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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • I Bought A Fitbit, Buy Fitbit? [View article]
    You don't see a stock market bubble -- isn't ZIRP and NIRP, in basic dictionary usage, equivalent to 'asset bubble'. To not see this suggests you may be wearing your fitbit wearable Bubble Deflecting Sonic-Retardent Eye-Glasses. Beware. Blindness could result.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Should Be Cut Some Slack [View article]
    Vietnam and Korea had pretty recent north-south civil wars also. It's a basic feature of life on Earth, in fact.

    Mystical literature connects the four directions, the four winds, the four seasons, with the four guardian angels. What does this mean? It means we will never have the One World Government some people want, without major flexibility -- this "I am right, and everyone has to do things my way" is not going to work, thankfully.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Efficiency Is The Name Of The Game At Caterpillar [View article]
    Buyside: You write

    Cat’s stock will sell off if Cat “misses” an analyst consensus “guessestimate,” because short-term traders believe the current price is discounting that guessestimate, and if there is a shortfall from it, traders will hit the stock.

    ___
    It's a fixed game, is it not. These analysts (who are often in bed with companies they follow) dumb-down estimates in consultation with these companies, lowering and lowering these estimates, to make sure the companies 'beat'. Cryonyism is everywhere. It's a corrupt system. Companies then buy back shares to reduce shares and warp EPS to make sure earnings weakness are covered up. Then 'financial news media hawks', also on the payroll, literally or figuratively, call out COMPANY A BEAT ESTIMATES. EVERYTHING IS FINE. HAVE A DRINK. BUY SOME MORE SHARES.

    ---
    In a low volume environment, share buybacks can drive the market continually upward. Here's a blog I wrote some time ago about the scam of share buybacks to cover up lost earnings.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Should Be Cut Some Slack [View article]
    It's a combination of things clearly. The South has never believed in the religion of work the way the Northern protestants have. You see this in every country on every continent: a dichotomy of values between North and South.

    Geography and economics are NOT linked? That is a silly idea. The hot South never works as hard as the cold North. It isn't possible physically. A hypothetical nation has no coastline -- you can bet this is going to affect their economy.

    The Northern authoritarianism that demands everyone in the world work-work-work, work until they die, is simply not the way everyone in the world wants to live their life. Protestants obviously do. Because they are soulless hoarders driven by Saturnine greed. But should the whole world try to emulate them in this sinful quest for more, more, more? That is a different question.

    Clearly the Greeks made a big mistake. And they should have followed Iceland out the door as soon as Iceland left. They did not. Now they are struggling to find a way out.

    We have the understanding that One World means we all have to be the same, and comply with the same spirits that drive the Northern Hemisphere in their quest for mastery of the material world -- strap on the heart-attack machine and work yourself to death. Spiritually, we have a lot to learn.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Should Be Cut Some Slack [View article]
    The ONLY alternative to austerity is spending more debt. Austerity is the natural result of deflation (depression) which is the necessary other side to inflation or economic growth. Austerity/deflation is the shadow side of the business cycle -- and it cannot be avoided simply because we want to avoid it.

    We grow our economy for 18 years -- 1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001..-- and then the economy 'rests' for 18 years. The rest period is when the party is supposed to end and the deleveraging is supposed to happen -- hence, 'austerity'.

    Austerity is when over-endebted businesses pay for being over-endebted. This is the very reason that corporations, individuals and governments SHOULD NOT BECOME heavily endebted. The idea that debt matters needs to be inculcated; and if we all understand the business cycle, that we grow for 18 years, and then we refuse to grow for 18 years, we will understand the limits to debt, and the austerity that is punishment for breaking these rules.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Investors - The Fed Is Not Our Friend [View article]
    Volcker said in a recent article: "Oh, gold is always the enemy at the FED. Gold is the symbol of chaos. And the FED is the symbol of stability, the lord over chaos..." I am paraphrasing a bit.

    Of course, the FED hates gold, and wants to neutralize it, or destroy it. What happens when the FED (and the global central banks) lose control of the economies? That will be when gold rises up. Why is the FED afraid to raise interest rates? Because that may be how the FED loses control of the economies.

    Higher rates should help the Dollar, which is an anti-Gold play; but a stronger Dollar will scalp the emerging markets and escalate defaults around the globe. It will threaten the banking establishment -- at a time when more taxing the populace to save banks may not have much political capacity. Tax the banks to save the populace might be a more poplular incentive.
    Jun 22, 2015. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Should Be Cut Some Slack [View article]
    The EU is the empire the Germans always dreamed of but never could really win (permanently) on the battlefield. Why would they give this up willingly?
    Jun 22, 2015. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Should Be Cut Some Slack [View article]
    Austerity only works if it is causued by or cconnected to default (or loan forgiveness). The EU idea that austerity makes you more eligible for more debt is insane. Austerity works as the shadow-side of debt elimination. Those who argue that austerity didn't work in Europe are missing a key point in all of this. Cold turkey debt; austerity means pain FOR A REASON, to get free of debt. The idea of using austerity to qualify for more debt is patently absurd. It's a bankers' idea: it leads to deeper and deeper enslavement of the population.
    Jun 22, 2015. 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Needs To Leave The Euro: Part I [View article]
    Why would Greece want to keep the Euro as a currency? What do they get our of a currency union that is controlled by a political state or states that have only secondary or passing interest in Greece's interests?

    The best thing for Greece would be to remain a member of the EU, with its own currency. But that is apparently not a possibility.

    The Euro was a bad idea. The EU was not as bad an idea. Can the EU continue as a loose confederation of trading partners with independent currencies? Europe wants to be big like America. They want another chance at a major empire, another chance to control the world. Who doesn't? But they have already had their time as Sun-King. Now it's time to step down.

    Almost all the trouble Greece is in now stems from the fact that they did not have their own currency.
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History (Podcast) [View article]
    I agree with you, Peter, on our sentiment about the FED and the Dollar. If the Dollar gets unseated as King Currency, the FED gets unseated as the global King Maker.

    So, how does the FED support the Dollar? It raises interest rates. This supports the Dollar, which deals strong kicks to Russia and China and other commodity economies (oops, also to Canada and Australia -- can't be helped). Oil prices sink; developing economies sink into default; but the Dollar becomes the big winner -- in a world that is suddenly smoking, and in ruin.

    Still, no other choice if the FED wants to continue to make all the rules.

    The cheap Dollar seeds the global economy with debt and asset bubbles; the strong Dollar harvests the global economy, and draws all that HOT MONEY back to America.
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Should Be Cut Some Slack [View article]
    Well, doesn't this explain fully why Greece needs its own currency? Greece is at an economic disadvantage, not because Turkey has devalued her currency, but because Greece cannot devalue hers. The Euro was a pipedream that was not thought out at all. Why did European nations give up their sovereignty so easily? The promise was a US of Europe. Yes; but the US of Europe would be a very dangerous idea for the world. Study the history of Europe and decide if bigger or smaller is better.
    Jun 22, 2015. 02:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Debt-Funded Repurchases: Terrific Or Terrible? [View article]
    There is no evidence of any correction until after the correction. A repeat of 2009? No. Worse? Perhaps. We clearly have more debt to destroy now; and we have less political (and literal) capital to throw into the black hole of deflation to try to stall a second time.
    Jun 20, 2015. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Market Warning [View article]
    Very good report. Bond Vigilantes are back?

    The central banks are holding their breath(s) hoping a savior will arrive at the last minute. What savior? Organic global economic growth. Not very likely. It's more likely that World War III will beat a new cycle of growth on to the stage.
    Jun 20, 2015. 12:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Efficiency Is The Name Of The Game At Caterpillar [View article]
    Why has Cat’s stock price been relatively solid in the face of both a number of headwinds and the consensus “estimate” of a further 5% decline in Cat’s EPS next year (because Cat won’t give EPS guidance for 2016 until next January, the consensus for 2016 is more a “guesstimate” than an estimate)?
    ____
    Corporate share buyback?
    Jun 18, 2015. 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen Puts The 'Dollar' Back On Suicide Watch [View article]
    Predictable (using my 18 year cycle) but not preventable.
    Jun 15, 2015. 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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