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Michael Clark

Michael Clark
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  • The Magic Of IBM Share Buybacks In 2 Charts [View article]
    I think that it a pretty good post, Archman.

    I shorted IBM in February. Not much profit yet. A new indicator I am working with (proprietary) says IBM is not a short yet. I'm still short anyway. Target: 122-125.
    Aug 11, 2015. 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reversing My Call, Stock Is A Buy Once Again [View article]
    I have AAPL as a HOLD. I did not sell AAPL. However, the general market is a large concern. There has been a major deterioration in the markets since June.

    I work with a proprietary indicator I'm calling the Maginot Line at the moment, with the understanding that as long as an issue stay above or equal to -7, the Maginot Line, using this indicator, it is still a buy.

    Look at the instablog below to see how this Maginot line works, and looks.

    AAPL has been above or equal to this Maginot Line since April 2013. It still is above this sell line.

    The instablog below shows the current good news for AAPL. It's not all good news. AAPL's trend is not far from breaking through support.

    From the instablog, regarding the general market deterioration:

    "We also use our Maginot Line as a lens upon the market generally. We keep a database of some 609 stocks (no inverse ETFS included) to get a sense of where the (NASDAQ:LONG) market is and where it might be headed. We compute how many of these 609 stocks are equal to or above negative 7 (essentially buys) versus those below -7 (essentially sells). In this database, the number of stocks above or equal to -7 Maginot Line reading is 372 Bullish, 237 Bearish.

    The average of the 609 stock database is -8.15 (so, this is a kind of 'sell signal on the market, below -7, the Maginot Line buying threshold).

    We also keep a record of our of our best trading systems, which we call EMV (Ease of Movement Variable) REMAKE, which is designed to describe the ease of movement (up and/or down). This is an intermediate-term trading system. We keep a running record of the number of these 609 issues that are giving BUY signals, SHORTSELL signals, or FLAT (out of the market) signals.

    On June 4, 2015, the Bullish Ratio (Long positions against Short positions, Flat positions left out) was 72.64% (223 Long positions versus 84 Short positions). Today that has shrunk to 47.12%, net short -- 147 Long positions, 165 Short positions, with 297 flat or neutral or 'out of the market.

    I guess the message from this would be to favor short positions here, which I am doing. Once the FED raises rates, then all hell is going to break loose, especially with heavy debt-holders in stocks (margin) and in other assets -- especially among those foreigners holding US Dollar-denominated debt. Appreciation of the US Dollar will eventually force another default crisis among those who borrowed too heavily during the QE cheap-Dollar orgy of borrowing, which borrowers now must cover their short against the Dollar with ever appreciating Dollar costs...."

    So the news for AAPL is still good; the news for the market is not so good.
    Aug 10, 2015. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Nascent Stock Market In Trouble [View article]
    I agree with you. China has learned how to inflate debt bubbles, and now how to try to protect them from all those Nobel Prize winning American economists who are mostly friends of the FED.

    I don't throw stones at China. But I think China is wrestling with an angry aligator. Americans will wake up at some point, and find the ravenous beast staring them down, in the process of eating them.

    That is how the global economy dies -- it is never pretty.
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Strong Quarterly Performance, But Stay On The Sidelines [View article]
    Nice move for RIG. But nothing has changed long-term. Oil can't go up unless the Dollar is going down. Long-term that can't happen as long as the FED is talking about higher interest rates.
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Strong Quarterly Performance, But Stay On The Sidelines [View article]
    OIL will not recover until the FED intervenes to weaken the US Dollar. And the FED is talking about raising interest rates, for the first time in years. Oil and the Dollar are substance and shadow. When the Dollar rises, Oil goes down; when the Dollar fall, Oil rises.

    So, oil bulls need to pray for more QE. QE, as well as being a back door bailout for the banks, was a back door bailout for the global debt bubble, and for the commodities bull market, because QE crushed the US Dollar. No QE; higher interest rates; oil won't get up off the canvas for years.

