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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
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TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
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  • CGTS TRADING CORNER: BUY CANDIAN BANKS?

    Our most accurate trading systems have come from a proprietary indicator we call EMV ASP, which analyzes buying and selling strength based on how long an issue stays in the buying phase and how long it stays in the selling phase.

    We have developed several trading systems using this EMV ASP indicator. Generally they are our best trading systems. EMV ASP REMAKE is our best intermediate term instrument: it has gained 33% since beginning trading in October 2014.

    We have worked to shorten this trading system into a an accurate short-term trading system. EMV ASP Remake Trade is up 17% in the same time frame. EMV ASP Remake Trade ST (Short-Term) is up 2.18% since we began trading it last week. This past week we decided by modify the length of the indicator itself, making the indicator a shorter signal. Our earlier attempts at developing a trading system using this indicator had centered on modifying sell signal triggers. But shortening the indicator itself generated a whole new entity.

    The chart below shows trading in BSX, Boston Scientific; and shows the EMV ASP indicator, to which we have been referring. When EMV ASP goes positive the buyers are in control; when it goes negative, sellers have taken over. When EMV ASP goes negative, but trends remain positive, we do not respond; but when EMV ASP goes negative, and trends also break down, we sell.

    (click to enlarge)This chart shows our most consistent trading indicator at work. The other short-term trading versions of this system work with the same EMV ASP indicator, but use different sell signals designed to trade shorter-term intervals.

    This week, we shortened this indicator -- EMV ASP Tester. Look at the results of this experiment. EMV ASP Tester is a different animal.

    (click to enlarge)Interesting, yes. But what do we make of it? Can it become a viable Trading trigger? We discovered that this new indicator had a rather astonishing accuracy rate. Trades tended to be short, between 1 and 2 weeks, with relatively small but consistent gains. For instance, Apple Computer traded 207 times from 1984 through the present, returning 199 winning trades and eight losing trades. The average gain was .79 points, many trades lasting less than a week. Can one live on such small gains? Here is a record of trades since 2013:

    Column1Column2Column3Column4Column5Column6
    190 Short 9 01/02/13 01/15/13 +9.02 +11.49 Exit Short Rule
    191 Short 9 02/07/13 02/21/13 +3.17 +4.73 Exit Short Rule
    192 Short 10 03/18/13 04/02/13 +3.70 +5.69 Exit Short Rule
    193 Long 6 04/22/13 04/30/13 +6.30 +11.06 Exit Long Rule
    194 Long 5 06/28/13 07/11/13 +4.39 +7.76 Exit Long Rule
    195 Long 19 09/17/13 10/14/13 +5.82 +8.94 Exit Long Rule
    196 Long 5 11/08/13 11/15/13 +0.63 +0.85 Exit Long Rule
    197 Long 32 12/18/13 02/11/14 -2.12 -2.69 Exit Long Rule
    198 Long 10 02/26/14 03/17/14 +1.34 +1.82 Exit Long Rule
    199 Long 12 04/07/14 04/28/14 +10.09 +13.49 Exit Long Rule
    200 Long 5 06/24/14 07/01/14 +3.24 +3.59 Exit Long Rule
    201 Long 6 08/11/14 08/19/14 +4.54 +4.73 Exit Long Rule
    202 Long 23 09/08/14 10/10/14 +2.37 +2.41 Exit Long Rule
    203 Long 4 10/16/14 10/22/14 +6.73 +6.99 Exit Long Rule
    204 Long 18 12/02/14 12/29/14 -0.72 -0.63 Exit Long Rule
    205 Long 14 01/05/15 01/26/15 +6.85 +6.45 Exit Long Rule
    206 Long 22 03/06/15 04/08/15 -1.00 -0.79 Exit Long Rule
    207 Long 1 05/07/15 05/08/15 +2.36 +1.88 Open 

    The XCI, Amex Computer Index, and the XOI, Oil and Gas Index, both traded at nearly a 90% accuracy rate; the XCI gained an average of 21 points per trade; the XOI at an average of 17 points per trade.

    Could this system be used for trading options?

    We ran a scan on our database to see what indices and high priced stocks to see what kind of signals we received this Thursday night. We got nearly 20 signals. We decided to follow them, see how they did. We were more than pleased after one day of trading. The portfolio was up almost 3% in one day of trading. Notice issues bearing as asterisk (•) before their name, ETFs trade 3 times the underlying issue, seem to be doing very well after one day of trading.

    Column1Column2Column3Column4Column5Column6
    CLOSEPositionGainSymbolBoughtIssue
    94.69Long3.83%SPXL5/8/15* S&P 500 Bullish ETF 3 x
    111.16Long3.60%TQQQ5/8/15* Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) Bullish ETF 3x
    127.62Long1.81%AAPL5/8/15Apple Daily
    142.94Long3.82%UPRO5/8/15* S&P 500 Ultrapro ETF 3x
    153.53Long3.95%TECL5/8/15* Technology Stock Buliish ETF 3 x
    149.64Long4.37%UDOW5/8/15* UP DOW ETF 3x
    930.69Long1.40%^OEX5/8/15S&P 100 Index
    1,409.92Long1.20%^XOI5/8/15Oil Stock Index
    1,652.41Long1.44%^XCI5/8/15Amex Computer Index Daily
    2,116.10Long1.28%^GSPC5/8/15S&P 500 Index
    4,458.65Long1.23%^NDX5/8/15Nasdaq Index Daily
    4,205.92Long2.21%^SSEC5/8/15Shanghai Composite
    18,191.11Long1.42%^DJI5/8/15DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
    19,379.19Long0.39%^N2255/8/15Nikei Japan Index
    33.2Short3.88%SPXU5/8/15* Short S&P 500 Index ETF 3x
    24.26Short3.55%SQQQ5/8/15* Nasdaq Bearish ETF 3x
    20.24Short2.58%SDS5/8/15* Ultra Short S&P 500 3x
    17.89Short3.80%SPXS5/8/15* S&P 500 Bearish ETF 3x
    18.19Short4.30%SDOW5/8/15* Short Dow ETF 3x
    9.4Short4.02%TECS5/8/15* Technology Stock Bearish ETF 3 x

    Of course I understand that one day of trading is no true gauge of an indicator's worth. But we do have a longer history of the same indicator (a longer version of the same indicator) trading with exceptional live-time accuracy. So, we ARE excited. No trading indicator we have developed over many years of similar activity has excited us the way this one has. Time will tell, of course.

    We got a series of signals again tonight. At first, we resolved to use this system only with high-priced indexes and stocks. But then we noticed that it also traded lower-priced stocks with great accuracy and good returns.

    This is how JCP, JC Penney, traded since 2013:

    Column1Column2Column3Column4Column5
    208 Long 6 01/15/13 01/24/13 +0.41 +2.19 Exit Long Rule
    209 Short 4 02/25/13 03/01/13 +3.82 +17.76 Exit Short Rule
    210 Short 5 03/19/13 03/26/13 +1.28 +7.86 Exit Short Rule
    211 Long 8 04/11/13 04/23/13 +0.59 +3.97 Exit Long Rule
    212 Short 5 05/28/13 06/04/13 +0.76 +4.06 Exit Short Rule
    213 Short 5 07/12/13 07/19/13 +1.22 +6.94 Exit Short Rule
    214 Short 6 08/21/13 08/29/13 +0.93 +6.98 Exit Short Rule
    215 Short 7 09/10/13 09/19/13 +1.10 +7.72 Exit Short Rule
    216 Long 6 10/22/13 10/30/13 +1.05 +16.03 Exit Long Rule
    217 Short 4 12/02/13 12/06/13 +1.93 +19.28 Exit Short Rule
    218 Short 4 01/02/14 01/10/14 +1.54 +17.34 Exit Short Rule
    219 Long 8 02/05/14 02/18/14 +0.89 +17.05 Exit Long Rule
    220 Long 3 02/25/14 02/28/14 +1.65 +29.31 Exit Long Rule
    221 Long 7 04/16/14 04/30/14 +1.26 +17.36 Exit Long Rule
    222 Long 8 07/15/14 07/25/14 +0.64 +7.49 Exit Long Rule
    223 Short 14 08/28/14 09/22/14 +0.68 +6.27 Exit Short Rule
    224 Long 3 01/05/15 01/08/15 +1.51 +23.45 Exit Long Rule
    225 Long 10 01/22/15 02/06/15 +0.31 +4.14 Exit Long Rule
    226 Long 8 03/12/15 03/24/15 +0.57 +7.61 Exit Long Rule

    How would this system work trading near-term options.

    Here is today's new signals:

    Column1Column2Column3Column4
    EMV ASP TESTER ORIG  
        
    ABX12.75LONGAm Barracks Gold
    ARGT21.87LONGArgentina
    BABA87.06SHORTAlibaba
    BHI67.7LONGBaker Hughes
    CM78.82LONGCanadian Imperial Bank
    COL97.26LONGRockwell Collins
    DFS59.01LONGDiscovery Fin Svc
    ERX64.13LONGEnergy Stock Bullish 3 x
    ERY16.84SHORTEnergy Stock Bear 3x
    EWM13.68LONGMalaysia
    EWS13.57LONGSingapore
    GILD103.85LONGGilead Sciences
    H SI27577.34LONGCHINA INDEX
    HAL48.11LONGHaliborton
    HCG.TO43.67LONGHome Capital Gr Canada
    HUI175.988LONGGOLD INDEX
    LBTYA50.41LONGLiberty Global
    RY65.52LONGRoyal Bank Canada
    SNP92.02LONGChina Petrol
    SSL39.03LONGSassol Ltd SAfrica
    SSRI5.355LONGSilver Standar Res
    TD46.01LONGToronto Dom Bank
    WLL35.45LONGWhiting Petro

    Notice a series of buy signals for Canadian banks. This is a trading indicator that we think will trade options well. But the Canadian banks are not very volatile and might not be the best candidates for this system used with options. We attempted to analyze which of these trades, using this system, would make the best candidates using short-term options.

    We attempted to compare options with the same month expiration, slightly in-the-money. We compared how many of each option could be bought for a fixed amount of money ($500 in this case; but it could be any fixed amount); for a "volatility" measure we used the averages of our own trading system.

    Through this analysis, ERY, the Short Energy Stocks ETF, is the best option purchase of this group, with a possible return of nearly 16 points on a $500 investment. HAL is next; BHI next, ERX, then SRSI and then BABA. Canadian bank stocks offer rather dismal prospects using this system with options. We will avoid them.

    Column1Column3Column4Column5Column6Column7Column8Column9
    5/8/15StrikeOpt# OPtRealAvg GainPot GainOPTION
    EMV ASP TESTER ORIGCost Cost   
            
    ERY171.153.821.314.1215.73ERY JUNE19 17 puts @ 1.15
    HAL481.912.482.023.137.75HAL JUNE19 48 calls @ 1.91
    BHI67.52.152.132.353.186.77BHI JUNE19 67.5 calls @ 2.15
    ERX644.71.044.836.466.69ERX JUNE19 64 calls @ 4.7
    SSRI50.654.981.0051.326.57SSRI JUNE19 5 calls @ .65
    BABA87.52.931.483.374.126.11BABA JUNE19 87.5 puts @ 2.93
    ABX121.072.751.821.664.56ABX JUN19 12 CALLS @ 1.07
    WLL352.61.643.052.464.03WLL June19 35 calls @ 2.6
    SNP905.10.707.123.82.67SNP JUNE19 90 calls @ 5.1
    RY6521.982.521.142.26RY JUNE19 65 calls @ 2
    LBTYA501.92.162.311.042.25LBRYA June19 50 calls @ 1.9
    TD451.7851.792.7950.841.50TD JUNE19 45 calls @ 1.75
    DFS57.52.351.303.861.141.48DFS JUNE19 57.5 calls @ 2.35
    COL953.40.885.661.541.36COL JUNE19 95 calls @ 3.4
    CM755.20.559.022.081.15CM JUNE19 75 calls @ 5.2
    ARGT212.051.712.920.661.13ARGT JULY 21 calls @ 2.05
    SSL354.60.588.631.510.87SSL JUNE19 35 calls @ 4.6
    EWS131.12.991.670.270.81EWS JUNE19 13 calls @ 1.1
    GILD1005.50.539.350.890.48GILD JUNE19 100 calls @ 5.5
    EWMNO OPT      
    H SINO OPT      
    HCG.TONO OPT      
    HUINO OPT      

    If a trader could buy only one of these options, we would recommend shorting the put option on ERY, the Energy Stock ETF, which is essentially the same trade as going long the ERX call but with less cost and therefore with more potential return.

    (click to enlarge)

    We will keep the reader informed as to how this short-term trading system is doing.

    Have a good weekend.

    MJC, CGTS

     
          
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
      
    May 09 2:24 AM | Link | Comment!
  • DEFLATION WORKS. YES. AND THIS IS WHY WE NEED DEFLATION.

    This post was written initially in response to Bill Bonner's article "Deflation Works" posted on SA this week:

    seekingalpha.com/article/3160186-deflati...

    Bill, I hate to disagree with you, since you are becoming one of my favorite SA writers. I love the title. I agree with much of what you write in this. But I have to object to the idea that deflations are short and sweet unless government gets in the way.

    Much comes from how one defines deflations or depressions. I wholeheartedly agree that MORE DEBT is the worst medicine for a patient that is dying of DEBT SUFFOCATION. This is the story of the world (and the US) in 1929 and 2001; however this was not the story of the world (and the US) in 1965. Wage inflation (visible inflation) fueled the growth season in 1947-1965; debt inflation (invisible inflation -- that is, inflation that the CPI can ignore) fueled the growth in 1911-1929 and 1983-2001. Still, in all these cases, the growth season (the inflation) lasted 18 years, and then died. And we then spent the next 18 years trying to figure out 'how to fix it'. Creation (inflation of creative energy) lasts 18 years; that energy wearies, turns inside out and upside down, and becomes destructive energy. If you look at the 1930's you can say that the Depression would have ended in 1936 or 1941 or when -- but when you look at this as an 18 year absence of creative expansion, you understand how serial depressions are part of this Deflation Season, interrupted by weak attempts at growth. We had re-recessions or deep-recessions in 1929-1933, 1937-1938, 1945-1947. If we separate these and view them as separate events, we do not see them for what they are: serial deflations during the Deflation Season (1929-1947).

    Recessions aren't the true measurement of economic seasons but simply measurements of periodical rests, down-times in the economic cycle. We have recessions during expansions and recessions during deflations. Recessions are the 'night' season, the daily rest cycles, in the system, as expansions are the 'days', the active energy-spending times, the body-active times in the system.

    Recessions are body rest times in the economic cycles, when energy-spending is replaced by energy-conservation (SAVING) -- which is an anathema to GDP, which measures only spending, and which considers non-spending periods as a sign of sickness. This GDP perspective is the same as would be a doctor attempting to warn a human patient against sleeping at night, because sleeping interferes with productivity, spending, and material accumulation.

    Deflation is sleeping, rest, conserving energy, dreaming, saving. It is as vital to the Day-Cycle energy-spending creative expansion as is sleep to the individual. FED policy is attempting to deprive us of our sleep, in order to protect the one-sided perspective of Spending as Virtue and Saving as Evil.

    If we see these seasons as akin to Earth's four seasons, we have a more exact kind of notation: 1929-1938: Summer-Autumn: Disinflation Season; 1938-1947: Autumn-Winter: Deflation Season; 1947-1956: Winter-Spring: 1956-1965: Reflation Season; 1956-1965: Spring-Summer: Inflation Season....

    US Historical Deflations

    2001 - 2019: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos
    1965 - 1983: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos
    1929 - 1947: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos
    1893 - 1911: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos
    1857 - 1875: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos
    1821 - 1839: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos
    1785 - 1803: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos
    1749 - 1767: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos
    1713 - 1731: Night Cycle Deflation, Social Fragmentation, Chaos

    Each one of these Deflation Seasons involves a serial depression that rises and falls, that gives way to attempts to inflate, attempts that fail. Deflation Seasons do not last for ever. They are always succeeded by new world-creation periods, and a re-building of the world, with new models of technology and so-called reason empowered. Day-Cycles are man-on-top periods; Night-Cycles are woman-on-top periods; Night-Cycles are hard for men, because men lose their power when the Spending Season ends, and their ability to control nature magically vanishes.

    I agree that deflation does work -- and is necessary to the system -- is positive as well as negative. It destroys the Old World (the 'old' created world) and prepares for the creation of the New World (for example, the world 'we' created from 1983-2001 'we' are no destroying, to make way for the next creation). There are two main parts of the cycle: Inflation/Expansion, the Spending Season, which is aided by lower and lower interest rates, and by spending -- this season is what GDP measures; Deflation/Contraction, the Saving Season, which is aided by higher and higher interest rates, and by saving -- which GDP sees as a crime, sees as a negative, sees as a sickness.

    The Spending Season sees the separation of the society into a hierarchy of rich on top and poor on bottom -- but generally the entire society doing better because money is circulating freely -- think of money as the blood system in the body -- the more the blood circulates, the more the society is invigorate, from top to bottom. The Saving Season (Deflation) is supposed to see that separation of society return to the horizontal position. The gap between rich and poor lessens over the 18 years. Entrepreneurs or speculators are not rewarded with bank monetary policy, as they are in the Day Cycle of Expansion. Conservative saving is rewarded; interest rates rise; savers (the so-called mass) are supported by bank policy. When we sleep, the blood does not circulate in frenzied fashion through our bodies. Energy is conserved; excess blood goes to the brain; the Night-Cycle is a dream-time cycle, in which the mind is active (the dream-mind) and the body rests.

    Deflation does several major things that reinvigorates the society: 1) prices fall; 2) the gap between the rich and poor is lessened, which helps avert social or class strife, and even class warfare, civil war; 3) higher interest rates lead to safe investment and gain, which leads to the amassing of a nest-egg this mass (the 99%) can use for investment when the next leg up begins, the next creation of the world. 4) Higher interest rates also destroy bad loans, and reduce debt in a major way, which is one of the main benefits of the deflation season. Clear the decks, and begin again the expansion process.

    Think of how much bad debt we would have avoided if we had begun raising interest rates diligently and on time in 2001. When the business cycle ends (...1929, 1965, 2001...) make debt MORE EXPENSIVE. Trying to lure people into debt with lower interest rates after expansion ends is immoral and destructive. The whole point of this is to reward those on top who have the most to lose by the end of the cycle. As we have watched, FED action is to save the 1% who have the most to lose by the ending of the business cycle. So attempts by the central bank to extend the Business Cycle are an attempt to extend the gap between the rich and the poor, to keep the 1% rich and make them richer, and to keep the Summer Season going for ever. This is unwise, even criminal, from the perspective of the Laws of Nature.

    To be clear: I do believe that government has a role to play in all of this. During the Inflation Season, government needs to get out of the way of Capitalism and let people and companies and systems expand. Interest rates come down. The government needs to encourage people to grow, become wealthy, to reach their goals. Taxes should be low. Spending should be encouraged.

    But we all need to understand that every expansion is limited, and is limited by time most of all. We all need to become aware of the life of a Business Cycle.

    The government needs to encourage Capitalism (Man On Top) throughout the life of the Business Cycle. But then the Growth Cycle ends, and government needs to take the helm. Capitalism goes into stasis (1929, 1965, 2001...) when the business cycle ends. We need to be so flexible as nations in our understanding of how the world works so that we are able to shift from Capitalism as a defining style of living to Socialism as a defining style of living at the end of each of these 18 year cycles.

    We need, as nations, to be Capitalists by Day and Socialists by Night. Corporations share the root 'corp', which means 'of the body' in Latin. Corporations are about the body; Day-Cycles are about the life of the body. When Day-Cycles end, the body is forced into rest, retirement, conservation of energy; until it rises again at dawn, with regenerated energy, to carry the physical evolution of the world one step further.

    The government's role, when the Business Cycle ends, is fairly simple: raise interest rates, slowly, steadily. This continues for 18 years. Some will argue that higher interest rates will hamper economic growth. But no economic growth is possible during the Night-Cycle, during the Saving Season.

    Everything is Nature (and this includes Man and Man's created systems) grows and then rests. This is a fundamental law of nature -- there is no short-circuiting this law, no avoiding it. So we raise interest rates during No-Growth Seasons. This makes money more expensive, discourages or even eliminates debt after the Business Cycle Expansion has ended.

    We must become socialists in the Night Cycle. Taxes on the wealthy go up. Those who got rich during the Capitalist Day-Cycle get to pay for the survival of the society during the Socialist Night-Cycle. They get to be the heroes whose success finances the Non-Growth Season. Social services expand during the Night-Cycle. The society becomes a family during the Night-Cycle; everyone gets to belong. And we finance increased social services through taxes, and NOT through expanding debt. The Night-Cycle is about destroying bad debt, not increasing it.

    What we are doing today is the opposite of what needs to be done during a Night-Cycle. Our version of socialism today is protecting the rich, socialism for the rich. We are attempting to preserve Capitalism by stealing money from the future to give to the dying Capitalist structure (which began dying when the Business Cycle ended). Only companies that are able to survive the Night-Cycle deserve to continue on to the next Growth Season. The state has no responsibility to protect corporations -- this is Fascism at its worst.

    Corporations need to understand that they need to plan for 18 years of growth (and low taxation) followed by 18 years of non-growth (and high-taxation)...corporations need to plan for the larger cycles, not just for the short-term. They need to plan for both their expansion and success and their contraction and inevitable difficulties. And we will NEVER use ZIRP or QE to funnel public moneys into the pockets of the richest people on the Earth in an attempt to circumvent Nature's Laws. During periods of growth, we all get rich together (in a relative sense); during periods of non-growth and economic challenge, we all get poor together. We are individuals by Day; we are a family by Night. Women on top during the Night; Men on top during the Day.

    This is how we resolve the duality of social conflict. Both the right and the left are correct about the world, from their perspectives. And these perspectives coincide with and define and are defined by 'seasons' in the social calendar. We need to live CONSCIOUSLY by these seasons also. Which is what democracy is, the Conscious sharing of power and perspectives of Day and Night, of Man and Woman, of Reason and Imagination, of Sun and Moon (symbolically speaking).

    The right and the left are both correct from their perspectives and their 'resident seasons' within the whole, and are also not correct. Both the right and the left see their own virtues and their opponents' vices; but they do not see their own failings, misunderstandings, and vices and they do not see the wisdom of their opponents. Both see only 1/2 of the world.

    The implication here is that traditional Republicanism should rule the Day-Cycle and tradition Democraticsm should rule the Night-Cycle. This is, in fact, what happens -- generally speaking. Today, this process is being perverted by the 1% who own nearly everything and who run the world are refusing to give up their power and come back to join the rest of us. They are willing to forsake the rest of human society, in order to keep their own fortunes growing and their own power intact. President Obama's message in 2008-9 was in keeping with the Democratic philosophy of Sharing the Wealth by Night (2001-2019 is the Night); but his obeisance to Wall Street, which Bill Clinton instituted in 1998, has meant that selfishness and greed and rugged individualism (how rugged is it, when they own 99% of the world's wealth) has not stepped down to embrace their place in the world of equals. The Central Bank did its job during the Inflation Season, 1983-2001, lowering interest rates to encourage growth; but it has not done its job since 2001; it has instead broken Nature's Law, and put it on the side of Satanic or Saturnine selfishness and theological disgrace.

    The BOOK OF REVELATION discusses the importance of the 'one-third'. What does this mean?

    The first angel sounded his trumpet, and there came hail and fire mixed with blood, and it was hurled down on the earth. A third of the earth was burned up, a third of the trees were burned up, and all the green grass was burned up. (NIV Revelation 8:7)

    This is an esoteric passage. One needs to understand the abstract mechanism of world creation in order to understand this meaning. There are three parts to the world: Heaven and Earth, the High and the Low, as fixed entities, fixed positions and philosophies. The third part is the middle principle (the Creative Principle) that is both Heaven and Earth, that is both High and Low, that is, in fact, complete, the world as it is outside of Time, the first and the last principle. Heaven and Earth are not complete; they are poles that separate the creation into a kind of atomic unity, inside of which we move and live and have our being. Three Principles, each endowed with perspective and stability, but only one of these Principles also being endowed with mobility. The Middle Principle, the Soul if you will, joins the Day Side to help create the Earth; joins the Republicans to help create the material world; joins and becomes the Capitalist by Day. That same Middle Principle changes sides when the Day begins to weaken (2001 is Noon) and becomes the Socialist when Night falls (2013 is Dusk).

    The Middle Principle cannot rest; the Middle Principle re-creates the Earth by Day, and re-creates Heaven by Night. The Soul joins the Body to create the Day-Cycle material world, the world of 'low' principles of the survival of the individual in a jungle world -- clearly Man as an Animal -- and then the Soul joins the Spirit to create (create always means re-create) the group in the Heavenly City, with the 'high' principles of justice, freedom, equality, peace -- clearly Man as an Angel or a form of divinity -- when the Material Day transforms into the Anti-Material Night (as in "anti-matter").

    Thus, when the Soul joins the Day-Cycle force of Life, the Republican Day-Cycle view triumphs (this usually brings war into the world), then power shifts to the Republican view, the new 2/3 Force, with the Night-Cycle Democratism shifting to the weak 1/3 Force. This happens at midnight (1983 in the last cycle; think of the 1983 weakening of the Democratic Night Cycle, President Carter, and the strengthening of the Republican Day-Cycle, President Reagan, as symbolic of this transition from Spirit (Dream) to Body, from Anti-Matter to Matter; 2019 in the current cycle). When the 2/3 strength is on the side of material life, the Day-Cycle runs its course, and the material world evolves, body life strengthens, social forms expand. Man becomes rich and strong, brilliant and powerful; so powerful man begins to challenge the gods, building structures into heaven; becoming a kind of man-god, in fact. Read the story of the Tower of Babel, to see what comes next in the Biblical concord of sequences.

    But then 'life of the body' reaches its time and height limit, expanse limit, (2001, 1965, 1929...), the Soul changes sides, turning inside out and upside down, shifting allegiance to the poor, the Spiritual, the weak, the needy, the shadow-world. Order begins to evaporate. Chaos begins to grow stronger. The destruction of the world created and built during the previous life-cycle (1983-2001, for instance) begins to dissolve. Dissolve is the right word for this. The Day-Cycle is built on earth, solid, stable; the Night-Cycle is built (or unbuilt) on water. This is why the building of the Ark is the correct building process during the Night-Cycle, because the Water Element (the Female Principle, ruled by the Moon -- we understand the Moon's effect on the oceans) takes over. Water rises.

    Water rises from Noon to Midnight. Midnight is represented by the image of Noah's Ark coming to rest on the top of Mount Ararat. The idea of God's covenant and the Promised Land is about God's promise that the time of terror, dissolution, de-creation, darkness will eventually flow into the Earth Element again, the Promised Land. We will be able to disembark from the Ark, stand on land again, stability finally -- God is promising that we will return to Earth after our time in the ocean, our time of dissolving solidities, terror, chaos, de-creation, material loss. The Lord gives, and the Lord takes away. That is the law. When we fight this law, when we resist it -- "my will, and not Thy will" -- we invite and usually receive disaster.

    Each Night-Cycle includes the journey to the top of the Night-Cycle mountain (Sinai, the Mountain of the Moon) by the race's "workers on the inside", poets, priests, philosopher, mystics, prophets, in order to communicate with the Spiritual (Invisible) side of Life. The Dreamers. In order to get new laws about life on Earth, the same way that Moses journeyed through the inside passage to the top of Sinai to get new laws from God. The top of Mount Sinai and the top of the Mount Ararat are similar symbolically. Both are the top of the spiritual Mountain, as Mount Olympus is the top of the Day-Cycle material mountain. Olympus is the top of the Body Mountain, where the heroes gather; Sinai is the top of the Spirit Mountain, where the solitary spiritual seeker faces God alone, face to face.

    Engineers build the Day-Cycle Material World; but society's rejects, poets, artists, priests, prophets, philosophers, the denizens of the Night-Cycle world, the Dreamers, and the Spirits, tell them and show them what to build. The real heroes are the spiritual seekers who risk everything to make the perilous journey into Night to find God and to attempt to bring his wisdom back down to the Earth, more often than not to those who doubt the very existence of the world and spiritual beings from whom this Wisdom emanates.

    Science, for instance, does not believe in the invisible world, wants to declare insane any force that does not fit into its material world catalogue of events. Science is always behind. It only begins to believe in unseen forces and events when it can create a machine to measure such forces. Science now believes in electro-magnetism; it now believes in antimatter; it now believes in dark matter. It did not always believe in these invisible forces. Science is dependent upon technology. It only believes when its machines measure such realities. In fact, this worship of machines is the very essence of what is called in the Old Testament 'idolatry'.

    The basis of Day-Cycle expansion and evolution is the idolatry of the machine. When the machine dies, the Day-Cycle goes with it. The machine is the god of the Day-Cycle.

    In 2019, we will all face God, alone. Some of us will be given new laws of nature, new commandments, to help us survive on Earth. We bring these truths back down the mountain, give these truths to the humans below. They will do with them what they will. If they disobey these laws, the vengeful God will reappear and wreak retribution on those who break the laws of nature. The isolated one-third will be those who are resisting God's law, and refusing to share their wealth with the Night-Cycle majority, insisting on tricks and sophisticated monetary manipulations to funnel more money to the richest 1%, to the detriment of the 99% (or the 2/3 Force, in the example above).

    Religious though is not about faith, it is about vision, seeing the truth with one's mind. Three steps: 1) Religion through faith; 2) anti-religion through intellect; 3) the Second Religion (remember Osvald Spengler's 'Second Religion'), through mental, spiritual, apperception of the blueprint for God's creation.

    Michael J. Clark, CGTS

    May 08 3:15 PM | Link | 4 Comments
  • RESPECT FOR THE FED? NO. NOT MUCH.

    Respect for the FED? No. Not much. The FED has a very simple job to do -- micromanagement of markets is not their responsibility. The FED has only one job. To lead the economy out of its cyclical deflation by lowering interest rates; and to lead the economy out of its cyclical inflation by raising rates. The first part of this job the FED almost always does well; the second part it never does well. It is conceptually handicapped by trying to hammer a square peg (the idea that perpetual economic expansion is possible) into a round hole (aren't all holes round? The reality that Nature, and everything in Nature, breathes, expands and contracts). We are experiencing a classic denial of reality, based somewhat on good intentions. We need to follow Nature. We need BOTH expansion of spending and the evolution of civilization that goes with this AND the end of that expansion, rest, conservation of energy that is the basis of the rest season, and saving to replace spending as the driver of this dual cycle.

    If we know the cycles of Nature, and it is the FED's job to know this, the task becomes simple:

    Lower rates from 1911-1929; raise rates from 1929-1947; lower rates from 1947-1965; raise rates from 1965-1983; lower rates from 1983-2001; raise rates from 2001-2019; lower rates from 2019-2037....

    We are one-sided. We want only the pleasure side of life, the bright sunny side, the youth. But this is childish. Of course the child wants only candy. But are his parents supposed to give him only candy. If they do he never grows up; or he grows up stupid and fat with bad teeth. Where is the discipline here? The FED is supposed to be imposing discipline on the child. We expand, we get rich, we spend money, we are happy, the sun is shining. But then the day gets old, and the party has to end. The FED is unwilling to say that the party is ending. Lowering interest rates and flooding money into the economy to keep cost of carry debt low is a FED (a parent) who refuses to discipline his children. We become spoiled; decadent; eventually we will be overthrown as a nation because we have leaders who are afraid to give us bad news, that reality is not quite what we want. We have gutless parents who are willing to let the entire system we have created to bankrupt rather than to have to play the role of the bad guy who says "enough is enough". "We have to face reality."

    We will get a strong Father figure who will put his foot down. This will bring in suffering and austerity, probably connected with war. That is what ususally happens in history when the Mother Principle rules too long and spoils the children and the Father Principle (which includes the concept of discipline, and self-discipline) has been shunted out of the picture (because he's not intellectually sophisticated enough to 'know what is real'). Civilization dies from a lack of self-discipline; and from a people who insist on being told only the good news.

    MJC, CGTS

    Apr 22 10:26 PM | Link | 3 Comments
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