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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • Peter Schiff Quiets Critics As Weak Data Holds Rate Hikes [View article]
    Let's be honest. Who in their right mind would have believed the central banks would have been willing to sacrifice all the world currencies to destruction by....zero interest rate policy.

    Schiff made a very good prediction (he is not alone; the world is filled with bright people who saw the dangers of the day but never conceived a central bank would be either gutsy or insane enough to push free money to the breaking point). Many of us know or believe that the "Inflate or die" psychosis of modern economic theory is a dangerous obsession and proof of a lack of comprehension as to how the economy is really supposed to work -- a business cycle growth period that is always followed by a non-growth period of rest, a Saving Season that always follows the Spending Season -- what made many people predict armageddon then was a belief that the central banks would have too much sense to push liquidity to the very edge (resolving to treat the sickness of the global economy, a veritable flood of debt and cheap money, with MORE debt and MORE cheap money). It is like a doctor treating a patient with lung cancer with cigarettes and whiskey. It is an oxymoron. When one is drowning, one does not continue to flood the fields with even more runoff from the dwindling dammed evaporating reservoir.

    Anyway, my point is that Schiff (Chef Schiff) diagnosed the problem correctly but misunderstood the extent of madness of the physician treating the patient. And, if the final result, is that central bank madness is resolved without the deaths of all the patients, the destruction of the fiat currency system, hyper-inflation followed by a new system based in currencies founded in gold, and World War III is avoided...then maybe all of us naysayers will have to eat crow and admit that Keynes (as he has been misinterpreted by most modern monetarists) is a savior, and the Austrians are relics of an older and less imaginative world, ready for the historical trashheap.

    I, for one, believe the Austrians will be vindicated, and that we are headed into a Biblical firestorm. But, what do I know? I'm not one of the elite. I'm one of the new serf-class instead. My fear, let me say it now, is that if central bank policy works, we will wake to a foreverchanged world, closer to the medieval feudal system than we are to the modern democractic system that was in tentative place right before we fell asleep at the end of the last Inflation Season. If this is borne out, then winning (for the central bankers) may prove, indeed, to be losing for everyone else. Kingmakers will be smiling. Debt slaves and urchins and serf-kingdoms will be anguished. Is this how the world ends, with this famous whimper, and not with this infamous bang?
    May 21, 2015. 02:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Secular Bull Market Resumes, Buy Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    William: Did you see what happened to oil and gold and copper and all the commodity stocks yesterday when the Dollar smashed at the Euro, gaining 1.3%? This is what you face. You face a bull market in the Dollar and the deflationary effect this phenomenon carries. A bull market in the Dollar has the capacity to wreak havoc on the global economy. Watch what it does to oil, and the other commodity stocks in the next leg up in the dollar.
    May 20, 2015. 01:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Secular Bull Market Resumes, Buy Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    Gold is the enemy to the status quo. The gold price is "the inverse of confidence in the fiat currency system".

    Read this interview with Paul Volcker, in which he declares that gold is the enemy of the FED (and, by implication, to all central banks):

    "When it comes to a hot topic of today’s investment world, Mr. Volcker always had a very strong view on gold.

    “Gold was the enemy to me because that was a speculative vehicle while I was trying to hold the system together. [The speculators] were on the other side.”

    Then and now, the gold price is viewed as the inverse price of the confidence in the system. If gold is high, it usually means something is amiss. In Volcker’s time, the high inflation and budget deficits of the 70s propelled gold from a low of $35 before 1970 to a high of $668 in 1980..."

    http://bit.ly/1PVAd3b
    May 20, 2015. 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning Signs: Cracks In The Foundation [View article]
    Which leaves us where when we "wake up"?

    Are we heading into a brave new world where machines do all the work, and humans receive a living stipend, so they can develop their spirits and minds without having to work for a living?

    Or are we heading into a world where human refuse is thrown away and the rich elite flourish in a world where machines do all the work and the elite get all the profit?

    We need someone to step forward and explain the vision that is being pursued. Is it more free time for creative human endeavor? Or is it fewer human beings and a higher standard of living for those who design the machines?
    May 19, 2015. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Warren Buffett's Misunderstanding Of QE Left Billions On The Table [View article]
    Wantingtoretire: Humans are especially not good at resisting the future when they get cards they don't like. 2001 was the end of the business cycle. The business cycle (expansion or inflation) ran from 1983-2001. Then it ended. Those in power did not like the message they received; that expansion was over. So they attempted to coerce nature or seduce nature to 'extend the business cycle'. Man's hubris.

    Everything in nature acts and then rests. Breathes out; and then breathes in. Some of humanity (those in power, those with the most to lose by a loss of continuity) do not like this law; and so they pretend it isn't so, it isn't a law; that they can outthink it. Our Rest Cycle will carry from 2001-2019. Then we will begin to wake the creative energy again.

    Part of the resting process involves letting the body go to sleep -- that is, stopping the vitalizing of the body (which is what lower interest rates are in a metaphorical sense). Resting seasons, like sleep seasons, involve energy being drawn out of the body and moving into the brain during sleep and dreaming season. Conserving energy instead of spending it. But GDP is the yardstick modern economics uses to measure the health of the economy -- and GDP only measure spending. If we are not spending energy, we are ill -- that is the message of GDP.

