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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Donald: Capitalists don't make many mistakes as long as the government bails them out when they do. Capitalists are greedy; and now they are short-term oriented. It is a mistake to deify capitalists. They are out for themselves and are (most of them) willing to bend or break the law to get ahead.

    We need capitalists, but let's not pretend they are honorable and law-abiding and especially heroic. They are self-serving and need to be regulated.

    The real problem comes when the regulators, the government, gets in bed with the capitalists, as they did in 1998. We've had nothing but trouble since then.
    Sep 19 01:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Sorry: "The economy cannot grow WITHOUT an increase in saving."
    Sep 19 01:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    They will as long as they keep interest rates at zero. If interest rates go up, the FED will go begging the Treasury for a bailout.
    Sep 19 01:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Early results from Scotland lean to "No" [View news story]
    It too close to call according to BBC: 50.5% NO; 49.5% YES. I think the YES votes will win. If they do then watch Spain split apart next. Will this spread to America? To California? To Texas?
    Sep 19 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    I think your lawyer is fine. If we are all in the bubble, then we are all sane by the same definition you use -- so one can't use the instanity defense apparently. If one claims to be outside the bubble looking in or looking on, judging, then that individual opens himself up to the charge of attempting to collapse the wave function, which might be construed in this environment today as an act of terror. Everything apparently is more dangerous than it appears, and less dangerous, at the same time.
    Sep 18 11:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    RV: Can I answer for Mr. Aniston?

    1. Are we in a deflation currently? We should be. But the FED is thwarting it.


    2. Has the United States Fed, so far fought off the deflation threat successfully? Deflation appears to be a threat from a certain perspective. Night is a threat from the perspective of Day. But Night saves us from fatigue. Night helps us regenerate and create a new storehouse of energy for our next period of world-creation. The FED has made the problem worse, since the usual primary task of Deflation is to dissolve excessive and unproductive loans taken out at the end of the Day Cycle (2001 is Noon; 2010 is Dusk) as weak expansion turns into outright contraction. The FED is pumping a dead corpse full of adrenalin, expecting the adrenalin to save the Old World from dissipation. More debt in the Deflation Season, more suffering to destroy that debt.


    3. Did the Japanese Central Bank not "screw up" when they chose to stand aside and do nothing when the country needed them?

    The Japanese Central Bank has been through 5 generations of QE. It did not do nothing. It has been buying bad debt from Japanese Banks to protect Japanese Banks. Remember: the death season requirs death. They should have let the weak overindebted banks sink let the healthy ones survive and gain even more power. Bailing our failing corporations only encourages more bad risk and failure. Japan's problem is they did what the US told them to do.


    4. Are you saying Inflation is worse than Deflation?
    Inflation in its season is not worse than deflation in its season. Both are good in their seasons, and bad in their non-seasons. Perpetual inflation is bad; perpetual deflation is bad. Interest rates need to be lowered when Deflation ends (1911, 1947, 1983, 2019); interest rates need to be raised when Inflation ends (1929; 1965; 2001...) The FED wants a one-sided world, all growth, because they lose power when the hoarding phase of the creation cycle ends. They will do anything (even sell-out their country's future) to not lose their amassed power and wealth.


    5. Are you or Mr. Flynn suggesting that the Fed's fight is insufficient and perhaps the Fed should do more to ensure once and for all that we do not face a Japanese style deflationary period? The FED has done way too much. The Fed should get out of the ring. The Fed should be exiled to Lower Slovobia.


    6. Are you suggesting let's ignore history, let's ignore examples from other countries, let's ignore the wisdom, experience, and analysis of Bernake, Yellen, Fisher & others and follow your gut feeling or that of Mr. Flynn's? Definitely do not ignore history. But analyze history correctly for a change, not like Bernanke, Greenspan, Yellen and others. Analyze history more closely to the way Paul Volcker did, does. Even better, analyze history the way I do.


    7. Are you suggesting that facts & history don't matter, only conjecture or commentary from armchair generals is what will make us all returns on our investments? History matters. But history MUST BE translated correctly.


    8. Can you explain why the SPY put in a Monthly Bullish engulfing candle in August? Can you explain what it means that this week also SPY is likely putting in another Bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on the weekly chart? Are all buyers in this auction for the BID & ASK of the SPY randomnly buying rather than selling? Or are you saying the buyers should not buy before they read such commentary to convince them we are in a Bubble?

    SPY is positive mainly because ZIRP has made corporations buy their own shares and drive up prices; and has made risk on stocks the number 1 game in town, especially when QE was used to support stocks and keep them from correcting. When QE goes away, things change a bit. Who, then, guarantees stock prices will rise? Keep an eye on the FED. If ZIRP vanishes, then a huge market correction proceeds. And all the lies from 2001 begin to fall away.

    Answer me this question: "If perpetual economic growth is not possible in our earthly context, then do we admit this is so, and reconstruct our premise to accept periodical expansion followed by periodical contraction or deflation? Make deflation no longer 'the enemy', but simply a stage in the unity of the economic cycle's life. If so, then our fight to keep interest rates low becomes clearly an abomination and and an example of bad faith or bad judgment on the part of our leaders.

    The abomination (obamanation) is not attached to President Obama, but to all of our leaders for the last few centuries.

    Can we think clearly about this; or do we need to take a side (inflation or deflation) and defend one side and fight it out to the death? Can we change the way we see the world? Or is it too late?
    Sep 18 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Greenspan gave an interview in which he let the cat our the bag. He said: "The economy can't grow with an increase in saving."

    He was lamenting that American were giving up on insurance, which to Alan WAS saving.

    Alan is right: 'the economy can't grow without an increase in saving'. What he did not say is the fastest way to an increase in saving, and, thus, eventual economic growth, is higher interest rates.

    The fallacy is the belief that the economy can grow for ever. Once we come to accept the fact that economic growth is not perpetual but periodical, then the purpose of keeping rates low to spur growth is only true during Growth Seasons (1983-2001, 1947-1965, 1911-1929). During non-growth seasons, the only reason to keep interest rates low is to protect people who have taken on too much debt during the growth seasons. And when we come to understand that that is exactly the wrong thing to do, then we will raise rates during the non-growth seasons to help savers build up nest-eggs they will use for investment when the next growing season returns (2019-3037).

    We have to change the way we think. We have to see reality more clearly. We have to see reality, rather than seeing what we want to see only.
    Sep 18 11:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Don't forget higher education; tuition is up over 3,000% since 1977. Anyone who believes there is no inflation in America doesn't shop here.

    The CPI is fixed to give good news only. It doesn't matter which party is in power, they all want the same good news -- so they agree to the lie, and share the pie. If they admit that there is inflation, they will have to raise rates and end the party. But life is NOT all party. A life that is all party is the life of a drug addict. When the party ends we get tougher, more serious, and learn again how to work and how to create. We are so afraid of losing an advantage. But if we deserve to be the leader of the world, then we will be, through creativity and hard work, not through monetary manipulation and lies.

    I'm not afraid of the Old World ending, because I believe we will be better off in the New World: we will create a better model for the New World, and our lives will be better. The DEBT KINGDOM is not a good world.
    Sep 18 11:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Greenspan caused the Housing Bubble by lowering interest rates after the 2001 conclusion of the Business Cycle. Growth stopped in 2001. The Nasdaq Bubble popped. And Alan jerked down rates to keep the collapse from spreading.

    Greenspan understood that the expansion was over. In 2004-5 he raised the fed funds rate. This is what he should have done, even earlier in fact. He knew what to do. But raising rates made him unpopular. He was addicted to admiration. He knew that the party was over. We would either have higher rates, and he would become the bad guy, instead of the man who had saved the world (1999, Time Magazine cover, after Asian currency crisis) OR he would lower rates and create what Bernanke ended up doing, a house of cards based on a serial debt bubble landscape. Can't be popular during a Night-Cycle: either you do what you should, and become hated; or you do what makes you popular (more free drugs for everyone), but you ruin your society. So Greenspan quit, and turned the villain's hat over to his non-friend Ben Bernanke, who has since passed the hat on to Grandma Yellen, who is now lecturing the poor that they have the responsibility to become rich. Madness.

    We cannot have perpetual growth. Once we understand that, then we begin to get a grasp on the problem, and on our attempts to ignore reality through wishful thinking. Remember Joseph's analysis of Pharoah's Dream in the Old Testament? 7 fat years followed by 7 lean years. That is the law. Only 7 is a glyph; 18 is the real number. 7 is a symbol for the week: a full cycle.
    Sep 18 10:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Wonderul post, RV.

