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  • Callaway Continues To Reward Shareholders Even As Golf Is Down [View article]
    Very sad to say but golf is dying, and despite ELY's efforts to once again turn itself around, it will be a transient victory if any. Look at the golf retailer bankruptcies, look at the the news at DKS, look at Golf Galaxy, look at TV viewership, look at golf course bankruptcies (one every 48 hrs) and finally look at participation rates - rounds played per capita have been headed straight down for 15 yrs now.

    Have no idea why this is happening and it is sad - maybe some combination of too much time to play a round, too expensive, some societal shift, or the fact that the average participant gets worse and then quits, thanks to awful and misguided PGA instruction. It's too bad, but we are witnessing the twilight of this great game.
    Aug 20, 2014. 05:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm More Confident Of My Herbalife Short Position Today [View article]
    good luck. conviction is generally a function of either/or data gathering or stock performance. most believe data gathering and ability to trade the stock is perfectly correlated, yet it is not, it is moreso asymptotic, as information creates emotional walls, preventing one from making rational decisions. making money on a short is tough, trying to take a company down and make money that way is not impossible, but highly unlikely, as you have thousands of people working extremely hard against you... and HLF has deep pockets.
    Jul 22, 2014. 08:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Expanding LED Bulb Portfolio To Aid Cree's Growth [View article]
    And that is exactly the point I have been making. Tech companies have huge margins, makers of commodities don't, therefore they amass many products in order to brand, thus leveraging the retail model. So... they are in a pickle: spend money to get the brand awareness out there and to compete at retail, or not spend money, have a small niche with higher margins, and watch their business evaporate. Either way, they have checkmated themselves.
    Jun 24, 2014. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Expanding LED Bulb Portfolio To Aid Cree's Growth [View article]
    Good fact-based response. These articles and posts are the exact reason I am already tired of Seeking Alpha.
    Jun 24, 2014. 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Expanding LED Bulb Portfolio To Aid Cree's Growth [View article]
    This is no longer a technology play... they are making LIGHTBULBS. And instead of competing in the arena of technology, they are now competing in the arena of retail, an entirely different forum. The competitors??? GE, Philips, Siemens, Samsung... all of whom sell thousands of products at retail and therefore command shelf space. Whether they outsource to whoever doesn't matter. And good luck with CREE's "innovation". Having a better product at retail is no guarantee of success... it is more a function of size, brand, shelf space, distribution, retail relationships etc etc. Besides, again they make lightlbulbs, heading toward commoditization. You sound like a long who is drinking the koolaid. Sic Transit Gloria.
    Jun 23, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Expanding LED Bulb Portfolio To Aid Cree's Growth [View article]
    But whether they like it or not, they are now a consumer company, and they sell light bulbs. This means they revert to the margins of typical light bulb manufacturers. Do you think the big guys will cede the light bulb market to CREE? They are now a light bulb commodity, whether they want to admit it or not.. and competing against some of the most foremost tenacious competitors on the planet. Game is over for them unless they come up with some other "technology".
    Jun 22, 2014. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Expanding LED Bulb Portfolio To Aid Cree's Growth [View article]
    This is all very academic - CREE is no longer a tech company, they are a light bulb company. And now they are competing on a much tougher platform - retail against the likes of Philips, Siemans, GE et al. Getting shelf space with one product is tough and shelf space is the core driver of retail sales. Good luck.
    Jun 22, 2014. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    Good luck on the short - I would never short any stock/bond/future/ETF with a chart like that. The guys I know who short stocks that are going up, are all gone. The guys I know that are the best, the guys in the corner offices in Manhattan and London, never short stocks/ETFs that are going up.
    Jun 21, 2014. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    Sounds like you have looked over the history of the VIX and observed "opportunities". I have tested it - maybe you should as well. My point is that the VIX has zero predictive ability as it is simply the inverse of the S&P500 smoothed by a constant... and no derivative of price can predict price.

    If you see the opportunities, why not use this forum to record your trades, and let's see what happens.
    May 30, 2014. 02:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    The problem with the entire article is that the VIX has ZERO predictive ability, literally ZERO. It is a function of the price multiplied by a constant that is a derivative of price... and no derivative of price can predict price. Turn the VIX upside down, multiply it by the constant k, and what do you get? The S&P500!

    So it is nothing more than the S&P500 inverted, then smoothing the market increases by the constant. Therefore the "buying opportunities" are simply market swoons and "selling opportunities" were minor spikes. If you statistically test those as I have, you will see that those opportunities, if taken, were profitable significantly less than 50% of the time... and generally minor retracements in a major trend.
    May 30, 2014. 01:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JDS Uniphase +1.7% AH after announcing $100M buyback [View news story]
    hmmm, returns are better buying stock than employing that capital into the business??? that is an admission that things must be awful.
    May 28, 2014. 04:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Profit Is Slipping At Rackspace Hosting [View article]
    Bottom line is that Revenues continue to slow and the only reason they beat EPS was a one time decrease in both G&A and Depreciation, so without those two one-timers, they miss again. And yes they will get higher prices for their custom-cloud stuff vs the public cloud, but the entire cloud pricing schema is decreasing, so yes, higher prices than public, but pricing continues to come down.
    May 13, 2014. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Cree On The Drop [View article]
    This news on the stock buyback this morning is simply amazing. They are now effectively telling the Street that supporting their stock has a higher return on investment than the returns on invested capital of their core businesses. If business is so good, why would you ever invest any capital outside of the high returns on capital you are getting in your business. Ergo, this is an admittance that retuns are not that great... and maybe the Home Depot comment as to their relationship lapsing, was not wrong-worded, but just the truth. Commodity margins are around the corner given that this is now de facto a light bulb company.
    May 8, 2014. 09:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Cree On The Drop [View article]
    CREE is currently in the best position they will ever have in the LED market... and they still cannot get it done. The big guys are moving in and will change this market from one of "tech" to what it really is, a light bulb market. And this quote sort of blew it for me: "As incandescent lighting gets phased out, I expect LED to account for 75% of lighting sales by 2020." GE, Siemens, Philips et al are going to cede the light bulb market to CREE??? Actually, quite the opposite will occur. Sic Transit Gloria.
    Apr 23, 2014. 06:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keep Buying Cree [View article]
    Apr 22, 2014. 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment