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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • Jim Chanos Is Wrong: There Is No China Bubble [View article]
    A world war would fix all that. A lot of things can happen. A political schism (like what has happened in Thailand -- rich ubanites versus poor ruralites) could also spell trouble. A lot of things can happen.

    As the Boy Scouts warned us all: Be Prepared.
    Jan 12, 2010. 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos Is Wrong: There Is No China Bubble [View article]
    Chanos and Rogers will both be right. China's bubble will pop. Rogers will hold China stocks for 30 years and make a killing.
    Jan 12, 2010. 02:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Dollar in the New Year [View article]
    US Dollar Rally: what Dollar rally?

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

    Dollar turned back at resistance; gold turns up above support levels.
    Jan 12, 2010. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Comes the 'Double-Dip Recession' [View article]
    We've also never had a period in history where the Fed has been dedicated to a steep yield curve, believing that the steep yield curve will defeat a recession.

    This reasoning is like arguing that the cart is driving the horse.

    The Fed won't raise short-term rates until Bernanke and the frightened crew of the Pequod (the Inflationists) are all thrown overboard.
    Jan 12, 2010. 01:33 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volcker Doesn't Go Far Enough in Espousing Competition [View article]
    'I hope' may be read as 'I hope Congress will do something to mandate more competition'.

    However, more competition alone is not going to save America from Wall Street. Only a major pruning of the orchard will save America from the parasites who own the government. We are in the Autumn of this historical period. We need to cut back the trees, cut back the big corporations -- there won't be more competition unless we level the playing field again. Let's start with Goldman Sachs and move on from there.
    Jan 12, 2010. 01:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just a month after forecasting a 24% drop in mortgage originations in 2010, the Mortgage Bankers Association now sees a 40% drop coming, to $1.28T - the lowest level in a decade. Rates are widely expected to rise when the Fed wraps up MBS purchases.  [View news story]
    Housing needs to fall about 60%. We need housing costs to reflect American salaries and REAL wealth. Housing is not a ponzi scheme to be run for the benefit of banks and mortgage and insurance companies, it's for Americans -- a necessity, a place to live. We've deluded ourselves that housing is, first, an investment, and, second, a necessity. That's why we are currently padding down S--t Creek without a paddle.

    We're concerned about supporting the 'housing as an investment' crowd. We built the bubble for them -- and now Bernanke is imperiling America for the sake of these parasites.
    Jan 12, 2010. 01:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: It Doesn't Take a Genius to Figure Out How This Will End [View article]
    Lower interest rate to 0% -- what do you get? The next asset bubble and crash. Have the idiot Inflationists learned nothing at all over this past decade? Inflation is a psychological act of fear, constructive when coming out of a depression -- but destructive while heading in to one.

    We are following Japan -- who followed our economists' advice 20 years ago. Their depression hasn't even started yet, because of this denial of reality.

    Debt is, itself, a balloon. The heavier it gets, the less it can fly. The more you inflate it with additional debt, the heavier it gets.
    Jan 12, 2010. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Comes the 'Double-Dip Recession' [View article]
    Wonderful article, Jeff. If US banks are unwilling to loan any of their own money to the US economy, then why do we even need them?

    Goldman Sachs is a hedge-fund operating under the rubric of an investment bank. Ok, make it a hedge-fund -- and let's begin regulating hedge-funds.

    The world does not exist for the benefit of the RICH alone.
    Jan 12, 2010. 08:24 AM | 59 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Bubble Economy [View article]
    I think Chanos is right.

    But Rogers has a time frame of 20 years. He may be right also.
    Jan 12, 2010. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Praise of Capitalism: 9 Books that Make a Simple, Succinct Case [View article]
    My view is that what we call socialism is the midpoint between the poles of unfettered capitalism and unfettered communism. I don't want unfettered capitalism or unfettered communism. Unfettered capitalism is about private enterprise making profits...and we do know that both slavery and child labor have flourished under unfettered capitalism.

    Government disciplines capitalism in the West a bit at a time, by giving slaves rights, by giving women rights, by giving children rights. I will remind you that the BUSINESS CLASS fought these changes tooth and nail. Capitalism wants the world to be ordered for the benefit of the rich, to the detriment of the poor. Social legislation that brings more wages and more rights to the weaker and the poorer members of the society have always been fought by the Business Class, which has historically viewed the poorer classes as (sub-?)humans to be used and abused for their own benefit and profit, as slaves, as serfs, as working class paid pennies and worked to death in bad conditions, then (through many wars and political armageddons) as elements of organized labor, 'equals', sort of, in a tense partnership of social development.

