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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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  • CGTS DAILY REPORT: FOR MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015 -- SELLING TO CONTINUE

    We have had two days of buying. This is a breathing process of course. Sir John Templeton said there were four stages to the bull market -- note: I am still claiming this is not technically a bull market, since FED money (our money) was transferred from the future in a massive amount (trillions) to simulate buying -- that money was essentially stolen from the future and will create a void in buying in the future --and that we have been in a Bear Market since 2001. Hence, I'm expecting a serious correction before 2019, which I will describe again at some future point. Anyway, John Templeton says there are four seasons of a bull market.

    I believe there is much truth to this. But these four seasons of the bull must be viewed in the larger context of the breathing process of the Business Cycle -- that is, 18 years of expansion (Bull Market) always followed by 18 years of contraction and rest (Bear Market).

    FED perversions do not change the laws of nature.

    We want to show another of our trading systems today. M2F/M4, which is very negative today, showing the breathing process of the market. A first wave of selling, a long wave of selling. Followed by a wave of 'buy the dip' buying, those believing every sell-off is a buying opportunity. Stocks then either become real buys (oversold and all trends positive) or return to shortsell conditions (overbought and all trends negative). M2F/M4 is showing a slough of the latter, many signals that we like very much. Here's how are five leading trading systems are doing this year, 2015.

    M2F/M4 has been our least effective so far, up only 18% in 2015. However, its history is that it is one of our strongest systems.

    Column1Column2Column3Column4Column5
    30.49% EMV ASP REMAKE 2015 
    23.32% CGTS L_DIF ASP 2015 
    17.56% M2FALT/M421 Combo 2015
    30.53% M2F JUMBO ** 
    23.59% M2F JUMBO EXTRA 

    Here is the M2F/M4 report at the end of Friday's trading, with trading signals for Monday.

    Column1Column2Column3Column4Column5Column6Column7
    CGTS Daily Report     
    M2F/M4 Combo Trading System     
    8/29/15      
         Today'sYesterday's
    SymbolsCompanyCloseCGTS PROPPositionTradeTrade
           
    CBIChicago Bridge and iron43.75-19ShortEnter Short 
    DBDeutsche Bank29.67-25ShortEnter Short 
    FMCCFreddie Mac Daily2.18-19ShortEnter Short 
    FNMAFannie Mae Daily2.28-19ShortEnter Short 
    HMCHonda Motor Company31.92-23ShortEnter Short 
    ICPTIntercept Pharma188.95-13ShortEnter Short 
    KSUKANSAS CITY SOUTHERN94.58-17ShortEnter Short 
    LNKDLinked In183.94-13ShortEnter Short 
    NSMNationstar Mortgage16.68-25ShortEnter Short 
    OCNOcwen Financial7.26-19ShortEnter Short 
    RIORio Tinto36.6-19ShortEnter Short 
    UALUnited Continental Holdings57.12-17ShortEnter Short 
    VNMVietnam Market Vectors16.36-17ShortEnter Short 
    XINXinyuan Real Estate China2.72-17ShortEnter Short 
    ACHAluminum Corp of China8.64-19Flat Exit Short
    EVEPEV Energy Partners8.29-19Flat Exit Short
    FCXFreeport McMoran Mining10.55Flat Exit Short
    PEIXPACIFIC ETHANOL7.12-17Flat Exit Short
    WLLWhiting Petroleum17.61Flat Exit Short
    ALNYAlnylam Pharma109.071Flat  
    AMSCAmerican Superconductor4.67-15Flat  
    ARAntero Petroleum25.241Flat  
    BBLBHP Billiton34.811Flat  
    BHIBaker Hughes Daily54.723Flat  
    BHPBH Billiton LIMITED36.693Flat  
    BZQShort Brazil Shares ETF132.53-1Flat  
    CHAUCHINA DIRECTION 3x18.38-25Flat  
    CHKChesapeake Energy7.39-19Flat  
    CSUNChina Sunergy Daily1.48-17Flat  
    DBOOIL POWERSHARES DB11.72-13Flat  
    DRYSDry Ships Daily0.441Flat  
    DTOShort (Double Short) Oil102.24-5Flat  
    DUGShort Oil and Gas ETF Daily68.25-1Flat  
    DWTI* Crude Oil Bearish ETF 3x123.32-23Flat  
    DXDShort Dow Industrial ETF23.07-3Flat  
    DZK* Developing Markets Bullish ETF 3x54.83-1Flat  
    ECREclipse Resources Corp3.74-19Flat  
    EDC* Emerging Markets Bullish ETF 3x13.53-19Flat  
    EDZ* Emerging Markets Bearish ETF 3x47.96-3Flat  
    EEVShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Daily23.94-3Flat  
    EMESEmerge Energy Services16.48-1Flat  
    ERX* Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x31.83-1Flat  
    ERY* Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x28.25-1Flat  
    ESIIntl Educational Svc3.83-15Flat  
    FROFrontline Limited Shipping2.7-17Flat  
    FXPShort FTSEChina Index ETF Daily45.12-1Flat  
    GGBGERDAU S.A.1.48-19Flat  
    GNWGenworth Financial5.17-19Flat  
    HALHaliburton38.591Flat  
    IDXIndonesian Index ETF18.2-19Flat  
    INDL* India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x14.65-19Flat  
    IOIon corp0.53-19Flat  
    ISISIsis Pharmaceuticals51.543Flat  
    KORU* South Korean Stocks Bullish ETF 3 x20.08-19Flat  
    LBJ* Latin America Stocks Bullish ETF 3x19.61-19Flat  
    MATL* Basic Materials Stocks Bullish ETF 3x42.29-1Flat  
    MIDU* Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x22.25-19Flat  
    MIDZ* Midcap Stock Bearish ETF 3x46.15-1Flat  
    MNKMallinnkrodt (Biotech)89.93-1Flat  
    MTLMechel Open Joint Stock Company1.083Flat  
    MXWLMaxwell Technologies5.385Long  
    NGNovaGold3.755Long  
    NOGNorthern Oil and Gas5.82-15Flat  
    NOVNational Oilwell Varco41.65-15Flat  
    OILOil ETF8.56-13Flat  
    QIDShort NASDAQ Index ETF35.07-3Flat  
    RSXRussian Index ETF16.48-15Flat  
    RUSS* Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x38.11-23Flat  
    SDOW* Short Dow ETF 3x22-3Flat  
    SINASINA CORP38.741Flat  
    SMDD* Midcap 400 Bearish ETF 3x35.27-3Flat  
    SMNShort Basic Materials36.87-3Flat  
    SOXL* Semiconductor Stocks Bullish ETF 3x22.29-1Flat  
    SOXS* Semiconductor Stocks Bearish ETF 3x58.7-3Flat  
    SQQQ* Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) Bearish ETF 3x24.4-3Flat  
    SRTY* Russell 2000 Bearish ETF 3x30.01-3Flat  
    TASRTaser23.71-19Flat  
    TECL* Technology Stock Buliish ETF 3 x31.38-1Flat  
    TNADirexion Daily Small Cap Bull70.33-1Flat  
    TQQQ* Nasdaq Bullish ETF 3x98.57-1Flat  
    TTMTata Motors25.65-19Flat  
    TZADirexion Daily Small Cap Bear11.56-3Flat  
    UDOW* UP DOW ETF 3x57.03-1Flat  
    UMDD* Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x53.07-7Flat  
    URTY* Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x81.93-1Flat  
    USACUSA Compression Partners20.135Long  
    USOUnited States Oil14.87-13Flat  
    UWTI* Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x1.1951Flat  
    VNRVanguard Natural Resources9.623Flat  
    VVUSVIVUS Inc1.15-19Flat  
    WBKWestpac Bank Corp (Aus)22.74-19Flat  
    XESSPIDER Oil Gas Equipment ETF21.07-15Flat  
    YANG* China Stock Bearish ETF 3x114.281Flat  
    YINN* China Stock Bullish ETF 3x19.75-25Flat  
    YNDXYandex NV12.35-17Flat  
    SRSShort Real Estate ETF Daily52.855LongEnter Long 

    First let's look at one of our favorite shorts from this list, CBI, Chicago Bridge and Iron.

    (click to enlarge)

    SHORT: DB, DEUTSCHE BANK

    (click to enlarge)

    LONG: SRS, SHORT REAL ESTATE ETF

    (click to enlarge)

    We wanted to show a couple of closed positions also:

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    We are short oil long-term and long US Dollar. Oil had a good rally this week. Should we take it seriously. Our CGTS PROP says no. It is a bear rally only, not a turn-around.

    (click to enlarge)

    Best trading,

    MJC, CGTS

    cgts@mindspring.com

    All trading indicators are proprietary.

    We offer a free one-month trial daily trading newsletter.

    Aug 29 5:01 PM | Link | 7 Comments
  • CGTS DAILY REPORT: FRIDAY 28 AUGUST 2015

    Yesterday we looked at our EMV Trading System's daily report. Today, let's look at our daily CGTS PROP 10 TRADING SYSTEM. We are still testing this system. As we said yesterday, using the PROP 10 System, issues giving a PROP reading of -7 or above are potential buys; those giving a PROP reading of less than -7 are potential sells.

    Our PROP 10 trading system requires a reading of +10 for a buy; a downturn of the PROP 10 results in a sell signal; a reading of -10 gives a shortsell signal; and an upturn in PROP 10 closes the short position.

    Here is today's PROP 10 report, sorted by PROP, low to high. In the LOW ZONE, from -25 to -7, we look for signals that confirm the position. For instance, we are short the two issues at the top of the report, both First Solar and US Steel. We went short last week.

    There is only one new position today in the PROP 10 Report: LONG AVEO, Aveo Pharmaceuticals.

    AVEO has tested very positively using PROP 10:

    Column1Column2Column3Column4
    Test Range: 5/27/10 to 8/28/15 
        
    Net P&L: 37.44 
    Percent Net P&L: 466.83% 
        
    Number of Trades: 14 
    Average P&L per Trade: 2.67 
    Percent Winning Trades: 100.00%
        
    Total Days in Test: 1291 
    Percent Days in Market: 89.62% 
    Average P&L per Day: 0.03 
        
    Max Drawdown: 4.35 
    Reward/Risk Ratio: 8.607 
        
    Buy & Hold P&L: -6.60 
    vs. B&H P&L: 44.04 
    vs. B&H Percent P&L: 549.13% 
    vs. B&H Reward/Risk Ratio: 8.935
        
    Current Position: Long 
    Open Trade P&L: 0.00 
    Traded Last Day: Enter Long 

    (click to enlarge)

    Low-price stocks are usually relatively short-term trades using this trading system. AVEO looks good. We especially like the shape of T5 Simple, second pane down, with higher highs and higher lows.

    Here's the report. Remember, when reading this report, it is not enough that an issue be in the BUY ZONE for the PROP 10 Trading System; it must hold the BUY ZONE and climb to +10 to generate a buy signal.

    Column1Column2Column3Column4Column5Column6Column7
    CGTS PROP 10 SYSTEM     
    8/28/15   PROP 10New positionNew position
    SymbolCompanyClosePROP 10POSITIONTODAYYESTERDAY
    FSLRFIRST SOLAR47.79-25Short  
    XUS Steel Corp16.78-25Short  
    DWTI* Crude Oil Bearish ETF 3x123.32-23Flat  
    NUGT* Gold Miners Stocks Bullish ETF 3x3.42-23Flat  
    RUSS* Russian Stocks Bearish ETF 3x38.11-23Flat  
    BCRXBioCryst Pharmaceuticals11.42-19Short  
    ^VIXCRB Volatility Index Daily26.15-19Flat  
    EWVShort MSCI Japan ETF Daily50.33-19Flat  
    ^SSECShanghai Composite3,232.35-17Flat  
    EPVShort MSCI Europe ETF57.68-13Flat  
    ^HUIGold Stock Index Daily116.116-11Flat  
    CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce72.93-11Flat Exit Short
    SSYSStratasys LTD30.02-9Short  
    CURE* Healthcare Stocks Bullish ETF 3x34.15-7Flat  
    DRN* Real Estate Stocks Bullish ETF 3x62.8-7Flat  
    DUST* Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x25-7Flat  
    GDXJGold Junior Minors ETF Daily20.48-7FlatExit Short 
    JDST* Junior Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x9.321-7Flat  
    SHAKShake Shack50.61-7Flat  
    UMDD* Midcap Stocks Bullish ETF 3x53.07-7Flat  
    EOGEOG Resources77.31-5Flat Exit Short
    FAS*Financial Stocks Bullish ETF 3x28.37-5Flat  
    FAZ*Financial Stocks Bearish ETF 3x11.93-3Long  
    BRZU* Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x24.94-1Flat  
    CLRContinental Resources30.88-1Flat  
    DZK* Developing Markets Bullish ETF 3x54.83-1Flat  
    EMESEmerge Energy Services16.48-1Flat  
    ERX* Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x31.83-1Flat  
    JPNL* Japan Stocks Bullish ETF 3x48.97-1Flat  
    MATL* Basic Materials Stocks Bullish ETF 3x42.29-1Flat  
    MNKMallinnkrodt (Biotech)89.93-1Flat  
    NFXNewfield Explorations31.6-1Flat  
    SCTYSolar City48-1Flat  
    SNDKSanDisk Corp52.27-1Flat  
    SOXL* Semiconductor Stocks Bullish ETF 3x22.29-1Flat  
    SPXL* S&P 500 Bullish ETF 3 x77.58-1Flat  
    TECL* Technology Stock Buliish ETF 3 x31.38-1Flat  
    TNADirexion Daily Small Cap Bull70.33-1Flat  
    TQQQ* Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) Bullish ETF 3x98.57-1Flat  
    UDOW* UP DOW ETF 3x57.03-1Flat  
    UPRO* S&P 500 Ultrapro ETF 3x58.61-1Flat  
    URTY* Russell 2000 Bullish ETF 3x81.93-1Flat  
    AVEOAVEO Pharmaceuticals1.42-1LongEnter Long 
    ALNYAlnylam Pharma109.071Flat  
    ARAntero Petroleum25.241Flat  
    BBLBHP Billiton34.811Flat  
    DRYSDry Ships Daily0.441Flat  
    GASL* Natural Gas Stocks Bullish ETF 3x6.521Flat  
    HALHaliburton38.591Flat  
    JNUG* Junior Gold Miners Bullish ETF 3x8.991Flat  
    SINASINA CORP38.741Flat  
    UWTI* Crude Oil Bullish ETF 3x1.1951Flat  
    WLLWhiting Petroleum17.61Flat Exit Short
    BHIBaker Hughes Daily54.723Flat  
    BHPBH Billiton LIMITED36.693Flat  
    ISISIsis Pharmaceuticals51.543Flat  
    MTLMechel Open Joint Stock Company1.083Flat  
    VNRVanguard Natural Resources9.623Flat  
    FCXFreeport McMoran Mining10.55Flat Exit Short
    FINZ* Finciancial Stocks Bearish ETF 3x21.935Flat  
    DGAZ* Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x6.045Long  
    VXXVIX ETF25.865Long  
    RUSL* Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x16.4821Flat  

    You may notice a couple of anomalies here: FAS, Financial Stocks Long, and FAZ, Financial Stocks Short, are both in the BUY ZONE. What's up with this?

    First, let's look at FAS, the bull picture. Note the horrible shape of the T5 Simple, 2nd pane down. Lower lows and lower highs. This makes us highly suspicious of this reading -- we believe it will be short-lived. Look at how weekly the PROP reading pierced the BUY ZONE.

    (click to enlarge)

    We are short the financial stocks. We bought call options on FAZ last week, expecting more selling of financial stocks.

    (click to enlarge)

    FAZ gave a buy signal last week -- but these 3x ETF's are wildly volatile. The current picture suggests that FAZ will hold the BUY ZONE, and FAS will falter and fall back. Time will tell.

    Let's look at oil. We sold our bearish oil position DWTI with a nice gain. Oil rallied hard. But is oil 'back'? Our thesis is that oil will decline as long as the US Dollar advances. A US Dollar Bull is an Oil Bear. What do the charts say, short-term?

    (click to enlarge)

    Despite the big rally in oil, UWTI, Oil Bull ETF, is not giving a buy signal. In terms of the PROP 10 System, UWTI is still negative; and if we zone in to look at the T5 Simple trend, UWTI is still making lower lows and lower highs.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    We do not believe that the oil rally is the real thing.

    Best trading.

    MJC, CGTS

    cgts@mindspring.com

    Aug 28 7:58 PM | Link | Comment!
  • CGTS Daily Report: Buy NFLX; Short ACHN

    We want to demonstrate how our system works. We are highlighting one of our four main trading systems -- actually the most effective over the last two years -- up some 30% in 2015.

    Everyday we run reports for each of these main trading systems. The reports tell us which issues have given any new signals during the last week. The report pulls up a list of issues we follow, with the signals they are giving. We then ask the report to tell us which issues are long, flat, or short -- and which issues are giving new signals today, and yesterday.

    We have written recently about a new indicator we have created and finally understood -- CGTS Prophecy, which we have also called the Maginot Line, and are not calling CGTS Prop -- which establishes parameters for bullish movements or bearish movements -- BUY ZONES and SELL ZONES.

    We are adding this information to our four trading systems, in an attempt to distinguish the trades most likely of outperformance. So we insert into this trading report our CGTS Prop and we sort the entire list by CGTS Prop, low to high, or high to low. (See below.)

    First, here is a table of our four main trading Systems, which are all pretty comparable in performance over the long haul. 2015 results are shown here -- showing EMV as one of our strongest trading systems.

    Column1Column2
    30.49%EMV ASP REMAKE 2015
    30.98%CGTS L_DIF ASP 2015
    18.73%M2FALT/M421 Combo 2015
    35.53%M2F JUMBO 2015

    Note: the original post contained a clerical error showing EMV up only 3%.

    Now we want to screen all signals with CGTS PROP -- that is, shortsell only issues that are in the CGTS PROP SHORTSELL ZONE, Below -7, and buy long only issues in the CGTS PROP BUY ZONE.

    Here is the report: note, the only issue giving a shortsell signal in the last two days that is also in the CGTS PROP Shortsell Zone is ACHN, Achillion Pharma. No issues are giving a buy signal in the last two days; but NFLX (Netflix) is in the LONG position and is in the CGTS PROP Buy Zone . So we will take a look at it also below. For the time being we are avoiding gold and silver stocks because of their dizzying volatility and because of government manipulation of the precious metals markets.

    EMV TRADING SYSTEM     
    8/27/15    Today'sYesterday's
    SYMBOLCompany NameCLosePROPPositionSignalSignal
           
           
           
    ^HUIGold Stock Index Daily111.357-23Short  
    AEMAgnico-Eagle Mines23.49-23Short  
    GGGold Corp13.69-23Short  
    HMYHomestake Mining0.905-23Short  
    INDL* India Stocks Bullish ETF 3x14.64-23Flat  
    NUGT* Gold Miners Stocks Bullish ETF 3x3.11-23Short  
    USLV* Silver Stocks Bullish ETF 3x12.09-23Short  
    ^XAUPhiladelphia Gold and Silver Index Daily46.84-21Short  
    ABXAmerican Barricks Gold6.84-21Short  
    GDXJGold Junior Minors ETF Daily19.5-21Short  
    HLHecla Mining1.9-21Short  
    JNUG* Junior Gold Miners Bullish ETF 3x7.8-21Short  
    RGLDRoyal Gold Inc48.02-21Short  
    ACHNAchilliion Pharma7.51-19Short Enter Short
    FROFrontline Limited Shipping2.55-19Flat  
    VVUSVIVUS Inc1.11-19Flat  
    KGJIKinggold Jewelry0.7-17Flat  
    NEMNewmont Mining Daily16.7-17Short  
    AMSCAmerican Superconductor4.51-15Flat  
    CORTCorcept Therapeutics5.07-15Flat Exit Short
    ESIIntl Educational Svc3.705-15Flat Exit Short
    CHOPChina Gerui Adv Materials1.28-13FlatExit Short 
           
           
    ALGTAllegiant Travel209.79-5Flat  
    INFYInfosys17.265-5FlatExit Long 
    PEPPepsi Daily93.6-5Flat  
    SNASNAP-ON INC160.05-5Flat  
    SPGSimon Property Group185.62-5Flat  
    TQQQ* Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) Bullish ETF 3x98.65-5Flat Exit Short
    CHRWCH Robinson Worlwide67.82-3Flat  
    MOAltria Group53.74-3Flat  
    SQQQ* Nasdaq Bearish ETF 3x24.36-3Flat Exit Long
    SSRISilver Standard Resources6.09-3Flat  
    TECS* Technology Stock Bearish ETF 3 x41-3Flat Exit Long
    JDST* Junior Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x11.17-1Long  
    KORU* South Korean Stocks Bullish ETF 3 x19.81-1Flat  
    MCDMc Ddonalds Daily97.33-1Flat  
    ATVIActivision Blizzard27.931Flat  
    AZOAuto Zone724.781FlatExit Long 
    FITBFirst Third Bancorp19.941Flat  
    JPNL* Japan Stocks Bullish ETF 3x47.651Flat  
    TECL* Technology Stock Buliish ETF 3 x31.271Flat Exit Short
    CDECoeur D'Alene Daily3.233Flat  
    SBND* Long-Bond Bearish ETF 3x4.813Long  
    TTT* 20+ Year Treasury Short ETF 3x39.33Long  
    NGNovaGold3.555Flat Exit Long
           
    DUST* Gold Miners Bearish ETF 3x27.7611Long  
    NFLXNetflix117.61817Long  
    DSLV* Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x71.6921Long  
    SDPShort utilities ETF Daily52.42921Long  
           

    This chart is unnecessarily complicated -- I apologize. EMV indicator is green in the third pane from the top. Below that is the registration of the EMV signals in the price pane. And below that, in red, is the CGTS PROP indicator, demonstrating the Buy and Sell Zones. How has EMV traded ACHN this year:

    Column1Column2Column3Column4
    65 Short 10 01/26/15 02/09/15 +3.94 +25.26 Exit Short Rule
    66 Short 44 02/27/15 05/01/15 +3.01 +24.79 Exit Short Rule
    67 Short 18 05/19/15 06/15/15 +1.95 +18.26 Exit Short Rule
    68 Short 14 07/22/15 08/11/15 +1.78 +19.58 Exit Short Rule
    69 Short 1 08/26/15 08/27/15 -0.21 -2.88 Open

    (click to enlarge)

    NFLX, Netflix. EMV is giving a buy signal.

    (click to enlarge)We wanted to show one closed trade, so we picked TQQQ, which we covered yesterday, after a lovely short trade, a 35 point gain over a two-week period.

    (click to enlarge)

    We are hesitant to take a lot of long trades; we are convinced that the market has topped. We will talk about this more over the weekend.

    Best trading.

    MJC, CGTS

    We offer one-month free trial newsletters.

    cgts@mindspring.com

    Aug 27 9:01 PM | Link | Comment!
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