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  • Himax Technologies: A Top Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality Play [View article]
    Very well written article on the AR/VR potential of HIMX. Potential investors should use your links and read the past two conference call transcripts and review the Investor's Presentation at the HIMX site as there is still much more to HIMX than covered in this article focused primarily on AR/VR.

    Good comments also with additional links.

    My only real comments are:

    + AR could be the bigger market for HIMX due to the need for the special display(s).

    + Some of the VR devices use smartphones and Google sells a very inexpensive kit for mounting your smartphone on your head.

    + Google Glass 1 used a single display but I think the better VR displays wiil include two displays for improved depth, 3D, entertainment use, possible use as VR, etc.

    + Several police departments (USA and UAE on record) have tested and found great benefit from Google Glass 1 as these are superior to the dash mounted cameras as the focus on what the police officer is seeing and includes real time audio (to the video). These would also be connected and could do facial recognition and can scan the license plate and driver's license with the police officer simply 'looking' at (and thus scanning) them.

    + Several medical departments and even colleges have also tested and found value in Google Glass 1

    + Google Glass 2 will be much improved and would widen use/utility and these markets will also be targeted by the many VR hardware makers

    Again, thanks for the insightful article.....and for stimulating the various quality comments.
    Mar 11, 2015. 11:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Samsung: Resistance Is Futile! [View article]
    Really good article. My only quibble would be that you did not mention that this contract could impact the design, layout and equipping of the new plant Samsung has announced they are building.

    Having a contract with Apple (longer the better for Samsung and perhaps even Apple), does allow Samsung to run the economics of sizing their new fab plant.

    But, your conclusions are correct in how Samsung got the contract and that there is not a huge impact on Micron.

    The Jan 2016 $27 Puts are really attractively priced and selling those might be a good way to profit from Micron with minimal risk (breakeven price would be below $25 in Jan 2015 which I don't see happening).
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: 3D NAND Flash Duopolist? [View article]
    Hey Bobcat,

    Actually Seth Klarman reduced their MU position by more than 50%.....which might explain why it was weaker during that time period (especially during that Oct 2014 flash correction.

    From a Barron's article linked to MU Yahoo page:
    "Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group slashed its position in Micron Technology (MU) while it added to energy stocks such as Antero Resources (AR) and Cheniere Energy (LNG) in the most recent quarter, regulatory filings show.

    The Boston hedge fund manager and value-investing guru cut Micron by more than half to about 19.7 million shares ($689 million) in the final three months of last year, according to the firm’s 13F document filed late last week with regulators. That document shows that Baupost moved completely out of small stakes in Boyd Gaming (BYD) and AVEO Pharmaceuticals (AVEO)."
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tanker Tanks: Term Structure In Oil Screams 'Buy The Dip!' [View article]
    Hey Ingot,

    The W. VA. oil was from the Bakken in N.D so would have been in the Keystone pipeline if/when built. Instead, it was being transported in a CO2 spewing rail tanker car.

    Keystone will reduce a lot of CO2 emissions which is not being discussed as pipeline are more efficient and use electric pumps (with incremental power from natural gas). So, in addition to the increased safety of pipelines vs. rail/trucks, there is CO2 savings.

    So, why do the 'Greens' who supposedly want lower CO2 emissions oppose Keystone......and why does Obama threaten a veto? Don't they want reduced CO2 emissions?

    As for export of oil from Keystone....the oil being exported will have a chance to find a market in the USA at a lower net cost than those buying it for export as exporters have to pay additional transportation.

    There really is no logical reason to oppose Keystone. And, if Keystone is not built, then Canada will build a pipeline to one of their coasts (east to export to Europe or west to export to Asia). And, these exports will use CO2 spewing tankers which will pass other CO2 spewing tankers bringing oil to the USA.

    There is no logical reason to oppose Keystone......but the Greens and Obama are not logical and are going against their own interests. Liberal pretzel logic????
    Feb 17, 2015. 12:31 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Micron Through Intel At Half Price [View article]
    Thanks for the reply Russ and I agree...........but I needed to use something to use something and used Yahoo's posted PEG for both stocks. If you know of a better source, I would be interested to know.

    By the way, the PEG at Yahoo is supposed to be a 5 year average lookahead and not backward looking which the P/E certainly is. So, while the Elpida acquisition did create a one-time step in EPS, that step is now a foundation and will be there going forward.

    I would be interested in your comments on the rest of the data such as share count (favors MU although %EPS impact is moderated as MU is estimated to have higher EPS).

    I was just trying to point out the other factors at play to explain why the market has the relative valuations on options that are present in the market. Before I try to think the market is wrong, I try to understand the factors that may prove the market is correct.
    Feb 17, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: 3D NAND Flash Duopolist? [View article]
    Hey Bobcat9,

    Hate to disagree with an Arizona fan but.......I think asset allocation might have prevented Einhorn from adding much more MU in Oct 2014 as it is already a very larger percentage of his holdings.

    I am not saying I am right or that I know better.....only that MU is already 1/7th of his holdings as per public data.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: 3D NAND Flash Duopolist? [View article]
    Actually good discussion by both Phred & Seeker with both referencing actual presentations/statements.

    But, as for Seeker, an investor has to take some action or have their cash sit on the sidelines. So, one 'weighs' the data/information (presentations/stateme... comments/SA articles/SA comments, etc.) and then the risks and takes action (invests with/without hedges) and then watches and takes any follow-on/corrective actions.

    So, thanks to all but with what appears ahead with MU 3D memory and its lower P/E and PEG.

    The bottom line is that when everything is known, the risks are minimal....but so are the rewards for the most part (or replaced with other risks and rewards).
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Micron Through Intel At Half Price [View article]
    Hey H. Burce,

    Thanks for the follow on comments and I agree that there is more to MU and INTC than just splitting the proceeds/profits on memory; 3D and otherwise.

    Most often, I think the market has things about right.......until there is hard data such as revenue and earnings to consider. So, the differences in outstanding shares, P/E, PEG, % improvement in EPS, etc., etc. do help explain why INTC options are around half of that of MU.

    Thanks for bringing up the institutional ownership dynamics. I think both stocks will benefit from Windows 10 release and it would be great to have it in March as some are speculating. INTC also has a large effort, currently losing money, on mobile which differentiates these companies....as does MU's efforts to buy out some of the convertibles.

    I recall we exchanged comments on a few other articles also.
    Feb 16, 2015. 06:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: 3D NAND Flash Duopolist? [View article]
    Good article. MU would also be much lower except for the Barron's article: Micron: Jefferies Pounds the Table, Refutes Six Bear ‘Myths’

    http://on.barrons.com/...

    Below is what I posted on Russ Fisher's article as this news of shared profits needs to include the EPS, P/E and even potential P/E expansion via PEG of INTC and MU. Most of these favor MU........probably for reasons you well elaborate in your article.

    + INTC has 4.74 billion shares (4.4 times more than MU)
    + MU has 1.08 billion shares

    So, if INTC and MU share the profits equally, won't the incremental EPS be 4.4 times as great for MU as INTC???

    From a 2015 EPS standpoint at present:

    + INTC is estimated at $2.37
    + MU is estimated at 3.63 (albeit with a earlier ending Financial Year)

    From this aspect, the improvement in profits from the 3D memory would mean more to INTC (as a percentage improvement for what is not already in the estimates).....BEFORE considering the impact on the number of outstanding shares. As such, this moderates the 4.4 times as many shares INTC has vs. MU....but just a bit.

    Finally, I think P/E needs to be considered as an incremental bit of EPS means more at a higher P/E than a lower P/E.

    + INTC forward P/E is 13.22 (PEG 1.61)
    + MU P/E is 7.62 (PEG is 0.58)

    So, this means that incremental earnings, at the current P/E, would mean more to INTC. But, from a potential for P/E expansion, MU has a much lower PEG.

    Net, I still think this benefits MU more than INTC due to the much lower share count and thus higher EPS from any shared profits and that MU has the lower PEG and thus great potential for P/E expansion. So, this moderates the bit about INTC being the better option play for 3D Memory profits.
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:54 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Micron Through Intel At Half Price [View article]
    Good and insightful article as always............but.... financial analyses seems a bit simplistic as it doesn't include:

    + INTC has 4.74 billion shares (4.4 times more than MU)
    + MU has 1.08 billion shares

    So, if INTC and MU share the profits equally, won't the incremental EPS be 4.4 times as great for MU as INTC???

    From a 2015 EPS standpoint at present:

    + INTC is estimated at $2.37
    + MU is estimated at 3.63 (albeit with a earlier ending Financial Year)

    From this aspect, the improvement in profits from the 3D memory would mean more to INTC (as a percentage improvement for what is not already in the estimates).....BEFORE considering the impact on the number of outstanding shares. As such, this moderates the 4.4 times as many shares INTC has vs. MU....but just a bit.

    Finally, I think P/E needs to be considered as an incremental bit of EPS means more at a higher P/E than a lower P/E.

    + INTC forward P/E is 13.22 (PEG 1.61)
    + MU P/E is 7.62 (PEG is 0.58)

    So, this means that incremental earnings, at the current P/E, would mean more to INTC. But, from a potential for P/E expansion, MU has a much lower PEG.