    In truth, there are two seasons. There is a Spending Season, 1983-2001; and then this is succeeded by a Saving Season, 2001-2019. Energy is spent during the day through bodily activity; enegy is saved, conserved, during the night through bodily inactivity, sleep.

    GDP tells us saving is evil, a sign of danger. The medicine this doctor uses is perpetually low interest rates. But GDP only describes the Daylight activity; it is incomplete in its view. Can you imagine a medical doctor telling you that sleep and rest need to be avoided at all cost? You would dismiss him as a quack. But this is what our monetary leaders have been telling us for nearly a century. But only a few of us dare call these so-called leaders quacks. But they are quacks. Quacks with impressive educations, impressive degrees, qualifications -- but without philosophy, without an ability to see the whole picture. They are seeing 1/2 the world and proclaiming it the entirety.

    Higher rates are, in fact, the conservation of energy that sleep also is. Higher rates lead to a stronger currency, which is necessary during the conservation of energy period -- strong blood circulation is needed during the day, when the body is active; but it is not needed during rest, when the body is relatively inactive. Spending is 1/2 the story; the other 1/2 story is Saving. Our leaders are one-sided, myopic -- since they desperated want to keep the energy, the power, the money they accrued during the active season. Fear of losing this advantage makes them crazy, desperate, when the energy vanishes, turns inward, as it always does at the end of the Business Cycle: 2001, 1965, 1929, 1893, 1857, 1821, 1785, 1745, 1713....

    During Saving Season, material growth is not possible. The argument that low interest rates serve growth is true half the time -- only half the time -- during the Growth Season. During the Non-Growth (Saving) Season, lower interest rates serve only to animate and expand growths, cancers, debt bubbles. Growth is good; growths are not good. Death by cancer is what we have been experiencing since 2001, an economic version of this.

    Everything is geometry and time. Or space and algebra.

    If you are interested in these ideas, you can read my book online:

    TURN OUT THE LIGHTS:
    THE TWILIGHT’S MOST RECENT GLEAMING

    THE METAPHYSICAL CAUSES OF ECONOMIC CYCLES

    For Alan Greenspan,
    the last of the great white whaleboat captains.

    http://bit.ly/1yReF03

    Note, these cycles about which I write are energy cycles or spiritual cycles, and their impact on human systems (economic, social and physical) are effects of the primary cause, the regular expansion of Creative Energy for 18 years followed always by the end of that expansion, the turning inside-out and upside-down of the Creative Energy, making it the anti-type of itself. Expanding Matter becomes expanding Antii-Matter. The emptying out of the Material Universe is the same as the filling up of the Antimaterial Universe. In truth, the Creative Energy never rests, creating the material universe and then, turning inward, creating the Inner Universe. These two worlds are mirror images of each other.

    This is why we can't live without philosophy. Science is 1/2 the story; religion, myth, poetry is the other 1/2 of the story; and philosophy is the force that synthesizes these two adversaries.

    In religion, myth, the Masculine Principle is 1/2 the story (the Sun, the Day) and the Feminine Principle is 1/2 the story (the Moon, the Night) -- and these two adversaries are synthesized by the Son, who draws them together to save the world.
    May 19, 2015. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect [View article]
    Thanks, David.
    May 18, 2015. 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect [View article]
    I could not agree more, David.
    May 18, 2015. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect [View article]
    If we had a real recovery, the FED would not be hand-wringing about nudging interest rates above zero, and terrified of what this might do.
    May 18, 2015. 03:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impending Collapse: Most Economists Miss This [View article]
    I agree. I think if we valued out democracy more than our ideologies (of the right and left), we would easily solve our problems. But the Ego loves (demands) being on the 'right side' -- so it's always seeing the small picture, and identifying with 1/2 the picture. The Arabs have a similar problem.
    May 15, 2015. 08:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impending Collapse: Most Economists Miss This [View article]
    I agree with much of this, Frankie. I especially agree with the idea that China and Russia and Vietnam and...have had their drying out period with communism, their bottoming process, or Dark Age, which is built-into the system, and they are now getting a new religion.

    Odd that the Western powers keep fighting the same old war, using the same old playbook, afraid to see that sides have realligned. We keep hammering the old saw, Communism against Capitalism. They (we) are afraid of the New World, one in which both communism and capitalism have no seat at the table -- one in which Islam is at one pole, and the Western religions at the other. Too religious a picture for the enlightened crew in the West to recognize -- a reality they are denying with every inch of their politically-correct knee-jerks. Oh, well -- what comes comes, no matter what the enlightened crew wants or does not want.

    I'm not sure all that cash the corporations and banks are saving is going to be used to prop up the system. If the bond market goes, then the MANY TRILLIONS derivative market will go with it. I think that cash cache (sorry) is a pretty weak treasure chest (even thought it is truly gigantic) to mitigate an enormous derivatives meltdown. ZIRP is designed to let the super rich have one last orgy of getting really rich before everything melts away -- so they can cash out and make a run for the hills, before IT happens, and the chit hits the France.

    If bonds melt down, then interest rates soar, and stocks and real estate and a lot of things (assets) also melt. And then we finally get the deflation we should have started to get in 2001, but did not, thanks to the mini-gods in the FEDERAL RESERVE. Then we get a whole new reorganization of the world, starting on the local levels, the global markets becoming just another frightening myth of how BIG things always go wrong.

    When men begin thinking they are gods, then the Tower of Babel scenario is at hand. We had the Tower of Babel scene in 2001, thanks to the agents of the aforementioned Hekate, which should have reminded us that hubris is the greatest sin, and the one most severely punished by Hecate, the Moon Goddess of retribution (red tribute, son) -- who is, in fact, the embodiment of 18 years of destruction of man's creation.

    The world we created from 1983-2001 (18 years), is now being destroyed (18 years, 2001-2019) -- the moon eclipsed the sun -- the Female Principle eclipsed the Male Principle -- and all we can do is allow the destruction to come and then pick up the pieces and start building again. This has been going on forever, and will go on forever: the Creative God builds the material world (inversely, destroying the spiritual world at the same time); then the same God changes directions, re-bulds the spiritual world, which, at the same time, destroys the material world. Ebb and flow in history. Filling up; and emptying out. Creative energy will come back again in 2019 -- and will 'save' us from the horrid frustration of having to watch our material sphere shrink back into a tiny cinder about the size of the New World seed.

    We must not forget in our pride that the world is God's playground.
    May 14, 2015. 08:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impending Collapse: Most Economists Miss This [View article]
    It's hard to believe there could be a 70-80% correction. But look at the quarterly charts of the Japanese Nikkei Index. From 39,000 in 1989 to (yes it is still in a Bear Market) to a new low in 2009: 7021. A loss of 82%. It is still making lower highs and lower lows. I will attach a picture of the chart to my instablog below.

    My own prediction is that the DJIA will hit 8787. One can read my reasoning on the following instablog:

    http://bit.ly/1BwswIu

    I agree very much with the author above that debt is the KEY issue. That we need to destroy debt in order to get to another organic economic cycle. Japan did not destroy debt, but hid it, like the whole world is doing currently. So when Japan's 18 years of deflation ended (2007) it did not begin to recover. One MUST destroy debt first. Deflation is built into this system to do its work: lower prices, force interest rates up, destroy old bad debt and discourage new bad debt, re-focus investors on safe interest rate investment (savings accounts et al). Interest rates MUST go up during the Deflation Cycle to help destroy the excesses of the Inflation Cycle so that the SAVING CYCLE (another less negative name for the Deflation Cycle) can replace the SPENDING CYCLE (Inflation Cycle) and begin to heal the nation from the ravages of the Spending Cycle. We need to be healed from the ravages of the Greed Cycle (higher and higher housing costs and rent costs and millions forced onto the Food Stamp rolls because of this) -- but our leaders are desperate not to let this happen, choosing instead a future that more closely resembles the Feudal Kingdom with Lords and Ladies, Barons and Baronesses, Kings and Queens (the 1%) and the rest of us serfs, and debt slaves.

    Yes, the markets can correct 80%. Will they? Remains to be see. Can the central banks keep this from happening? Remember, central banks are desperate to save their owners and bosses, the 1% -- the new overlords -- big banks and too big to fail corporations. This is the new ruling class of our new fedalism. If the central banks have to destroy everything, including the fiat currency system, to keep the status quo intact, they will do it (they will try to do it). IF the bond market takes over, and forces interest rates higher, as appears to be happening now, then the gambit will be up. The FED has spent trillions to keep interest rates low to save the banks since 2001. It looks like time is running out, however. The Old World is dying. A New World is scheduled to be born (right on time) in 2019. Stay tuned for the miracle -- which most people won't even notice.
    May 14, 2015. 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect [View article]
    Not much risk for the banks when taxpayers just bail them out if they lose money. They make money if they win; and they make money if they lose. Sounds like a fixed game to me.
    May 13, 2015. 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect [View article]
    It's not the US economy that is doing so wonderfully. It's ZIRP. Free money for the rich.
    May 11, 2015. 02:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect [View article]
    NB: What you say is true. When someone today borrows $275,000 to buy a house for $300,000, the seller gets $300,000 and the banks gets about $150,000. And if the buyer is fortunate to service this debt for 30 years, the buyer owns something at the end of the day. The bank's stake is rather large. But it is true, the bank is a rich intermediary in a transaction between 2 willing parties. I stand corrected.

    I would say, debt is about 1/2 the banks' money. That is at these low interest rates. At higher interest rates, the bank share goes up.
    May 10, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shocking Truth About Share Buybacks [View article]
    Here's another interesting article on the RA-RA Press and their dumbed-down earnings expectations and company share buy-backs to camouflage declining revenues

    http://bit.ly/1J3lOBP
    May 10, 2015. 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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