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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • Events Continue To Conspire Against The Fed [View article]
    Tim: The FED has been conspiring against events since 2001; I guess turnabout is fair play.

    You write: Bottom Line: The Fed was already approaching the first rate hike cautiously, wary of even dipping their toes in the water.

    ___
    Cautiously to say the least, since the FED should have begun raising rates in 2001. So, fourteen years late, and now hesitating, afraid a Yellen burp might upset the super rich across the globe. Cautious indeed.

    The guillotines are being sharpened in many places. So the FED has a lot to think about.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece: The Biggest Loser [View article]
    WB YEATS wrote: "The Center Cannot Hold....things fall apart."

    This is his image of a principle in nature, a principle that repeats and repeats. Democacy is the center. When it cannot hold, the one (the center) becomes two, and the right and the left divide; and the broken center-pieces join either the right or the left. Then you have civil war. These sides kill one another until one side wins.

    This is probably coming to Greece, but also to many other parts of the world.

    The Sins of the Father are visited upon the Son for seven generations. Six days of creation; and six days of destruction. The first day of destruction is the last day of creation. The first day of creation is the last day of destruction. 12 days in all. 12 months. 12 years.
    Jun 30, 2015. 03:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Manipulation - I Feel Dirty [View article]
    MANIPULATION. No one in power can stand to lose any longer. So they try to fix everything. And they have a lot more power than we individual investors do. Is this the end of the illusion of capitalism as the Western Religion? I guess we are going to have to start looking for God again.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Exit Strategy: Number 19 [View article]
    If we have slow growth while inflation is too low and targets can't be met by Fed "printing" let's use the knowledge to improve our methods, like smart people do.
    ___

    My view is that there can be no inflation as long as debt loads are high. That is not accepted by our leaders who believe that no amount of debt is too high. That is because they idolize GDP growth -- that is spending growth, be it real spending growth or debt spending growth. What kind of leaders do we have who tell us that saving money is the enemy? Those are leaders who want us all to be debt slaves. If we are not debt slaves, if we have large saving accounts, we are more free -- and this is not what they want.

    The economy has two major cycle-parts or seasons: Spending, Growth, the Business Cycle (1983-2001 was the most recent); and Saving, Non-Growth, the End of the Business Cycle, Rest (2001-2019). The economy grows and produces rewards for 18 years; and then it rests for 18 years. This is a basic law. Take it back into the near past, or even back futher into the past. If what I say is true, that Saving is eternally part of the cycle, then GDP is a false measure, which ignores half of the picture, to our detriment.

    Lower interest rates spur the Growth or Spending Season. But then growth ends; we move into the economic winter, where the 'seed' is dormant and in gestation, needing darkness and relative cold to gestate properly. If growth is not possible after the Business Cycle ends, then lowering interest rates to tempt people to borrow in sinful, since 18 years of non-growth suggest no possibility of a positive return on these late cycle loans. Higher interest rates help to lessen this temptation to take on more unproductive late Business Cycle loans and they reward the common citizen (the 99%) with safe returns on fixed income investments. True, the 1% speculative class will suffer with higher interest rates and with lower prices -- but the 99% will ultimately benefit from this. When the 18 years of rest, gestation, replanting, inaugurate another Business Cycle, the 'common' wealth of the 99% will become fuel for the next Business Cycle.

    18 years of capitalistic growth and evolution; ALWAYS followed by 18 years of socialistic rest and recuperation.

    This is the law. We may not like it. But if it IS the law (IF it is?) what do we gain by resisting it? More debt for the 99%; more wealth for the 1%?

    You write, wisely, EK, about us learning and using knowledge to improve our methods. I agree totally. Individual Will to Succeed is not enough; Wisdom is the part of our nature that we value too little. Will and practical knowledge drive the Business Cycle Growth Season; Wisdom is our little-used and practically-forgotten soul-knowledge. We don't believe in the Soul in the West. The Intellect measures the height of the world, during the day-cycle Growth Season only. The soul measures and, truly, IS depth. We have no depth because we do not believe in depth. The intellect, in the Modern World, the Western World of advanced civilization, has debunked the Soul and the Soul's Wisdom and the Soul's depth. And this is why we are lost, and heading into catastrophe.
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Exit Strategy: Number 19 [View article]
    Working fine, unless you ever want the flexibility of using interest rates again for regulation of economic growth. Oh, that's right. We don't have economic growth, so we don't have to worry about raising interest rates.