    Can you really argue with this observation?

    The Marxists want to murder the business class as punishment for their mistreatment of those with less power throughout history.

    Socialists -- at least this is my view of 'socialists' as the middle principle between capitalists and communists -- believe there is a need for both business development and a social conscience. That's what I also believe.
    Jan 12, 2010. 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos Is Wrong: There Is No China Bubble [View article]
    There is such a thing as a debt-related asset bubble (which is the most destructive) and a price-related asset bubble. Both eventually correct.

    There is no question there is a real estate feeding frenzy going on in Asia. A feeding frenzy is by definition a bubble -- but it is a problem with supply and demand and is 'fixed' by a recession. These recessions may last 1-2 years and involve a retreat of prices to an oversold level.

    Chinese real estate is all being built for rich Chinese or foreigners who may not ever come. It is a fantasy. Much of it is being built with borrowed money -- which means there will be defaults and the banks will be hurt. But much of the inflation in real estate in Asia comes from family cash and so is not directly connected to debt or the banks.

    The debt-related asset bubble is much more serious and is only solved by a depression, since it takes decades to resolve insolvency through deflation and bankruptcy.
    Jan 12, 2010. 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Free Trade Is Failing America [View article]
    In Vietnam, workers work for lower wages because housing costs them about $50-100/month if workers rent -- most live with their families and have no housing cost -- and food costs about $3/day or even less.

    It's not the workers' fault in America -- it's a different kettle of fish, isn't it?

    Let's get housing costs down to $100/month and food costs to $100/month and then American workers can work for a smaller salary.

    Of course, we'll also, while we're at it, cut those billion dollar salaries of American corporate geniuses.
    Jan 10, 2010. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    It seems almost too clear today that the government is now in the business of manufacturing lies to try confuse the public and to try to get Americans to BUY AND BORROW without regard to limitations or reason or current context?

    After America was attacked by terrorists in 2001, we were told by our president: "Just go out and shop"? Is this because we are so shallow as a nation that the only way we can respond to the tragic is by racing out to the mall and raising our spirits by buying something gadget at Best Buy? If that is so, then we are spiritually bankrupt as a nation and pretty hopeless considering what kind of future we are heading in to (it will NOT be all consumer items and the splendor of shopping). Or is it because our economy is so fragile that a genuine response to the tragic that includes not spending money for a weekend imperils our economic existence? Are we living for business, for profits, for the mania for the consumer life-style, and nothing more? Can we go deeper as a society, a civilization? I hope we can. If we can't, that will be the greatest tragedy for us.

    We have been through depressions, poverty, war; we have survived corrupt governments and corrupt business monsters. We will survive again. We will survive lying governments and lying corporations -- but we might not survive corporate capitalism that turns us into a nation of debt serfs and slaves. We cannot let the government and the corporations get away with this recent pillaging of the public coffers and rape of the American citizen and taxpayer.
    Jan 10, 2010. 07:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Praise of Capitalism: 9 Books that Make a Simple, Succinct Case [View article]
    This silly dichotomy between socialism and capitalism. EVERY capitalistic country on earth is also a socialistic country. If we want an ideal spectrum of capitalism at one pole and marxism at another pole, we'll find every advanced nation near the middle, part capitalist and part socialist. What is social security, medicare, food stamps, unemployment insurance, child labor laws...? In a perfectly capitalistic country, there would be no minimum wage, no child labor laws, no prohibition of slavery, no safety laws at the work place, no workman's compensation for injury while working, labor unions would be illegal....

    Every decent nation is part capitalist and part socialist, the two poles sharing power and working together for a better society. Clearly, we want a society that benefits everyone in society, not one that just greases the road for a handful of the super-rich.
    Jan 10, 2010. 07:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Praise of Capitalism: 9 Books that Make a Simple, Succinct Case [View article]
    I wish we had an 'invisible hand' guiding our markets. Today we have a very visible hand...and it belongs to Ben Bernanke.
    Jan 10, 2010. 07:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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