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cscott24

cscott24
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  • Ocwen Financial beats by $0.14, beats on revenue [View news story]
    This shouldn't be a shock to any value investor. With 50% of the float being short, one would believe the stock price should apprecaite off this news.

    Also, when looking at the other end of the capital structure, OCN bonds are trading at 92. The last time the OCN bonds traded at 92, the stock price was about $20.

    Long OCN
    Apr 30, 2015. 05:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Comcast dropping TWC merger plans [View news story]
    Not in today's "new" market. Why should any US stock go down anymore?
    Apr 23, 2015. 03:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix beats by $0.08, revenue in-line [View news story]
    Wait, I don't remember Schloss recommending people look at habitually negative FCF as buying opportunities.
    Apr 15, 2015. 07:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 19% ride for J.C. Penney in front of Easter [View news story]
    Its about time.

    Oh, and sure glad Macy's shares have appreciated up this week because of JCP. Didn't they guide lower for the year? What's positive for JCP MUST be positive for M. That's the algo correlation trade at the moment.

    Long JCP
    Apr 2, 2015. 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Piper Jaffray sees a big run for J.C. Penney [View news story]
    I have no faith in proper price discovery in this market (goes for all markets and not just equities) at the moment.

    The ones that disagree with my above statement are the same who own overvalued Blue-chip companies, or ones who own the heaviest weighted stocks in the QQQ or SPY. (Aka, the ones the central banks are buying in the open market)

    Long JCP
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GenSpera Contends In The Prodrug Space, Reaching Phase 3 [View article]
    To say this company trades at a discount is an understatement. Comps would be $200-300mil if the data was average, but with the current data from Phase II warrants at least $500-700mil market cap. I haven't seen this kind of data from any Phase II pharma company.

    I attribute most of the valuation divergence to being OTC still which is unfortunate.

    Long GNSZ
    Mar 30, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings: The End Game [View article]
    There are two people that own most of the common and debt, Eddie (the CEO of SHLD) and Bruce Berkowitz (through FAIRX and FOCIX Funds). They won't be forcing SHLD into Ch. 11 since they are the ones approving the strategy. Bruce only benefits by this strategy increasing the share price and/or the debt being paid off at par; therefore, he is aligned with the average person.

    On another note, I find SHLD to be a peculiar stock to sell short. There's so little float relative to outstanding shares, and so much of the float is already short. One's only hope is that the real estate is worth very little AND Eddie's execution is a complete flop. A good short opportunity isn't just a company that's overvalued, but it has to be overvalued AND the management needs to be misrepresenting the financials (e.g. MBIA and ARCC)

    Long SHLD, SHLD senior secured, FAIRX and FOCIX.
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Howard Marks riffs on liquidity in this month's memo [View news story]
    Marks' memo is spot on yet again. Seth Klarman has been saying the same thing about etf's for years. Good luck to all of those who use them.

    Additionally, I highly recommend everyone subscribe to Marks' memos. His insight is immeasurable.
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockhart expects higher rates no later than September [View news story]
    These Fed presidents need to stop posturing. They're hallucinating if they think the data, on any legit measure, is good so far this year.

    If they raise rates, that action will be the catalyst for another financial recession.
    Mar 25, 2015. 11:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocwen Financial: United Capital Markets Writes Letter To Moody's Investor Service [View article]
    Thank you for sharing. I agree with your summary points.

    Long OCN
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Sears Holdings' Q4 [View news story]
    GAAP accounting requires firms to put land on the balance sheet at the cost of acquisition. They can't mark-to-market land value on balance sheets.
    Mar 19, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore, Paragon most at risk from Pemex, analyst says [View news story]
    So what does this have to do with NE being hammered along with everyone else who, on average, has a worse capital structure, less cash flow, more risk for contracts being terminated, and more capital spending pending? Oh, that's right, nothing. Just a lot of conjecture the past 6 weeks in regards to drillers not heavilty associated with Pemex.

    No person (or computer program) acutally allocates capital to companies that derserve, or earn it, anymore. They just buy and sell sectors nowadays based on charts or momentum. Our capital allocation system, aka "the market", is so perverse now. I don't blame retail investor for thinking the markets are "rigged."

    Long NE
    Mar 11, 2015. 04:22 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings: REIT Plans Suggest Sum Of Parts Value Is Heading Towards Zero [View article]
    I appreciate a dissenting opinion as I don't mind my beliefs to be challenged, but I could barely finish reading your opinion piece. It seems as though the headline was created to get clicks as even the most bearish "analyst" doesn't share your conclusion.

    Additionally, I have great respect and admiration for Bruce Berkowitz. He has always run a concentrated portfolio of only his best ideas. I understand that all great investors succumb to poor selections at times, but I do not believe SHLD is one of them for Bruce. He is a major stakeholder between the common and debt within FAIRX and FOCIX.

    Lastly, on technicals alone, I find it misguided to short a stock that has so little float relative to outstanding shares and that already has such a high % of interest short the float.

    Long SHLD common and senior secured bonds
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Sears Holdings' Q4 [View news story]
    Eddie is finally monetizing their assets (land) and can't wait to see the REIT formed. I got a chuckle that the earnings call was prerecorded. I surmise that it was because management was tired of retail analysts ignoring their balance sheet. No analyst opinion matters on SHLD anymore as we all know their efforts aren't going into the retail side of the business.

    Long SHLD common and bonds
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly book value up 1.8% in Q4, selling at 18.7% discount [View news story]
    Agency and Non-Agency REITS typically traded at par, or premiums to, NAV for years. That all changed in May of 2013 when rates jumped. Now, those same REITS trade at a discount of 10% to NAV at the very least (AGNC, TWO, PMT, NLY, etc)

    Since Summer of 2013, the "market" loves throwing out either the "but dividends will be cut" or "but book value isn't going up" headlines to justify continual illogical discounts to NAV for these major REITS.

    Long AGNC, TWO, CIM, PMT and NLY.
    Feb 24, 2015. 04:39 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
58 Comments
171 Likes