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haschultz

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  • Tech Earnings Parade Begins Next Week: Here's What You Need To Know [View article]
    Thanks for the summary.

    I prefer to look at PEG's rather than just the G and certainly not just the P/E.

    I have been big in the RF space with SWKS and then sold my TQNT and RFMD in late December 2014 rather than deal with the merger as I also had sold Puts on them. But, this has been a great space.......and one people should have seen coming as 3G RF content was just under $1/phone but LTE was around $8/phone. Those who knew this back in late 2013 or early 2014 did very well.
    Jan 23, 2015. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB Just Kicked Ronald In The McNuggets [View article]
    I think the larger than expected European QE surprised many but why didn't McDonalds see this coming and take appropriate currency hedging action....unless that was going to cost more than the actual currency translation.

    I would not accept that "McDonald's doesn't hedge for currencies" as that is a copout when this was known.

    I also think the dollar is nearly as strong as it is going to be....and deferring the first interest rate hike beyond June or so may affect the dollar's relative strength....as might any economic slowdown due to the stronger dollar and weaker Loonie and EU.

    But, what about all the other problems of McDonalds that are not currency related? Personally, I like BK and then Carl's over McDonalds and would even eat Taco Bell over McDonalds until they flame broil their hamburgers.
    Jan 23, 2015. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Christmas All Over Again For Himax Technologies. [View article]
    Hey Papa of Four,

    Good follow-up article and I agree that the real gains in HIMX are in the future....but now is the time to start positioning yourself and your portfolio.

    I also found the below article stating much of what you have been writing in your last two articles on HIMX:

    http://bit.ly/1zE4Qaf
    Jan 23, 2015. 03:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Skyworks Solutions' Q1 Earnings Offer Good News For Investors [View article]
    But, what to do with the profits if you want them invested? Certainly classic allocation models would say to diversify but what other stocks have this lower valuation and great potential????
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Aboard The Money Train: Himax Technologies [View article]
    Hey MeisterG,

    Thanks for all your insightful comments to Paps's well timed article. Thanks also for the insight on HIMX supplying the Touch controllers (TDDI's) in Microsoft's Lumia 535 as that phone could become a higher volume seller in India and perhaps SE Asia......and later bridge the way to increased sales of Microsoft phones in the USA with Windows 10.

    The Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella, has really juiced MSFT and it is good to see him in the chair and Balmer gone. I like the announcement that Windows 10 will be free to registered users of Windows 7 and 8 as that could entice them to then buy the Windows phone and even get corporations to move toward the Microsoft phones.

    As per your comment "Should see some head counts scale up to handle increased production" is already occurring as per the 4Q 2014 guidance given in November with the 3Q 2014 conference call and why EPS is what it is with the higher revenues. See this from the transcript (here at SA but also at HIMX website):

    "The increase was related to higher salary expenses caused by additional engineering headcount and annual salary raises and more new project tape-outs. This is in line with the repeated indications we made earlier that we intended to expand our R&D team to capture the increasing business opportunities."

    Now, I know you specifically mentioned "to handle production" and that only relates to LCoS as HIMX is otherwise fabless.

    Yes, 2015 will be exciting but mostly timing and news related. 2016 will be when HIMX really sees the increased revenue and earnings. Accordingly, I would recommend all price the Jan 2016 Options. I sold a bunch of the Jan 2016 $12 Puts which are still bidding around $5/share so that is good cash if the shares are higher than $12 in Jan 2016 or a lower price-point vs. buying the shares at the market today. While I own some shares, I also sold June 2015 7 and $8 Puts on weakness last Friday suspecting most of the weakness was option related (and the June shares would be Put to me just prior to the dividend).

    Anyway, great article by Papa of Four, good timing and insightful discussion.
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All Aboard The Money Train: Himax Technologies [View article]
    Hey Papa of Four,

    What are the chances that these sorts of things, especially Microsoft's Hololens, include more than just HIMX's LCoS displays?

