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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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  • IS THE DOLLAR TOAST? DON'T BET ON IT.

    I have been engaged in many animated Dollar Discussions on SA recently about the health of the US Dollar and the wisdom of shorting the Dollar now, since it has bee disrupted by the refusal of the FED to become even less patient, or to see the US economic 'recovery' through steadfast rose-colored glasses. The FED sent mixed messages to the world about US intent to raise interest rates and the Dollar came down like rain in a Saigon monsoon.

    Anyway, I am bullish on the Dollar, for many reasons -- world politics, global economic currents, supply and demand...I don't want to rewrite all my reasons again. I think I will copy some of my posts from SA discussions, as they cover most of my ideas, reasons, rationalizations for the Dollar's return from the dead. Keep in mind that the FED controls the dollar phase, the weak dollar being the time of and the mechanism of inflating the global economy (debt bubble), the strong dollar being the reverse phase, the time of harvesting the global economy (and crashing the debt bubble).

    Circumstantial evidence i obvious: the US is the only nation in the world with what might be called colloquially an inflation problem. Of course, the US started the global currency wars earlier than most, with QE and ZIRP beginning in 2009. As such, the US is ahead of the curve, speaking of a need to tighten interest rates when most of the world is busy loosening rates as fast as they can, desperate to win the race to the bottom.

    Let's review a couple of my posts about why the Dollar is not 'toast'.

    __

    I think you have it backward. Dollar strength deflated oil and oil-related issues. Did it not? The FED crucified the Dollar with QE and ZIRP in order to support global inflation (debt bubbles). The only thing between where we are now and global deflation is the Dollar; keep it weak if you want asset inflation; keep it strong if you want deflation.

    The only thing that makes the Dollar weak is central bank crucifixion of the Dollar. In the next 6-12 months is more QE possible in America? If the answer is YES, then short the Dollar. If the answer is NO, go long the dollar.

    Scenario: the strong dollar exports deflation to the world. At what point is that bad for the US? It is bad for multinational US corporations, but so what. They have been rising the QE/ZIRP gravy train for years now. Money flow comes back into the US. Developing countries become desperate to buy dollars to service and/or refinance billions in US Dollar debt. This seems to be an important point. As the Dollar rises, borrowers in US Dollar denominate debt all over the world MUST BUY MORE DOLLARS or declare default. Of course they all want a weak dollar to make it easier to service their debt; but they MUST buy the Dollar and this drives the dollar price even higher.

    How is this NOT bullish for the Dollar?If the FED begins QE again, then sell the dollar. If not, then buy the dollar.

    At least, that's how I see it. And, getting back to my point: the dollar dives oil; oil does not drive the dollar. The FED drives the Dollar. Always has. If the FED gives in to Wall Street and opts for more QE, buy oil and short the Dollar. If not, short oil, short the Euro, short the CAD and AUD and British Pound. Oil CANNOT recover without more QE from the FED.

    --

    Actually Matthew, I'm coming to think the real reason the FED wants to raise rates is that they understand America and Russia are at war. A weak dollar strengthens Russia and the coalition they are putting together of anti-Dollar activist developing countries. The FED is actually (now, after all these years) back the Dollar because a weak dollar will make it fall to all the threats of de-dollarization all over the world. But a strong dollar strengthens its hand in the world of politics in the sense that it requires all those dollar-enemies with a lot of dollar debt to chase the dollar to service their debt.

    Also, the strong dollar kills oil and commodities....so it kills Russia and China. We are already at war. My prediction is the shooting will begin very soon also.

    Another prediction: America will not have many friends by 2019. We will pretty much be standing alone, with a strong dollar, and a lot of tattered nations economically hating the Dollar and America even more. But if we are at war, we do what helps us win the war. The weak dollar seeds the world; the strong dollar harvests the world.

    The FED cannot let the Dollar lose. That's why talk of shorting the Dollar seems ludicrous, unless you believe that the FED will get a guilty conscience suddenly about all the debt its policies created.

    How can the world defeat the dollar? Default on dollar loans. Is this what is coming?

    --

    It really has nothing to do with amazing American corporate efficiency. The FED is driving the truck. American corporations have been given trillions of free money by the FED. They have bought back shares by the billions. They have offloaded decent-paying jobs to the Third World. If that is what you mean by efficiency, it is a kind of efficiency I admit. A collusive kind of efficiency. It's been a rigged game, no doubt. The rigging is creating a new feudalism. Yes, it is a kind of effiiciency.