    Here's a long instablog I wrote weeks ago about the Strong Dollar. Note especially the Dollar/Oil chart down the page showing the perfect shadow contango danced by Oil and the US Dollar.
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Kind Of 'Improvement' Does The Fed Want? [View article]
    Thanks. You can be there too.
    Aug 9, 2015. 11:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Newmont Mining Is Down 40% In 2 Months [View article]
    Look at the technical picture of XAU and IAU in this instablog. Still falling. And more to fall.
    Aug 9, 2015. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude, gold look to end July with a bang [View news story]
    Should have read "Look to End July with a Bong".

    How bad is gold's technical picture. Look at the IAU chart in this report. We're not even close to a bottom:
    Aug 9, 2015. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Nascent Stock Market In Trouble [View article]
    I'm LONG FXP, Short China ETF. This report shows why:
    Aug 9, 2015. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Simple Math Behind Transocean [View article]
    I agree. RIG bolted up 12% on better than expected earnings (not great earnings) but its technical picture is still negative. See the fifth chart down in this report:
    Aug 9, 2015. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Strong Quarterly Performance, But Stay On The Sidelines [View article]
    I have to agree: stay on the sidelines. The instablog below shows a very effective technical indicator I have that says RIG's 12% gain is a false move up. I'm short and stayed short. Third chart down in the article.
    Aug 9, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Magic Of IBM Share Buybacks In 2 Charts [View article]
    Well said, Michael. Evolution tests skill at adaptation. Socialism for the rich (ZIRP, NIRP, QE) fixes the system in favor of the rich, in favor of the status quo, eliminates risk and therefore evolution.
    Aug 9, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Magic Of IBM Share Buybacks In 2 Charts [View article]
    I don't think it is clear that you want geeks running your technology company. You definitely want them working for your company -- but running it? Geeks tend to be one-dimensional. Has business become this one-dimensional? Perhaps that is a problem.
    Aug 9, 2015. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Magic Of IBM Share Buybacks In 2 Charts [View article]
    Comparing FB with IBM is like comparing the poster-child of a NASDAQ Bubble to a old tarr who can't find his way back home from the high seas.

    FB is really not the yardstick of the great American company is it? It's a fad, for a people who believe there is no life after high-school, who want to be the star of their own reality television show. FB is a serial reality show, for hedonistic vain star-worshippers, who want to pretend their own life is filled with stardom. FB is for the millions of people in the world who want to star in their own magazine. Is vanity-exploitation a good buisiness plan? Perhaps it is, in the brave new world where everything is possible, but nothing is probable.

    We seem to be at a transition point. IBM is trying to make this transition. FB may simply be the transition point. Perhaps FB will endure. I mean, maybe people really need psychologically their own high-school annual to showcase their lives and their triumphs, and tragedies. I think FB is the logical outcome of the Oprah-Mentality. I'm not sure it will endure the loss of affluence into which we are coming.
    Aug 9, 2015. 07:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stepping Back From GDP [View article]
    What if spending (which GDP measures) is only half the story? What if saving is the other half of the story (which GDP misses, demonizes, in fact)?

    My view is that there is a Spending Cycle, otherwise known as the Business Cycle (1911-1929, 1947-1965, 1985-2001...), which thrives is descending interest rates and on easy debt, and there is a shadow side, the other side of the coin, a Saving Cycle, during which time higher rates are required to help provide the investment income through which the populace, indebted in the Spending Cycle, pays off its debts. Spending Cycles are times when the economy cannot grow. Lower rates in a non-growth season do not make sense. Higher rates reward saving, reward an abstinent from new debt during the non-growth season, and shift society's rewards away from the Speculative Class back to the mass.

    Each Season lasts 18 years. There is a time to reward speculation; there is a time to reward saving and savers.

    Leaders watching only GDP will see only 1/2 of the world, will be blind every 36 years for 18 years, attempting to use a gauge which only measures one half of the cycle. I believe this is what we have. Common sense tells you that a society that saves is a society that will be empowered. NOTE: I am not talking about the absolute of spending vs. saving -- but the Biblical wisdom of Ecclesiastes: There is a time for spending and a time for saving.

    Our leaders are cyclopian. They are giants with one eye.

    The Left-Brain, the Day-Cycle Brain, measures and understands details. The Right-Brain, the Night-Cycle Brain, measures and understands principles as universals. We are idolators of the Left-Brain only, causality, details. We need more balance. We need to reascend back into the universals, so we can see again how all these details fit into the whole picture.
    Aug 9, 2015. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment