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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • IS THERE A BUSINESS CYCLE? YES, THERE IS. THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE BULL MARKET ARE THE SAME THING. [View instapost]
    Thanks, Alan. I have read a bit of Fred Harrison. I know he writes about land cycles lasting 18 years, from his study of British real estate cycles. Phillip Anderson? Not familiar with him, but I will check him out. That you for the tip.
    Michael
    Mar 21, 2015. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IS THE US DOLLAR BULL MARKET OVER? NOT A CHANCE. [View instapost]
    Thank you, Alan. I'm going to publish some charts on currencies this weekend.
    Mar 20, 2015. 11:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • That's Not How Any Of This Works [View article]
    History doesn't stand still, Dale. People, governments, and companies go backrupt. Revolutions happen. Interest rates, if those that use them refuse to use them wisely, can be moved by historical traumas also.

    We won't be sitting on ZIRP for decades. We will have secession from the union or from the empire before we will have that.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That's Not How Any Of This Works [View article]
    No, Swami: I have picked my targets with care. I have more torpedoes for Washington if they don't fall into line, after I remove the real oligarchy first, the secret government.

    I also have one for Langley, if I need to use it.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Financial Folly Lurking Beneath Yellen's Patient Lack Of Impatience [View article]
    Yes. We are not doing as well as we always tell ourselves. Tell someone the US is the 25th richest nation on Earth, and it will probably provoke a fight.

    Everyone likes to be friends with the rich kid, ride in the rich kid's car. No one likes the rich kid; but people like to be associated with the rich kid, believing, somehow, magically, the glamor rubs off.

    (The glamor does NOT rub off. And it's a good thing it doesn't in fact.)
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Financial Folly Lurking Beneath Yellen's Patient Lack Of Impatience [View article]
    Lenny was filled with acidic zingers. Is it ok if I use that the next time I meet up with Janet Yellen: "Don't talk to me like I'm Montel Williams"? Maybe I should say to her: "Don't talk at me like I'm Lennie Briscoe."
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Financial Folly Lurking Beneath Yellen's Patient Lack Of Impatience [View article]
    The end result of all this central bank theft and insanity (maybe it is NOT instanity; maybe it is just theft) will be a destruction of curriencies and a return to the gold standard. Why are Russia and China buying so much gold? Because they want currencies on the gold standard. History begins on the gold standard, ends off the gold standard, and then re-begins on the gold standard.

    We think, in our pride, that we are at the cutting edge of history; perhaps, innstead, we are at the dead end of history. That's why all ancient cultures and civilizations put their graveyards in the West. They understood that everything goes to the West to die.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Santa Klaus Is Coming To Town For Alcoa [View article]
    I have been engaged in another article on the future of AA. It became a discussion of illogic vs logic (fundamental analysis). I informed the reader than technical analysis was also mathematical and was a visual way of seeing rather than a data-cruncing way of seeing.

    You guys might enjoy the blog I created as a result of this conversation, especially the chart that shows why I am short AA and expect it to be trading at around 8 in the next 3-4 months.

    http://bit.ly/1LxKXrw

    I'm long AA October 15 Put Options on AA.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not The Same Alcoa [View article]
    I put together a blog for you, with a picture of AA, and with 'visual' technical reasons of why I believe AA is a shortsell now. This is NOT a perpetual condemnation of AA. This is about timing, something at which fundamental analysis is chronically weak.

    http://bit.ly/1LxKXrw

    Also, I 'm taking the liberty of adding links to other blogs that explain my 'spiritual' understanding of why FED actions since 2001 break (God's) Laws of Nature and will result in damnation. And how the strong Dollar has begun taking apart many stocks, oil and commodities first, apparently multimation tech stocks now.

    http://bit.ly/1BwswIu

    http://bit.ly/1Cu7PE6
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not The Same Alcoa [View article]
    I realize you are in love with AA, which is breaking the first rule of investing -- never fall in love with a stock -- and that I am attacking your sacred cow.

    My prediction is that AA will be below 10 before it is above 20. Simple prediction, either right or wrong. All the rationalization you do with fundamental information is just that -- rationalization, a form of a prayer. Your reciting margins and EPS and debt level and cost per ingot is just a form of prayer and says nothing about where the stock is going. You have come to believe that fundamentals drive the stock price; in truth, investors' GREED drives the stock up, investors' FEAR drives the stock price down.

    Fundamentals may be a fuel for the GREED, but not always. Often, stocks with good fundamentals tank, completely collapse. Because FEAR eclipses GREED. Fundamentals is ALWAYS a picture of the past -- even the fundamentals indicator that peek into the future (future earnings projections -- projections being the key word) just extrapolate the past and present into the future. So how do we gauge the transition of investor GREED into investor FEAR? Well, interest rates are a key gauge of GREED/FEAR transition mechanism. But they are not the only one. There are others. FEAR generally can overtake a bull market, since Fear of war, political collapse, depression also weigh into the balance.

    Fundamental equations are often helpful in telling the investor which stock to buy, but rarely if ever WHEN to buy or sell. Value is a guide, but not a very useful guide: one can buy an undnervalued stock and sit on it for two years waiting for it to move. When a stock gets overvalued, and the investor sells he may watch the stock double or even triple after he sells because of valuation.

    I think you are just defending a convention. Conventional wisdom is always conventional (I want to belong to the big, successful group) but very rarely wise.

    So, I don't believe in your logic. Why should I participate in this thinking. I believe it is a false prayer. As with any discipline or learning, it has value as a discipline, as does technical analysis have value as a learning discipline.

    In a bull market, when all boats are lifted by the tide, fundamental analysis seems like the law. Investors apply the rules of fundamental analyis to stocks, and stocks go up, and investors believe there is a causal relationship between their religion and the wealth-results. But in the Bear Market, that faith breaks down. So get ready.

    I use technical analysis to try to view, directly, the struggle between FEAR AND GREED in a specific stock. At the moment, in AA, there is more FEAR than GREED. That is what I'm saying. Your fundamental positives are all weighed on the GREED side; but there are more FEARS about future fundamentals and about macro liabilities (the strong dollar being one).

    Technical analysis is also mathematical. But it is more about measure psychology than about measuring the body.
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why [View article]
    Clearly, when they finally bottom. The FED is spending to deflate metal stocks; and the Dollar is not friendly to metals. But their time, the metals, is coming. Central banks are killing paper currencies gleefully. How can the metals not appear at the end of this movie as the liberating hero?
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not The Same Alcoa [View article]
    "Very negative": negative from what perspective? From the perspective of prosperity and comfort which you probably think is or should be the eternal condition. Read my description below.

    Prosperity and comfort is a passing stage, and certainly is not meant to be perpetual. Clinging to riches in perpetuaity is, from the spiritual perspective, a sign of sin and of coming damnation. I believe that greed is a negative. I believe that love of wealth, in perpetuity, becomes also a negative.

    From the spiritual perspective, worldly wealth, power and sensual pleasure is a negative, for it traps you in the false world, the world of illuson, where glamor misleads you. From the spiritual perspective, our world is evil; and is a temptation for the soul.

    I mention this to remind you that 'negative' is a relative judgment. It really depends upon which side of the circle you are standing, which world and judgement appears to be positive and which negative.

    From the spiritual perspective, the material world is evil, negative, and dangerous to the soul. From the material perspective, the spiritual world, is evil, negative and dangerous to one's life.

    To the material world, materialism is life and the world of spirits death. To the spiritual world, materialism is death and the world of the spirits life.

    I won't say any more. If you want to hear more about the spiritual world, I will be glad to share; if not, please think about this idea of perspectives the next time you want to judge someone's views as being negative.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not The Same Alcoa [View article]
    The 'mistakes' of the past were not mistakes. When Financial Winter hits, all the structures get taken down, financial, political, social, etc. Yes, armageddon, in a sense. The old world will be destroyed; and a new world will be quickly built, out of the chaos.

    I'm not saying AA will necessarily underperform. When the Bear Market does hit -- it the FED allows the dollar to appreciate -- then AA will go down, and so will nearly everything else. We've been spoiled by a FED that sees its duty to protect investors. The FED's job is to lead the economy through periods of expansion (the business cycle), 1983-2001, the SPENDING CYCLE, for example, and then lead the economy through the SAVING CYCLE, which is nothing like the SPENDING CYCLE, is the opposite of the SPENDING CYCLE, with higher rates and the destruction of bad debt. The Spending Cycle was supposed to run from 2001-2019. However, FED 'intervention" has kept us from completing task of the SAVING CYCLE, which includes destruction of debt and generation of a nest-egg through interest rate gainst to be used as fuel for the nest expansion. As Japan shows, if you trick nature by protecting debt instead of destroyingn it, you don't get financial rebirth. And we are heading down the same road that Japan has taken -- so we will probably get a similar result.

    As bad as the armageddon in the 1930's was, we didn't die from it; we were reborn.

    The world that was created in the SPENDING CYCLE of 1911-1929 was destroyed from 1929-1947. THE world that was created in the SPENDING CYCLE of 1947-1965 was destroyed from 1965-1983. The world that was created in the SPENDING CYCLE of 1983-2001 is being destroyed from 2001-2019 -- against the worst intentions of the central banks. The plan is that worlds will be created and destroyed and re-created in the interest of evolution -- each new world is a little better model that the world that preceded it.

    The FED believes it can trick Nature by 'extending the Business Cycle' through the SAVING CYCLE by 'borrowing' or 'printing' extra money (stolen) from the future so we won't have to go through the pain of the Bear Market. That is folly, as we are about to discover. It is folly; and it also works against the Law of Nature, that uses the Winter Season as a force for evolution.

    Seasons are not 'mistakes'. The economy grows, gives its harvest, and then goes dormant during the Winter of the Economy. And we have to learn to deal with this, We don't like it. It makes us poor. We want to always be rich. We are like spoiled children. We want everything easy. But we don't get everything easy. We get tested by Winter. We get to rediscover our Souls during Winter. There is a plan to all of our earthly experience, a plan beyond all the food you can eat, all the pleasure you can experience, all the comfort you can manage. The Spirit and Soul become lazy and weak with too much comfort. So the Winter seasons are built in to the system to keep us from becoming too weak and too lazy, like the Romans before the barbarians appeared.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not The Same Alcoa [View article]
    If the Dollar keeps appreciating it will bring deflation to the world. Why did the FED spend trillions to sink the Dollar in QE's and ZIRP programs and policies. Because the Dollar kills inflation. If you want to grow debt, you attack the Dollar. But the Dollar has its own life. It was strong in the early 1980's and the result was the Latin American and Mexican default crisis. It was strong 1998-2002: Asian Crisis, Russian Default Crisis, Nasdaq Bubble Bursts; it was strong in 2008-9: global economy collapse.

    What the world NEEDS but does not necessarily want is the destruction of the global debt bubble. Debt needs to be wiped out everywhere, through default, bankkruptcy, or payment. The world is stuck now -- it can't get back to zero, without help from a strong Dollar. But twe are afraid of this experience, because it will be painful and frightening. But it is what we need.
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Financial Folly Lurking Beneath Yellen's Patient Lack Of Impatience [View article]
    "Drinking poison to quench the thirst is a foolish and dangerous preoccupation."
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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