    Net, I still think this benefits MU more than INTC due to the much lower share count and thus higher EPS from any shared profits and that MU has the lower PEG and thus great potential for P/E expansion. So, this moderates the bit about INTC being the better option play for 3D Memory profits.

    Maybe the market has already discounted this and has it mostly correct?????
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:37 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax Technologies EPS in-line, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Hey Papa,

    Did you read the parts about HIMX and chip integration?

    "Himax is extremely excited about technological advances in the latest pure in-cell technology where it is one of the pioneers in offering one-chip solutions integrating driver IC and touch panel controllers, or TDDI. Driven by top-tier TFT-LCD makers, the industry is moving towards pure in-cell panels, which is set to start mass production in the second half of this year. Himax is in partnership with essentially all of the leading panel manufacturers in pure in-cell touch for joint technological development and expect the market to see major launches of this new technology very soon"

    And, these discrete categories are growing well so the chip integration should be very well and widely received (including perhaps Apple on the TDDI).

    "The Company’s touch panel controller product line continued to experience significant growth in Q4 2014, increasing more than 40% sequentially. Himax exited 2014 with its touch controller sales more than doubling from the previous year. The Company expects this strong growth momentum to continue in 2015. On top of its rapidly growing market share in the discrete touch panel market segment, Himax is extremely excited about technological advances in the latest pure in-cell technology where it is one of the pioneers in offering one-chip solutions integrating driver IC and touch panel controllers, or TDDI. Driven by top-tier TFT-LCD makers, the industry is moving towards pure in-cell panels, which is set to start mass production in the second half of this year. Himax is in partnership with essentially all of the leading panel manufacturers in pure in-cell touch for joint technological development and expect the market to see major launches of this new technology very soon."

    "Himax is experiencing accelerating demand from panel manufacturers seeking IC vendors who can provide driver IC, TCON, Gamma OP, and PMIC as a total solution. Meanwhile, TCON is getting more and more technologically advanced, with high end models integrating sophisticated functions such as MEMC. This positions the Company very well in the 4K TV market and beyond. As the industry migrates to 8K TVs, which is already starting to take place in product development, the Company’s business and technology strength and integrated product solutions will be a significant differentiator against its competitors."

    "Himax also experienced growing market interest and deepening customer engagement in our LCOS and WLO businesses. As noted previously, the Company continues to work with several industry heavyweights in the LCOS and WLO business. These two technologies are being applied in some of their future products, ranging from head mounted displays to next generation mobile devices, and the Internet of Things. Himax is excited that LCOS and WLO should experience this inflection point in 2015."

    "Touch panel controllers, timing controllers, CMOS image sensors, and LCOS microdisplay ICs were the main contributors to the growth of the non-driver product segment in the quarter. Among non-driver products, touch controllers showed the strongest growth, nearly tripling from the same period of 2013, and growing more than 40% sequentially. CMOS Image sensor sales nearly doubled year over year."

    "Himax started small shipments of AMOLED driver IC to certain Chinese customers in Q4 2014. AMOLED is likely to be a future growth engine for its small panel driver IC business and Himax is collaborating with multiple customers both in Korea and China on AMOLED product development. It is worth mentioning that quite a few new AMOLED fabs are being built in China and the Company has the most comprehensive customer coverage there, although this will not bring in meaningful revenue contribution until later this year."

    So, after a bit slower and disappointing 1Q 2015 revenues, the back half of 2015 will really shape up well for HIMX and then really grow nicely in 2016 and 2017.
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax +4.6%; margin growth, 2015 outlook trump soft Q1 guidance [View news story]
    Hey CT,

    Did you read the parts about HIMX and chip integration?

    "Himax is extremely excited about technological advances in the latest pure in-cell technology where it is one of the pioneers in offering one-chip solutions integrating driver IC and touch panel controllers, or TDDI. Driven by top-tier TFT-LCD makers, the industry is moving towards pure in-cell panels, which is set to start mass production in the second half of this year. Himax is in partnership with essentially all of the leading panel manufacturers in pure in-cell touch for joint technological development and expect the market to see major launches of this new technology very soon"

    And, these discrete categories are growing well so the chip integration should be very well and widely received (including perhaps Apple on the TDDI).

    "The Company’s touch panel controller product line continued to experience significant growth in Q4 2014, increasing more than 40% sequentially. Himax exited 2014 with its touch controller sales more than doubling from the previous year. The Company expects this strong growth momentum to continue in 2015. On top of its rapidly growing market share in the discrete touch panel market segment, Himax is extremely excited about technological advances in the latest pure in-cell technology where it is one of the pioneers in offering one-chip solutions integrating driver IC and touch panel controllers, or TDDI. Driven by top-tier TFT-LCD makers, the industry is moving towards pure in-cell panels, which is set to start mass production in the second half of this year. Himax is in partnership with essentially all of the leading panel manufacturers in pure in-cell touch for joint technological development and expect the market to see major launches of this new technology very soon."

    "Himax is experiencing accelerating demand from panel manufacturers seeking IC vendors who can provide driver IC, TCON, Gamma OP, and PMIC as a total solution. Meanwhile, TCON is getting more and more technologically advanced, with high end models integrating sophisticated functions such as MEMC. This positions the Company very well in the 4K TV market and beyond. As the industry migrates to 8K TVs, which is already starting to take place in product development, the Company’s business and technology strength and integrated product solutions will be a significant differentiator against its competitors."

    "Himax also experienced growing market interest and deepening customer engagement in our LCOS and WLO businesses. As noted previously, the Company continues to work with several industry heavyweights in the LCOS and WLO business. These two technologies are being applied in some of their future products, ranging from head mounted displays to next generation mobile devices, and the Internet of Things. Himax is excited that LCOS and WLO should experience this inflection point in 2015."

    "Touch panel controllers, timing controllers, CMOS image sensors, and LCOS microdisplay ICs were the main contributors to the growth of the non-driver product segment in the quarter. Among non-driver products, touch controllers showed the strongest growth, nearly tripling from the same period of 2013, and growing more than 40% sequentially. CMOS Image sensor sales nearly doubled year over year."

    "Himax started small shipments of AMOLED driver IC to certain Chinese customers in Q4 2014. AMOLED is likely to be a future growth engine for its small panel driver IC business and Himax is collaborating with multiple customers both in Korea and China on AMOLED product development. It is worth mentioning that quite a few new AMOLED fabs are being built in China and the Company has the most comprehensive customer coverage there, although this will not bring in meaningful revenue contribution until later this year."

    So, after a bit slower and disappointing 1Q 2015 revenues, the back half of 2015 will really shape up well for HIMX and then really grow nicely in 2016 and 2017.
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax -3.5% on pre-earnings Credit Suisse downgrade [View news story]
    Interesting timing coming just days ahead of the 4Q 2014 Conference Call and 2015 Outlook / 1Q 2015 guidance. You would think that they would wait until after these to publish an opinion.

    And, they do this in the face of the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch selection (but probably before they heard about the Apple news).

    Still, very interesting timing.

    And, more importantly, what was the downgrade based upon?????
    Feb 9, 2015. 06:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And The Mobile Business Opportunity [View article]
    Hey Bruce,

    I completely agree that this will not HMD's will not move the needle for INTC for a few years.......and actually meant to include that in my reply to you.

    But, these sorts of investments into future potential huge disruptions are exactly what INTC needs....and what INTC missed on smartphones.

    Keep in mind that INTC has several 'irons in the fire' or investments. They have investments in HIMX (Display division which supplied/supplies Google Glass), Vizux and even Microsoft's Hololens. And, this is very wise as it is very much possible that these HMD's replace smartphones......or at least are not wirelessly 'tethered' to the smartphone and thus will need a CPU.
    Feb 3, 2015. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And The Mobile Business Opportunity [View article]
    Hey Bruce,

    Thanks for the reply. If you follow the money, INTC is definitely getting into mobile devices beyond smartphones. While the amounts of smaller, this is wise on their part.

    People also tend to oversimplify the HMD (Head Mounted Devices). In reality, there will be several distinct markets and I would submit that the casual consumer market the most fickle....and probably most cost sensitive.

    But, consider Google Glass. Even as a simple screen in front of your eyes (i.e. minimal apps), it makes sense for builders, carpenters, machinists, mechanics, etc., who need access to drawings and reference documents. And, as there is a payback in time savings (and probably accuracy), the cost at even $1,500 apiece can make economic sense.

    Consider the need for police. Again, the screen is good but also the camera for facial recognition and recording what happens. The camera with an internet connection gives real time audio/video along with being able to do a car search and driver search by simply looking at the car's license plate and driver's license. More audio/video evidence and then higher productivity by scanning licenses certainly saves money so payout is certain.

    Next up the military where hands free is key along with sharing video and sharing audio. Lives are saved here so a definite payout.

    Then, there is shared experiences and look no further than GoPro for the market size. This audio/video can help the fan get more immersed in professional sports and even entertainment.

    Then, as people use these in their profession...or see them in use...they will become more comfortable in using them themselves. But, the consumer market is fickle and cost sensitive so I would go after the other markets first.
    Feb 2, 2015. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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