    It would seem that there is a good chance these could also include touch/gesture controllers along with perhaps Wafer Level Optics as HIMX did state in the recent PR on 4Q 2014 update:

    "On a side note, on top of solid core businesses, Himax is experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."
    Jan 22, 2015. 01:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft shows off holographic headset, new browser, universal apps [View news story]
    Somebody contact Jay Srivatsa with Chardan who claims HIMX is a $5 stock. While he has been wrong on revenue and EPS in the past, Barron's Asia keeps quoting him. And, I have heard that he has also not attended any of the HIMX Investor's Conference over the past 18+ months.....but keeps insisting he knows better and $5 is his price target.

    Hey Jay, what say you? HIMX has been saying they are:

    "experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."
    Jan 21, 2015. 02:45 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Aboard The Money Train: Himax Technologies [View article]
    Hey Illuminati Investments,

    Go the HIMX website and review their Investor's presentation. There, you will see the various products and then customers by product type. You will also see their acknowledged growth opportunities.

    From this, you will see that they are not likely a "value trap that's one missed expected contract away from drastically declining earnings". In fact, their customer list is so diversified that things like Google Glass consumer sales being stopped for a bit could/can easily be replaced by another company replacing that product/space.

    HIMX is as well diversified as any company I have followed. They have the larger manufacturers like Samsung and Foxxconn but also the second tier and China 'whitebox' manufacturers. In fact, keep in mind that HIMX has stated:

    "On a side note, on top of solid core businesses, Himax is experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."

    In fact, I encourage all to go view this as it is very enlightening and gives one a much better appreciation for HIMX, their products, their customers and their growth opportunities.
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:40 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Aboard The Money Train: Himax Technologies [View article]
    Hey Papa of Four,

    Good article concerning HIMX. I did not really see a bear case for HIMX other than Google's Glass display which doesn't really seem to be in the revenue/EPS forecasts anyway. Google is also confused which Glass market they are after; Corporate, Government (police/military) or consumer as they are not all the same. I prefer corporate as there is a tangible return on investment there....and corporate use will allow users to get comfortable with Glass as it then finds traction in the fickle consumer market.

    But, even without Google, HIMX is associated with other Glass and wearable manufacturers which help explain their comments about LCoS and WLO being stronger.

    What is also being missed is that revenues are actually up although EPS is not following revenues up due to higher head counts which HIMX explained as necessary to grow new products (and work with those larger customers). So, the higher revenues are a plus which will eventually 'bleed through' to earnings on the items you discuss. If you look at Yahoo's Earnings Estimates, you will see a smaller increase in EPS than the 18.5% increase in expected revenue.

    While the HIMX pre-announcement was for a slight beat, it is also a meaningful beat to those like Chardan's Jay Srivatsa who was again expecting a shortfall in revenue.

    I also note that the short volume on HIMX has been going up and down by nearly 1 million shares in the first half of Dec 2014 (increased over 850,000 shares) and then the second half of Dec 2014 (dropped by over 850,000 shares). I think someone(s) have found a way to profit from 'induced' volatility in HIMX. And, this seems to be the case this week as someone was selling into the bullish pre-announcement news and the share count was higher than usual. I will venture that the short count for the first half of Jan 2015 will be higher than end Dec 2014.

    Finally, for those who are bullish, there is great value in selling Puts for either June (just before the dividend) and even Jan 2016. The Puts can give you either a healthy option premium (if shares are above the strike price) or cheaper than current market price (if the shares are below the strike price).

    Either way, I am bullish on HIMX although I think we will see the larger increases in share price around May 2016 (when HIMX reports 1Q 2015 & gives 2Q 2015 guidance) and the in the second half of the year. Most of my exposure to HIMX is via Jan 2016 $12 Puts sold some time back. I will probably buy shares in advance of the dividend on weakness.

    Thanks again for a good article covering many of the positives of HIMX. CMOS, larger panel drivers, small panel drivers and non-drivers have all been good growth areas for HIMX.

    Question for those reading this far: What currencies does HIMX get most of their revenue in? I suspect it is China, Korea and Taiwan currencies so they impact of the dollar will not be as severe as if it were the Euro.
    Jan 18, 2015. 07:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Micron Remains A Buy [View article]
    Selling Jan 2016 Puts (bullish trade) is a viable and low cost/risk way to play MU. I think the value on selling these Puts is preferred to buying the shares at this price. Picking the proper strike price is the real variable and depends upon whether you just want the premium of the shares.

    I sold 250 Jan 2016 $27 Puts quite some ago at $5.50 and fully expect these to expire worthless. I may add to that position although at a higher strike price.
    Jan 9, 2015. 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts Have Mixed Ratings For Skyworks Solutions [View article]
    What am I missing here?

    If the P/E stays constant and the EPS grows at even a lower 25%, then the stock price has to appreciate by 25% or the P/E drops.

    And, at a P/E less than 25, a 25% growth means the PEG stays under 1.0

    I am fine with a 25% share price appreciation............. my investment in SWKS is mostly Puts sold at $50 and $60 so I am sitting nicely letting the Puts expire worthless.
    Jan 2, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My K.I.S.S. Dividend Portfolio: 4th Quarter 2014 Update And Year-End Review [View article]
    I echo the others here and thank you for the insightful and informative article.

    Now, in an effort to expand knowledge, I would be interested in your comments on the below questions/comments:

    + How do you do your asset allocation; i.e. how much to allocate to any individual stock?

    + Related to above question, do you limit the number of stocks you are invested in at any one time? Sometimes too many stocks are hard to follow although it seems you don't really need to track them closely or often. Many advisors say to limit yourself to ~30 stocks (own 30 but that also means probably following more than that for potential sell and replace candidates)

    + You do sound a bit cavalier about the share price dropping as with your comment on energy stocks in the article and then your mention of not selling what you term 'overvalued stocks' in a discussion above. This would seem to be where my time would be spent......ensuring that the valuations are proper and culling those with problems (could have quickly sold energy upon first drops and certainly follow P/E to Growth or something to sell over-valued stocks)

    + Related to above question, do you really want to wait for a dividend cut to sell some of the energy names as the drop in price would certainly seem to indicate some companies will either have to cut their dividend or violate your 60% payout ratio.

    Thanks in advance and I would love to buy you a drink to disucss further as you do present your case well and I can learn a bit from it..........but with some personal refinement. Maybe my questions/refinements would create a lot of extra work and thus violate your KISS principle.
    Jan 1, 2015. 11:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Is Seriously Going Higher [View article]
    Very fair and comprehensive article. I will research SIRI further...........incl... asking my friends and family about their use. I prefer audio books and rarely use SIRI..........even when it is provided in rental cars.

    Does SIRI have various audio book channels? Should they?
    Dec 31, 2014. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Activision Blizzard Is Absolutely A Buy [View article]
    3D headsets will be a big part of the future as they will wow gamers and add a whole new dimension to the games.

    Add motion detection to 3D gaming and then you have the real future.

    Right now consoles are the closest as they already have motion detection. Then, it is simply software upgrades and a 3D headset (Oculus, Sony, Microsoft, etc. all working on these) and consoles are set.

    PC's have the processing potential and would be my favorite but they lack both the motion detection add-ons along with 3D.

    While I think Activision will be a winner in this space as they can really port their software to any platform, I am also watching the hardware side of this.
    Dec 18, 2014. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating Your Own Metrics To Determine Market Direction [View article]
    Just in case y'll haven't seen this Credit Suisse report and estimates following HIMX presentation at their early Dec 2014 Investor's Conference.

    http://bit.ly/12D8aUc

    I am also planning an investment in SIMO as they will report good 4Q 2014 earnings and have really nice comparisons coming up in 2015. I may also sell Puts in SIMO as a way to buy in lower or get money for just selling them with lower risk.
    Dec 13, 2014. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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