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OptionManiac

OptionManiac
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  • The emerging consensus: The U.S. economy is already so bad that it reduces the likelihood of a double-dip - and increases the chances of a stock market jump off levels that have priced in another decline.  [View news story]
    I hope this is all wrong. The SA pessimists have convinced me to hold on to my cash and wait for the big drop.
    Sep 2, 2010. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Lesson From the Great Depression: Fiscal Policy Works [View article]
    We have to do what works with any given problem (as long as we don't use a people as a scapegoat). Ideology be damned!! Isn't this how we solve problems at work? I don't say, "I'm a socialist so we are not going to run the plant in this fashion!" I say "Let's sit down and look at the best ideas, we should come up with a good system, if it doesn't work out quite right, we can tweak it."
    Sep 1, 2010. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Lesson From the Great Depression: Fiscal Policy Works [View article]
    I was just at my parents house - my mother showed me a vase that my father bought in Japan during the Korean War. She thought it might be valuble. I flipped it over and read the words "Made In America". My dad said "Everything over there was made here".
    Sep 1, 2010. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • August auto sales in the U.S. look like they'll hit a 28-year low as new worries about an economic slowdown - and joblessness - trump model-year closeouts. On average, analysts expect an annualized 11.6M vehicles, 18% below last year's total (boosted by cash-for-clunkers).  [View news story]
    Auto incentives are down an average $1000 per car, auto makers have grown lean and mean enough so that they are happier with the bigger margin than bigger sales. Let's see what auto profits are next quarter.
    Aug 31, 2010. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil stocks are lower, but Noble Energy (NBL +3.6%) shares surge after a weekend report that the company's Leviathan project under the Mediterranean Sea off Israel may contain 4.3B barrels of oil. If the Leviathan find pans out, it could produce enough oil to sustain Israel for at least 20 years.  [View news story]
    Yeah, we do gobble it up, don't we.
    Aug 31, 2010. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jul. Personal Income and Outlays Income: +0.2% in-line with expected, vs. 0% prior. Personal spending +0.4% in-line with expected, 0% prior. PCE core price index +0.1% in-line with expected, 0% prior.  [View news story]
    Heck, when isn't there a clearance sale anymore?
    Aug 30, 2010. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The USDA expects unusually tame food-price inflation this year, despite broad gains in agricultural commodity prices, and sees food-CPI gains of 0.5%-1.5% this year vs. last month's forecast of 1.5%-2.5%. Just to put that in perspective, every percentage point change is equal to around $12B in annual spending.   [View news story]
    It's called marketing.
    Aug 27, 2010. 06:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The USDA expects unusually tame food-price inflation this year, despite broad gains in agricultural commodity prices, and sees food-CPI gains of 0.5%-1.5% this year vs. last month's forecast of 1.5%-2.5%. Just to put that in perspective, every percentage point change is equal to around $12B in annual spending.   [View news story]
    It all depends on where you live. When you live in an area where there is lots of competition among grocery stores, prices are kept down. Granted, I eat just basic foods and I don't eat crap, but I have not seen any increase in prices. We are at the tail end of summer, so vegetable and fruit prices are somewhat deflated. I have not seen any increase in chicken, beef or fish, but you can get these items on sale any week from one store or another.
    Aug 26, 2010. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As card holders continue to pay off balances, the amount of credit card debt dipped to its lowest level in eight years in Q2, falling to $4,951 from $5,719 a year ago.  [View news story]
    Thanks for the link. Just part of the necessary deleverging of America. Everyone has to lose a little. (Hopefully not a lot)
    Aug 25, 2010. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. manufacturing employment has been declining longer than you think - for more than 50 years, predating the end of Bretton Woods, deregulation, Japanese dominance and China's surge. Yet output has grown steadily; the story is technology, Ryan Avent says, and not China's export subsidies.  [View news story]
    Yes, birth control and spaceships did come to my mind first, but figured those ideas wouldn't get me the Nobel.
    Aug 24, 2010. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talk of mortgage reform has started percolating in Washington, but data for sales on existing and new homes later this week are likely to reinforce the notion that the market is still far too weak for radical surgery and that the era of building wealth through one's home is over.  [View news story]
    I don't get this building wealth. So your house is now worth double what you paid for it. Sell it and live in an igloo? Or buy a run down shack in the middle of no-where. As said above, a house is a home.
    Aug 23, 2010. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The recent rally in Treasurys really does look like the dot-com bubble, according to this chart.  [View news story]
    You can't compare an investment vehicle with companies that had no bricks or mortar. Very pointless.
    Aug 18, 2010. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get out of Treasurys while there's still time, Marc Faber warns, as he's counting on inflation to eventually ramp up. "Whenever food prices go up, and grains have been very strong recently, with the sum delay, you get inflationary pressures," he tells CNBC. Faber cites a weakening dollar as a second reason to decrease holdings in U.S. debt.  [View news story]
    Hasn't anyone looked at what the prices for fertilizer companies were a few years ago? We've already spiked.
    Aug 18, 2010. 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get out of Treasurys while there's still time, Marc Faber warns, as he's counting on inflation to eventually ramp up. "Whenever food prices go up, and grains have been very strong recently, with the sum delay, you get inflationary pressures," he tells CNBC. Faber cites a weakening dollar as a second reason to decrease holdings in U.S. debt.  [View news story]
    Unfortunately, if we all ate right and drank just water with lunch or dinner, the economy would really go into a tailspin. The multi-billion dollar junkfood industry has also spawned the multi-billion dollar diet industry.
    Aug 18, 2010. 07:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get out of Treasurys while there's still time, Marc Faber warns, as he's counting on inflation to eventually ramp up. "Whenever food prices go up, and grains have been very strong recently, with the sum delay, you get inflationary pressures," he tells CNBC. Faber cites a weakening dollar as a second reason to decrease holdings in U.S. debt.  [View news story]
    I'm paying $1.80 per gallon of Hi Fructose Corn Syrup, last year $2.30. Apple juice spiked at $1.90 a gallon two years ago, back down to $1.00 per gallon. As for my home buying, my produce hasn't gone up much at all - chicken breasts - deboned and skinless - still $2/lb. Steelhead trout - $5.99 a pound or less on sale. Just wait for strip steak to go on sale - $5.99 per pound. Salad (when I don't pick my own) has been stuck at 2.50 a bag on sale forever. I just don't eat junk, maybe that's the answer.
    Aug 17, 2010. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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