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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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  • CGTS WEEKEND GALLERY: Short QIHU; Long HRS. And Others.

    Hard to find fault with this market, unless you look underneath her skirts. Bulls, don't dare look under this market's skirts, if you wish to be blithely endowed with optimism.

    Every weekend we look at all our charts, primarily as monthly charts. We look for what we call our 'secret weapon'. Sometimes one can actually see the struggle between buyers and sellers in the tension of a trendline. When a stock is supposed to go down, and does not: this is tension, and the sellers are being overwhelmed by the buyers.

    It works in both directions: we have charts here that show quite clearly a buyer-seller battle being waged and won.

    Each weekend we look for charts showing this short-term turning point. Actually, in the monthly charts these are not necessarily so short-term skirmishes.

    It's much easier to demonstrate this in pictures than explain it in worlds. We will show you our two favorite pictures from this weekend, one short, and one long.

    Favorite shortsell picture: QIHU. Look in the second pane down at the short-term trend indicator, T.5 Simple, marked in the chart. Essentially what is happening here is a pull-back rally in a bear market picture is failing; buyers are being overwhelmed by sellers. What should be attempting to correct back up -- but sellers are much stronger than buyers.

    (click to enlarge)

    Favorite long position: HRS, Harris Corp. No sellers here.

    (click to enlarge)

    We have other pictures of stock we like (or don't like) for the same reason.

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    We add a US Dollar picture simply because we regard this as the key to our future. We expect the US Dollar to deflate the global debt bubble, and begin the process we should have begun long ago.

    (click to enlarge)

    For those who like ideas with their pictures:

    The Business Cycle has two sides: the SPENDING CYCLE (1911-1929; 1947-1965; 1983-2001...) and the SAVING CYCLE (1929-1947; 1965-1983; 2001-2019...). Negative interest rates are the very clear sign that the central banks want to repress the SAVING CYCLE, they are one eye blind.

    What does the SAVING CYCLE do for us? It puts inflation to bed; it destroys the debt cycle, which has ended; as interest rates continue rising, it makes us rich through real money, savings, with a much stronger currency; and it helps everyone gain more security as a SAVING CULTURE; it helps to build a national 'nest egg', which will become the investment fuel of the next Business Cycle (2019-2038).

    Our leaders have been doing everything (on a global scale) to pervert this natural cycle. It is if they believe that depriving us of sleep will make us stronger and healthier. Why do they do this? They are protecting those (the "Landlord Class") at the top of the pyramid -- banks get rich off of debt; they want the DEBT CULTURE (the SPENDING CULTURE) to be perpetual. This is the flaw of capitalism. Capitalism (the Culture of Greed) once lit as a fire cannot endure the thought of diminishing returns -- and all of creation is based of the dual process of breathing (expansion, the SPENDING CYCLE, expiration, breathing-out) followed by (contraction, the SAVING CYCLE, inspiration, breathing -in). Interesting words: expiration is breathing-out, which implies its periodical nature, its mortality; inspiration is breathing-in, which word implies divine guidance, regeneration, new vision or reality, and rebirth.

    Those who run our world refuse to accept those whole picture of reality. They accept the two sides: but one side (the side they stand on) is intelligence, truth, reality, while the other side is ignorance, superstition, fantasy. Their world is fixed, fastened, dead; and does not flow. In truth, these two sides are always changing, morphing, flowing into one another. There is a place in-between these two sides, a place, an island, where both sides meet and intermarry: call it dawn, or call it dusk. Dawn is where these two sides meet before flowing out into the waking world, the scientific view, reason, masculine dominance, the so-called 'real world' of the senses, the world we can measure with machinery (think of the Renaissance Age in history). Dusk is where these two sides meet before flowing in to the 'eternal world', the dream world, the Darkness, into the world that cannot be measured by machinery. The Inspirational world. Think of the Dusk as the Romantic Age.

    Noon, in this picture, is where unbalanced Science and Technology and belief in the senses as being everything rule. Empirical logic. Midnight, in this picture, is where unbalanced Religion and abandonment of technology and belief that the senses are inferior to the power of the synthetic mind (think of the dreaming stage -- the mind as eyes on the world, a tale told in a symbolic language) -- this is a journey back to God, as the Scientific Stage is a journey away from God.

    Both Noon and Midnight are illusions (unbalanced, polarized, dangerous, militant, fighting wars against itself, the side of itself it wants to repress); Dawn and Dusk are the sacred islands of truth. Dusk and dawn are mirror-images of each other. But, in Time, nothing lasts: Dawn flows into unbalanced Science and Empire, and Individualism; Dusk flows into unbalanced Religion and Introversion of the Culture and some form of Collectivism (primitive Christianity was such a form). Civilization at Noon. Culture at Midnight. Culture is close to the earth, deep and dark. Civilization is far from the earth, high and bright. Noon is the fruiting of the plant. Midnight is the seeding of the plant, the next round of creation. The SEED and the 'nest egg' are connected. The seed IS a nest-egg, from which the next cycle of world-creation comes.

    You cannot have only the seasons you like. The seasons go together, work together, flow into each other. Repressing Winter and preserving Summer does not bring Spring. Negative interest rates are an attempt to repress Winter and preserve Summer. Winter is the season in which all the material structures we have built are stripped and crushed. Our institution disintegrate. Trees get stripped of fruit and leaves, stand naked before God, Space, Eternity. In 2019 we will stand naked before God, again. As we did in 1947 (the re-creation of three new countries: China, Israel and India), as we did in 1983 (near world-war between America, England and Russia; and the subsequent collapse of the Iron Curtain).

