Soi Cowboy's Comments Soi Cowboy's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/430967/comments Thank Chief Justice Roberts For Friday's 'Sigh Of Relief' Rally http://seekingalpha.com/article/693801/comments?source=feed#comment-6955501 6955501 Sat, 30 Jun 2012 14:57:21 -0400 Forecast: The Markets Are Still Predictable http://seekingalpha.com/article/693861/comments?source=feed#comment-6934391 6934391 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 16:56:03 -0400 EU Summit Agreement Bogus: Global Bear Market To Resume http://seekingalpha.com/article/692961/comments?source=feed#comment-6927841 6927841 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 14:11:40 -0400 The Supreme Court healthcare opinion "is a classic example of why Prediction markets have minimal value," writes Barry Ritholtz as Intrade gets it wrong again by predicting that the court would invalidate the act. "Futures markets are really a focus group unto themselves: When the group is something less representative of the target market, they get it wrong with alarming frequency." http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/391851?source=feed#comment-6888991 6888991
P.S. Bring friends cause you'll need em'. ]]> Thu, 28 Jun 2012 13:31:40 -0400
P.S. Bring friends cause you'll need em'. ]]> Delaware passed a law yesterday that could make it the first U.S. state to legalize a full range of online gambling. It's a significant step in the long-running battle between gambling companies and lawmakers over whether and how online betting should be legalized; other states are likely to follow Delaware's lead. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/390241?source=feed#comment-6872411 6872411 Thu, 28 Jun 2012 06:49:33 -0400 Will EU Leaders Successfully Repair Europe? http://seekingalpha.com/article/681951/comments?source=feed#comment-6834311 6834311
Angela Merkel is playing for time until the economic situation in France deteriorates further. Until France becomes just as desperate for a bailout as Spain and Italy, the French will stubbornly refuse to cede any fiscal sovereignty over to an EU fiscal authority. We aren't there yet, but it will eventually happen. ]]> Wed, 27 Jun 2012 03:54:32 -0400
Angela Merkel is playing for time until the economic situation in France deteriorates further. Until France becomes just as desperate for a bailout as Spain and Italy, the French will stubbornly refuse to cede any fiscal sovereignty over to an EU fiscal authority. We aren't there yet, but it will eventually happen. ]]> The Start Of The 2012 End Game Is Upon Us http://seekingalpha.com/article/680391/comments?source=feed#comment-6758311 6758311
I'd like to read your thoughts/analysis on the impending "Fiscal Cliff" situation in Washington. People are beginning to say that it could indeed drag the US into a mild recession later this year. It would be nice to hear your thoughts on that mess.]]> Mon, 25 Jun 2012 06:52:14 -0400
I'd like to read your thoughts/analysis on the impending "Fiscal Cliff" situation in Washington. People are beginning to say that it could indeed drag the US into a mild recession later this year. It would be nice to hear your thoughts on that mess.]]> The Start Of The 2012 End Game Is Upon Us http://seekingalpha.com/article/680391/comments?source=feed#comment-6757861 6757861 Mon, 25 Jun 2012 06:08:17 -0400 EU Leaders Remain Deadlocked On Eurobonds: Hedge Yourself Against A Meltdown In Europe http://seekingalpha.com/article/679811/comments?source=feed#comment-6757111 6757111 Mon, 25 Jun 2012 04:17:21 -0400 EU Leaders Remain Deadlocked On Eurobonds: Hedge Yourself Against A Meltdown In Europe http://seekingalpha.com/article/679811/comments?source=feed#comment-6750801 6750801 Sun, 24 Jun 2012 18:41:54 -0400 How Will You Know When It's Time To Sell Your Gold? http://seekingalpha.com/article/678941/comments?source=feed#comment-6736291 6736291 Sun, 24 Jun 2012 05:13:57 -0400 Prior Week Market Movers, Analysis And Lessons: Why EU Really Is Doomed http://seekingalpha.com/article/679531/comments?source=feed#comment-6736041 6736041 Sun, 24 Jun 2012 04:12:00 -0400 Prior Week Market Movers, Analysis And Lessons: Why EU Really Is Doomed http://seekingalpha.com/article/679531/comments?source=feed#comment-6735941 6735941
Here is the problem: French voters will not agree to cede more of their national sovereignty over to the EU for such a "fiscal union" regardless of what their new President Hollande wants. This is because the French prefer their 35 hour work weeks to German austerity. What the French "man on the street" wants is important because, in France, questions of greater EU integration must be put to a national referendum vote by the people. It is not like the American system where the President can enter into foreign treaties with the Senate's approval. 

The average Frenchman will simply never agree to accept German-style austerity discipline. This is why the French rejected a similar proposal (backed by Mr. Hollande) several years ago. ]]> Sun, 24 Jun 2012 03:59:33 -0400
Here is the problem: French voters will not agree to cede more of their national sovereignty over to the EU for such a "fiscal union" regardless of what their new President Hollande wants. This is because the French prefer their 35 hour work weeks to German austerity. What the French "man on the street" wants is important because, in France, questions of greater EU integration must be put to a national referendum vote by the people. It is not like the American system where the President can enter into foreign treaties with the Senate's approval. 

The average Frenchman will simply never agree to accept German-style austerity discipline. This is why the French rejected a similar proposal (backed by Mr. Hollande) several years ago. ]]> To Grexit Or Not To Grexit? http://seekingalpha.com/article/663261/comments?source=feed#comment-6520761 6520761
Further, I agree that it is easy for citizens of larger nations with much bigger economies to forget that tourism can actually be a major component of a nation's GDP. Just because Greece lacks Germany's heavy industry or the USA's silicon valley doesn't mean they have no economic activity.