    You are definitely right that there IS innovation going on during the Night-Cycle, during periods of prolonged low interest rates. Night-Cycles are the dream stage. During the Day-Cycle we build the new world; during the Night-Cycle we dream the next world; and when we awaken, we build what we have dreamed.
    Sep 18 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    I agree absolutely with the first part of this surmise, especially about how highter interest rates benefit those who are most likely to buy things, the 99% instead of the 1%.

    The golden age of economic expansion is Spring to Summer in my time schedule: that is, 1920-1929; 1956-1965; 1992-2001; 2028-2037.....

    Higher interest rates also wipe out unproductive debt. Unproductive debt is suffocating the global economy.

    The Inflation-Cycle (1983-2001) is designed to increase spending and create a mountain of debt; the Deflation-Cycle (2001-2019; 1965-1983; 1929-1947) is designed to increase saving and destroy a mountain of debt. Inflation is designed to weaken the local currency in order to gain trading advantage; deflation is designed to strengthen the local currency in order to gain purchasing advantage.

    You are not a bad guy for wanting higher rates. You are a wise man (I almost wrote wise-guy, but that has a different connotation).

    It is not EITHER inflation OR deflation. It is BOTH inflation AND deflation, in an orderly sequence.

    Those who argue that the FED is saving us from deflation miss the point. Deflation is not the enemy. Deflation saves us from too much spending and too much debt. The FED is saving us from what will eventually save us. Why can't they see this. Because they are (rationalism is) one-eye blind. It thrives on polarity, on the EITHER-OR dichotony. Either on my side or against me. It creates a world that is EITHER-OR. Either capitalism or communism. Eiither scientific or superstitious. Either moral or immoral. Does EITHER Summer OR Winter make sense? Summer is fertile; Winter is not fertile. But Summer flows into (and becomes) Autumn and then Winter. Rationalims views the world as stationary objects, truths, fixed realities fighting fixed oppositions. But this fixed object view of the world is broken; processes flow into processes; Inflation flows into Deflation; Deflation flows back into Inflation, like Winter flows back into Summer.
    Sep 18 10:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    Perhaps if everything is in a bubble, nothing appears to be in a bubble.
    ___

    RT, I think you have solved everything.
    Sep 18 10:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Causes Recessions? [View article]
    Odd. The creation of the FED, the US Central Bank, has not cured the US of its regularly scheduled bank panics. What good is the FED?
    Sep 16 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Equities Are Hitting All-Time Highs [View article]
    I agree, Rickeespal. Wall Street and Washington are keeping us from recovering.
    Sep 15 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble In Little Hong Kong? [View article]
    I didn't answer one of your questions, Philip. Are the Chinese capable of governing themselves? Of course they are. Democracy is a very special form of government, one based in and dependent upon a propserous and politically powerful middle class. Where there is no middle class there is no democracy. The beauty of the middle class as an instrument of political policy, is that is is the buffer between and the leader of mortal enemies -- the rich and the poor. In our system, recently at least, the Republicans represented the rich and the Democrats represented the poor. And the middle class sided with the rich when the society needed rebirth (such as 1983-2001) and the middle class sided with the poor when the society needed to close the wealth gap and to develop a soul (such as 1965-1983). Today, the middle class should be siding with the poor. But the rich are trying to destroy the middle class now. If a society successfully destroys the Life Principle , the Middle Principle, then civil war, social chaos, and political tyranny result. There clearly are Asian cultures that have embraced this model: Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand (sort of)... Will China? Perhaps some form of it, as the middle class grows in power and demands comfort more than truth. That is another problem with the democratic model. The two mortal enemies believe in truth from the perspective they carry and defend. The middle class/middle principle honors peace and comfort more, wealth, the gentle life, which peace, like everything in the universe, decays into its opposite.

    Democracy is best, although imperfect. But democracy decays, breaks down, usually due to economic destruction, and then the two principles of Chaos remain, without a referee or a buffer. The Greeks said the end and the beginning of the universe was chaos. And then creation (the Creator) ordered chaos. This implies we have to go through the chaos of war to get the next creation of the world. It seems clear to me that we are going in to this world-ending world-begetting chaos as we speak.
    Sep 14 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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