    NIRP is not fine actually. NIRP is the destruction of our economic system. The FED has painting us into a corner. IF it is true that we cannot grow inflation while creating catastrophic debt loads (this is my opinion; I know it is not share universally) then, since NIRP is always adding to the debt load, there will be no more economic growth, and just stealing money from the future until...what?

    Zero interest rates are emergency measures. We thought so. Now they are the new normal, because once we bump rates higher assets begin to implode. Hell, even talking about raising rates sends shudders through the markets all over the globe. The normal mechanism of Western capitalism is NOT perpetual central bank 'stealing money from the future' to support present asset prices. That is NOT normal, not fine. This creates for us a perpetual emergency. Perpetual emergencies are not fine. Printing money today impoverishes us tomorrow. Do you think all those trillions of dollars are monopoly money, and will not have to be accounted-for at some point?

    It works just fine, until it doesn't. And then all hell breaks loose. Stealing from the future is just fine, until it isn't. Then it creates a rupture in history, the gap, the abyss.
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's Analytics Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos: Real GDP Up 2.3% In '15, 3.2% In '16, 3% In '17 [View article]
    First of all, GDP only measures spending. And spending is only 1/2 of the economic cycle. So, GDP is not a true measure of the economy.

    What are the two parts of the economic cycle?

    SPENDING, or the Business Cycle, the Growth Cycle.
    ...1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001; 2019-2037...

    SAVING, or the end of the Business Cycle, the Non-Growth Cycle. Or rest.
    ...1929-1947; 1965-1983; 2001-2019; 2037-2055...

    Modern economic policy (and monetary policy) thinks it can ignore the SAVING CYCLE (the Night-Cycle) -- and focus only on SPENDING, which GDP does. But it misleads our leaders into believing if we can just 'trick' nature, we can expand for ever. But this 'trick' is on us. We spend trillions and get no or very little global growth, almost all of it through an increase in debt spending, which is the very wrong thing to be doing in a Deflation Season, when we are supposed to be cleaning our books of all the bad debt we have taken on after the Business Cycle ends. In truth, lowering rates to encourage more debt after Growth has ended borders on the immoral and the insane. We should be raising rates (in 2001-2019) in order to discourage bad debt in a no-growth 18-year phase, and rewarding the 99% with a wealth effect generated by safe investment in fixed income securities (bonds and especially savings accounts).

    Defaltion is not the enemy, it is the savior when the Growth Phase end. But our leaders can't resist it, in order to benefit the 1% speculator class. The speculator class thrives for 18 years; then the investment class (common citizens) thrive via higher interest rates for 18 years. You may argue that high interest rates impeded growth -- but in the non-growth phase (Night) growth is not possible.

    We need to jetison GDP. It is our sextent guiiding us through stormy seas, but this sextant tells us it is sunny all the time, even after the sun has disappeared from our skies. Growth followed by Rest; Day followed by Night; seed activation and harvest followed by seed latency and gestation. These are basic principles in nature. Because we now live in cities and suburbs we have lost touch with the truths of nature, and feel ourselves superior to nature because of this. When empires lose touch with nature they destroy themselves with ignorance, greed and irreverence -- which is where we are now.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece And Germany - A Marriage Made In Hell [View article]
    Yes, this article was well written. Enjoyed it very much.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece And Germany - A Marriage Made In Hell [View article]
    I agree. Easy answers to this are not available, and not true. No simple "good guy' scenarios work here.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece And Germany - A Marriage Made In Hell [View article]
    Reading and thinking is not a race -- it is the essence of life. Slow down. Try to get beyond the surface of things.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece And Germany - A Marriage Made In Hell [View article]
    Don't bet that this affect will be 'brief'. In fact, this 'brief' situation throws into question the entire concept of the EU. Watch the trapped birds fly away, one by one. Why? These imprisoned birds are beginning to understand that being trapped by the banks is not as enviable as it once appeared. Being trapped by a single currency leads to death by starvation.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece And Germany - A Marriage Made In Hell [View article]
    Please, Prezzo Giusto, we did not teach the world how to monetize debt. The world has been monetizing debt from the very beginning of civilizations. In fact, every civilization dies from too much debt. So, America just learned what all you Old Worlders taught us. We should have known better. New follow the Old World. The Old World has already died and gone to hell.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece And Germany - A Marriage Made In Hell [View article]
    That's what a bad marriage is. ALIMONY anyone?