    Our leaders are blind to how the world works. They see the world as an object or series of objects (the Scientific View), instead of a world of processes and patterns, moving and ever-changing, not fixed. The world is both an object and a wave. During the Day-Cycle (waking reality, THE SPENDING CYCLE) the wave collapses into the object; during the Night-Cycle (dreaming reality, THE SAVING CYCLE) the object collapses back into the wave.

    Mar 01 10:49 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • NEW CGTS SHORT-TERM TRADING SYSTEM

    FRIDAY 20 FEBRUARY 2014

    We're very excited about a new trading indicator that we have been able to use effectively in testing as a short-term trading system, and as a longer-term trading system. We are not going to get into the formula or the mechanics of the trade tonight -- but we do want to introduce it.

    After trading Friday we ran a report and found that this new Bounce Trade System gave a buy signal on, among other issues, AXAS, Abraxas Petroleum. We're not necessarily believers that oil has found a bottom. But we are intrigued by this trade.

    Here's the report:

    Symbol

    Close

    Position

    New Trade

    Company

         

    BBD

    12.88

    Short

     

    Banco Brandesco SA

    CAAS

    6.78

    Short

    Enter Short

    Chinese Auto Daily

    CTIC

    2.28

    Short

     

    Cell Therapeutics

    DWTI

    110.39

    Short

    Enter Short

    * Crude Oil Bearish ETF 3x

    EDU

    20.01

    Short

     

    New Oriental Educations and Technology

    EWZ

    34.87

    Short

     

    Brazil ETF

    GAZ

    1.55

    Short

    Enter Short

    Natural Gas ETF

    MDRX

    12.83

    Short

     

    ALLSCRIPTS HEALTH SOLUTIONS

    MXWL

    6.87

    Short

    Enter Short

    Maxwell Technologies

    NOV

    54.46

    Short

     

    National Oilwell Varco

    RS

    57.76

    Short

     

    Reliance Steel

    SAN

    7.41

    Short

     

    Banco Santander

    THC

    44.85

    Short

     

    Tenet Healthcare

    RUBCAD=X

    0.02

    Flat

    Exit Long

    Russian Ruble/Canadian Dollar

    RXD

    13.42

    Flat

    Exit Short

    Short Healthcare ETF Daily

    AXAS

    3.16

    Long

    Enter Long

    Abraxis Petro

    COCO

    0.027

    Long

     

    Corinthian Colleges

    NANO

    17.39

    Long

     

    Nanometrics Inc

    UWTI

    3.2

    Long

    Enter Long

    * Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x

    (click to enlarge)

    Gains seem small. Trades are short. Can this be an effective vehicle for trading -- are the gains large enough?

    The system seems quite accurate. 231 trades; 225 winning, 6 losing. 97.4% accuracy.

    Average gain: .35 points per trade.

    This system trades equally effectively, long and short. Small losses: 5.4% being the largest.

        

    Test Range: 5/15/91 to 2/20/15

      
        

    Net P&L: 80.51

      

    Percent Net P&L: 2,300.14%

      
        

    Number of Trades: 231

      

    Average P&L per Trade: 0.35

     

    Percent Winning Trades: 97.40%

     
        

    Total Days in Test: 5986

      

    Percent Days in Market: 16.04%

     

    Average P&L per Day: 0.01

      
        

    Max Drawdown: 1.00

      

    Reward/Risk Ratio: 80.505

      
        

    Buy & Hold P&L: -0.34

      

    vs. B&H P&L: 80.85

      

    vs. B&H Percent P&L: 2,309.86%

     

    vs. B&H Reward/Risk Ratio: 80.523

     
        

    Current Position: Long

      

    Open Trade P&L: 0.00

      

    Traded Last Day: Enter Long

      

    Look at the record of the trades: 8 trading days, 25 trading days, 9, 13, 3, 7 20, 21.... Gains of nearly 8% for each of these first six trades.

    Entry Exit

       

    # Type Bars Date Date P&L Pts P&L % Reason for Exit

     

    ____ _____ ____ ________ ________ ___________ ________ _______________

         

    1 Short 8 05/28/91 06/07/91 +0.25 +7.69 Exit Short Rule

     

    2 Short 25 06/26/91 08/01/91 +0.25 +8.33 Exit Short Rule

     

    3 Long 9 09/29/92 10/12/92 +0.50 +7.69 Exit Long Rule

     

    4 Long 13 12/01/92 12/18/92 +0.50 +6.67 Exit Long Rule

     

    5 Long 3 12/28/92 12/31/92 +0.50 +6.67 Exit Long Rule

     

    6 Long 7 01/08/93 01/19/93 +0.50 +6.67 Exit Long Rule

     

    7 Long 20 02/23/93 03/23/93 +0.50 +7.14 Exit Long Rule

     

    8 Long 21 04/21/93 05/20/93 +0.63 +8.27 Exit Long Rule

     

    9 Long 6 06/15/93 06/23/93 +0.50 +6.06 Exit Long Rule

     

    10 Long 4 12/01/93 12/07/93 +0.38 +4.17 Exit Long Rule

     

    11 Long 3 12/17/93 12/22/93 +0.75 +7.69 Exit Long Rule

     

    12 Long 4 01/04/94 01/10/94 +0.38 +4.17 Exit Long Rule

     

    13 Long 4 04/25/94 05/02/94 +1.25 +11.90 Exit Long Rule

     

    14 Short 4 05/06/94 05/12/94 +0.12 +0.96 Exit Short Rule

     

    15 Short 4 05/17/94 05/23/94 +1.00 +7.55 Exit Short Rule

     

    16 Short 4 06/16/94 06/22/94 +0.62 +4.77 Exit Short Rule

     

    17 Short 14 01/10/95 01/30/95 +0.25 +2.56 Exit Short Rule

     

    18 Short 4 03/07/95 03/13/95 +0.62 +6.13 Exit Short Rule

     

    19 Short 4 05/02/95 05/08/95 -0.25 -2.86 Exit Short Rule

     

    20 Short 8 05/09/95 05/19/95 +0.56 +6.05 Exit Short Rule

     

    21 Short 5 06/30/95 07/10/95 +0.63 +7.20 Exit Short Rule

     

    22 Short 4 10/03/95 10/09/95 +1.25 +14.38 Exit Short Rule

     

    23 Short 11 11/06/95 11/21/95 +1.00 +13.79 Exit Short Rule

     

    24 Short 5 12/22/95 01/02/96 +0.38 +5.52 Exit Short Rule

     

    25 Long 3 04/04/96 04/10/96 -0.12 -2.34 Exit Long Rule

     

    26 Long 3 05/08/96 05/13/96 +0.50 +9.09 Exit Long Rule

     

    27 Long 1 06/11/96 06/12/96 +0.63 +9.52 Exit Long Rule

     

    28 Short 5 06/14/96 06/21/96 +0.38 +5.43 Exit Short Rule

     

    29 Short 4 07/03/96 07/10/96 +1.12 +15.73 Exit Short Rule

     

    30 Long 8 08/23/96 09/05/96 +0.50 +9.77 Exit Long Rule

     

    31 Long 4 09/18/96 09/24/96 +0.50 +9.77 Exit Long Rule

     

    32 Long 18 11/20/96 12/17/96 +0.50 +6.67 Exit Long Rule

     

    33 Long 4 01/02/97 01/08/97 +1.26 +13.10 Exit Long Rule

     

    34 Long 3 02/20/97 02/25/97 +1.13 +10.64 Exit Long Rule

     

    35 Long 8 06/10/97 06/20/97 +0.63 +4.94 Exit Long Rule

     

    36 Long 5 06/26/97 07/03/97 +0.75 +6.00 Exit Long Rule

     

    37 Long 9 08/12/97 08/25/97 +0.75 +5.45 Exit Long Rule

     

    38 Long 5 09/11/97 09/18/97 +1.32 +9.73 Exit Long Rule

     

    39 Long 9 09/25/97 10/08/97 +2.12 +15.14 Exit Long Rule

     

    40 Short 3 11/19/97 11/24/97 +1.19 +6.90 Exit Short Rule

     

    41 Short 2 12/09/97 12/11/97 +1.00 +6.35 Exit Short Rule

     

    42 Short 5 12/31/97 01/08/98 +1.00 +6.78 Exit Short Rule

     

    43 Short 2 01/20/98 01/22/98 +1.91 +14.98 Exit Short Rule

     

    44 Long 3 01/29/98 02/03/98 +0.50 +4.88 Exit Long Rule

     

    45 Short 4 02/09/98 02/13/98 +0.69 +5.84 Exit Short Rule

     

    46 Long 3 03/18/98 03/23/98 +0.86 +11.86 Exit Long Rule

     

    47 Long 3 05/13/98 05/18/98 +0.62 +6.61 Exit Long Rule

     

    48 Short 2 05/19/98 05/21/98 +0.50 +5.10 Exit Short Rule

     

    49 Long 6 07/30/98 08/07/98 +1.06 +18.43 Exit Long Rule

     

    50 Long 2 08/14/98 08/18/98 0.00 0.00 Exit Long Rule

     

    51 Long 4 09/01/98 09/08/98 +0.44 +7.91 Exit Long Rule

     

    52 Long 4 10/12/98 10/16/98 +0.19 +4.00 Exit Long Rule

     

    53 Short 3 11/13/98 11/18/98 +1.25 +17.86 Exit Short Rule

     

    54 Short 3 12/16/98 12/21/98 +0.25 +5.56 Exit Short Rule

     

    55 Short 1 12/31/98 01/04/99 +1.13 +25.80 Exit Short Rule

     

    56 Short 3 01/28/99 02/02/99 +0.60 +20.62 Exit Short Rule

     

    57 Short 1 03/26/99 03/29/99 +0.31 +15.05 Exit Short Rule

     

    58 Short 1 04/06/99 04/07/99 +0.19 +10.11 Exit Short Rule

     

    59 Long 3 05/05/99 05/10/99 +0.25 +12.50 Exit Long Rule

     

    60 Short 3 05/19/99 05/24/99 +0.16 +6.56 Exit Short Rule

     

    61 Long 4 07/02/99 07/09/99 +0.75 +70.75 Exit Long Rule

     

    62 Short 3 07/14/99 07/19/99 -0.12 -6.38 Exit Short Rule

     

    63 Long 3 08/12/99 08/17/99 +0.12 +6.38 Exit Long Rule

     

    64 Long 3 10/29/99 11/03/99 +0.12 +8.33 Exit Long Rule

     

    65 Short 1 12/21/99 12/22/99 +0.12 +10.71 Exit Short Rule

     

    66 Long 4 01/28/00 02/03/00 +0.07 +5.34 Exit Long Rule

     

    67 Long 2 02/16/00 02/18/00 +0.16 +11.94 Exit Long Rule

     