    I would not sing the glories of Wall Street too much, since they have done nothing for American workers, they have only stolen as much cash as they could carry. It is the greatest theft of public monies in the history of the world.

    I think this experience will lead to the disappearance of private banking in the West, with banks becoming a kind of not-for-profit enterprise, more like the public utilities than like the Protestant white-shirt mafia in Italian hand-made suits driving German cars as they are today.

    --

    Watch the Republicans try to kill the FED in order to save Wall Street from the stronger dollar. Strange how this all plays out.

    I think we needed high interest rates starting in 2001. To me the strong Dollar is an answer to my prayers, because it will generate the deflation that will destroy the global debt bubble. All else is just stalling and stealing from future (even unborn) Americans.

    So, I'm ready for a new version of the NEW Greenback Party, one favoring a strong Dollar as a major part of its platform.

    The Old Greenback Party favored easy money and was essentially an early version of the recent Democratic Party, before Clinton sold out the party to Wall Street, 1998 -- when our democracy died.

    --

    Don't agree with that. Bernanke has been fighting the Great Depression battle his entire academic and professional life. He was just waiting for his chance to prove his hero (Japanese finance minister Korekiyo Takahashi) correct about his theory of QE and bond-buying, which Bernanke believed saved Japan from depression. Of course, after QE did work for a couple years, Takahashi was beheaded in public by angry generals who feared unwinding QE would destroy their army. So, when QE did not work, the Japanese created a series of wars to rev up the economy. So, get ready for international trouble -- when QE fails, war is the only path open.

    My point is that Bernanke was devoted to the ideas of QE and ZIRP. He was not a puppet of anyone in Washington. He sold Obama on the idea of QE, not the other way around. The FED chair is always a puppet of Wall Street, except in rare times, Volcker for instance. But even Volcker was concerned about saving Wall Street from rampant inflation; the FED works for Wall Street, not for America.

    Bernanke said the Obama (my perspective), the only way we can avoid depression and you being a one-term president, is by inflating asset bubbles, which will transfer trillions of dollars from the public treasury to all the richest people in the world; but it will allow us to stall the Greater Depression until you are out of office. You can be president for two terms. And you can oversee the theft of trillions from the public treasury. But the two go together. Are you willing to live with this? And Obama said yes, because Obama never really was a reformer; like Bill Clinton what Obama really wanted was for his family to be accepted in the power centers of America. He cared about his own family flourishing much more than he cared about America.

    --

    Are we closer to higher rates or more QE? If we are heading into more QE, then the world economy is DEAD, and all major currencies are DEAD. The only thing that can save the global economy at this point is higher rates, because only higher rates can dry out the flood of cheap money that is killing us in the Biblical Flood. More QE, then negative interest rates, then the death of currencies and banking as we know it.

    So, my view is, it is either strong dollar, deflation, global debt bubble destruction, austerity, discipline, the drying up of the waters or DEATH BY DROWNING.

    --

    The strong dollar will hurt American multinationals. So what? The FED has been feeding them free billions for the last half-decade. They have been pocketing all their profits and using ZIRP to push stock prices higher, and cash out stock options at all-time highs, and collect bonuses based on extravagant stock prices. They have been riding the government gravy-train. Socialism for the rich. They have also been sending all their best jobs overseas, to save costs that they did not pass on to consumers, but kept for themselves. Nothing sacred about the big multinationals. Their vampires sucking our blood and living the life of glamour while we worship them in a strange, confused hero worship -- worshipping Dracula while he sucks us of our blood, billions in QE and ZIRP money that is coming from unborn American generations.

    I'm a dollar bull because I think it is the only hope for our country. We are awash in debt. We need to destroy the debt to live again. And only the strong Dollar can deflate the debt bubbles everywhere. Yes, people will get hurt with the strong dollar. But we need to save our country from Dracula policies and Dracula practices. Let's see which US corporations are really as good as they proclaim; test them a little, see how creative they are. If they fall, let them fall; the next generation will be a new crop of even better capitalists -- and we can always hope they might even have some morals, for a change.

    You say the dollar is losing ground as reality sinks in. The dollar is having a fairly normal correction after rising parabolically for the last 6 months, suppressed by the FED for the last 6 years. Which reality are you seeing? What is the alternative to a strong dollar? More QE, interest rates going negative; currencies dying. The FED does not have an escape plan. The FED knows they need to raise rates (14 years too late) but they are afraid of the repercussions. We would have done much better with repercussions in 2001 to the end of the business cycle, without the faking, the lying, the graft, the asset bubbles in stocks, housing, commodities, in stocks again. We are going to have to face the music at some point. We can't keep stealing money from the future to avoid the reality of what I see coming. Our debts have grown astronomically since 2001, when we were supposed to begin winding down debts. The whole world is insolvent; we need to wind down debt; and FED policies of low interest rates tempt us to take on more and more debt, the exact opposite of what we should have been doing since 2001.

    The strong Dollar will save us. It won't be painless or easy. But it is the only path out of this maelstrom we have created for ourselves. The medicine of more debt for a sick patient obese with debt was a hideous mistake. The only way out is a strong dollar, and higher interest rates.

    Russia and China were tempted to attack the US Dollar as the King Currency because we weakened it for so long. Now it is a war for survival. The FED can't go back into the past, weakening the Dollar, so Russia and China and other nations will be able to kill the Dollar more easily.

    There can be no inflation with massive debts. Don't you see that. The whole world has been trying to ignite inflation to save us from debt. You can't ignite inflation when there is too much debt. Inflation is a fire; it needs oxygen to burn; debt soaks up all the oxygen (this is a metaphor of course -- not need to debunk it literally).

    The IMPOSSIBLE DEBTs, impossible by your own description, will need to be destroyed through default and bankruptcy. There is no other way out of this mess.

    --

    Why would the FED support a stronger US Dollar when it would hurt America's multinational corporations? That's a good question. And to show you that there is no internal inconsistency in my logic, I will try to explain why the FED now MUST raise rates to support the US Dollar.

    We are at war. The first stage of this war, as is often the case, is financial. Currency wars at a part of this. But our war with Russia (and her allies, who are fully committed to destroy the US Dollar, and to overthrowing the Dollar as the currency of international trade) requires a strong dollar. The strong dollar deflates oil and commodities generally, attacking both Russia and China (and also some of our allies -- Canada, Australia...-- could not be helped). A weak dollar strengthens both Russia and China. They want to destroy America's advantage (King Currency) and replace it with a currency of their own -- so the war is on.

    The FED, which had gleefully weakened the Dollar over and over again, especially since 2008 with QE and ZIRP, but also many other times, now understands the Dollar and the US is in a fight for its life. The FED cannot let the dollar weaken now for political reasons. We are heading for a shooting war with Russia, China (and their allies, North Korea, a few others perhaps -- perhaps even some of the Arab countries) -- an axis is being formed today, even as we refuse to see it or pretend it is not.

    The strong Dollar weakens America's enemies. This is the new logic, more primary now than 'what is good for the global economy'. War is being assumed. And a strong dollar, while it hurts America's multinational corporations, and American exports, does not hurt Americans trading and selling goods in the US; it makes all imports even cheaper; it makes possible America's buying of foreign assets and reverses the scenario of foreigners buying American assets more cheaply.

    The strong Dollar makes America richer, and the world poorer. The weak Dollar makes America poorer (because more indebted), and the world richer. Money is currently flooding the US from all around the world; foreigners who took out billions of US Dollar loans during the weak dollar phase must now pursue the dollar higher and higher (pushing it higher, in fact) in order to re-finance their US Dollar debt, or try to pay it off. Suddenly, everyone needs more dollars, and the dollar is getting more expensive, so default becomes more likely over time.

    In the early 80's we had a bull market in the US Dollar -- South America and Mexico collapsed in debt default; in 1998-2001, the dollar raced higher, and the Asian Economies collapsed through a currency crisis, and Russia had their defaults crisis. In 2008, the dollar raced higher, and oil collapsed, and then the global economy collapsed. We helped foreign countries to overcome their crises then. Today, whom are we helping overcome their default crisis? Ukraine. Why? Because Ukraine is fighting the first combat phase of World War III against Russia.

    The world will get religion. That is why war and economic destruction are such a major part of the Winter Season of the Economy; so that the proud intellects who are superior to the God-Idea will be brought to their knees and re-discover their own weakness. The Ego gets demolished when he meets God face-to-face.

    --

    Ok. That is a picture of why the US Dollar is not toast. Let's look at a couple of picture of charts tonight that make me personally convinced that the Dollar is not toast yet.

    One of our better trading systems, EMV Trade, is giving a buy signal on UUP (US Dollar) today; a shortsell signal on FXE (Euro vs US Dollar); a shortsell on the Australian Dollar; and a buy signal on YCS (Short the Japanese Yen) -- so it is negative on the Yen; and a shortsell sign on CEW, the Emgerging Currency ETF; a shortsell on GLD and IAU; a shortsell signal on ELD, Emerging Currency Local Debt.

    --

    (click to enlarge)

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    In the past two weeks, both Thailand and Egypt both surprised by cutting their interest rates. It is a race to the bottom; the only one losing this race is America. My theory is that America will win because of this.

    If you are shorting the Dollar, you may want to re-think this strategy over the next few days.

    MJClark, CGTS

    Mar 27 2:36 AM | Link | 8 Comments
  • AA, ALCOA: WE'RE SHORT AA -- DIFFERENT LOGICS BETWEEN FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    I'm writing this instablog on short notice to provide a picture to some readers about why we are negative on AA.

    Below is a response to a specific defender of AA, who argues my opinion is not 'logical' because I don't speak the same language he and the investment establishment speaks, mathematical fundamental analysis.

    I realize you are in love with AA, which is breaking the first rule of investing -- never fall in love with a stock -- and that I am attacking your sacred cow.

    My prediction is that AA will be below 10 before it is above 20. Simple prediction, either right or wrong. All the rationalization you do with fundamental company data is just that -- rationalization, a form of a prayer. Your reciting margins and EPS and debt level and cost per ingot is just a form of prayer and says nothing about where the stock is going. It is an incantation you make defining where you want the stock to go. You have come to believe that fundamentals drive the stock price; in truth, investors' GREED drives the stock price up, investors' FEAR drives the stock price down.

    Fundamentals may be a fuel for the GREED, but not always. Often, stocks with good fundamentals tank, completely collapse. Because FEAR eclipses GREED. Likewise, a company with horrible fundamentals can soar. We can all remember the NASDAQ bubble in the late 1990s, during which time internet stocks with no earnings were trade at astronomical multiples -- until the GREED ended in a crash. GREED is an inverted FEAR in truth -- FEAR of missing the bus, FEAR of not getting what everyone else is getting. FEAR is an inverse of GREED also -- the FEAR OF GREED being shut off, and one's not getting when he deserves.

    The fundamental picture of a company is ALWAYS a picture of the past -- even the fundamental indicators that claim to peek into the future (future earnings projections -- projections being the key word) just extrapolate the past and present into the future, an not very effectively, since future earnings projections for the last 10 years are almost always being dumbed-down to not frighten investors when actual earnings are announced. Stock buybacks help companies report growth, even when earnings are not growing; a company can either, to report EPS growth, actually grow earnings (sales, revenues) or simply reduced the outstanding shares component of the equation. They can lose money but reduce shares and still report earnings grown -- and ZIRP makes this very easy and relatively cheap to do, certainly cheaper than telling the truth.

    So how do we gauge the transition of investor GREED into investor FEAR? Well, interest rates are a key gauge of GREED/FEAR transition mechanism. But they are not the only one. There are others also. FEAR generally can overtake a bull market, since Fear of war, political collapse, depression also weigh into the balance.

    Fundamental equations are often helpful in telling the investor WHICH stock to buy, but rarely if ever WHEN to buy, and especially not WHEN to sell. Value is a guide, but not a very useful guide: one can buy an undervalued stock and sit on it for two years waiting for it to move. When a stock gets overvalued, and the investor sells for a profit (perhaps) he may watch the stock double or even triple after he sells, because valuation is a very crude trading instrument.

    I think you are just defending a convention. Conventional wisdom is always conventional (I want to belong to the big, successful group that speaks the big fundamental language) but very rarely wise.

    So, I don't believe in your logic. Why should I participate in this thinking. I believe your logic is a false prayer. As with any discipline or learning, it has value as a discipline, as does technical analysis have value as a learning discipline.

    In a bull market, when all boats are lifted by the tide, fundamental analysis seems like the law. Investors apply the rules of fundamental analysis to stocks, and stocks go up; and investors believe there is a causal relationship between their religion and the wealth-results. But it this really a causal relationship; or is it a coincidence? In the Bear Market, that faith breaks down. So get ready. You've probably never been through a real Bear Market. It won't be pretty. It will shred a lot of companies that have pretty good fundamentals (when the selling begins).

    I use technical analysis to try to view, directly, the struggle between FEAR AND GREED, between sellers and buyers, in a specific stock. At the moment, in AA, there is more FEAR than GREED. That is what I'm saying, what I am seeing. Your fundamental positives are all weighed on the GREED side; but there are more FEARS about future fundamentals and about macro liabilities (the strong dollar being one).

