Top Could Be In [View instapost]
    Asian indexes hit hard. Housing recovery? Charts don't show it.
    Oct 29, 2009. 12:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment