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SkiDad

SkiDad
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  • Is The Strong U.S. Dollar Coming Again? [View article]
    we also have (compared to not having before) massive unprecedented QE in the non-US world. By default, the less-QE stance appreciates relative to the more-QE stance. Neither currency is strong absolutely, but rather relative to one another, the dollar can look good when in fact it has been inflated to a much lower intrinsic value in my opinion. as I write this, the yen is being inflated, relative to their balance sheet, greater than the US. try silver (SLW or SSRI or NUGT (my fav)) on a pullback to 11/2014 levels as the dollar resumes it's advance to DXY 110 by mid Summer. I believe the historical forces Han writes about will finally take over at some point this year with PMs up 20%+ by year's end.
    Apr 28, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Trap? [View article]
    These factors influence my opinion to devote a significant proportion of my portfolio to negative beta (hedge) investments:
    1. market p/e of 17 or greater. Although this pales in comparison to 2000, 2000's lessons learned could cause a bear market from lower p/e's.
    2. the reason we are at these highs is because of low interest rates and the only alpha available is through equities. This is a thin reason to buy.
    3. despite currency risk, QE in Europe portends a bull market there causing flight of investment capital from the US which of course requires currency hedging
    4. overall global demand stinks due to lower interest rates causing lower bank profits and tolerance for bad debt which tightens loan qualification requirements.
    5. April effect post 04/15 naturally buoys the market
    6. May brings more reality and usually is a downer
    7. Market breadth is weak. we rely on big caps too much
    8. despite apple's great earnings story yesterday, the NAS is negative today.
    9. Way too much time has passed since the last significant correction. November was a hic up.

    It's just a matter of time for a 10%, 20% or greater correction. Will it be a bear? Maybe.

    My advice: Buy the VIX. I like UVXY. Other thoughts?
    Apr 28, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. shale oil crash diet likely to bring forward lower production [View news story]
    Nobody's talking about the current record oil inventory.
    Feb 23, 2015. 01:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Gold's Spectacular Rally Continue? [View article]
    It's all about safe haven verses risk on. Watch the VIX, which after Draghi's comments retreated (down 8.5% now). The US indices rise and the dollar rise because the dollar is also a safe haven asset. I agree there will be a knee jerk upward in GLD because of simple human hysteria, accelerated by program trading. This however seems to be muted today, which is very significant. How is GLD going to be accelerated upward tomorrow or in the near term? Thankyou for supporting my gold short (only near term).
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver: 11% Discount In Bullion Funds, But Don't Buy In The Next 8 Days [View article]
    Thanks for the timing strategy. Been waiting for gold to catch up with the rising dollar and tanking oil. I'm short gold now (talk about non-possession!). I do agree 1050 to 1100 support and no lower because of the strong support through December in the face of a rising dollar. I want to sell my short and go long on a 3x non-possession rocket like NUGT and make a profit. Dollars are good to own at least until they stop being the World's reserve currency. Otherwise we'd be worse off than the Russians. Also Russians could dump gold. Putin's not the sharpest knife in the shed though. He may capitulate and accelerate the fall you speak of. 90 to 95 GLD for turning point.
    Dec 23, 2014. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Gained On Capital Flows That Should Reverse [View article]
    Stocks capitulated today but bounced back and gold acted like it hit resistance while silver advanced. Art Cashdin echoed what you said about the seasonality of December and also sees equities advancing in a Santa Claus rally. As far as Greece is concerned, they are a flyspec compared to the US economy, Europe and the dollar/euro balance. The dollar trend is the 90 trillion pound gorilla here. Where the World can resolve that US strength will not be undermined by World demand destruction, gold will fall first to 1,140. I believe you are right.
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning Lights: To See Or Not To See Volatility [View article]
    I could not put this into words. You have done a splendid job. It does give us a short / medium term arbitrage against the hopium-hedgefund-driven market. I follow the VIX but very nervous about the 2 mile view. This perspective is much more useful than worrying over black swans or short term horizons.
    Nov 15, 2014. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD Has Broken Down, Now What? [View article]
    I think dollar demand has a lot of influence over gold demand, and not visa versa. For example, were the DXY to retrace to 80 or below, I believe there would be a disproportionate and emotional spike in PMs. I think the dollar is the canary in the gold mine. Right now the dollar is king because of Merkel's lack of insight to implement QE and the Japanese QE just recently undertaken. There is, however an upper limit to the DXY I believe. Watch the factors influencing that as your inflection point for gold, not GLD. Gold price is just the symptom of the underlying causes of dollar strength. The causes of dollar strength include military interventions, successes in military, influence in foreign trade, sanctions imposed, countries controlled, US financial success and trade and global risk abatement in general. When I see the collection of these influences reach a tipping point, in my opinion, I will begin averaging into both the etf's and physical metal, but only used as a hedge against global risk, not as a core investment strategy. I'd be interested in how others think about this perspective.
    Nov 6, 2014. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The FOMC Pushes Down GLD [View article]
    This does not factor in currency risk. Without Simpson - Boles, the US deficit will surpass $20b according to Alan Simpson this morning. If the republicans win the senate, it will still take time for them to argue with obama. The US dollar is saved by it's reserve currency status (we can print like mad) that is protected now by a rising dollar due mostly to the Germans avoiding QE but now the Japanese embracing it. we went off the gold standard in 1974 and the petro dollar was formed in a pact with the Saudis that kept oil denominated in dollars. This is continuing but there are movements afoot sponsored by Russia, china and hostile arab states. I believe that where other nations become stronger economically in the next couple of years, the use of the dollar as a reserve currency could diminish somewhat, causing gold to rise. before then, I do believe we will see $1,000, but not as low as $800 because at $1,150 to $1,200, we are at a production breakeven presently. This is further supported by Russia, india and china buying more gold and England repatriating their measley 100 tons or so from Ft. Knox. Watch the miners' earnings as the canary in the coalmine for a bottom.
    Nov 1, 2014. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Wheaton Plummet Further? [View article]
    The EUR is trending up against the dollar despite a weak EU response to the earlier crisis, setting the stage for another in 2014? 2015? No one, esp Germany wants to take the hit. Bernake keeping dollar up with faux "taper" and potential EUR demise spell lower near term PM price. Add to that Indian govt recent actions. China will still hoard and pay with dollars that will eventually not be worth as much, but for now, near term spike in dollar. Near term demise in PMs. Average down people but give it some months to develop. SLW will show a bottoming pattern eventually.
    Dec 24, 2013. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capacity Discrepancies At Lihua International [View article]
    I would be very interested in your position (short) regarding liwa and especially those you advise and receive compensation from.

    What about you Mr. Chapski? Do you even dare answer that question? I'll bet not. Let this message be a testiment to that.
    May 29, 2013. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microscope On Alleged 'Missing Loans' At Lihua International [View article]
    Chapski, you are a liar!!!!!!!!!!! Collectively, your argument is bunk and you hide behind all the little details hoping retail investors will trust you yet again. You have lied before. OK, I guess you could call it being wrong. But either way, you are a fool and an exposed manipulator. Please publish more of this crap so I can buy more shares.
    Jan 11, 2012. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Need to Worry More About Household Debt, Less About Banks [View article]
    Well, do you suppose that Ben Bernake's obsession with the great depression could have possibly caused him to myopically interpret a solution? Perhaps. I applaud your focus on the household. It is very palpable for many people. It is also where the recovery must come from, not the banks. Do you think Bernake has been blind or even ignorant about the virtual destruction of lending demand? Special recognition goes to you Cullen for bringing this out in 2008!!!
    May 19, 2011. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner: There Will Be Another Storm [View article]
    Great points and in case you missed it, on monday, Geitner's interview on the news demonstrates a considerable amount of body english suggesting significant unease with extending the debt limit. I find that very significant. Despite the fact that since 1940, we have successfully negotiated 80 budgets with our 2 party system (our = we), it is woefully inefficient, special interest infected and anathema to efficient management of anything, much less a multi-trillion dollar government. Of course if we had a leader like Reagan (look for Chris Christie nomination), we would have leadership. I think leadership is the key. Until then, I look for further erosion in commodities from demand destruction, a lower dollar and 1180 in the S&P consistent with QE2 ending. This could be a milestone however on the way down. The premise here is that leadership is a requirement, not a luxury.
    May 19, 2011. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Lihua International Cooking its Books? Part I [View instapost]
    What is your take on LIWA now that they are SOX compliant and with an audited 10K with implemented audit controls by Deloitte?
    Mar 23, 2011. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
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