    68 Long 4 02/25/00 03/02/00 +0.24 +17.39 Exit Long Rule

     

    69 Short 2 03/08/00 03/10/00 +0.06 +2.29 Exit Short Rule

     

    70 Short 2 04/05/00 04/07/00 +0.44 +18.49 Exit Short Rule

     

    71 Short 18 04/20/00 05/17/00 +0.22 +12.57 Exit Short Rule

     

    72 Short 2 06/02/00 06/06/00 +0.12 +8.00 Exit Short Rule

     

    73 Long 2 06/09/00 06/13/00 +0.09 +6.52 Exit Long Rule

     

    74 Long 3 07/10/00 07/13/00 +0.15 +10.64 Exit Long Rule

     

    75 Long 1 08/04/00 08/07/00 +0.44 +25.14 Exit Long Rule

     

    76 Long 2 09/13/00 09/15/00 +0.75 +23.08 Exit Long Rule

     

    77 Long 4 11/01/00 11/07/00 +0.19 +6.09 Exit Long Rule

     

    78 Long 3 12/01/00 12/06/00 +0.50 +16.67 Exit Long Rule

     

    79 Long 4 01/11/01 01/18/01 +0.19 +5.07 Exit Long Rule

     

    80 Short 3 03/19/01 03/22/01 +0.50 +9.52 Exit Short Rule

     

    81 Short 4 03/28/01 04/03/01 +0.74 +14.12 Exit Short Rule

     

    82 Short 3 04/30/01 05/03/01 +0.38 +8.35 Exit Short Rule

     

    83 Short 4 05/22/01 05/29/01 +0.20 +4.09 Exit Short Rule

     

    84 Short 1 07/18/01 07/19/01 +0.21 +5.83 Exit Short Rule

     

    85 Short 5 08/15/01 08/22/01 +0.29 +8.55 Exit Short Rule

     

    86 Short 5 10/12/01 10/19/01 +0.11 +6.43 Exit Short Rule

     

    87 Long 4 11/23/01 11/29/01 +0.28 +26.17 Exit Long Rule

     

    88 Long 1 12/17/01 12/18/01 +0.19 +18.63 Exit Long Rule

     

    89 Short 3 01/08/02 01/11/02 +0.21 +14.00 Exit Short Rule

     

    90 Short 1 01/29/02 01/30/02 +0.13 +10.48 Exit Short Rule

     

    91 Long 2 03/06/02 03/08/02 +0.08 +8.00 Exit Long Rule

     

    92 Short 3 03/21/02 03/26/02 +0.15 +9.87 Exit Short Rule

     

    93 Short 5 04/15/02 04/22/02 +0.06 +5.08 Exit Short Rule

     

    94 Long 4 05/07/02 05/13/02 +0.02 +2.86 Exit Long Rule

     

    95 Short 8 05/17/02 05/30/02 +0.20 +22.73 Exit Short Rule

     

    96 Short 4 07/01/02 07/08/02 -0.03 -4.62 Exit Short Rule

     

    97 Long 2 08/08/02 08/12/02 +0.09 +19.15 Exit Long Rule

     

    98 Short 2 08/26/02 08/28/02 +0.31 +34.44 Exit Short Rule

     

    99 Long 2 08/30/02 09/04/02 +0.04 +5.48 Exit Long Rule

     

    100 Short 1 09/05/02 09/06/02 -0.04 -5.48 Exit Short Rule

     

    101 Short 1 10/17/02 10/18/02 +0.05 +7.14 Exit Short Rule

     

    102 Long 2 11/19/02 11/21/02 +0.06 +10.53 Exit Long Rule

     

    103 Short 4 11/27/02 12/04/02 +0.11 +13.92 Exit Short Rule

     

    104 Long 2 01/22/03 01/24/03 +0.10 +15.38 Exit Long Rule

     

    105 Long 1 02/14/03 02/18/03 +0.13 +17.57 Exit Long Rule

     

    106 Short 4 02/26/03 03/04/03 +0.06 +6.59 Exit Short Rule

     

    107 Long 3 04/29/03 05/02/03 +0.08 +12.90 Exit Long Rule

     

    108 Long 2 05/09/03 05/13/03 +0.10 +15.38 Exit Long Rule

     

    109 Short 3 06/04/03 06/09/03 +0.14 +10.85 Exit Short Rule

     

    110 Long 4 07/28/03 08/01/03 +0.07 +8.33 Exit Long Rule

     

    111 Long 3 09/30/03 10/03/03 +0.13 +14.44 Exit Long Rule

     

    112 Long 4 10/21/03 10/27/03 +0.05 +5.56 Exit Long Rule

     

    113 Long 8 11/21/03 12/04/03 +0.16 +17.20 Exit Long Rule

     

    114 Long 3 01/12/04 01/15/04 +0.15 +9.74 Exit Long Rule

     

    115 Short 2 02/03/04 02/05/04 +0.69 +23.39 Exit Short Rule

     

    116 Long 3 02/06/04 02/11/04 +0.15 +5.51 Exit Long Rule

     

    117 Long 4 02/24/04 03/01/04 +0.19 +7.17 Exit Long Rule

     

    118 Short 4 06/18/04 06/24/04 +0.08 +4.73 Exit Short Rule

     

    119 Long 3 08/26/04 08/31/04 +0.02 +1.25 Exit Long Rule

     

    120 Long 2 10/05/04 10/07/04 +0.23 +10.60 Exit Long Rule

     

    121 Long 4 10/14/04 10/20/04 +0.16 +7.31 Exit Long Rule

     

    122 Short 2 11/09/04 11/11/04 +0.03 +1.09 Exit Short Rule

     

    123 Short 7 12/17/04 12/29/04 +0.11 +4.44 Exit Short Rule

     

    124 Short 7 01/10/05 01/20/05 +0.13 +5.51 Exit Short Rule

     

    125 Long 4 01/26/05 02/01/05 +0.23 +11.17 Exit Long Rule

     

    126 Long 2 02/17/05 02/22/05 +0.24 +11.54 Exit Long Rule

     

    127 Long 10 03/14/05 03/29/05 +0.13 +5.04 Exit Long Rule

     

    128 Short 4 04/05/05 04/11/05 +0.25 +8.06 Exit Short Rule

     

    129 Short 4 05/05/05 05/11/05 +0.16 +6.30 Exit Short Rule

     

    130 Long 2 07/20/05 07/22/05 +0.41 +11.68 Exit Long Rule

     

    131 Long 3 08/19/05 08/24/05 +0.51 +12.59 Exit Long Rule

     

    132 Short 1 10/05/05 10/06/05 +1.64 +19.88 Exit Short Rule

     

    133 Short 4 11/04/05 11/10/05 +0.81 +11.39 Exit Short Rule

     

    134 Long 2 01/03/06 01/05/06 +0.26 +4.68 Exit Long Rule

     

    135 Long 2 01/12/06 01/17/06 +0.72 +13.19 Exit Long Rule

     

    136 Short 5 03/14/06 03/21/06 +0.30 +5.12 Exit Short Rule

     

    137 Short 5 03/28/06 04/04/06 +0.55 +9.18 Exit Short Rule

     

    138 Short 4 04/24/06 04/28/06 0.00 0.00 Exit Short Rule

     

    139 Short 4 07/06/06 07/12/06 +0.27 +5.79 Exit Short Rule

     

    140 Short 6 07/31/06 08/08/06 +0.34 +7.59 Exit Short Rule

     

    141 Short 15 08/21/06 09/12/06 +0.42 +9.98 Exit Short Rule

     

    142 Long 3 11/22/06 11/28/06 +0.33 +9.30 Exit Long Rule

     

    143 Short 4 12/01/06 12/07/06 +0.08 +1.96 Exit Short Rule

     

    144 Short 8 01/31/07 02/12/07 +0.24 +7.10 Exit Short Rule

     

    145 Long 5 04/09/07 04/16/07 +0.18 +6.04 Exit Long Rule

     

    146 Long 4 05/21/07 05/25/07 +0.57 +15.49 Exit Long Rule

     

    147 Long 11 06/04/07 06/19/07 +0.43 +10.97 Exit Long Rule

     

    148 Short 4 07/03/07 07/10/07 +0.14 +3.06 Exit Short Rule

     

    149 Short 5 08/14/07 08/21/07 +0.20 +5.06 Exit Short Rule

     

    150 Long 4 12/17/07 12/21/07 +0.25 +7.69 Exit Long Rule

     

    151 Long 4 03/20/08 03/27/08 +0.08 +2.50 Exit Long Rule

     

    152 Long 7 04/29/08 05/08/08 +0.23 +5.58 Exit Long Rule

     

    153 Long 1 05/19/08 05/20/08 +0.15 +3.46 Exit Long Rule

     

    154 Long 2 06/16/08 06/18/08 +0.40 +8.16 Exit Long Rule

     

    155 Long 4 06/25/08 07/01/08 +0.36 +7.27 Exit Long Rule

     

    156 Short 3 07/15/08 07/18/08 +0.24 +5.39 Exit Short Rule

     

    157 Short 6 08/12/08 08/20/08 +0.24 +6.82 Exit Short Rule

     

    158 Short 3 08/29/08 09/04/08 +0.52 +14.40 Exit Short Rule

     

    159 Short 4 09/22/08 09/26/08 +0.20 +6.31 Exit Short Rule

     

    160 Long 2 10/10/08 10/14/08 +0.17 +10.97 Exit Long Rule

     

    161 Short 3 11/03/08 11/06/08 +0.19 +9.45 Exit Short Rule

     

    162 Long 3 11/21/08 11/26/08 +0.08 +7.14 Exit Long Rule

     

    163 Short 2 12/02/08 12/04/08 +0.11 +9.32 Exit Short Rule

     

    164 Long 4 12/29/08 01/05/09 +0.27 +39.13 Exit Long Rule

     

    165 Short 4 01/07/09 01/13/09 +0.05 +4.00 Exit Short Rule

     

    166 Short 4 02/04/09 02/10/09 +0.12 +9.60 Exit Short Rule

     

    167 Short 1 03/04/09 03/05/09 +0.12 +13.79 Exit Short Rule

     

    168 Long 1 03/06/09 03/09/09 +0.05 +6.25 Exit Long Rule

     

    169 Long 1 03/17/09 03/18/09 +0.06 +6.06 Exit Long Rule

     

    170 Short 1 03/27/09 03/30/09 +0.12 +10.53 Exit Short Rule

     

    171 Short 2 04/16/09 04/20/09 +0.11 +11.11 Exit Short Rule

     

    172 Long 6 04/24/09 05/04/09 +0.11 +11.83 Exit Long Rule

     

    173 Short 3 06/03/09 06/08/09 +0.06 +5.17 Exit Short Rule

     

    174 Long 4 08/17/09 08/21/09 +0.12 +11.88 Exit Long Rule

     

    175 Long 3 09/03/09 09/09/09 +0.08 +7.41 Exit Long Rule

     

    176 Short 4 10/14/09 10/20/09 +0.08 +3.52 Exit Short Rule

     

    177 Short 2 11/06/09 11/10/09 +0.09 +5.06 Exit Short Rule

     

    178 Long 4 11/12/09 11/18/09 +0.36 +21.95 Exit Long Rule

     

    179 Long 2 12/14/09 12/16/09 +0.15 +8.57 Exit Long Rule

     

    180 Long 2 12/23/09 12/28/09 +0.14 +7.78 Exit Long Rule

     

    181 Long 3 02/09/10 02/12/10 +0.15 +7.94 Exit Long Rule

     

    182 Long 5 02/26/10 03/05/10 +0.11 +5.73 Exit Long Rule

     

    183 Long 3 05/10/10 05/13/10 +0.08 +2.87 Exit Long Rule

     

    184 Long 4 05/21/10 05/27/10 +0.18 +7.50 Exit Long Rule

     

    185 Long 2 07/02/10 07/07/10 +0.24 +8.82 Exit Long Rule

     

    186 Long 2 09/22/10 09/24/10 +0.13 +4.81 Exit Long Rule

     

    187 Long 18 12/06/10 12/31/10 +0.50 +12.29 Exit Long Rule

     

    188 Long 2 01/24/11 01/26/11 +0.37 +8.62 Exit Long Rule

     

    189 Long 6 02/08/11 02/16/11 +0.29 +6.33 Exit Long Rule

     

    190 Short 3 03/01/11 03/04/11 +0.08 +1.42 Exit Short Rule

     

    191 Short 4 04/01/11 04/07/11 +0.16 +2.82 Exit Short Rule

     

    192 Short 6 04/26/11 05/04/11 +0.66 +13.61 Exit Short Rule

     

    193 Short 2 05/12/11 05/16/11 +0.38 +8.72 Exit Short Rule

     

    194 Long 1 06/28/11 06/29/11 +0.46 +14.79 Exit Long Rule

     

    195 Long 3 07/14/11 07/19/11 +0.89 +21.81 Exit Long Rule

     

    196 Short 2 07/25/11 07/27/11 +0.25 +5.04 Exit Short Rule

     

    197 Short 1 08/17/11 08/18/11 +0.18 +5.29 Exit Short Rule

     

    198 Short 2 09/01/11 09/06/11 +0.19 +5.34 Exit Short Rule

     

    199 Long 4 10/04/11 10/10/11 +0.92 +38.82 Exit Long Rule

     

    200 Long 1 10/25/11 10/26/11 +0.25 +6.85 Exit Long Rule

     

    201 Short 3 10/28/11 11/02/11 +0.49 +11.64 Exit Short Rule

     

    202 Short 1 11/16/11 11/17/11 +0.24 +6.40 Exit Short Rule

     

    203 Long 2 11/28/11 11/30/11 +0.40 +12.46 Exit Long Rule

     

    204 Long 3 01/18/12 01/23/12 +0.28 +8.64 Exit Long Rule

     

    205 Long 2 02/15/12 02/17/12 +0.20 +5.31 Exit Long Rule

     

    206 Short 4 02/27/12 03/02/12 +0.42 +9.79 Exit Short Rule

     

    207 Short 2 03/13/12 03/15/12 +0.31 +8.09 Exit Short Rule

     

    208 Short 3 03/27/12 03/30/12 +0.13 +4.00 Exit Short Rule

     

    209 Short 2 04/17/12 04/19/12 +0.13 +4.32 Exit Short Rule

     

    210 Short 2 05/01/12 05/03/12 +0.24 +7.87 Exit Short Rule

     

    211 Long 3 06/05/12 06/08/12 +0.34 +12.59 Exit Long Rule

     

    212 Long 4 06/25/12 06/29/12 +0.27 +9.25 Exit Long Rule

     

    213 Short 4 07/05/12 07/11/12 +0.22 +6.65 Exit Short Rule

     

    214 Short 3 09/24/12 09/27/12 +0.05 +2.10 Exit Short Rule

     

    215 Long 3 11/19/12 11/23/12 +0.08 +4.62 Exit Long Rule

     

    216 Long 6 12/10/12 12/18/12 +0.18 +9.47 Exit Long Rule

     

    217 Long 3 12/27/12 01/02/13 +0.24 +11.71 Exit Long Rule

     

    218 Long 6 09/05/13 09/13/13 +0.16 +6.45 Exit Long Rule

     

    219 Long 3 11/01/13 11/06/13 +0.24 +8.19 Exit Long Rule

     

    220 Long 8 12/12/13 12/24/13 +0.20 +6.04 Exit Long Rule

     

    221 Long 4 03/11/14 03/17/14 +0.51 +16.19 Exit Long Rule

     

    222 Long 7 03/28/14 04/08/14 +0.32 +8.27 Exit Long Rule

     

    223 Short 2 07/02/14 07/07/14 +0.37 +5.94 Exit Short Rule

     

    224 Short 4 07/24/14 07/30/14 +0.44 +7.38 Exit Short Rule

     

    225 Short 3 09/18/14 09/23/14 +0.35 +6.11 Exit Short Rule

     

    226 Long 3 10/15/14 10/20/14 +0.40 +11.05 Exit Long Rule

     

    227 Long 4 10/28/14 11/03/14 +0.04 +1.01 Exit Long Rule

     

    228 Long 4 11/14/14 11/20/14 +0.15 +3.69 Exit Long Rule

     

    229 Short 3 11/24/14 11/28/14 +0.85 +20.45 Exit Short Rule

     

    230 Long 4 12/09/14 12/15/14 -0.09 -3.40 Exit Long Rule

     

    231 Long 4 02/11/15 02/18/15 +0.10 +3.12 Exit Long Rule

     

    232 Long 1 02/20/15 02/20/15 0.00 0.00 Open

     
         

    My thesis is that a trader can use an accurate trading system in very short-term trading making consistent gains and turn a huge investment profit doing this. Let me show you what I mean: taking the first 30 trades of Abraxas Petroleum that I showed above, running from 6/91 to 7/96 on the calendar.

    We want to be in the market all the time; and since signals on any stock, such as AXAS, are not constant, we will have to use a full database of issues to generate enough buy signals to stay fully invested. We want to use the same amount of money to invest, and re-invest all profits. For example, let's say we begin with an IRA fund of $30,000. We dedicate these funds to this system. The attached file shows that this system, through the 30 trades shown above, returns a rather astounding 637% in 218 trading days, 83% of a full year of trading. $30,000 can be turned into almost $192,000 in 3/4 of a year.

    Let me repeat, we stay full invested. For example, we trade AXAS as a first trade. Then we switch to another new trade when AXAS gives us a sell signal. We keep rolling our profits into each new trade.

    This spreadsheet shows the dynamics of this system's potential.

    Column1

    Column2

    Column3

    Column4

    Column5

    Column6

    Column7

     

    Start trade

    % Gain

    $Gain

    New Total

    Trading Days

     
           

    1

    $30,000

    7.69%

    $2,307.00

    $32,307.00

    8

     

    2

    $32,307.00

    8.33%

    $2,691.17

    $34,998.17

    25

     

    3

    $34,998.17

    7.69%

    $2,691.36

    $37,689.53

    9

     

    4

    $37,689.53

    6.67%

    $2,513.89

    $40,203.42

    13

     

    5

    $40,203.42

    6.67%

    $2,680.36

    $42,883.79

    3

     

    6

    $42,883.79

    6.67%

    $2,860.35

    $45,744.14

    7

     

    7

    $45,744.14

    7.14%

    $3,266.13

    $49,010.27

    20

     

    8

    $49,010.27

    8.27%

    $4,053.15

    $53,063.42

    21

     

    9

    $53,063.42

    6.06%

    $3,215.64

    $56,279.06

    6

     

    10

    $56,279.06

    4.17%

    $2,346.84

    $58,625.90

    4

     

    11

    $58,625.90

    7.69%

    $4,508.33

    $63,134.23

    3

     

    12

    $63,134.23

    4.17%

    $2,632.70

    $65,766.92

    4

     

    13

    $65,766.92

    11.90%

    $7,826.26

    $73,593.19

    4

     

    14

    $73,593.19

    0.96%

    $706.49

    $74,299.68

    4

     

    15

    $74,299.68

    7.55%

    $5,609.63

    $79,909.31

    4

     

    16

    $79,909.31

    4.77%

    $3,811.67

    $83,720.98

    4

     

    17

    $83,720.98

    2.56%

    $2,143.26

    $85,864.24

    14

     

    18

    $85,864.24

    6.13%

    $5,263.48

    $91,127.72

    4

     

    19

    $91,127.72

    -2.86%

    -$2,606.25

    $88,521.46

    4

     

    20

    $88,521.46

    6.05%

    $5,355.55

    $93,877.01

    8

     

    21

    $93,877.01

    7.20%

    $6,759.14

    $100,636.16

    5

     

    22

    $100,636.16

    14.38%

    $14,471.48

    $115,107.64

    4

     

    23

    $115,107.64

    13.79%

    $15,873.34

    $130,980.98

    11

     

    24

    $130,980.98

    5.52%

    $7,230.15

    $138,211.13

    5

     

    25

    $138,211.13

    0.02%

    $32.34

    $138,243.47

    3

     

    26

    $138,243.47

    9.09%

    $12,566.33

    $150,809.80

    3

    Trading Days

    27

    $150,809.80

    9.52%

    $14,357.09

    $165,166.90

    1

    In a Year

    28

    $165,166.90

    5.43%

    $8,968.56

    $174,135.46

    5

    260

    29

    $174,135.46

    15.73%

    $27,391.51

    $201,526.97

    4

     

    30

    $201,526.97

    9.77%

    $19,689.18

    $221,216.15

    8

    218

           
       

    Gain

    $191,216.15

     

    83.85%

       

    % Gain

    637.39%

     

    of a year

           

    This new Trading System can also be used effectively in variously lengths of trading in the currency markets as well. We will integrate this system into our daily newsletter over the next few days.

    Column1

    Column2

    Column3

    Column4

    Column5

    PORTFOLIOS

       

    % Gain

    First Trade

     

    SYSTEM

    Trading Focus

         

    3.09%

    2/13/15

     

    T5D REVERSAL

    Int-term

    21.05%

    11/10/14

     

    CGTS STOCKS#1

    Int-term

    22.10%

    10/24/14

     

    CGTS STOCKS #2

    Int-term

    12.02% 1/6/15

    CGTS STOCKS #3

    Lont-Term

    Currency Trading (30-1 leverage)

        

    523.09%

    8/20/14

     

    CGTS CURRENCY

    int-term

    Column1

    Column2

    Column3

    Column4

    Column5

    Column6

    2/20/15

         

    CLOSED TRADES

        
          

    AUDJPY

    Short

    93.35

    CGTS CURRENCY

    4.40%

    132.00%

          

    NEW TRADES

         

    New trades today

         
          

    None

      

    CGTS STOCKS #1

      
          

    COCO

    LONG

    0.03

    CGTS STOCKS #2

    Corinthian Colleges

     

    AXPW

    LONG

    0.03

    CGTS STOCKS #2

    Axion

     

    We closed a short currency trade AUDJPY with a gain of 4.4% or 132% (30-1 leverage).

    We have a lot of charts today:

    (click to enlarge)

    We continue to gain on our long DUST, short Gold Stocks position.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    One of our readers wants to know how CAT looks here. Not good. If you own it sell it; if you don't own it and want to start a short position, this is a good candidate.

    (click to enlarge)

    Another reader wanted to know if it was time to sell his BEAV put options? In a word, no. More room to the downside.

    (click to enlarge)

    Another reader wants to know if there is any inflation on the horizon -- is the FED really going to raise rates? We don't see it. Unless they do it for one reason, to support the Dollar in its war against Russia and other countries in their rebellion against the US Dollar. The thing is, higher rates are deflationary to America; and a stronger Dollar is also deflationary, globally. The strong Dollar path deflates the world first, and more slowly; and the FED cannot let Russia defeat the US Dollar in this currency war that is raging.

    The TIP chart shows there is no inflation on the horizon.

    TLH, 10 Year+, Lehman TBond ETF is still bullish.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    A reader wants to see a picture of TSLA, Tesla. Tesla is currently a sell. We want to watch to see if it is a short.

    (click to enlarge)

    BLK is a buy signal here. Note how the recent downturn in the CGTS112 (orange line) generated NO SELLERS. Note also how our T.5 Simple indicator (brown line, middle pane) is trying to snap back up, which is very bullish.

    (click to enlarge)

    A lot of South American stocks seem to be faltering. Look at CCU for instance.

    (click to enlarge)

    We should make it clear that we are largely bullish. We are bullish against our own judgment, and wishes. The vast majority of stocks we follow are showing no signs of breaking down. Oil stocks, gold and silver stocks, are breaking down. But most mainstream American stocks are steaming ahead. ZIRP ensures that company buy-backs are still going, full blast.

    Greece blinked. But war fever is getting even stronger. The FED can fix stocks in an uptrend; it cannot, however, fix the economy. So we have stocks that don't relate to the economy. It is a kind of disease. But it's the only game in town at the moment.

    Happy trading.

    Michael J. Clark, CGTS

    cgts @mindspring.com

    home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS142.htm

    Feb 23 12:38 AM | Link | Comment!
  • SHILLER CYCLICAL PE CONFIRMS EIGHTEEN YEAR CYCLES OF GROWTH FOLLOWED BY DESTRUCTION

    1911-1929: growth or inflation

    1929-1947: deflation or deconstruction

    1947-1965: growth or inflation

    1965-1983: deflation or deconstruction

    1983-2001: growth or inflation

    2001-2019: deflation or deconstruction

    Stocks and the economy are only effects of this process. To the ancient Greeks, Zeus/Jupiter (Je-Zeus) was the force of expansion, the Day-Cycle force; and Kronos/Saturn (or Satan) was the force of destruction, the Night-Cycle force.

    Isis will continue to get stronger, as one of the central deconstruction forces of this cycle. World communism was the deconstruction force from 1965-1983. World fascism was the deconstruction force from 1929-1947. The economy will 'get fixed' by time, when deconstruction transforms into reconstruction, when negative energy of matter gets transformed into positive energy of spirit.

    1983-2001: SPENDING CYCLE, DEBT CYCLE: lower interest rates to encourage growth in spending.

    2001-2019: SAVING CYCLE, DEBT DESTRUCTION CYCLE: raise interest rates to encourage growth in saving. We failed in this; because we think we know better. We don't. Instead of trying to hold on to a dying world, we should be following God's or Nature's laws and destroying bad debt with higher interest rates. We know better. We want to 'avoid pain' -- we want to keep what we gained in the last filling cycle.

    1983-2001: Filling-Up Cycle -- Winning Cycle

    2001-2019: Emptying-Out Cycle -- Losing Cycle

    Instead of facing the Losing Cycle 'like men' with courage and faith, we stole money from our grandchildren's future. And our debts continued to grow. Meaning horrible pain will lie ahead, including very likely World War III.

    This is the process of evolution. We build the world from 1983-2001; we destroy the world we built from 1983-2001 from 2001-2019, so we can build the world as a better model from 2019-2037. The Lord gives (1983-2001) and the Lord takes away (2001-2019). Humans are so proud of their mental abilities to 'control Nature'; sometimes pride, which the Greeks felt was the primal sin, hubris, gets in the way of one's ability to 'learn from' Nature. Will becomes everything. The proud man is the man who falls. In Greek Myth, pride is punished by Hekate, the Moon Goddess from Hell. In fact, Isis seems like Hekate, does it not. The severed heads; the captives burned alive. These are images from hell, are they not?

    As I say, Isis and all the Islamic (Allah is a Moon God, in fact) forces of world destruction just get stronger and stronger until 2019, when the Sun-God (Zeus-Jupiter) returns with the force of expansion. Religion is alive today in our world, governing our world -- only we don't like to understand the world this way. We like to understand the world as individual men conquering through pride. As I say, there is an end to this world-view; and that end is coming very soon.

    See below how consistent with these ideas are the charts of the Shiller Cyclical PE Ratio and the Dow/Gold Ratio.

    (click to enlarge)

    Feb 21 3:07 PM | Link | 2 Comments
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