Runforthehills

China Enters a Bear Market - Preview for U.S. Stocks?

"Many of the listed companies numbers are COOKED. Auditors and their management can be bribed and extorted. It's beyond me how anyone would trust Chinese companies' financials unless audited by Big 4. And even Big 4s audited numbers are suspect since most Chinese companies carry multiple books including one for taxation and another with slush funds and hidden losses"

It's amazing to me how when we look past our own noses we see things in a critical way. There is no doubt that corruption and manipulation exists in densely populated developing countries.

What's the Western excuse for not seeing what's under our own noses and why do we prefer not to see it and ignore it completely?

Initial Jobless Claims: 550K, down 38K from a week ago (revised), and better than the 575K consensus. Continuing claims rose 69K to 6.31M.

Until the next revision. What a load of BS.

Should we be running for the exits? Mark Hulbert notes corporate insiders are at their most bearish in nearly two years, selling their companies' shares at a faster pace at any time since the top of the bull.

I just do not understand why most people cannot see this over the last couple of weeks of earnings ? Sure the majority have beaten low estimates by mere pennies but revenues are significantly down across the board. Yet the market goes parabolic during the same time frame. How much of the volume is NOT prop trades by GS, MS, C or BoA? Like others on SA, I was out in May and will give up the missed gains for capital protection. You can only fill so much water into a sink and eventually you will have to pull the plug and re-fill it with fresh water. How dirty is the water getting?


On Jul 28 10:11 AM coloneldebugger wrote:

> yep, whole lotta accounting hyjinx going on

Tyler Durden stays on the high-frequency trading case and says that when Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and CIT Group (CIT) combined make up 10% of all equity volume, it's called churn.

I don't know what they called it in the 1930's without computers but now with GS, BAC, GS and C's trading programs going full tilt to prop the market you might as well call it Churn & Burn.


On Jul 22 12:48 PM Archman Investor wrote:

> It is becoming very clear what has happened and what is going on.
>
>
> The average american lost most of their money over the past 16 months.
> Not just some money, but a lot of money. Their portfolios in most
> cases are back to 1998 levels, and for many who tried to catch the
> falling knives of the financial stocks (thanks to CNBC calling multiple
> bottoms and those like Dennis Kneale calling people "fraidy cats"
> for not buying financials before they plunged 80%) their net worth
> is completely gone.
>
> There is truly a level of fear, hatred and disgust for the stock
> market now. The average american either has no money left to invest
> or just does not trust the market anymore. This scenario is similar
> to the 1930's.
>
> However.
>
> Unlike the 1930's todays market is much different. In todays market
> you have the likes of GS, C, BAC, MS, et al, constantly trading the
> market using tax payer money for their own gain. If this was the
> 1930's again, stocks would not be going up. We would be forming a
> very long flat base at the very least, somewhere around S &P
> 700 as the recession ran its course. This is what has normally happened
> in the past until people started liking stocks again. Do not be fooled.
> Average Americans do not like stocks again. Not at all. This market
> has been going up for purely phony reasons. Many many people know
> this and see this.
>
> However, because our glorious citizens seem to care more about their
> I-Phones than anything else, the IB's are allowed to get away with
> murder.
>
> That is why this market has gone up, and that is why as TD wrote
> in the article, you have this constant churn of computers doing the
> trading with our money, as the rest of the nation suffers.

Chinese stocks are on the run of a lifetime, up 81% so far this year, and down days have been few and far between. (Previously: BNP analysts predict a late July China crash.)

"You essentially cannot believe any data that's being released over there" Contrary to what you can believe over here in North America from GS, the Fed and the Government?


On Jul 22 02:42 PM klarsolo wrote:

> As interesting as the Chinese market is in the long run, I think
> the risks are considerable. You essentially cannot believe any data
> that's being released over there. Plus the political risk is completely
> uncalculatable.

A strong finish to an otherwise weak day allows major indexes to post only minor losses. DJIA -0.28% (-24.19) to 8,738.87. S&P -0.35% ( -3.29) to 939.14. Nasdaq -0.38% (-7.05) to 1,853.08. Crude +1.8% to $71.26. Gold +0.2% to $956.30.

When you say "Is this ulrashort etf's re-arranging their positions" Are you saying that this, in part, is what is controlling the last hour? What would be the advantages for them to do this?

I'm losing my patience with these blatant moves by ( fill in the blank )? to push the market towards their current positions.

The well positioned rich get richer, ah! capitalism at it's best, meanwhile the average Joe or Mary and their future generations will get to pay the bill as these same generations struggle, losing what they had built up over the past generations, to climb that huge mountain of ( fill in the blank) ahead of them.

Markets Are at a Crossroads

Could you please explain your comment! Do you mean that it will become clear that this rally has been unsubstantiated or clear that it is substantiated and will continue?


On Jun 10 12:18 PM j_remington wrote:

> A few more days or weeks and the picture will be clear

A messy 10-year T-note auction sends long-end Treasurys lower, with 30-year -1.13% and and 10-year -0.41%. Treasury had to pay 3.99% - the highest since August - on its $19B offering. (auction results (.pdf))

Why shouldn't the market be bearish on this news when all of the bad news over the last couple of months was seen as bullish? It makes perfect sense in a contrarian sort of way based on what has got us to where we are right now.


On Jun 10 01:40 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> big deal. 3.99% on a 10 yr is still very low. The market is crazy
> to be so bearish on this news.