    I would agree that in a rational world, with a simple settlment possible, that German and Greece could work something out. But we are way beyond that now. In fact, the World is Greece; and the World Banks (and the World Governments) are Germany. And we're all headed for a divorce.

    We took the plunge into the 'theory of modern finance' where level of debt does not matter -- and we are now entering the reality where the level of debt matters a great deal. The SPENDING FRENZY is over. And the wake-up call is here. Greece can't afford to stay in the EU, and the Euro. They can't afford to leave either. But of the two -- perpetual debt slavery -- or merely economic destitution, with social chaos, civil war possible -- it does say something that Greece seems to be choosing the latter.

    The global banking system is a problem. It has seduced the entire world into the 'comfort zone' -- but it now is becoming clear that this 'comfort' has a large price. The banks are the new tyrranny. And they own every nation in the world. And, being owners of the slaves, they can tell us all what to do -- and so our democracies are gone (expect as a surface formality) and a new royality is emerging -- unless we resist. The Greeks have to begin this resistance, or at least continue what Iceland started. The banks need to be overthrown, neutered, turned into servants of the state, not masters of the state. Yes, there will be defaults -- and the global economic system will be devastated. The lesson: greed kills. Perpetual inflation (of either the debt bubble or the pricing mechanism that guides the economy) is not only not possible it is debilitating and ultimately destructive.

    Only deflation will save us from the banks. It will be painful. But we will come to understand that experiments in real time of academic theories can exact a heavy burden. Bernanke was an academician who could not even drive a bus, and who found himself trying to drive a global Hindenburg with nothing more than a college disseration and a religious belief in his theory. And somehow we allowed him to drive the bus he could not drive right over the edge. Now we all get to try to pick up the pieces.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    There are a lot of people reaching out for a new party. The Republicans have a branch that doesn't quite fit. So do the Democrats. I think the Libertarians are in that territory also.

    I'm hoping a new party forms as a response to the marriage of the Republicans and Democrats. They are sharing the feast. The claim they are opponents; but the more I see recently the more I see one body with two faces.

    I have a name for this New Party (I understand you already have a name for the Libertarians). I think I want to call it The New Greenback Party. The first order of business is the regeneration of the value of the Dollar.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    Actually, I'm describing principles. I believe the world is driven by ideas, principles.

    I should have written "one" believes in rather than 'you' believe in. One either believes in this (Big Business) or in that (Big Government) or is somewhere in between these two majestic poles that are usually in opposition, but not always.

    I assumed you were a Republican because of what you wrote (pro-business, anti-government). I apologize if that is not the case.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is That Giant Sucking Sound Productivity? [View article]
    Anton: I am getting where I don't trust anything the government is saying. No inflation, we are told. Heady growth in jobs. This is the big print. Keeping controll of the government in a democracy means popularity is the first concern. So you fudge data, find ways to shade data to make you look good.

    Corporations are the same. Corporate buybacks are a fudge factor when sales are dropping. Two ways to increase EPD (Earning): either grow earnings or diminish shares outstanding. You can lose a lot of earnings and buy back a lot of shares (and 0% interest rates) and make it look like earnings are growing AND increase share prices and increase bonuses for corporate officers and cash out sweetheart stock options at the top of the market.

    A whole lot of fudging and shading going on and now very little media to expose the cheating on both sides. Where did the free media go? They are now owned by the cheaters who want us to believe in fairy tales. ("Money doesn't talk, it swears.")

    We are in the Valley of the Shadow of Death.
    Jun 28, 2015. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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