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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • Twitter: The Bottom Is In...Again [View article]
    The bottom on Twitter is ....OUT again.
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: Periscope Is On Fire [View article]
    Alex, et al:

    Here are my reasons for shorting TWTR:

    A picture is worth a thousand words. Of course, in my sake, I usually offer both a thousand words and a picture; so my view is that these two sides of the brain, the word side, and the picture side, do go well together.
    Aug 18, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: Periscope Is On Fire [View article]
    My reasons are technical. I can put together a picture for you as an instablog today.
    Aug 18, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Home Builders? [View article]
    I like to watch also. Just watching so far. Patience is a good thing.
    Aug 17, 2015. 05:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: Periscope Is On Fire [View article]
    I just bought long-term put options on TWTR. Down periscope!
    Aug 17, 2015. 05:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocwen: Recent Price Action Unwarranted [View article]
    Trayjay: You and I speak different languages. I'm a technician. I follow technical indicators, most of which are proprietary (I have created). I have included a chart which includes what I consider to be a smoking gun, for relatively short-term trading. If you have questions about the indicators I'm using, I can answer those questions.

    When I search news about OCN, I find a lot of troubling stories about inefficieniencies, law-breaking, and organized crime operations.

    You're right in that might focus is relatively short-term. I am short OCN until my indicators tell me not to be. I'm not bullish long-term on OCN. I think there are much better looking 'long' charts. This wiill change over time of course. Perhaps some day I will consider OCN for a long position. I tend to trade ooptions with 6-12 month durations. That is about as far out as I go however, update positions during the life of the trade, depending on how it is behaving.

    OCN is apparently a mortgage service provider that has trouble servicing loans without breaking the law, terrorizing customers, making administrative errors, foreclosing on the wrong people. From what I have read about OCN, they seem like gangsters. This similar mentality serves Jamie Dimon and the big Wall Street banks; so it is possible that OCN will be successful despite their serial law-breaking, as Mr. Dimon has been at JP Morgan.

    Last time OCN gave a similar Shortsell Signal using my system it was in Nov 2013 when it was trading at 59. It gave a cover signal in January 2015 at about 6.
    Aug 15, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Behavioral Correction Has Begun [View article]
    Excellent article, Michael. Yes, the FED has been masterful in controlling the market collapses. But the FED is misunderstanding the importance of deflation, of higher interest rates, of curtailing bad debt, and of the need to protect one's national currency. Once the FED realizes it has been doing exactly the wrong thing since 2001 -- if the hope of short-term gain, or avoiding a deflation that gets rid of weak companies and makes room for the next expansion that will replace old weak dead companies with vital new companies. The FED has been on the side of protecting the dead timber instead of clearing it out. Evolution requires that a old dead and dyiing ideas be replaced by the next generation of ideas -- and the FED has been impeding this process by giving money to everyone with a hand out (on Wall Street). This is common nonsense. Once they understand they have been protecting the decadent parts of Wall Street simply to keep their friends happy, then they will lament what they have done. We should have been clearing out the old dead timber beginning in 2001. We have not. We still are not. The only thing that will do this is higher interest rates and the FED is do afraid of higher rates they have had three FED chairs in the last decade because no one has the guts to pull the trigger. Greenspan did pull the trigger, then lost his nerve, longing to remain a popular world savior; Bernanke was hopeless; Yellen is a joke. The one who does pull the trigger will face impeachment threats, as Volcker did. Democracies die from a lack of real leadership. Popularism kills it -- politicians wishing to always be popular.

    Michael, very nice article.
    Aug 15, 2015. 03:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocwen: Recent Price Action Unwarranted [View article]
    I'm not bullish long term, Trayjay. They can't make money without breaking the law. This does not make them unique. Look at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, Bank of America. However, they don't have the friends in high places like the other violators. OCN is currently breaking down. Long-term is a long-term question.
    Aug 14, 2015. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocwen: Recent Price Action Unwarranted [View article]
    Capitalism IS organized crime.
    Aug 14, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Gains Momentum [View article]
    Deflation Cycles this century: 1929-1947; 1965-1983; 2001-2019.

    Inflation Cycles: 1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001.

    How many of these cycles do we get, before a Dark Age sets in? Sir John Glugg did a study and his findings are that Empires have a life cycle of roughly 250 years.

    IF this is accurate, a very large IF at this point:

    7 x 36 = 252

    1776 + 252 = 2028

    Are we running out of Creative Libido, or Time?
    Aug 13, 2015. 04:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Gains Momentum [View article]
    We were supposed to begin deflating 2001. We refused. We needed higher interest rates beginning in 2001. This would have limited debt, transitioned us to a Saving Season and to paying off our Spending Season debts (1983-2001) -- higher rates spur income through interest and build up a pot of savings that acts as the fuel of the next lift-off stage (2019).

    We did everything wrong. We have huge debts. We still have to destroy these bad debts. We still have a lot of creative destruction ahead of us.

    But, yes, the author is right, and so is Contrarianadvisor: DEFLATION; then INFLATION. This is not to say that every inflation is more powerful than the one that preceded it. If you ignore or resist Nature's laws, then you lose 'favored nation' status.
    Aug 13, 2015. 04:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Correction Gains Momentum [View article]
    Joseph: 2019 is where my bottom is. Based on the 36-year cycle.

    1983: Winter-Spring Reflation
    1992: Spring Summer Inflation
    2001: Summer Autumn Disinflation
    2010: Autumn-Winter Deflation
    2019: Actual apex of Deflation Season; bottom (seeding) of the next inflation cycle.

    In western astrology, an Astrological Age is 60 periods of 36 years or 2160 years. In eastern astrology an Age is 36 cycles of 60 years which is also 2160 years.
    Aug 13, 2015. 04:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Can It Be Anything Else? [View article]
    The FED is working its way out of a job. If this is true, this means a lot of political fireworks ahead.
    Aug 13, 2015. 04:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So Far, Inevitable 'Dollar' [View article]
    Another good article. Keep them coming. You have your finger on the world-pulse in ways most writers do not.
    Aug 13, 2015. 04:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Things Are The Most Worrisome For U.S. Companies Today [View article]
    Strong Dollar, Strong Dollar, Strong Dollar. Two reads:

    My prediction of the Chinese devaluation in December 2014.

    March 2015: Is the Strong Dollar Taking the Bull Market Apart Brick By Brick?

    I favor the strong dollar. Chinese devaluation makes the Dollar stronger. FED increase in the FED Funds Rate makes the Dollar stronger. We must go through the Deflation Season to get to the other side of the river, and organic economic growth. Deflation gets us back to go. Deflation destroys the Debt Bubble that must be destroyed as a part of the Deflation Cycle Schedule.

    I support a New Political Party in the US, the New Greenback Party.
    Aug 12, 2015. 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment