WEEKLY APPLE COMPUTER UPDATE: APPLE IS STILL A SHORTSELL. WELCOME BACK TO THE CURRENCY WARS, BRITISH POUND. [View instapost]
Thanks, Basehitz. I'll check out his speech. I think people always want to think the best of other people, that everyone wants what is best, and tries to play to the common rules. Of course that isn't true. The powerful people want a fixed game, where they always win -- not a fair playing field.
More on AIG Q4 earnings: Book value/share (excluding AOCI) of $57.87, +15.5% Y/Y. P&C division loss of $945M thanks to $2B Sandy hit - the company posted an operating profit of $290M even with that. Premiums written of $7.8B, flat Y/Y. Life and Retirement income of $1.1B vs. $912M a year ago. Conference call at 8 ET tomorrow. Shares +3.7% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Very funny headline. AIG 'excluding the cost of Sandy'.....
But Sandy is one of the costs of doing business. Of course, all businesses to well if we exclude the costs of doing buisness...
20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
Futuristics: You seem threatened by his ideas. Is this fear in you, turing into intolerance?
Don't blame the 'negative thinkers' -- blame those leaders who ruined our economy with cheaper and cheaper money for years -- so the banks could get richer and richer.
20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
Great report. You see what I see. Debt is a deal with the devil. If our leaders have no other way to grow the economy than through debt, which is clandestine (invisible) inflation, and is a form of imprisoning their own people, instead of providing them with higher salaries, then they (we) get what they deserve.
The countdown begins to the Fed trotting out members to walk back yesterday's FOMC minutes after the big miss on the Philly Fed Index. New Orders fell to -7.8 from -4.3. Prices paid 8.9 vs. 14.7. Six-month indicators actually improved though, rising to 32.1 from 29.2, the 3rd consecutive increase. (full report) [View news story]
You're right. It's the unwind that makes it all break down.
Here's a story from Moneyweek about BB's hero in Japan from the 1930's. He did QE, ZIRP, yen devaluation and saved Japan from the Great Depression. That is, he saved Japan for a while, until he tried to unwind his massive spending program. The hyperinflation followed, attempts to control spending, and his own assassination.
http://bit.ly/Z6UFp1 ____ The finance minister at the time (the 1930's in Japan) was Korekiyo Takahashi, a man who it seems is something of a hero to Ben Bernanke – in 2003, Bernanke referred to him as having “brilliantly rescued Japan from the Great Depression through reflationary policies in the early 1930s”.
You’ll be wondering how he did this – given how tricky rescuing economies from deflationary pressures appears to be these days. Simple really... He took Japan off the gold standard (allowing the yen to float freely), outlawed the conversion of paper currency to gold, slashed interest rates to the bone, enacted massive government spending and made it legally possible for the Bank of Japan to buy and hang on to government bonds (hello QE). It worked.
Equities boomed, the yen collapsed, exports soared and growth hit 6%. Then Takahashi started trying to get out. And it stopped working – his attempt to reverse some of the QE in 1935 resulted in a failed auction, something that told him the deficit spending had to come to an end. Unfortunately for him, most of the spending was going on warfare and the military didn’t much fancy any spending cuts.
The result? An irritable group of young officers, keen not to see the flow of public cash to their cause diminished in any way, hacked the 82-year-old finance minister to death....
A Reply To Barry Ritholtz's Secular Bear Question [View article]
Bull markets always begin with high interest rates COMING DOWN. They never begin with rock bottom interest rates being held down by an overspending government entity, trying to lure people into stocks, seduce them into stocks, because they are terrified if buyers don't come we will fall into the global depression abyss.
Central Banks are desperate to stave off the Great Depression. That is not the soil in which secular bull markets are planted.
Interest rates have to soar. The Great Depression has to flush out backrupt companies and individuals. Then we'll be getting closer to the next secular bull market.
Copper investors are spooked after China authorities took steps to ease inflationary pressures, tightening liquidity by reversing policy on repos and draining $4.8B from the system. The move has affected shares of Freeport McMoRan (FCX -2.3%) and Southern Copper (SCCO -2.3%); China equities (FXI -2.1%) also are under pressure. [View news story]
Currency wars. QE in America, Europe, and UK -- and now Japan -- exports inflation to China.
Stock Market Secular Bear Remains In Control [View instapost]
Stock market secular trends typically last from 10 to 20 years, depending upon the nature of underlying structural economic trends. ___ Erik: I admire your work. I believe God geometrizes. Plato believed that also. As did Kepler. I love your chart of Secular Bears and Bulls and it almost lines up eactly with my own understanding.
These 36 years cycles (18 up and 18 down) carry back into the 1700s.
I realize this working from universals down to particulars does not fit well with our rational scientific process, which like to work with particulars....sometimes (rarely) arriving at universals.
Day Cycles (Secular Bull expansions) are about attachment to details and particulars of Matter; Night-Cycles (Secular Bear deflations) are about a drawing away from material attachments, a looking down on matter to see universal patterns.
History almost always brings masters of these two schools of thought into the world at the same time, oddly:
Confucius (Day-Cycle: pragmatic focus on details); Lao-Tse (Night-Cycle: idealistic focus on universals)
Aristotle (Day-Cycle: pragmatic focus on details); Plato (Night-Cycle: idealistic focus on universals)
Freud (Day-Cycle: pragmatic focus on details); Jung (Night-Cycle: idealistic focus on universals).
The methods of Freud, Aristotle, Confucius lead to Mental growth, intellectual HEIGHT; the methods of Jung, Plato, Lao-Tse lead to DEPTH of Soul, or Wisdom.
Day-Cycles are about external world growth (matter); Night-Cycles are about internal world growth (spirit or anti-matter).
Stock Market Secular Bear Remains In Control [View instapost]
The American Dream, the American Life-Style, is unsustainable. My father bought out house for about 30% of his salary. My mother took care of raising the family. We substituted this picture of health for one in which both parents have to work in order to afford housing. The Federal Reserve has to squat on interest rates to keep them from rising or there will be a huge housing default epidemic. Banks had to offer new mortgages that were destined to fail to sustain this way of life. This policy made the banks rich and made nearly all Americans debt-slaves. What kind of leadership is this? Bernanke continues to use his fake policies to try to sustain the unsustainable. Many Americans bought houses they could not afford and now are hanging by a thread, using food stamps, or buying food with credit cards. This is a catastrophe. Where is the soul of our leadership.
It appears that the American Dream now is on the side of the 10%; and the 90% are paying with their blood to keep prices inflated so the 10% can continue to get rich. If this doesn't end, America will have a civil war.
Day Cycles of expansion and inflation separate the classes in terms of wealth; Night-Cycles of deflation are supposed to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor. IF the rich resist this, through monetary policy of the central banks Western Civilization will come to disaster.
A Reply To Barry Ritholtz's Secular Bear Question [View article]
Not over. 2001-2019. No real bottom until 2019.
Yes, stocks have been going sideways for many years. Look at the Gold/Dow Ratio -- this shows a 'real' picture (inflation adjusted, with gold as the anti-dollar) of secular bear markets, where dollar-strength is sacrificed for the appearance of asset value growth.
Magic show only. The Dollar has lost 20% of its value since 2000.
Inflation Update - Deflation, Inflation, Or Disinflation? [View article]
Inflation: 1992-2001.
Disinflation: 2001-2010.
Deflation: 2010-2019.
Reflation: 2019-2028.
WEEKLY APPLE COMPUTER UPDATE: APPLE IS STILL A SHORTSELL. WELCOME BACK TO THE CURRENCY WARS, BRITISH POUND. [View instapost]
More on AIG Q4 earnings: Book value/share (excluding AOCI) of $57.87, +15.5% Y/Y. P&C division loss of $945M thanks to $2B Sandy hit - the company posted an operating profit of $290M even with that. Premiums written of $7.8B, flat Y/Y. Life and Retirement income of $1.1B vs. $912M a year ago. Conference call at 8 ET tomorrow. Shares +3.7% AH. (PR) [View news story]
But Sandy is one of the costs of doing business. Of course, all businesses to well if we exclude the costs of doing buisness...
Bearish Pressure Increases On The Euro [View article]
20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
Don't blame the 'negative thinkers' -- blame those leaders who ruined our economy with cheaper and cheaper money for years -- so the banks could get richer and richer.
20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
The countdown begins to the Fed trotting out members to walk back yesterday's FOMC minutes after the big miss on the Philly Fed Index. New Orders fell to -7.8 from -4.3. Prices paid 8.9 vs. 14.7. Six-month indicators actually improved though, rising to 32.1 from 29.2, the 3rd consecutive increase. (full report) [View news story]
Here's a story from Moneyweek about BB's hero in Japan from the 1930's. He did QE, ZIRP, yen devaluation and saved Japan from the Great Depression. That is, he saved Japan for a while, until he tried to unwind his massive spending program. The hyperinflation followed, attempts to control spending, and his own assassination.
http://bit.ly/Z6UFp1
____
The finance minister at the time (the 1930's in Japan) was Korekiyo Takahashi, a man who it seems is something of a hero to Ben Bernanke – in 2003, Bernanke referred to him as having “brilliantly rescued Japan from the Great Depression through reflationary policies in the early 1930s”.
You’ll be wondering how he did this – given how tricky rescuing economies from deflationary pressures appears to be these days. Simple really... He took Japan off the gold standard (allowing the yen to float freely), outlawed the conversion of paper currency to gold, slashed interest rates to the bone, enacted massive government spending and made it legally possible for the Bank of Japan to buy and hang on to government bonds (hello QE). It worked.
Equities boomed, the yen collapsed, exports soared and growth hit 6%. Then Takahashi started trying to get out. And it stopped working – his attempt to reverse some of the QE in 1935 resulted in a failed auction, something that told him the deficit spending had to come to an end. Unfortunately for him, most of the spending was going on warfare and the military didn’t much fancy any spending cuts.
The result? An irritable group of young officers, keen not to see the flow of public cash to their cause diminished in any way, hacked the 82-year-old finance minister to death....
Fed Says Midwest Farmland Increased 16% In 2012 [View article]
A Reply To Barry Ritholtz's Secular Bear Question [View article]
Central Banks are desperate to stave off the Great Depression. That is not the soil in which secular bull markets are planted.
Interest rates have to soar. The Great Depression has to flush out backrupt companies and individuals. Then we'll be getting closer to the next secular bull market.
Copper investors are spooked after China authorities took steps to ease inflationary pressures, tightening liquidity by reversing policy on repos and draining $4.8B from the system. The move has affected shares of Freeport McMoRan (FCX -2.3%) and Southern Copper (SCCO -2.3%); China equities (FXI -2.1%) also are under pressure. [View news story]
A Reply To Barry Ritholtz's Secular Bear Question [View article]
Stock Market Secular Bear Remains In Control [View instapost]
___
Erik: I admire your work. I believe God geometrizes. Plato believed that also. As did Kepler. I love your chart of Secular Bears and Bulls and it almost lines up eactly with my own understanding.
1911-1929 Secular Bull
1929-1947 Secular Bear
1947-1965 Secular Bull
1965 - 1983 Secular Bear
1983 -2001 Secular Bull
2001-2019 Secular Bear
2019 - 2037 Secular Bull
These 36 years cycles (18 up and 18 down) carry back into the 1700s.
I realize this working from universals down to particulars does not fit well with our rational scientific process, which like to work with particulars....sometimes (rarely) arriving at universals.
Day Cycles (Secular Bull expansions) are about attachment to details and particulars of Matter; Night-Cycles (Secular Bear deflations) are about a drawing away from material attachments, a looking down on matter to see universal patterns.
History almost always brings masters of these two schools of thought into the world at the same time, oddly:
Confucius (Day-Cycle: pragmatic focus on details); Lao-Tse (Night-Cycle: idealistic focus on universals)
Aristotle (Day-Cycle: pragmatic focus on details); Plato (Night-Cycle: idealistic focus on universals)
Freud (Day-Cycle: pragmatic focus on details); Jung (Night-Cycle: idealistic focus on universals).
The methods of Freud, Aristotle, Confucius lead to Mental growth, intellectual HEIGHT; the methods of Jung, Plato, Lao-Tse lead to DEPTH of Soul, or Wisdom.
Day-Cycles are about external world growth (matter); Night-Cycles are about internal world growth (spirit or anti-matter).
Stock Market Secular Bear Remains In Control [View instapost]
It appears that the American Dream now is on the side of the 10%; and the 90% are paying with their blood to keep prices inflated so the 10% can continue to get rich. If this doesn't end, America will have a civil war.
Day Cycles of expansion and inflation separate the classes in terms of wealth; Night-Cycles of deflation are supposed to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor. IF the rich resist this, through monetary policy of the central banks Western Civilization will come to disaster.
A Reply To Barry Ritholtz's Secular Bear Question [View article]
A Reply To Barry Ritholtz's Secular Bear Question [View article]
Yes, stocks have been going sideways for many years. Look at the Gold/Dow Ratio -- this shows a 'real' picture (inflation adjusted, with gold as the anti-dollar) of secular bear markets, where dollar-strength is sacrificed for the appearance of asset value growth.
Magic show only. The Dollar has lost 20% of its value since 2000.