Unfortunately for Greece, tourism isn't really an economic "engine". It doesn't independently create economic growth. Rather it relies on the indigenous economic growth in other nations to create the wealth and then export some of it to Greece via tourists who come for the beaches and to see ancient ruins.]]> Mon, 18 Jun 2012 02:58:36 -0400
Further, I agree that it is easy for citizens of larger nations with much bigger economies to forget that tourism can actually be a major component of a nation's GDP. Just because Greece lacks Germany's heavy industry or the USA's silicon valley doesn't mean they have no economic activity.

Unfortunately for Greece, tourism isn't really an economic "engine". It doesn't independently create economic growth. Rather it relies on the indigenous economic growth in other nations to create the wealth and then export some of it to Greece via tourists who come for the beaches and to see ancient ruins.]]> To Grexit Or Not To Grexit? http://seekingalpha.com/article/663261/comments?source=feed#comment-6499711 6499711 Sun, 17 Jun 2012 05:12:33 -0400 3 Reasons To Panic About Spain, EU, And Ramifications http://seekingalpha.com/article/663671/comments?source=feed#comment-6499571 6499571 Sun, 17 Jun 2012 04:39:04 -0400 Greek Elections: A Lower Euro On Any Result? http://seekingalpha.com/article/663091/comments?source=feed#comment-6499481 6499481
It just occurred to me that Greece is literally a nation of moochers. That concept is what their entire economy is based on . Wow. I do my best thinking at 3 am Saturday night.]]> Sun, 17 Jun 2012 04:19:50 -0400
It just occurred to me that Greece is literally a nation of moochers. That concept is what their entire economy is based on . Wow. I do my best thinking at 3 am Saturday night.]]> Investing In Greek Elections http://seekingalpha.com/article/641501/comments?source=feed#comment-6498591 6498591
The worst case scenario for the markets is another uncertain election outcome (like last month) where NOBODY can form a coalition government and we are back to square one. This is the worst case scenario for the markets because markets hate uncertainty most of all and such an outcome merely prolongs the uncertainty.

However the negative surprise of an uncertain election outcome is already baked into the cake, so to speak. Therefore a continuation of the status quo on Monday should not be a major negative shock to the markets. Add in some positive words from the G 20 summit and central bankers, and I predict that the rally continues next week]]> Sun, 17 Jun 2012 03:54:11 -0400
The worst case scenario for the markets is another uncertain election outcome (like last month) where NOBODY can form a coalition government and we are back to square one. This is the worst case scenario for the markets because markets hate uncertainty most of all and such an outcome merely prolongs the uncertainty.

However the negative surprise of an uncertain election outcome is already baked into the cake, so to speak. Therefore a continuation of the status quo on Monday should not be a major negative shock to the markets. Add in some positive words from the G 20 summit and central bankers, and I predict that the rally continues next week]]> Markets Rally Ahead Of Greek Vote http://seekingalpha.com/article/662951/comments?source=feed#comment-6477861 6477861 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 18:57:08 -0400 Saving The Euro http://seekingalpha.com/article/660971/comments?source=feed#comment-6461001 6461001 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 11:18:55 -0400 It's All About The Elections http://seekingalpha.com/article/662001/comments?source=feed#comment-6458931 6458931 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 10:48:21 -0400 The Coming Time Bomb In China http://seekingalpha.com/article/658321/comments?source=feed#comment-6458401 6458401 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 10:37:03 -0400 What They Don't Want You To Know About The National Debt - We Don't Have To Pay It Back http://seekingalpha.com/article/660111/comments?source=feed#comment-6437701 6437701 Thu, 14 Jun 2012 18:32:56 -0400 Hook 'Em Horns: The Bullish Long-Term Outlook On U.S. Stocks http://seekingalpha.com/article/656981/comments?source=feed#comment-6402371 6402371 Wed, 13 Jun 2012 21:21:14 -0400 Can The American Economy Keep Fighting Off Eurorisk? http://seekingalpha.com/article/647921/comments?source=feed#comment-6259041 6259041
However, financial market contagion is another story. If our markets continue to decline in sympathy with Europe's, then a severe bear market in this country could easily undermine this country's weak "recovery". To this end, markets are bearish because of the fear over the uncertainty of a Euro breakup. I think it's important not to confuse this cause-effect relationship.

Lastly, don't forget about our very own looming Fiscal Cliff. Nobody is focused on that problem yet. That is the next shoe to drop.]]> Sat, 09 Jun 2012 07:58:31 -0400
However, financial market contagion is another story. If our markets continue to decline in sympathy with Europe's, then a severe bear market in this country could easily undermine this country's weak "recovery". To this end, markets are bearish because of the fear over the uncertainty of a Euro breakup. I think it's important not to confuse this cause-effect relationship.

Lastly, don't forget about our very own looming Fiscal Cliff. Nobody is focused on that problem yet. That is the next shoe to drop.]]> The Most Successful Dividend Investors Of All Time http://seekingalpha.com/article/640461/comments?source=feed#comment-6193661 6193661 Thu, 07 Jun 2012 09:29:51 -0400 The Most Successful Dividend Investors Of All Time http://seekingalpha.com/article/640461/comments?source=feed#comment-6190481 6190481 Thu, 07 Jun 2012 08:22:51 -0400 The Most Successful Dividend Investors Of All Time http://seekingalpha.com/article/640461/comments?source=feed#comment-6190391 6190391 Thu, 07 Jun 2012 08:18:53 -0400 Japan's Mysterious Economy http://seekingalpha.com/article/620421/comments?source=feed#comment-5875931 5875931 Mon, 28 May 2012 15:11:10 -0400 Responding To Tyler Cowen's Concerns About Impending Euro Collapse http://seekingalpha.com/article/620241/comments?source=feed#comment-5866361 5866361 Mon, 28 May 2012 04:15:23 -0400