    Technical analysis is also mathematical. But it is more about measuring psychology in the market than about measuring the body (with the hocus-pocus logic of fundamental prospects).

    Here is a picture of Alcoa, showing why we believe it is heading down, perhaps below 8 in 3-4 months:

    (click to enlarge)

    Both Fundamental and Technical analysis are prayers of a sort. I have no problem with this. Choose your own instrument. And pray with diligence in order to be saved.

    Good luck trading.

    MJC, CGTS

    Mar 19 5:58 PM | Link | Comment!
  • IS THERE A BUSINESS CYCLE? YES, THERE IS. THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE BULL MARKET ARE THE SAME THING.

    I have been involved in a long series of discussions on Seeking Alpha as to 1) whether or not there is such a thing as a Business Cycle; and 2) what is the true definition of a Bull Market and a Bear Market.

    I have a simple graphic explanation of the answer to both these questions. 1) Yes, there is a business cycle; 2) the business cycle is the definition of the Bull Market/Bear Market Dilemma. The Bull Market is the Business Cycle.

    As nature would have it, Bull Markets last 18 years and Bear Markets last 18 years. The Business Cycle (Growth Period) lasts 18 years; the (empty or end of the) Business Cycle, the Bear Market, also lasts 18 years.

    Here is a simplified version of this for the recent century:

    1911-1929: Bull Market Business Cycle

    1929-1947: Bear Market, End of the Business Cycle

    1947-1965: Bull Market Business Cycle

    1965-1983: Bear Market, End of the Business Cycle

    1983-2001: Bull Market Business Cycle

    2001-2019: Bear Market, End of the Business Cycle

    2019-2037: Bull Market Business Cycle

    2037-2055: Bear Market, End of the Business Cycle....

    What sane person could believe that Bull Markets and Business Cycle's would be scheduled so precisely in history? Good question. In fact, astronomers long ago understood that they could predict many things in nature. They could predict when Spring would begin each year, many centuries in advance. They could predict all the seasons, exactly. They could predict solar and lunar eclipses. In fact a specific series solar eclipse returns to the earth every 18 years (there is that number again).

    In fact, this system of predicting Bear Markets and Bull Markets (or in understanding them) is much preferable to man's definition: Is a 20% decline in stocks a bear market; is an 18% decline almost a Bear Market. Is a 20% advance in stocks a Bull Market. Is anything more than a 20% advance in stocks something more than a Bull Market? Why is a 20% decline in stocks the definition of a Bear Market but a 20% advance in stocks not a Bull Market? It's not very precise, is it? Man's definition.

    My definition is very precise. Like the solar eclipse, the Bull Market returns every 18 years. As a matter of fact, speaking metaphorically, a Bull Market is very much like an eclipse of the Moon by the Sun; a Bear Market is very much like an eclipse of the Sun by the Moon -- this is why I call the Bull Market (the Business Cycle) a Day-Cycle, and why I call the Bear Market (the end of the Business Cycle) a Night-Cycle.

    I promised you the perfect picture of the Business Cycle-Bull Market and Anti-Business Cycle - Bear Market. This picture is of the price of the S&P 500 Index divided by the price of gold (the Stock/Gold Ratio, it is called). Note how the tops in this chart correspond to the end of the Business Cycle-Bull Market I have designated above: 1929; 1965; 2001...

    Business Cycles and Bull Markets run from 1911-1929, from 1947-1965, from 1983-2001. How could anything so complex as the Business Cycle and the Bull Market be so simple? Good question. It just is. There is no need to rationalize it. Our modern scientific prejudice is that everything needs to be rationalized, explained rationally, broken down into rational parts, thus, convincing us that we have power over it, making us thereby larger than it is, a god ruling over Nature. But that is just our modern fetish; this says nothing about Nature or Reality. Mind over matter apparently is not just a mystical notion, but is a very practical scientific application as well.

    Plato wrote: "God geometrizes." He also wrote: "The Laws of Nature are the thoughts of God."

    Kepler wrote: "Geometry is one and eternal shining in the mind of God. That share in it accorded to humans is one of the reasons that humanity is the image of God."

    Simplicity within complexity. Complexity within simplicity.

    Some humans will reject simplicity because it is not complex enough, not intellectual enough.

    Einstein admired simplicity. He wrote: "Simplicity boils down to two steps: identify the essential; eliminate the rest." He also wrote: "Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication." And again: "If you can't explain it to a six-year-old, then you don't understand it yourself."

    I know there will be scoffers who will reject this apparent proof because it is not sophisticated enough, not complex enough, too mystical, too exact. "The Business Cycle is defined exactly like an alarm clock going off," they will mock. Yes. Time is the form that Space takes in manifestation.

    I do have more involved arguments as to why 36 years. But I grow weary of explaining it to those who feel it their duty to de-bunk rather than their privilege to receive such revelations. So I will write these more elaborate notes at some other time.

    Suffice it to say: 18 years for the Bull Market; 18 years for the Bear Market. A 36-year cycle.

    So, according to this reasoning, 1911-1929 was a Bull Market and a Business Cycle Spending Season. 1929-1947 was a Bear Market and a Business Cycle Saving Cycle (a 'rest' cycle -- during which time no growth is or was possible).

    Ok, so we should test this premise. Let's look at stock gains during the proposed Bull Markets and stock losses during the proposed Bear Markets:

    1911-1929 Bull Market
    1929-1947 Bear Market
    1947-1965 Bull Market
    1965-1983 Bear Market
    1983-2001 Bull Market
    2001-2019 Bear Market ...

    1911-1929 Bull Market = DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE RETURN: 424% Bull Market total gain • positive 24% annual gain.

    1929-1947 Bear Market = DJIA return: negative 47% total gain • negative 3% annual return

    1947-1965 Bull Market = DJIA return: 386% total gain • positive 22% annual return.

    1965-1983 Bear Market = DJIA return: 22% total gain • positive 1% annual return.

    1983-2001 Bull Market = DJIA return: 915% total gain • positive 51% annual return.

    2001-2019 Bear Market = DJIA return:still to be determined. (I have written much about central bank attempts to distort the Business Cycle by stealing money from the future to spend today -- which I believe will result in a prolonged disaster -- and a horrible crash of the financial system. I am predicting a crash in the DJIA to around 8787 by 2019, a loss of more than 50% from where we are today. Time will tell if this occurs.)

    Clearly, Bull Markets are about unlimited gain (much more than 20%); and Bear Markets are periods of rest. We should think of these more as Day-Cycles, periods of productive activity and expansion, evolution of the material world; and Night-Cycles, periods of rest, recovery, regeneration of energy, and dreaming the imagery of what we will become during the next Day-Cycle, when we 'wake up' from our rest.

    When we sleep, the material world is destroyed to us; our identity is totally lost. When we awaken, the anti-material world of our dreams is destroyed to us also. It is not really clear which world is the real world, as both are real in their own context. The spiritual world of our dreams feeds us imagery that we construction in matter when we awaken and carry those dreams into the waking world, the Bull Market. We should learn to treat the Bear Market sleeping world with as much respect and honor as we treat the Bull Market world of activity. Without the Bear Market Night-Cycle of rest and recovery there would be no Bull Market of evolutionary change. The Bear Market rest and recovery period is about refocusing and the conservation of energy we have spent during the Bull Market Day-Cycle. (Note: Day-Cycles are about expending energy, so the Bull Market Business Cycle can also be called the SPENDING CYCLE. Night-Cycles are about the conservation of energy, the saving of energy, the storing of energy for emergencies: Night-Cycles can also be called the SAVING CYCLE. Interest rates should be lowered in support of the Spending Cycle and raised in support of the Saving Cycle. Simple, again; but true.)

    Tricks to extend the Business Cycle, and the Bull Market, the Day, are, in fact, stealing energy from ourselves and from our own future. The Business Cycle and the Bull Market cannot be extended beyond the 18 year limit without stealing resources and recovery energy from ourselves. This is a wisdom that Greed battles and tries to destroy. Such Greed also destroys empires, as they steal energy from their own futures, and become weaker during each cycle, eventually collapsing from within because of their desire for MORE NOW, always for MORE NOW.

    Please think about this before rejecting it. Scientific thinking (and debunking) is part of the day language of the Bull Market Day-Cycle -- but there is also a Night-language, symbols, dreams, metaphor, which will give one extended life during the Night-Cycle. That is why we must develop both sides of the brain, not just the practical, causal, empirical reasoning (and rationalizing) left-brain of the Bull Market Day-Cycle. If we are not balanced, we do not get eternal life.

    Nature is precise. Time is the precise side of Nature. Science does not reject the precision of Nature once it learns how to measure (and then perceive) such precision.

    MJC, CGTS

    Mar 17 4:02 PM | Link | 5 Comments
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